How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Best version EVER!

need to photoshop in a window behind them.

[Grigb]

Kadyrov reports that they are preparing to take full control of Soledar.

Quote

The Akhmat special forces, together with allied troops, are preparing to take full control of the city of Soledar of the Donetsk People's Republic. After the systematic destruction of a large number of Nazi military equipment and manpower, the fighters are entrenched in the city.

Reality - they have to go more than 3 km to face main UKR defense.

[Cederic]

One for Kraze.

 

[Kinophile]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

that's a great big F U to Putin from the US.  ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah.  Shouldn't kick you when you're down you say?  Not a rule when dealing w Putin nowadays.

The real joke is, bring war with what? 

Plus, if Ukraine's armed forces (a non-NATO, soviet legacy force without a SEAD component or space based assets) can hold off and punch back hard, then what would Poland alone be able to do? At this point, just Poland with US ISR could kick the living crap out of whatever is left after Ukraine finished chewing on them.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The real joke is, bring war with what? 

Plus, if Ukraine's armed forces (a non-NATO, soviet legacy force without a SEAD component or space based assets) can hold off and punch back hard, then what would Poland alone be able to do? At this point, just Poland with US ISR could kick the living crap out of whatever is left after Ukraine finished chewing on them.

The key aim is deterrence to whoever might be pulling the strings in the Kremlin.

[Cederic]

About time.

 

[akd]

Radio tower at 49.42623° N, 37.44724° E, ESE of Buhaivka:

 

[Desertor]

I have the distinct feeling of some of the last moves in a combat mission game just before your enemy surrender…

[Huba]

Just now, DesertFox said:

The key aim is deterrence to whoever might be pulling the strings in the Kremlin.

Split equally or proportionally between 18 countries this money achieves nothing except signalling. But, give 90% of this money to Moldova, and it will buy enough stuff to retake Transnistria. Otherwise, give it to the Balts and perhaps Slovaks, they need it the most.

[Chibot Mk IX]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

need to photoshop in a window behind them.

Braveheart - Guy thrown out of window.

[sross112]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So here we are at metrics again.  The actions at Kharkiv support the overall collapse of the RA on both physical and morale dimensions.  There will be a lot of strain to reposition a defensive line, somewhere which will translate into logistics and ISR strain as forces reposition etc.  That plus a healthy bagging of RA PoWs is all good...however.....

The big payoff, the biggest, is that the UA appears to have solved for offence  on what is looking like an operational scale.  This is significant as only the RA has been able to sustain anything that looks like offensive operations and this was done through WW1 levels of massed artillery, which the UA does not (and likely will not) have.  So what?  Well if the UA can make large scale offensives work - and this is all the shaping and setting of pre-conditions beforehand - and can do it with what they have then this is potentially an entirely new war.

If the UA can push out to the line you have drawn, all the way to the SD river, while also pushing and more importantly attriting at Kherson then the probability of a forever war has just dropped significantly.  Personally I am not celebrating yet but nothing in the last week has pointed to this being a failure, nor do I think the UA has culminated yet.

I think one of the biggest hits that the Kharkiv operation is giving is the UA appears to be taking back large chunks at good speed with low losses that the RA slogged through for months suffering heavy losses at a glacial pace. Has to have the Nats in knots and will hopefully fuel panic in the RA as well as morale loss. 

I am confused why all that the UA has hit so far in that area has been the mobiks and SOBR. I thought that was the area of operations for the 4th and 47th Tank Divisions as well as multiple other brigades. I understand they were ground down over the past 6 months, but where are they now? Were they pulled into Belgorod for rebuilding? Could there be a significant force for counter attacking? If there is then why hasn't this happened yet? If there isn't, where did it go?

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Radio tower at 49.42623° N, 37.44724° E, ESE of Buhaivka:

 

Thank you. Added to the map:

[Huba]

Geolocated. Looks like ZSU might have reached Oskil already:

 

[sburke]

Russian Troops Are Dashing Around Ukraine Trying To Block Ukrainian Counterattacks (msn.com)

 

 

Quote

 

The Russian army has hurried one of its best units to southern Ukraine in a frantic effort to block a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the region. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington D.C. on Tuesday noted elements of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army in Kherson Oblast for the first time. ISW previously had tracked the 1st GTA around Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

But the 1st GTA’s units can’t be in two places at once–and the Ukrainians are attacking everywhere. It probably is no accident that, shortly after the 147th Artillery Regiment–part of the 1st GTA’s 2nd Motorized Rifle Division–appeared in Kherson, Ukrainian forces counterattacked around Kharkiv.

