How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Another example of LDPR disciplinarian measures. Of course we shouldn't jump into conclusions that their army is broken, probably similar scenes were observed hundred times already from first months of this war.

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[Gnaeus]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I worked indirectly for Hannity for a few years. The guy says whatever Fox tells him to say. He is a shill puppet. No doubt Carlson is too. 

Don't glorify people on television and pretend like theyre the best America can offer. Don't pretend like these people have one wit of credibility in the massive range of topics they discuss. Remember it's only about views. 

Wtf? 

A bit of  a broad brush, but a good default setting. On the war, one is definitely better off here.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Gnaeus

[FancyCat]

 

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

It is more blessed to give than to receive.

It's the thought that  counts.

[Kinophile]

Kiss of death underneath the mistleTOW

[akd]

Ukrainians cleaning leftovers out of the refrigerator:

 

[sburke]

Christmas miracle: Russian MiG on fire in Belarus (yahoo.com)

 

Thank you Santa!

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainians cleaning leftovers out of the refrigerator:

 

Great video, AKD, thanks.  These are some very very lucky Russian soldiers, though they might not realize it as they are captured.  While these guys are properly fed and housed and out of danger, a whole bunch of their comrades are gonna be sick, freezing, malnourished and in very close proximity to death.

[G.I. Joe]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

Thank you Santa!

Well, we know Putin is at the very top of the Naughty List...

[JM Stuff]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

Kill from a Maxim, or kill from a AK, important is hold the line, reinforcement will than come.

JM

Edited December 25, 2022 by JM Stuff

[Beleg85]

Several Russian telegrams report that they are being heavy pounded by artillery from 3 sides in Kreminna direction. Some Ukrainian officials including Yermak also started to be very ambivalent on the issue. Of course this is still unofficial, Russians may plug the gap. Unlike before, they have some reinforcments now.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Several Russian telegrams report that they are being heavy pounded by artillery from 3 sides in Kreminna direction. Some Ukrainian officials including Yermak also started to be very ambivalent on the issue. Of course this is still unofficial, Russians may plug the gap. Unlike before, they have some reinforcments now.

Some reports even state that the city itself is being fought for, or that it's already taken by the UA. Fingers crossed for ZSU, that would be a hell of a Christmas present!

[akd]

Interesting assessment of drone bombing:

Quote

We damage armour pieces. Sometimes we are lucky to destroy them. In general it takes 5-6 grenades to take out Russian armour.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by akd

[Beleg85]

And "something" is taking place again at Engels airbase. Smoke incident or airstrike.

Busy Christmas for Ukrainians.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 12/25/2022 at 2:06 AM, danfrodo said:

Enough of this use blather LLF.  It's time for you to put your money on the table:  what do you see happening in Ukraine over the next month or so?   You seem to do a good job of looking at multiple sources, what do you think is coming?  (I only use dailykos summaries because they are pretty good aggregation of info and I can get a good daily update in one place)

My take:  I think that the bad soldiers + bad logistics + bad command will lead to some sectors being very weak and they'll collapse under pressure, as sick/untrained/hungry/demoralized/unmotivated conscripts run away.  Maybe this is happening now along Svatove front.  The only thing saving RU is the mud.  RU defense lines will be very strong in some areas but if the flanks collapse it's just worthless.  Germans saw this in WW2, where they just couldn't man a proper front.  They'd have some areas that withstood all comers, but then other sectors would collapse leading to crisis.  I think RU is going to be losing badly between now & February.

Merry Christmas to all. This is a very good thread.

2. Dedovshchina, as always. Actually, I disagree with ChrisO (a rarity). This is neither here nor there wrt the effectiveness or motivation of the men. They merely expect it; they might even 'like' this officer if he is in other respects reliable and is as hard on himself as on them.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Merry Christmas to all. This is a very good thread.

2. Dedovshchina, as always. Actually, I disagree with ChrisO (a rarity). This is neither here nor there wrt the effectiveness or motivation of the men. They merely expect it; they might even 'like' this officer if he is in other respects reliable and is as hard on himself as on them.

 

 

So very much depends on things we don't know. If they were three day mobiks grabbed off the street, and then frozen and starved for a month, i am guessing their next move is white flag the next time there us a Ukrainian to wave it at. If they are part of something that resembles a functioning unit it could go a 100% the other way. There is just to much context we don't have

[Battlefront.com]

Where I'm at it is still December 25th, so I still have time to wish you all a Merry Christmas.

