How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

New York Times huh. Thank you for reminding me why I don't waste money on a monthly subscription to read such "wisdom".

First the appeasers told us that arming Ukraine would not help Ukraine fight this war now, "Ukraine’s battlefield successes could go too far." No winning with these people.

 

it is an opinion piece.  There are actually a number of good articles from actual NYT reporters today.

for example articles

on the fighting in Bakhmut )2 articles)

decline of Russia as an arms exporter

Wagner opening a new center in St Petersburg and what that could mean

Impact and condition for Ukrainian refugees in Europe

 

I didn't even see that guest opinion piece.

 

2 US senators were just in Ukraine reaffirming US commitment for the long haul

Edited November 6, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

New York Times huh. Thank you for reminding me why I don't waste money on a monthly subscription to read such "wisdom".

First the appeasers told us that arming Ukraine would not help Ukraine fight this war now, "Ukraine’s battlefield successes could go too far." No winning with these people.

 

It's an op ed, not the editorial board.  I can't stand the editorial board chief, Bret Stephens, an arrogant *** -- he recently decided that climate change is probably real, letting us all know it's now OK to believe in the science that's been totally clear to anyone w a brain for over 20 years.  But the NYT editorial board is usually good -- this is not them.  Hopefully there will be an op ed to counter this view. 

edit: ooops, pre-empted by SBurke on this. 

Edited November 6, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

It's an op ed, not the editorial board.  I can't stand the editorial board chief, Bret Stephens, an arrogant *** -- he recently decided that climate change is probably real, letting us all know it's now OK to believe in the science that's been totally clear to anyone w a brain for over 20 years.  But the NYT editorial board is usually good -- this is not them.  Hopefully there will be an op ed to counter this view. 

edit: ooops, pre-empted by SBurke on this. 

All good info.  I'd actually be more worried about the ad Nosferatu, I mean Stephen Miller has been running during the world series.

Oh and even the GOP knew climate change was real well over 30 years ago.

Quote

Back in 1988, former Rhode Island Congresswoman Claudine Schneider testified on Capitol Hill to push a bill focused on climate change. She served in the House, as Rhode Island's first female member of Congress, from 1981 until 1991 — and she was a Republican.

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by sburke

[Haiduk]

108th separate battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade repelled another attempt of enemy advance in Spirne village, Luhansk oblast (29 km NE from Bakhmut). At the end of video you can see bodies of 29 Russian or LDPR fighters, which UKR soldiers gathered after the battle. Also two tanks and probably BMP were destroyed. One more tank is seen on the road after explosion by mine, but this is probably recent loss. 

PS. In comments already noted as minimum half of video is about the recent fighting in July  

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

108th separate battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade repelled another attempt of enemy advance in Spirne village, Luhansk oblast (29 km NE from Bakhmut). At the eand of video you can see bodies of 29 Russian or LDPR fighters, which UKR soldiers gathered after the battle. Also two tanks were destroyed.

Brutal. Possibly some bigger failed attack, unless they connected different videos.

 

https://twitter.com/nowakkmichal/status/1589288870876626944

Another sad video of Russian ambush, no tumbnail. Ukrainian tank driving directly under gun of Russian one. One crewmember tried to escape, but apparently was consumed by fire.

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

Typical Russian negligence and incompetence - memorial plaque in honor of the pilot captain Rabazan Radzhabov (31st fighter regiment), who was killed during UKR Tochka-U strike on Millerovo airfield on 25th Feb. On the  background of plaque art designer has placed... UKR Su-27. It didn't bother anyone

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

In my opinion, this is the kind of policy you get when you have a greater concern about Russia losing than you do about Russia being stopped, deterred,  neutralized, and punished. 

If Ukraine had been given more support earlier on, the chances of hitting a long-protracted stalemate, slowing down the world economy, would be much less than they are now.

I want to assume that this pressure on Ukraine to show a willingness to negotiate is not being applied by its more spirited allies in the Baltic states, Poland, and the UK.  But I would be interested in finding out.

I'm sure China is watching what develops from here on out with interest w.r.t. Taiwan.

A nuclear armed state like Russia will never be neutralized. Let’s just get that out the way. Next, Putin is very unlikely to be overthrown, 3rd, the only goal is for Ukraine to regain all lands, as a result, anything that allows Ukraine to pursue that goal, including negotiations is good. Nothing has indicated the talks need to have Ukraine say anything but “get off our land” as a condition for ceasefire in the same manner, Russia spent the prior talks giving the same unrealistic conditions for peace.

