How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Very worrying, Dan. And one of the reasons why Germany tries to keep it's options open. The world can change within 24 hours

Actually, that seems like a reason for the Germans and other West Europeans to develop a defence industry not dependent on US conventional arsenal, rather than exploring the options of cozying up to a bloody dictator waging a war of aggression. Even more so now, as by this moment in time, the Russians have repeatedly presented the war in the Ukraine as a war with the West. The "diplomatic option" without getting the RUS at least back to the 24.02.2022 borders would be for many intents and purposes a surrender on terms, not only of the UKR, but also of Germany.

[Huba]

Interesting data point:

 

[kevinkin]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

limits the scope of the problem. 

That's why I think layer one is at the supply chain level - R&D, procurement and production. It's not very sexy to discuss since it involves a lot of cloak and dagger maneuvering. Even though the cat is out of the bag today, the idea is to make anything the kids can get there hands on and/or internally produced obsolete or cost prohibited in 5 years. We would have a club like the nuclear club. Except the threshold to use nukes is orders and orders of magnitude greater than China handing out drones to kids to conduct their dirty work. But, the parts of these new drones would be more traceable given they would monitored by just a few technological nations. Heck, you might even get some sort of treaty in place. 

[Beleg85]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We don't know the balance sheet on Kherson. If Russia has burned the last of the pre war VDV to hold Kherson for another six weeks it was a VERY bad trade. The average quality of the Russian army started out low, but it is currently falling very quickly towards some level that is so low I am struggling for words for it. Sooner or later that is going to cost the Russians dearly.

No disagreement here. But:

1) regardless of how many paras and marines can be extracted from the other bank, getting them to Zaporozhie is a bonus, not hindrance for the RUS there; at the very least, they will reconstitute them into a couple of BTGs or use them to train mobiks;

2) Kherson's costing the RUS dearly would be the effect of hanging onto it for too long, not withdrawing from it; one more reason to relocate as soon as the RUS find their optimal moment (I think this will happen when Cherson is fortified for the mobiks to make their heroic final stand there and  some strong winds and autumn storms happen which will make drone operations difficult and so facilitate withdrawal over the river).

As regards the butcher's bill balance on Kherson, of course this is a guess. Mine, to make a historical analogy, is that this time Verdun has ended somewhat in between Falkenheyn's original plan and Prince Ruprecht historical execution. The defender has suffered more than the historical approx. 10% excess casualties, maybe 20% over the UKR. They were very tough battles for the UKR too.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Colonel Andrey Bespalov, tank troops, unit and data of death unknown

Lt.colonel (retired) Viacheslav Zangiyev, former commander of helicopter regiment, since 2019 was a chief of the Center of Aviation technic and weapon science&research, retired in 2021. Enlisted to Wagner PMC. Got lost on 31st of Oct, when Wagner's Mi-8MTKO (handed over to Wagner from Belarus) was shot down near Spirne village (Bakmut area)

Rank unknown, likely major - Viktor Zhydayev, deputy commander of regional volunteer battalion "Osetia" (Northern Osetia). He was crack soldier, having experience of many local conflicts. Before "Osetia" battalion  was a member of PMC Wagner. Data of death unknown.

Lt.colonel Ivan Kardashov, battalion commander, was killed on 20th of October

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Seen some discussion around Kherson and whether Russia is truly retreating or not and whether Ukraine is making a mistake by not contesting the retreat by advancing rapidly to pin the Russians down, i just want to point out, the most important goal should be the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson, and Ukraine retaking the whole right bank of the Dnipro. 

 

That is debatable, and moreover, it is entirely for the RUS to decide whether to upset that equilibrium by withdrawing pretty much from everywehere other than Kherson, leave some low quality troops in the city itself and force the UKR to demolish the Ukrainian city block by block with artillery to take it back. For the Russian then to make a propaganda point that UKR are no better than RUS as regards the treatment of civilian cities, and actually are worse because the RUS took the civilan population out of Kherson, and UKR did not evacuate Mariupol.