I try not to think about war on this day, but until this war is over there won't be a day that I don't.  It is my hope that next Christmas I'll be back to my traditional thoughts of the day... thinking about great food

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

On 12/25/2022 at 2:06 AM, danfrodo said:

Enough of this use blather LLF.  It's time for you to put your money on the table:  what do you see happening in Ukraine over the next month or so?   You seem to do a good job of looking at multiple sources, what do you think is coming?  (I only use dailykos summaries because they are pretty good aggregation of info and I can get a good daily update in one place)

My take:  I think that the bad soldiers + bad logistics + bad command will lead to some sectors being very weak and they'll collapse under pressure, as sick/untrained/hungry/demoralized/unmotivated conscripts run away.  Maybe this is happening now along Svatove front.  The only thing saving RU is the mud.  RU defense lines will be very strong in some areas but if the flanks collapse it's just worthless.  Germans saw this in WW2, where they just couldn't man a proper front.  They'd have some areas that withstood all comers, but then other sectors would collapse leading to crisis.  I think RU is going to be losing badly between now & February.

Boxing day here in the Far East.  This is for you, @BFCElvis and for our other fine hosts and forum alte kameraden....

In answer to your query DF, since you asked I might glibly observe as follows: 

'Every moment Ivan squats in the mud (static fronts) he gets _________'

a. *Stronger* in the sense of more capable at field survival, as his frontline infantry self-selects into combat effective warrior bands who can use the same infiltration and bushwhack squad level tactics the UA have been using on them to date.  Better at digging in, better at patrolling/local situation awareness, less AFV-tied, better with rockets, cleverer in use of mines. Their total front line bayonet strength is going to reach parity with UA again shortly, if it hasn't already. 

And never ever forget, Russia has 3.5 x the population of Ukraine. That hasn't counted to date, but over extended timeframes I think it will matter (cf. prior discussion on 'tipping points' for losses)

b. *Weaker* in terms of the ongoing degradation and depletion of matériel, from ammo stocks to barrels to drones, all the kit our host and our forum experts and external Osint sources have been flagging since late Feb. But I don't see that yielding a 'slowly then all at once' breakdown in combat capability or will or what have you.

Rather, as others have said, I see a reversion of the RUA back into a 1940s infantry army, largely incapable of sustaining deep attacks, but on defence still quite lethal, and capable of extracting an increasing blood toll for every meter of ground.  Blood toll from an enemy with a recruiting pool c.1/3 their size....

Can the UA itself evolve to dismantle (or bite off large chunks of defended territory from) such an army without paying an extravagant blood price?  I am not seeing how that happens.

I also continue to worry about a steady stream of basic but useful Chinese tech (comms, sensors, etc.) making its way to the Russians, compounding the lethality of that 1940s warfare style.

IF that is all allowed to become true, then sadly, this war is going to freeze on roughly its current lines for 6-9 more bloody months, until a cease fire is at last reluctantly declared. Russia will keep most of the land bridge (grudgingly placing the nuke plant under UN control, 'UNFUK' lol, ht @Combatintman) in return for evacuating (vulnerable and depopulated) northeast Luhansk, lick its wounds and await a rematch, or a new (but still warmongering) 'Good Tsar' or both.  East Ukraine will remain economically crippled, a no mans land.

I am disappointed (or suspect/hope for a deception) when Gen. Zaluzhny says he doesn't have or need another 200,000 UA reservists trained up and ready.  Because while 600 tanks is what he'd like to retake the land bridge today, that window is likely closing. If he waits until the end of spring rasputitsa he could well end up with 600 flaming wrecks and little to show for it, as many Ivans will have by then figured out how to fight like VDV (or Ukrainians).

I have no solid view one way or another on home front collapse, regime change, etc.  Like Zaluzhny, I hope for it but don't count on it.

FWIW, just some guy on the interwebz. You asked.

Edited December 26, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Washington Post article on the problems Russia faces with its infrastructure:

Quote

Analysts say that infrastructure-related disruptions could soon multiply as Western sanctions start to bite, and that ongoing, preexisting problems are adding to growing popular discontent about the consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The frustrations some residents have expressed over deteriorating infrastructure in many Russian cities was summed up in a recent Instagram post by Omsk Ogo, a civil society group in the Siberian city of Omsk, where winter temperatures fall to minus-4 degrees Fahrenheit.