[Beleg85]

Confirmation of muscovite lossess on Pavlivka direction:

 

[Haiduk]

SBU "Alfa" Special Forces hit three Russian BMP-3, gathered in one point with 120 mm mortar. Claimed three destroyed, but more likely destroyed only one or two, the third is damaged by close explosions

Location - near Yahidne village, Kharkiv oblast.

 

[Zeleban]

The command of the enemy troops began to step up efforts in the Ugledar direction, trying to strengthen the combat capabilities of their forward units, which are now trying to break through Pavlovka to Ugledar, as well as simultaneously attacking from the side of the village. Nikolskoye.

Apparently, on the left flank of this strike tactical group of the enemy, concentrated in the Ugledar direction, the enemy 2 days ago brought into battle the forces of the 40th separate brigade of marines (at least up to 2 reinforced companies). They attacked the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Novomayorskoye - Prichistovka and Shevchenko - Prichistovka ... unsuccessfully.

It is obvious that the enemy's immediate goal of his offensive in this direction is the desire to simultaneously bypass Ugledar from the west and northeast (this is evidenced by his stubborn attacks in the area southeast of Novomikhailovka). The most probable immediate target of the enemy in this sector of the front is the Pavlovka-Konstantinovka road (somewhere in the Vodyane region).

As far as I understand, in this way, the enemy command is thinking of forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to retreat, at least along this path, and thus create favorable conditions for themselves to further advance both to Kurakhovo and Marinka, and to Bolshaya Novoselka.

But so far he hasn't succeeded. In the Novomikhailovka area, he only managed to capture a couple of our platoon strongholds, southeast of the village, but they never made their way to him. In turn, in the Pavlovka area, he also managed to occupy only the southeastern part of the village, after which the average daily rate of the enemy’s offensive somehow dropped sharply to zero.

Let me remind you who forgot: the enemy is operating here with forces of up to about 4-5 BTGr, consolidated and distributed along the directions in the 2nd tactical groups - Ugledarskaya and Novomikhailovskaya. They consist of the forces of the 29th CAA (1 BTgr from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade), the 68th Army Corps (up to 1 “consolidated” BTGr from the 18th Machine Gun and Artillery Division and the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade) and several divisions of the company- battalion level from the 1st AK of the people's militia of the DPR (3rd and 5th motorized rifle brigade, 11th MRR, 2 "rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve", partly abr "Kalmius" + some kind of special unit "Ministry of Internal Affairs dnr"). All this "bombas herd" is also reduced to tactical groups in areas. In addition, units of the 810 separate brigade of the marines act as separate "shock" tactical groups, which are just trying to completely capture Pavlovka.

But it would be naive to hope that after the enemy's offensive encountered the first difficulties in the Ugledar direction, his stubborn attacks would stop. It is obvious that the command of the enemy troops will continue their attempts to achieve their goals. This is objectively evidenced by the concentration in this operational zone of a number of tactical-level reserves, which, so far, the command of the enemy troops has not committed to battle, but clearly pulled here precisely for this purpose.

At least up to 3 "consolidated" BTGrs from the 136th MRR of the 58th CAA and the 103rd MRR of the 150th MRR are already concentrated between Olginka and Slavne). In addition, no less than the "consolidated" battalion of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th CAA is being restored in the operational rear of the right flank of the 58th CAA and can be moved to a site near Pavlovka within 4 hours.

It is interesting that the enemy command in their reports on the reasons for the "slowdown in the pace of advance" motivates this "unfortunate fact" by several factors - the weather, the transfer of additional forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to this sector, as well as the "inconvenience" of the starting positions for continuing attacks. They say that in Pavlovka there are tough close fights due to the fact that Ukrainian troops constantly cover with fire from the northern part of the village the delivery routes of Russian units trying to move from the south to the northern part of Pavlovka. In addition, fog, light rain and solid urban development (which also greatly hinders the Russian “knights” from moving forward) appear in these reports.

 

 

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Confirmation of muscovite lossess on Pavlivka direction:

 

"Kamchatka marines" in the letter are 40th naval infantry brigade, so they fight together with 155th naval infantry from Vladivostok.

Also Russian military correspondents in big fury and demand tribunals and death penalties not only for mentioned in the letter above generals, but also to personnel of some unit of 3rd Army Corps, which set fire own armor as if this did Ukrainians in order not to drive to help trapped marines through deadly mud field

Looks like fiasco near Pavlivka will be new round of inner fight between MoD party and Prigozhyn-Kadyrov party in Russian force structures rivalry (most of Russian military correspondents/propagandists are supporters the latter party) 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

108th separate battalion of 10th mountain-assault brigade repelled another attempt of enemy advance in Spirne village, Luhansk oblast (29 km NE from Bakhmut). At the end of video you can see bodies of 29 Russian or LDPR fighters, which UKR soldiers gathered after the battle. Also two tanks and probably BMP were destroyed. One more tank is seen on the road after explosion by mine, but this is probably recent loss. 