“The Sept. 6 Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast,” ISW explained.

The Ukraine armed forces have held the initiative since beginning a campaign of deep strikes on Russian supply lines in and around Kherson Oblast in late May then, on Aug. 30, launching mechanized counterattacks in the area. The Russians reacted by shifting troops from the northeast and the east to the south, at which point the Ukrainians attacked along those fronts, as well—taking advantage of the hollowing-out of local Russian defenses.
This is the main dynamic in Ukraine as Russia’s wider war on the country grinds into its sixth month. The Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to shuttle troops around the country–and exploiting the resulting gaps. “Multiple concurrent threats spread across [310 miles] will test Russia’s ability to coordinate operational design and reallocate resources across multiple groupings of forces,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.

The 1st Guards Tank Army, which on paper includes three divisions together with more than 500 tanks, has been in the fight since late February. The 1st GTA took part in the Russian army’s doomed attempt to encircle and occupy Kyiv–an attempt that ended in mass casualties and retreat after the Ukrainians wrecked the Russians’ overstretched supply lines.

After the retreat from Kyiv, the 1st GTA redeployed to the area around Kharkiv, which lies just 25 miles from the Russian border and arguably is the most vulnerable of Ukraine’s major cities. But Kharkiv’s garrison fought hard and not only prevented the Russians from entering the city–it also pushed back the front line until most of Russia’s artillery no longer could bombard the city center.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by sburke

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Split equally or proportionally between 18 countries this money achieves nothing except signalling. But, give 90% of this money to Moldova, and it will buy enough stuff to retake Transnistria. Otherwise, give it to the Balts and perhaps Slovaks, they need it the most.

The point is that this money most likely will never be needed (crosses fingers), but the signal to moscow is that if you move the wrong way you will be in a world full of hurt.

[Haiduk]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good question!  According to MilitaryLand Ukrainian Tank Brigade units are deployed as follows (my "Fronts", with Donbas South = Donetesk City vacinity):
 

Kharkiv Front (4x Tank Bn)

• 10th Tank Battalion, 3rd Tank Brigade
• 4th Tank Brigade

Donbas Front North (4x Tank Bn)

• 3rd Tank Brigade (less 10th Tank Battalion)
• 1st Tank Brigade (less 1st Tank Battalion)

Donbas Front South (0x Tank Bn)

Zaporizhzhia Front (1x Tank Bn)

• 1st Tank Battalion, 1st Tank Brigade

Kherson Front (6x Tank Bn)

• 5th Tank Brigade
• 17th Tank Brigade

Now that I've got my curiosity up, here's the Mech Brigades (each presumably with 1x Tank Battalion each):

Kharkiv Front (3x Tank Bn)

• 30th Mech Brigade (less 1 Mech BN north of Kyiv)
• 92nd Mech Brigade
• 93rd Mech Brigade (located around Izyum bridgehead)

Donbas Front North (3x Tank Bn)

• 14th Mech Brigade
• 72nd Mech Brigade
• 115th Mech Brigade (I don't know about their internal structure, presume it's standard)

Donbas Front South (4x Tank Bn)

• 53rd Mech Brigade
• 54th Mech Brigade
• 56th Mech Brigade
• 66th Mech Brigade

Zaporizhzhia Front (0x Tank Bn)

Kherson Front (2x Tank Bn)

• 28th Mech Brigade
• 63rd Mech Brigade

Tank battalion totals:

Kharkiv Front = 7 Tank Battalions

Donbas Front North = 7 Tank Battalions

Donbas Front South = 4x Tank Battalions

Zaporizhzhia Front = 1x Tank Battalions

Kherson Front = 8x Tank Battalions

 

If we presume that tank battalions is an indicator of importance, we have Kherson as #1 and Zaporizhzhia as #5.  The largest area of activity by the Russians until now (Donbas North) is tied with Kharkiv, with Donbas South in #4.

Following this presumption, it shows that Ukraine's command values the Kharkiv front as much as the most active Russian sector (Donbas North) and just a tiny bit less than what we presume is its primary offensive (Kherson).

Very interesting.