“On TV they say that Europe is freezing, but no one mentions that in Omsk 40,000 houses do not receive gas,” the post said, referring to a 2017 report that found that thousands of homes in the city still use coal or firewood for heating. “The rest of the homes have to regularly turn off the heating, because the infrastructure for utilities has been totally worn out.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/25/russia-infrastructure-volgograd-perm-neglect/

The content of this article should not be a surprise to anybody here.  It documents a number of challenges for Putin that he is unlikely to address in any meaningful way:

1. Much of Russia's infrastructure is from Soviet times, which wasn't great to start with.
2. Corruption and "can kicking" have resulted in maintenance and replacement needs being far less than they need to be.
3. Money pours into Moscow, but only trickles into other cities.  The further away it is from Moscow, the less people it has, the less attention paid.  This is to the point where some places are becoming difficult to live in.
4. What money does go into these areas is not very effective due to corruption and extremely poor standards.  It's a double whammy because if something on paper is crap it's going to suck even more when corruption is added into the equation.
5. A vast amount of Russia's infrastructure relies upon components purchased from outside of Russia.  Sanctions are making it difficult to keep existing things running, not to mention having less capacity to do anything new.
6. Prioritization of spending on military and internal security needs was already leaving too little for infrastructure.  Now with less income and more expenses on the military side, the gap between what is needed and what is spent will suddenly become much larger.

I've been saying this since the first week of the war, so obviously not surprising to me

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

22 hours ago, Kinophile said:

From CEPA, ref long term impact of RUS lower rank officer casualties. 

Point 3 is particularly salient. 

I'm correspondingly curious about how "joint" trained are UKR officers? 

Really good stuff here, many thanks....

[Est.] half of all competent ground-fighting company commanders in the Russian force in Ukraine are either KIA or WIA.

The absence of a competent Russian non-commissioned officer corps compounds systematic reliance on junior officers [who in turn rely on their company commanders]. 

Company commanders lead the fight by synchronizing fires, movement, and supporting units. A company commander is also the highest-level officer who knows each soldier in their unit...

A capable officer at this level represents a  prolonged investment in education, training, and experience....If those officers are lacking, mobilized troops will not be able to form mission-capable units

Russian officers tend to be specialists and spend their whole career in one branch, often on a single weapon system.

10 hours ago, Artkin said:

I worked indirectly for Hannity for a few years. The guy says whatever Fox tells him to say. He is a shill puppet. No doubt Carlson is too. 

...So you're pleading 'not guilty by reason of Sean Hannity'? [/rimshot]

On 12/25/2022 at 6:59 AM, Beleg85 said:

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/12/how-the-battle-for-the-donbas-shaped-ukraines-success/

I don't think it was posted before.

Good piece, if a touch backward looking and shy on prognostication. Still worth reading. Kofman reassessing.  Coauthor Rob Lee has been out in front with the Osint corps since the start.

Russia’s current strategy appears to be focused on buying time to raise a larger force composed of mobilized soldiers with better training and equipment than those who have already been deployed. 

The Russian military will now have a much higher force density to terrain ratio, and can conserve ammunition if it pursues a largely defensive strategy.

Ammunition availability might be the single most important factor that determines the course of the war in 2023, and that will depend on foreign stockpiles and production. As it stands, the Russian military will struggle to restore offensive potential, but it can drag out a stubborn defense. Ukraine appears advantaged long term, but the longer the war goes on, the greater the uncertainty, and advantage is not predictive of outcomes.

****

Good clear-minded thread on Sino-Russian ties here.  Have no illusions about how quickly and massively China Inc. can ramp up mass production of, well, pretty much anything (except super leading edge stuff, temporarily) once it puts its mind to it. I live in this world, every day.

The West greedily shipped the Arsenal of Democracy overseas for a mess of WalMart pottage and this is the consequence.  I pray the Ukrainians don't pay the price for that.

IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. 

China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP).  From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance.

The 'pen to write that global playbook' is Made In China, guys.

Edited December 26, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

Merry Christmas to all and I hope you all enjoyed your hamster dinners (callback to early post on RU propaganda post on this thread).  We put on dinner for 19 (was 8 planned by others had flights cancelled and came back home yesterday to no groceries).  Fortunately we found enough hamsters for everyone

While most of US is in deep freeze the pacific NW went from terrible ice storm friday to 60F(14C) today, it was bizarre.  Sadly, Ukraine weather still above freezing each day for coming week it looks like.  So Putin remains saved by the mud. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Boxing day here in the Far East.  This is for you, @BFCElvis and for our other fine hosts and forum alte kameraden....

In answer to your query DF, since you asked I might glibly observe as follows: 

'Every moment Ivan squats in the mud (static fronts) he gets _________'

a. *Stronger* in the sense of more capable at field survival, as his frontline infantry self-selects into combat effective warrior bands who can use the same infiltration and bushwhack squad level tactics the UA have been using on them to date.  Better at digging in, better at patrolling/local situation awareness, less AFV-tied, better with rockets, cleverer in use of mines. Their total front line bayonet strength is going to reach parity with UA again shortly, if it hasn't already. 

