How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Easy answer: money.
Or a bit more explicit: lesser availability with continuing demand led to higher prices, which made it economical to use sources that previous were too expensive.

But that doesn't explain why gas prices are now back down below what they were before the war started?

[danfrodo]

Interesting bits of news from the last day or so that I am seeing here:

UKR shooting down ~75% of incoming missiles.  So Putin has to send 100 to get 25 hits, and he doesn't know which of the ones will actually hit so he has choice of flooding one area or spreading it out but only hitting a few of those many targets.  Meanwhile this causes him to burn through these missiles at a prodigious rate.  Hopefully the burn rate will make these attacks much less frequent.  Another declining asset for Putler.

Bakhmut seems like it's in no danger of falling, in fact seems the attacks are getting weaker and weaker.

And Kremmina on the brink. 

Meanwhile, the Finns are pushing for NATO to start working w UKR to build up leo2 capabilities.  HECK YES!  Might not matter until next June or July but even if war over those would be quite a good deterent to future agression.

Good news.

[kevinkin]

More endgame "analysis":

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/100-billion-for-ukraine-congress-needs-to-explain-why/

Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraine people will continue to die in large numbers. 
The stakes are too high for mistakes in our support of Ukraine. Before allocating another dollar in 2023, Congress should explain to the American people how this money advances the vital national interests of our country. Otherwise, we need a new plan.

Then the article just ends. Again, the plan must account for speed since it appears some inside the beltway are getting impatient. This is the second recent report the stares an endless war in the face, but not allowing Ukraine to lose. 

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

UKR shooting down ~75% of incoming missiles. 

They had over 80% accuracy the last time. But today's was a very big launch, so this was 75% in the face of a saturation attack, very  good indeed.

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, womble said:

"Material" corruption, the diversion of hard resources and currency, I can see as being put in the "too hard" pile, to be dealt with in a long term (possibly pie in the sky, but still well-intentioned) future. I'm thinking of the "targeting decisions", for both aid and military action: what was it that kept the West doing things that pissed off everyone-but-the-Government's-Cronies? Why did they keep on "...oblig[ing] them through all sorts of military actions which actually alienated large swaths of the population..." as The_Capt puts it? Did we just not have the intel to realise we were being played, or was it just politically impossible to either refuse the regime's priorities? And if the latter, how come the fact of this couldn't be used to support earlier extrication from an untenable, unpopular, unprofitable (in any sense) situation?

Is there any danger of this vicious circle arising in Ukraine? I get the sense that there isn't; Zelensky's regime isn't going to be turning HIMARS on different sectors of Ukraine's population in the same way that the Afghan regime used Western assets to settle scores and command dominance (like the crop burning example).

 

Well a couple of examples then  - and this is playing out now under the Turbaned beardy lot ...

Land tenure - there are folks claiming land based allegedly on titles/deeds from about 40 years ago and probably longer crawling out of the woodwork again.  So going back to the ISAF days and even now  - if you built a project to help the folks on a contested piece of land then you are going to irritate the contesting party.  Nobody has a clue who owns what which is something people in less conflict-prone countries sorted out a couple of centuries ago and had means to resolve them through a due process.

Tribal disputes - again these go back years and the tribes were perfectly happy to align with whoever would best further their interests.  Any tribe aligning itself with ISAF for instance would trigger the opposing tribe to align with the Taliban.  There are heaps of confederations, sub-tribes and the like within Afghanistan.  Again this is still playing out now, I think I've read two reports in the past fortnight about tribal disputes undergoing arbitration with the local Taliban leadership.  There was also a case this week that I read where a group of Kuchis (nomads) are demanding something in the order of $60,000 compensation from villagers in Behsud District, Maidan Wardak Province for one of their number allegedly being murdered 40 years ago.

Then you had the government ... which had to be ethnically balanced in order to stop itself ripping itself to pieces.  The majority of the ethnic figureheads protected their own.  Take 'Commander Alipoor' a fairly unpleasant ex-bus driver who commanded his own Hazara militia in Behsud District which 'protected' the resident population from the Kuchis.  That same militia also shook down travellers en-route to Bamyan and numerous other acts of unpleasantness.  He was quite rightly arrested and banged up for this and other crimes.   But he got let out because Second Vice President Danesh a Hazara lobbied for his release.  Militia belonging to this creature notoriously shot down an ANDSF helicopter in March 2021 and you've guessed it, the Second Vice President would not condemn Alipoor and Mohammad Mohaqqeq who was a senior politician at the time and also a Hazara urged people not to act too hastily.  The timing of this event was about a fortnight before districts started falling like ninepins to start the chain of events leading to the fall of Kabul five months later.  So the moral of that one was ... well who do you support because it seems they're all as bad as each other.