PS. In comments already noted as minimum half of video is about the recent fighting in July  

 

If someone doubts the magnitude of Russian losses, they should watch this video.  I counted 29 dead at the end.  This seems to be a typical daily attack, not something out of the ordinary.  As noted a couple of pages ago, these sorts of attacks happen in the dozens every day!  Even if the 29 dead was on the upper end, that's still a lot of daily casualties in total.

BTW, those two guys walking down the middle of the road after getting blown up is an example of two guys who just don't understand the environment they are in.  They could have chosen to walk through the trees off to either side of the road, but nope... right out in the open where they are easily spotted and engaged.  To reinforce how stupid they are (or were, I think) they got hit once and yet they got right back up and did exactly the same thing that got them hit the first time.  I don't care how untrained these guys are, this is a sign of low intelligence and problem solving capabilities.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Leak could be connected to recent unscheduled visit by Jake Sullivan to Kyiv. As far as I understand opinions of different coteries in White House, he was initially supporter of less "assertive" and more dyplomatic attitude toward Russia but was outvoted. It appears that something may be happening in the cabinets regarding dyplomatic front.

I think all this sturm and drang comes down to a less aggressive FACTION in the White House, and perhaps congress floating a trial balloon/pre election whatever. I do not think it indicates that this faction is suddenly ascendant, just that if felt the need to stick it head up and see what happened. It is very possibly related to that idiotic letter that was relased, then withdrawn and blamed on some poor staffer. The tankie/appeasement faction exists, we just have to keep whacking it with a cricket bat everytime it gets feisty.

[womble]

29 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

3rd, the only goal is for Ukraine to regain all lands,

I think one of Ukraine's "stretch" goals might well be to ensure that Russia never* again threatens to take any of their lands. They also certainly want the repatriation of all their kidnapped citizens and children. And reparations for the damage inflicted on their lands and people. And accountability for war crimes committed. So regaining their lands is not their only goal.

And a bunch of those goals are even less likely to be conceded by Putin than Putin is to be unseated as leader.

* for a given value of "never".

[Zeleban]

In the border areas of the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation, the enemy command deployed two tactical groupings of troops, respectively - "Kursk" (the command post is deployed in the area of the city of Starodub) and "Bryansk" (the command post is deployed in the area of the city of Rylsk).

"Consolidated" battalion of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the 1st Guards TA (completed from separate units of the 1st MRR and 1st TR of the divisions) - deployed in the Sevsk region

BTGr of the 15th MRR of the 2nd motorized rifle division of the 1st Guards TA - deployed in the area of village Semeika

BTGr of the 423rd MRR, 4th TD, 1st Guards TA - deployed in the area of the village of Kister

"consolidated" battalion of the 51st airborne regiment of the 106th airborne division - deployed in the region of the city of Starodub

Reinforced motorized rifle company of the 254th MRR of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the 20th CAA - occupies positions near the village of Sluchovsk, covering the road to Pogar and further to Pochep - Bryansk.

Most likely, within the next two weeks, units of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division will be replaced as part of the Kursk GV by units of the 6th CAA, due to the concentration and deployment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division on the territory of Belarus as part of a "compatible Russian-Belarusian group of forces".

 

"Kursk" today is based on the regiment of the so-called Territorial Forces (this is something like our Territorial Defense, but in terms of its abilities it does not reach our TD at all). However, it must be borne in mind that this grouping, at the same time, is significantly reinforced by units from the Russian Federation and consists of 5 BTGr / battalions, in particular:

1244th MRR TF (up to 2 battalions) - deployed in the area with. Alekseevka

consolidated battalion of the 76th air assault division - deployed in the region of the city of Rylsk

consolidated battalion of the 98th airborne division - deployed in the district with. Glushkovo

BTGr of the 488th motorized infantry regiment of the 144th motorized rifle division of the 20th CAA— deployed in the district of the village. Suga

By the way, both groups are quite persistent in carrying out active actions of an aggressive nature, performing tasks to prevent the regrouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in these areas to more active sectors of the front. In particular, from time to time the enemy in these areas opens fire from mortars and artillery on the border regions of Ukraine, conducts active aerial reconnaissance using UAVs, and even tries to pretend to be something more than he is in reality. So, for example, a unit of the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division over the past week in the area south of the city of Starodub actively equipped false positions (even models of armored vehicles and tanks were able to install).