Steve

There are enough mistakes in this list and it of course not complete. Also you should know, that UKR brigades almost don't participate in operations as whole units. The same 93rd brigade fights from Kharkiv to Bakhmut. And elements of 72nd btigade were spotted on Balakliya offensive too. 

56th brigade is mot mech., but motorized. 

Except mech.troops, very important role are playing air-assault troops. At least one BTG of 80th brigade and 25th airborne brigade now on Balakliya axis (other likely in Pisky area and maybe in Kherson area), also on Balakliya axis probably 81st airmobile participates too. BTG of 79th - Siversk area, 46th brigade - Kherson, 95th - Izium (latter two likely in full composition) 

[riptides]

Pontoon guy....

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I am delighted that the Russians are folding like a wet paper bag, but it seems that sector was thinly defended by policemen and 60yo mobiks with no heavy weapons or mobile reserve. I would not say the Ukrainians have proved much yet beyond basic competence at this stage (which might be enough if the Russians are truly spent).

Edit: what I am trying to say is that what works in izium might not work against anything more than a token defense - that is yet to be proven at this Stage. All the more reason to provide more support to the UA.

So, again, do not get too focused on the tactical here.  The UA currently looks like it is balancing two simultaneous operations at either end of the front, one in Kharkiv and one at Kherson.  They are seeing gains in both and look like they are balancing resources to each of them...at the same time.  This is by no stretch "basic competence" for any military, to the point that  I highly doubt 3 out of the 5 EYES militaries could pull this off right now without a lot of prep time - and even the UK may be stretching it.

C4ISR, logistics - especially transport, force generation and projection and deep strike are all being coordinated at a high level between these two operations, and they look like they are doing very well.  No more "oh but the Russian's suck" on this one, what the UA is doing is on the upper end of difficult for any military, let alone one that has been in a meat grinder over the summer.  The last time the west did anything even remotely like this was Gulf War (Iraq 03 was a single axis), and we had air supremacy and it still took months to pull off, and we were not being attacked the whole time. 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Associations with panzers thundering in 1941/1942

Russians have the same vibes

Translation: Again across Ukraine tanks with white crosses drive and red banners are being tear off

White cross as new ID symbol obviously was choosen for high-rank trolling. I will not be surprised if this operation was named by our GS as "Frederikus 2.0"

 

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian child holds a fake rifle as he mans an improvised checkpoint in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, September 8, 2022. JUAN BARRETO / AFP"

[JonS]

10 hours ago, riptides said:

Did we hear this before? Somewhere...?

 

Now consider where cluster munitions fit on this spectrum.

[Artkin]

I'm sure the LAST thing the Russians expect is a counterattack into the rear of Izium, Lyman, and finally Siverodonetsk. Just like 6th army in 1942, maybe it would be wise to ride the river. Hey they would be liberating the coast as said.

[FancyCat]

Ukrainians correct me, this is referring to the Izium Raion? Google maps says this is the Raion borders. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

Both a clip and a post are interesting so leave them here.

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Translation: Again across Ukraine tanks with white crosses drive and red banners are being tear off

White cross as new ID symbol obviously was choosen for high-rank trolling. I will not be surprised if this operation was named by our GS as "Frederikus 2.0"

Yup, just as I thought so. Historical theatrum in Russian shovinists heads is palying once more.

Btw. seriously what the of name of this operation is is curious. It may be known and studied for many years to come, especially if they really manage to capture/sorround Kupyanks. I would vote for something like "Chervona Kalina"; or maybe less ethnic, like 'Thunder"".

Edited September 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I am delighted that the Russians are folding like a wet paper bag, but it seems that sector was thinly defended by policemen and 60yo mobiks with no heavy weapons or mobile reserve. I would not say the Ukrainians have proved much yet beyond basic competence at this stage (which might be enough if the Russians are truly spent).

Edit: what I am trying to say is that what works in izium might not work against anything more than a token defense - that is yet to be proven at this Stage. All the more reason to provide more support to the UA.

Well, lets not underestimate Russia, the ground forces may be useless, but VVS can probably fly sorties from squadrons allocated to Kherson without much a issue, the fact that UKR AD is such that this advance has not been seriously disturbed by airpower is very encouraging on the part of UKR AD and their advancing units which requires serious coordination to not leave the advancing units uncovered and easy to be destroyed.