The whole sorry saga of Alipoor here ...

Who is Alipoor, aka Commander Shamshir? | TOLOnews

MoD: Army Helicopter in Behsud Downed by Alipoor | TOLOnews

Behsud Incident: Alipoor Continues to Evade Arrest | TOLOnews

Govt's Reaction to Alipoor Met With Cries for Caution | TOLOnews

Behsud Situation: MPs Call for Alipoor’s Arrest | TOLOnews

Behsud: Danesh Says Govt Must Ensure Justice to Stop Fighting | TOLOnews

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

More endgame "analysis":

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/100-billion-for-ukraine-congress-needs-to-explain-why/

Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraine people will continue to die in large numbers. 
The stakes are too high for mistakes in our support of Ukraine. Before allocating another dollar in 2023, Congress should explain to the American people how this money advances the vital national interests of our country. Otherwise, we need a new plan.

Then the article just ends. Again, the plan must account for speed since it appears some inside the beltway are getting impatient. This is the second recent report the stares an endless war in the face, but not allowing Ukraine to lose. 

 

 

Coupled with the military aid needing to be maintained against "weariness" is the same issue with sanctions on Russia.  Just finished reading a good piece on that in NY Times today:

Russia Is Starting to Feel Squeezed by Sanctions

It's behind a paywall, so the executive summary is that there's ample evidence to suggest sanctions are working and having an increasingly significant impact on Russia's ability to wage war.  The risk is that some group/s start to argue for loosening them for whatever reason.  The report includes interviews with several Russians, including Vladimir Milov, an exiled Russian economist and ally of Nivalny.  I think this pretty much sums up his thinking:

Quote

Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician who favors strong sanctions against Russia to stop the war in Ukraine, asked me this week to imagine I’m in the Amazon rainforest when a giant anaconda coils itself around me. What I should do, he said, is try to strangle the anaconda before it strangles me. “You don’t stop every five minutes and release your grip to see if it’s working. You just do it until the job is done.”

And this one:

Quote

Mikhail Zadornov, who was minister of finance from 1997 to 1999, recently gave an interview to RosBusinessConsulting in which he predicted a 10 percent decline next year in the volume of oil production, which “will significantly affect both the budget and the economy.” Restrictions on what Russia can import are also pinching, he said. “It is clear that many enterprises were moving by inertia on stocks of materials and equipment. Now these stocks have run out or are running out. There are no new deliveries.”

Zadornov added, “Our television says with sarcastic joy that the Europeans are freezing. I do not quite understand what is there to rejoice. In fact, we are losing the markets that we have been building since the days of the Soviet Union.”

The last bit kinda cracked me up.  It is true that Russian propaganda is, ironically, celebrating the (probable) permanent loss of its biggest source of income as some sort of victory.  That's so Russian

Steve

[sburke]

I know, stupid to ask but wtf is a defense minister doing with a PMC?

 

Shoigu deploys his Private Military Company, which competes with Wagner Group, to war against Ukraine (yahoo.com)

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Well a couple of examples then  - and this is playing out now under the Turbaned beardy lot ...

Land tenure - there are folks claiming land based allegedly on titles/deeds from about 40 years ago and probably longer crawling out of the woodwork again.  So going back to the ISAF days and even now  - if you built a project to help the folks on a contested piece of land then you are going to irritate the contesting party.  Nobody has a clue who owns what which is something people in less conflict-prone countries sorted out a couple of centuries ago and had means to resolve them through a due process.

Tribal disputes - again these go back years and the tribes were perfectly happy to align with whoever would best further their interests.  Any tribe aligning itself with ISAF for instance would trigger the opposing tribe to align with the Taliban.  There are heaps of confederations, sub-tribes and the like within Afghanistan.  Again this is still playing out now, I think I've read two reports in the past fortnight about tribal disputes undergoing arbitration with the local Taliban leadership.  There was also a case this week that I read where a group of Kuchis (nomads) are demanding something in the order of $60,000 compensation from villagers in Behsud District, Maidan Wardak Province for one of their number allegedly being murdered 40 years ago.