And then there is the "Belgorod" group of troops (up to 4 BTGr + a separate CTGr), which generally continues to conduct full-fledged military operations, using the border of Ukraine as a front line - they shoot from mortars, artillery, tanks, and even from time to time deliver air strikes by our units covering the state border of Ukraine.

Thus, it becomes clear that together in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions, the command of the enemy forces is holding deployed forces and assets with a total volume of at least 10 "conditional" BTGr. Which in itself, in modern times, is a significant grouping.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't care how untrained these guys are, this is a sign of low intelligence and problem solving capabilities.

And most amazing of all, they walked together!  They could have separated by ~30m and doubled their individual chance of not being hit.  And they didn't even jog, let alone run, to make harder targets. 

I was thinking same thing about the RU casualties claimed by UKR.  Not looking so outlandish given the amount of anecdotal info + RU confirming its attacking all over the place and failing all over the place.  This has Stalin-1941 written all over it -- attack attack attack!

 

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, those two guys walking down the middle of the road after getting blown up is an example of two guys who just don't understand the environment they are in.  They could have chosen to walk through the trees off to either side of the road, but nope... right out in the open where they are easily spotted and engaged.  To reinforce how stupid they are (or were, I think) they got hit once and yet they got right back up and did exactly the same thing that got them hit the first time.  I don't care how untrained these guys are, this is a sign of low intelligence and problem solving capabilities.

Steve

Btw. I am the only one who noticed increase of videos of Ukrainian quadrocopters carrying more than one granade/round each? It seems they are improving both in accuracy (could be confirmation bias, ofc) and size of payload.

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The tankie/appeasement faction exists, we just have to keep whacking it with a cricket bat everytime it gets feisty.

+1 and this is constant struggle.

[dan/california]

11 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I was. 

It was late...

2 hours ago, sburke said:

it is an opinion piece.  There are actually a number of good articles from actual NYT reporters today.

for example articles

on the fighting in Bakhmut )2 articles)

decline of Russia as an arms exporter

Wagner opening a new center in St Petersburg and what that could mean

Impact and condition for Ukrainian refugees in Europe

 

I didn't even see that guest opinion piece.

 

2 US senators were just in Ukraine reaffirming US commitment for the long haul

The NYT coverage is totally bipolar, great articles reported from the ground and very supportive op-eds will be followed by periods of radio silence. Then they will publish a bunch of crap that makes Neville Chamberlain look like Churchill. All I can figure out is that they have the same sort of competing factions as the NSC.  

36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

SBU "Alfa" Special Forces hit three Russian BMP-3, gathered in one point with 120 mm mortar. Claimed three destroyed, but more likely destroyed only one or two, the third is damaged by close explosions

Location - near Yahidne village, Kharkiv oblast.

 

This is an ultimate demonstration of the not learning Steve mentioned in a different post. Three of Russia's best IFVs parked so so close together you could whack all three of them with a stick without moving your feet.

[kevinkin]

Would add fear, lack of hope, unfed, under supplied, no training and just wanting to receive a million-dollar wound. As 10 year old kids playing Cowboys and Indians we used better tactics naturally. There is something amiss with these guys that defies an explanation. Maybe a Commissar is forcing this suicidal behavior which lacks any sense of self preservation. 

Edited November 6, 2022 by kevinkin

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. I am the only one who noticed increase of videos of Ukrainian quadrocopters carrying more than one granade/round each? It seems they are improving both in accuracy (could be confirmation bias, ofc) and size of payload.

Just different types of drones. Usually Mavic can carry one rarely two grenades. Next level is Matrice 300 (on jargon a "mattress"), which can take more grenades or Matrice 300 or similar drone type with revolver dropper, then it become as real B-52 :))) Taiwan haned over 680 drones equipped with revolver droppers

[Haiduk]

UKR ATGM buggy

 

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Reuters has a summary of a Washington Post article:

U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show Russia it's open to talks -Washington Post

 

The gist of the article is really in the second graf. The US has allies to soothe (read Germany and France) and those allies have internal politics to navigate helped by that soothing. That's all.

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Just different types of drones. Usually Mavic can carry one rarely two grenades. Next level is Matrice 300 (on jargon a "mattress"), which can take more grenades or Matrice 300 or similar drone type with revolver dropper, then it become as real B-52 :))) Taiwan haned over 680 drones equipped with revolver droppers

I have read about those big fat Taiwanese drones several months ago, they were being developed by then. Good they finally went to Ukraine in the end.

Many probably already seen this video of mobiks from Kazan. Mobilziation is going not without its problems:

 

[Kraft]

Incredible 27min video from Counter offensive on Kupiansk, by Kraken Unit. Contains NSFW CQB clip.