And never ever forget, Russia has 3.5 x the population of Ukraine. That hasn't counted to date, but over extended timeframes I think it will matter (cf. prior discussion on 'tipping points' for losses)

b. *Weaker* in terms of the ongoing degradation and depletion of matériel, from ammo stocks to barrels to drones, all the kit our host and our forum experts and external Osint sources have been flagging since late Feb. But I don't see that yielding a 'slowly then all at once' breakdown in combat capability or will or what have you.

Rather, as others have said, I see a reversion of the RUA back into a 1940s infantry army, largely incapable of sustaining deep attacks, but on defence still quite lethal, and capable of extracting an increasing blood toll for every meter of ground.  Blood toll from an enemy with a recruiting pool c.1/3 their size....

Can the UA itself evolve to dismantle (or bite off large chunks of defended territory from) such an army without paying an extravagant blood price?  I am not seeing how that happens.

I also continue to worry about a steady stream of basic but useful Chinese tech (comms, sensors, etc.) making its way to the Russians, compounding the lethality of that 1940s warfare style.

IF that is all allowed to become true, then sadly, this war is going to freeze on roughly its current lines for 6-9 more bloody months, until a cease fire is at last reluctantly declared. Russia will keep most of the land bridge (grudgingly placing the nuke plant under UN control, 'UNFUK' lol, ht @Combatintman) in return for evacuating (vulnerable and depopulated) northeast Luhansk, lick its wounds and await a rematch, or a new (but still warmongering) 'Good Tsar' or both.  East Ukraine will remain economically crippled, a no mans land.

I am disappointed (or suspect/hope for a deception) when Gen. Zaluzhny says he doesn't have or need another 200,000 UA reservists trained up and ready.  Because while 600 tanks is what he'd like to retake the land bridge today, that window is likely closing. If he waits until the end of spring rasputitsa he could well end up with 600 flaming wrecks and little to show for it, as many Ivans will have by then figured out how to fight like VDV (or Ukrainians).

I have no solid view one way or another on home front collapse, regime change, etc.  Like Zaluzhny, I hope for it but don't count on it.

FWIW, just some guy on the interwebz. You asked.

I don't think we can assume anything about how winter is going to go or not go until the ground really freezes. It just hasn't yet. The Ukrainians are not going get a bunch of people killed trying a large scale attack in the mud. It is at least possible most of the Russians who are that stupid are already dead. At least the the ones who would use up their good troops that way. Five hundred mobiks a day just seems to be the new normal. So large scale stuff is just on weather hold. After a month of frozen ground we will have a much better idea of who has what left.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Merry Christmas to all and I hope you all enjoyed your hamster dinners (callback to early post on RU propaganda post on this thread).  We put on dinner for 19 (was 8 planned by others had flights cancelled and came back home yesterday to no groceries).  Fortunately we found enough hamsters for everyone

While most of US is in deep freeze the pacific NW went from terrible ice storm friday to 60F(14C) today, it was bizarre.  Sadly, Ukraine weather still above freezing each day for coming week it looks like.  So Putin remains saved by the mud. 

Yeah, weather in Seattle has been bad in four separate ways.

Regarding the mobiks having a few weeks to sit around it is worth pointing out that all the time the Russians spent sitting around in Belarus before the war started did bad things to their effectiveness. I don't think that starting with vastly lower quality troops, or actually being shelled, is going to make it work out any better this winter.

[FancyCat]

15 hours ago, poesel said:

You are totally right. I glossed over this a bit. There was a contract and a need and that outweighed morals. The reasoning then was that Russia couldn't buy anything useful at this point, and it would hurt us more than them. Not our finest hour.

Eh, I am actually of the opinion it is not totally essential to stop Russian exports to stop their foreign currency losses. Due to the nature of Russian exports have significant effect on worldwide pricing and costs, I'm more than fine with Russia stop exporting and ensuring the world's most vulnerable and poorest aren't too effected.

In return the west should provide significant western equipment and aid but I digress.

14 hours ago, Butschi said:

At least from our western point of view Russia would have been better off with the pipelines still open. They lost money and an immense potential for blackmailing Germany or at least splitting German society (and let's not forget Denmark for instance).

They were betting on Europe freezing and being forced to approve NS2. Didn't happen but feels like Russia was expecting Europe to fold soon enough this winter.

[FancyCat]