Then you had the government ... which had to be ethnically balanced in order to stop itself ripping itself to pieces.  The majority of the ethnic figureheads protected their own.  Take 'Commander Alipoor' a fairly unpleasant ex-bus driver who commanded his own Hazara militia in Behsud District which 'protected' the resident population from the Kuchis.  That same militia also shook down travellers en-route to Bamyan and numerous other acts of unpleasantness.  He was quite rightly arrested and banged up for this and other crimes.   But he got let out because Second Vice President Danesh a Hazara lobbied for his release.  Militia belonging to this creature notoriously shot down an ANDSF helicopter in March 2021 and you've guessed it, the Second Vice President would not condemn Alipoor and Mohammad Mohaqqeq who was a senior politician at the time and also a Hazara urged people not to act too hastily.  The timing of this event was about a fortnight before districts started falling like ninepins to start the chain of events leading to the fall of Kabul five months later.  So the moral of that one was ... well who do you support because it seems they're all as bad as each other.

The whole sorry saga of Alipoor here ...

Who is Alipoor, aka Commander Shamshir? | TOLOnews

MoD: Army Helicopter in Behsud Downed by Alipoor | TOLOnews

Behsud Incident: Alipoor Continues to Evade Arrest | TOLOnews

Govt's Reaction to Alipoor Met With Cries for Caution | TOLOnews

Behsud Situation: MPs Call for Alipoor’s Arrest | TOLOnews

Behsud: Danesh Says Govt Must Ensure Justice to Stop Fighting | TOLOnews

 

Thanks for all of that!

The lesson is that trying to build a house on shifting sand is a really sketchy proposition.  It takes a lot of careful and persistent engineering with a clear head.  I think any reasonable summary of Afghanistan would conclude that is not what happened.

As this pertains to China controlling parts or Russia, they will likely have a much easier time of it.  Primarily because hundreds of years of ruthless central authority, first under the Tzars, then Soviets, and maintained by Russian Federation, has "sorted out" the tribal situation in much of the territory we're talking about.  The Caucuses, on the other hand, are for whatever reason far more volatile.  There are still issues, for sure, but from what I can tell there's generally one major powerbroker for any one geographical area.  This means China has an obvious party to woo and once wooed won't likely get into major problems.  And even if it does, all it has to do is switch to the newly victorious group and all good for China.  The example of The Congo is an excellent one to look at.

Steve

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's so Russian

You can stitch together a sweater in a week or two. Try stitching together lost markets and supply chain relationships in the same time frame.  Although the world requires Russian energy exports, it does not have to bend over backward to get it. 

 

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, Zeleban said:

https://t.me/place_kyiv/23060

shooting down a cruise missile with the help of Igla MANPADS. Impressive explosion

About 2 seconds in you can see an earlier attempt (another Igla?) just missing.

I had to watch a few times trying to decide if it was a hit or the self-destruct of a miss, but the guys shooting the video probably could see both the missile and the Igla the whole time.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

But that doesn't explain why gas prices are now back down below what they were before the war started?

I suspect a lot of the initial price surge was to do with uncertainty: Whose gas will replace RU gas? How much can/will Germany reduce consumption? How much can/will other suppliers increase production? Is there sufficient infra in place to route supplies from other producers?

If the answer to any of those is "don't know" then the price goes up. When the answer to all of them was "don't know", then the price went up a lot.

Now the answers are known, and even negative answers still provide certainty. So the price has come down.

Edited December 29, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

President Karzai (president from 02-14) was the figurehead of a group of Afghans, largely coming out of one tribal group - the Popalzai, but to pin this on one tribal group is an oversimplification.  Regardless this group was largely centred on the Northern Alliance leadership who promptly labeled anyone they had a grudge with or saw as a threat to their position as “Taliban” and we obliged them through all sorts of military actions which actually alienated large swaths of the population. We also sent them boatloads of money which was largely stolen.

Example - poppy field eradication.  In Kandahar we were told to burn “those fields” but not to touch the ones belonging to his brother Wali, a guy so incredibly corrupt you could see his palace from the PRT while his people starved - they finally clipped him in ‘11.  So this power block of “guys who lost to the original TB in the 90s” did not really endear themselves to Afghans writ large, nor did they have any interest in actual democracy while we poured blood and treasure into the mess because…well 9/11 really.

It was a lot like South Vietnam but dustier.