I think it is just a combination of casualty aversion (even when withdrawing, the RUS still have enough artillery in other locations to fire defensive barrages, and the VVS are uncharacteristically active in the Kherson area) and - possibly unappreciated - a lot of  landmines being left by RUS. This is anecdotal, but many reports about the Kharkiv offensive, where there was a significant pause in the middle of operation, explained that pause by the need to clear up landimnes. Or described situations of people being blown up on mines, and the rest slowing down because of that. For the life of me, I cannot understand why any country bordering Russia would ever sign that idiotic Ottawa Convention. Our and Ukrainian politicians who got us on the signatory list should be tried for treason, seriously.

[dan/california]

Russia is losing the artillery battle around Kherson now. Ukraine has a lot of systems that are basically operating from out of the Russians reach, and are just hammering them. Maybe better U.S military drones directing some of the fire, too. We won't know what really happened for a while. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

The Germans never solved microwave radar countermeasures, and it is not the least of the reasons they lost the war.

Could the radar pick up Schnorchel? I do not think so. So possibly they solved the problem, but in any case too late

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

No disagreement here. But:

1) regardless of how many paras and marines can be extracted from the other bank, getting them to Zaporozhie is a bonus, not hindrance for the RUS there; at the very least, they will reconstitute them into a couple of BTGs or use them to train mobiks;

2) Kherson's costing the RUS dearly would be the effect of hanging onto it for too long, not withdrawing from it; one more reason to relocate as soon as the RUS find their optimal moment (I think this will happen when Cherson is fortified for the mobiks to make their heroic final stand there and  some strong winds and autumn storms happen which will make drone operations difficult and so facilitate withdrawal over the river).

As regards the butcher's bill balance on Kherson, of course this is a guess. Mine, to make a historical analogy, is that this time Verdun has ended somewhat in between Falkenheyn's original plan and Prince Ruprecht historical execution. The defender has suffered more than the historical approx. 10% excess casualties, maybe 20% over the UKR. They were very tough battles for the UKR too.

I may not have been clear the first time, but this is what I actually meant. Russia has overpaid for every week they have stayed in Kherson since the beginning of September. I really don't think surrounded conscripts in Kherson city are going to fight like the foreign legion did in Severodonetsk. Who I will point out were not surrounded, and withdrew in good order.

6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Could the radar pick up Schnorchel? I do not think so. So possibly they solved the problem, but in any case too late

The range was less, but I recall that it could. And trying to operate mostly on Schnorchel severely reduced the U boats effectiveness. Apparently they had issues in higher seas, the float valve would close to prevent sucking water and diesel would try to suck  every cubic meter of air in the boat. Apparently it would feel like your ear drums were being sucked out of your head, among other unpleasantness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submarine_snorkel#:~:text=Although snorkels allowed submarines to,damaging or breaking the tube.

[sburke]

not sure why anyone thinks the UA will have to fight block by block for Kherson.  The Russians try to make it a fortified city with no supplies coming across that river once UA artillery closes in?  Who is gonna hold it, the cannon fodder?

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

not sure why anyone thinks the UA will have to fight block by block for Kherson.  The Russians try to make it a fortified city with no supplies coming across that river once UA artillery closes in?  Who is gonna hold it, the cannon fodder?

So basically Putin's plan now is to stall as long as possible while trying to reduce the losses by pulling out valuable men & machines while pushing in his lowest quality troops?   That's what it's looking like.  Hopefully all of those captured chmobiks will get to call home and at least get public sentiment tilting in the right direction, not that that's probably worth anything. 

[Beleg85]

Interesting thread with some satellite pictures (author confused right/left bank of the river):

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting thread with some satellite pictures (author confused right/left bank of the river):

 

I mean I guess they have no choice ( the Russians that is ) except to prepare such lines - but I would expect the Ukrainians if they did decide to push on would be coming  southwards out of the Zaporizhzhia area  making all these  defensive lines defunct ?

 

[Artkin]

6 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I mean I guess they have no choice ( the Russians that is ) except to prepare such lines - but I would expect the Ukrainians if they did decide to push on would be coming  southwards out of the Zaporizhzhia area  making all these  defensive lines defunct ?

 

That was my only thought.

[Battlefront.com]

I get that Russia needs to fortify the right (eastern) bank to some extent, but it's really not that important to much in the way of trenches.  It's far too difficult a crossing for anything other than raiding parties.  And if Ukraine was interested in that, it would probably be further upstream anyway.  I think it's great that Russia is wasting time, opportunity, and money on "cope lines".