If you want the real inside scoop on the last ten years ask @Combatintman, he has likely forgotten more about the inner workings of that country than anyone talking on TV will ever know.

See below

4 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Nobody fell for it - it is just so ingrained that it kept getting put in the 'too difficult basket.'  I remember a briefing in 2019 at the US Embassy given by the US Ambassador who said flat out, the biggest threat in this country other than the insurgency is corruption.  Personally, and to link it back to the thread, it was probably the number one threat because it completely undermined the ANDSF's capability among other things - we can see the same effects on the Russian military.  To give you an example of the sheer grasping greed, when COVID hit in 2020 there was reporting of about 20 officials at various levels in the Ministry of Public Health being lifted for having misappropriated ventilators donated by the international community and flogging them off in Pakistan at great personal enrichment.  

I have said this before, but you two gentlemen need to write a book! For both the historical record, and to hopefully inform whoever is in charge of the next oh bleep moment.

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

I suspect a lot of the initial price surge was to do with uncertainty: Whose gas will replace RU gas? How much can/will Germany reduce consumption? How much can/will other suppliers increase production? Is there sufficient infra in place to route supplies from other producers?

If the answer to any of those is "don't know" then the price goes up. When the answer to all of them was "don't know", then the price went up a lot.

Now the answers are known, and even negative answers still provide certainty. So the price has come down.

All true, and it has been greatly aided by VERY warm weather. 

[Zeleban]

Another video from the TERRA detachment from the Bakhmut region (English subtitles available). First, the adjustment of the fire of friendly artillery, then the attack on the village of the Ukrainian mech infantry. Then the detection of enemy artillery and its suppression. It is clearly seen how the smoke of the battlefield interferes with the correction of artillery fire from the drone

[Bulletpoint]

31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

See below

I have said this before, but you two gentlemen need to write a book! For both the historical record, and to hopefully inform whoever is in charge of the next oh bleep moment.

All true, and it has been greatly aided by VERY warm weather. 

It's warm now, but last month was very cold in Europe.

Also, uncertainty has come down, but still the amount of gas the Russians used to supply is no longer on the market.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

But that doesn't explain why gas prices are now back down below what they were before the war started?

It's a lot of factors coming together, as others have already noted.

There's no uncertainty about how much gas will come from Russia (0), the winter has been very mild here (with a two-week spell of cold - now we are expecting 20° on new year!) so consumption is low, new harbors for LNG have been built and last but not least the gas reservoirs are full. Current level is 88% and increasing.

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Lethaface said:

So how are you going to lift stuff / people? If you make the heli unmanned its a 'drone'. 

I don't think helicopters are viable in a modern threat environment.  I am oversimplifying here, but bear with me. Ukraine got it first IRIS-T system and put it down around Kherson/Odessa, burning Ka-52s started raining like snowflakes, and the Russians decided they didn't want to be on the right bank anymore. 

Now I realize the Russia doesn't have anything as good as Iris-T, but how long will it be be before China, and therefore its proxies do have something that is at least three quarters as good. How long before closest approach a helicopter can make to the FEBA goes from the 5km that even current Russian air defense seems to be able to enforce, goes to 10km, and then to 25 km. AT what point are REALLY expensive helicopters/VTOLs just not worth the investment? 

I also realize the current U.S. military relies on vertical lift for a great many missions. I am trying to point out that might not be viable going forward. Or least there ought to be a very clear eyed assessment of how viable it is. As The_Capt pointed out recently in regards to armor, that assessment probably needs to be led, at least in part, by someone who didn't spend their whole career flying choppers.

Edited December 29, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Now I realize the Russia doesn't have anything as good as Iris-T, but how long will it be be before China, and therefore its proxies do have something that is at least three quarters as good. How long before closest approach a helicopter can make to the FEBA goes from the 5km that even current Russian air defense seems to be able to enforce, goes to 10km, and then to 25 km. AT what point are REALLY expensive helicopters/VTOLs just not worth the investment? 

IMO we are there already, or just about to be. Modern SHORADS with 40+ km range, active homing missiles and ability to conduct engagement purely with targeting data coming from the network are already there, just didn't proliferate that much yet. Newer NASAMS, IRIS-T and Sky Sabre are the chief examples. Give it 3 -5 years, add radar carrying drones, operating on the very line of contact to the equation and voila! 

[NamEndedAllen]

More new tech for HIMARS coming to Ukraine:

The U.S. Army Contracting Command (ACC) at the Aberdeen Proving Ground last month put out a 'Sources Sought' notification for possible future delivery of International Field Artillery Tactical Data Systems (IFATDS) to Ukraine, as well as Taiwan and Latvia. The international export version of the Army's Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS), IFATDS would increase HIMARS lethality by providing a secure communications system stitching together incoming information from various sources across the battlefield for a better common operating picture and greater situational awareness. This would give HIMARS operators a much better idea of where to fire the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) munitions that have already been used to devastating effect by Ukraine   https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-pentagon-may-give-kyiv-advanced-himars-fire-control-system

 

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

78%. Up from average of 70-73%. Large scale attack might have helped, with increased quantity of targets?

 

More detailed report by missile types:

Kh-555/Kh-101 - 51..53

Kalibr - 8...10

Kh-22/32 - 6 (very hard to intercept)

Kh-31P - 2

One cruise missile was mistakingly shot down by Russian AD and not included to the list.

Again was documented a missile without combat warhead or this missile didn't explode. It hit a private building in Ivano-Frankivsk city (western Ukraine).

Recently in previous attacks were documented remains of several shot down Kh-55 missiles (nuclear variant of Kh-555) without nuclear warheads. Probably they were used like baits for AD distraction/detection. 

[dan/california]

FINALLY

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

FINALLY

Haha, I was going to make the same post with the same text.

Finally indeed

[mosuri]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

I know, stupid to ask but wtf is a defense minister doing with a PMC?

 

Shoigu deploys his Private Military Company, which competes with Wagner Group, to war against Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Double dipping, getting both contract money and corruption money?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Another video from the TERRA detachment from the Bakhmut region (English subtitles available). First, the adjustment of the fire of friendly artillery, then the attack on the village of the Ukrainian mech infantry. Then the detection of enemy artillery and its suppression. It is clearly seen how the smoke of the battlefield interferes with the correction of artillery fire from the drone

That was well worth the time to watch.  Very interesting from my perspective as a simulations guy.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

FINALLY

If this is true best news that I have heard all day.

Hopefully we will see Bradley IFVs and and Leopard 2 tanks operated by the AFU next year.

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I don't think helicopters are viable in a modern threat environment.  I am oversimplifying here, but bear with me. Ukraine got it first IRIS-T system and put it down around Kherson/Odessa, burning Ka-52s started raining like snowflakes, and the Russians decided they didn't want to be on the right bank anymore. 

Now I realize the Russia doesn't have anything as good as Iris-T, but how long will it be be before China, and therefore its proxies do have something that is at least three quarters as good. How long before closest approach a helicopter can make to the FEBA goes from the 5km that even current Russian air defense seems to be able to enforce, goes to 10km, and then to 25 km. AT what point are REALLY expensive helicopters/VTOLs just not worth the investment? 

I also realize the current U.S. military relies on vertical lift for a great many missions. I am trying to point out that might not be viable going forward. Or least there ought to be a very clear eyed assessment of how viable it is. As The_Capt pointed out recently in regards to armor, that assessment probably needs to be led, at least in part, by someone who didn't spend their whole career flying choppers.

Maybe you missed that Helicopters have been vulnerable to enemy fire for a long time. There was an instance in Iraq where a flight of Apache's got into an unfortunate chance encounter with what was, IIRC, a ZSU-23-2. Didn't end well.
In Somalia IIRC some people hit Black Hawks with RPGs. 

The SOP is that you don't fly helicopters into enemy AA envelope, so either stay away far from m and or stay low enough and hit & run (preferably standoff 'hit').
Ukraine has actually shown a couple instances of how 'it's done' this year, they even struck inside Russia with some ol' Mi-24s. They stayed under /outside the radar coverage and probably were lucky that there was nobody holding a Manpad or manning an AA gun directly on their route.

The biggest utilization of 'vertical lift' helicopters is and already was OUTSIDE the enemy AA envelope (logistics/etc), so if that envelope gets larger they'll have to stay further back.

I sort of don't get the 'hype' you're on about drones. Drones have been around for a long time (what is the difference between a Tomahawk cruise missile and a kamikaze drone?). I mean I do get the hype (nowadays everybody can get similar capabilities for a fraction of the cost), but it's not like everything has to be a 'drone' now or else. 

PS most drones employ 'rotary wings' for aerodynamic lift.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Lethaface