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I get that Russia needs to fortify the right (eastern) bank to some extent, but it's really not that important to much in the way of trenches.  It's far too difficult a crossing for anything other than raiding parties.  And if Ukraine was interested in that, it would probably be further upstream anyway.  I think it's great that Russia is wasting time, opportunity, and money on "cope lines".

Steve

It is rapidly approaching the point where all they have left is copium, and cannon meat. When the cannon meat, I mean mobiks, i mean fertilizer in waiting... figures that out things will get more interesting.

[LongLeftFlank]

Z beatings will continue until.... 

Catch-ZZ? 

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Z beatings will continue until.... 

Catch-ZZ? 

 

OMG that is funny!

[Bulletpoint]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I get that Russia needs to fortify the right (eastern) bank to some extent

I think the right bank of the river is meant to be the western bank?

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the right bank of the river is meant to be the western bank?

Yes. It flows north to south.

[Haiduk]

A thread about Russian loitering munition Lantset from one of the top Ukrainian specialist in UAV

I translate most important things:

- Lantset is disposable drone and it hasn't regular procedure of landing

- Lantsets guide not so through own TV-guidance system, but mostly from other drone Orlan-10 or ZALA, which spots a target and transmitted signal to operator. Without "external" drone, which watch above, Lantsets would be used almost blindly, because their TV-camera can see on short range only and their launch without surviellance drone is just "usage at hazard" or has a sense if operators 100 % know where the target, because dron has limited time of flying (about 40 minutes)

- Thus, one of the methods to fight with Lantsets is timely spotting at destroying of surviellance drones

-   Lantsets can be targeted by GPS, like Shakheds, but their accuracy in this case much worse, than in Iranian drones.

- Lantset has lightweight warhead, so operators have to choice direction and zone of strike to inflict maxiumum damage - this is mostly possible only with a help of surviallance drone too

- Branches of trees can be obstacle for Lantsets or steer it from course, so hiding in forests and tree-plants can raise your chances not to be attacked

- When Lantset locks on his target you can't suppress it with EW. EW supression has a sense only before it to  supress it comm channel, though in that case it can attack by GPS/GNSS coordinates, but like was told above, its accuracy will be not enough.

- When Lantset loked on, it sharply raises speed and attacks - but in this phase it engine become very loud (it already heard from several hundreds meters) and crew has about 5-10 seconds to escape

- Lantset suspiciously similar to Israel Hero, the difefernce only in dimensions, maybe this drone was designed thanking to Israeli UAV technologies (Russia and Israel had close cooperation in this sphere).

- During initial phase of war usage of Lantsets was episodical, peobably because the were produced in small number, but during the summer, ZALA likely could expand production and now Russians stored much more number of drones. And probably they haste to use it until the sky is still has enough number of clear days - cloud weather interfere to surviellance drones and this reduces effeciency of Lantsets

Edited November 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

not sure why anyone thinks the UA will have to fight block by block for Kherson.  The Russians try to make it a fortified city with no supplies coming across that river once UA artillery closes in?  Who is gonna hold it, the cannon fodder?

In Severodonetsk it was mostly UKR  territorials. With different levels of training, which may encourage Russians to try the same with chmobiks. The obvious difference is motivation, but so far chmobiks when put in contact with the enemy did not surrender en masse, but tried to fight. They did badly, but made the Ukrainians expend time, materiel and men.  On the other hand, if UKR do not storm Cherson and do not blast it to oblivion with artillery, the would have to starve the garrison out the old way, even discounting the odd ferry sneaking across Dnieper (in Severodonetsk all bridges were down at some point, yet materiel was coming through on boats).

So in each scenario except for Russsians running away without significant fight, garrisoning Cherson with low quality troops as sacrificial rearguard is better than cleanly leaving the entire Cherson bridgehead, which is in turn better, then trying to stay in the bridgehead indefinitely. Which is why I think the RUS will take that options (that, plus the rumblings about fortifying Cherson & some preparatory sad tales about the new Panfilovtsy emerging in the Kherson bridgehead in RUS military blogs)

[Probus]

A link to the rebellion in the Dr Zhivago scene in @LongLeftFlank's link earlier:

Hopefully will happen soon in Ukraine.