How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Judging by the catostrophic detonation, I would guess Javelin. The front hull and turret is covered with frontal facing ERA which would deform the Stugna's ATGM. Also Stugna wouldnt be used in an offensive role like this. T-64's sabots nor HEAT will penetrate T-90M either. 

Even if the T-90M took a frontal hit, it has blowout panels in the rear of the turret to prevent a K-kill. 

There is an opinion that was T-80BVM

 

[Artkin]

Just now, Haiduk said:

There is an opinion that was T-80BVM

 

They are brothers with different engines as far as I know. Same ERA (I think?) same FCS (For sure). They both represent the finest spearhead the Russian ground forces can offer. According to Oryx, half of that modern fleet has already been killed. 

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Russian Troops Are Dashing Around Ukraine Trying To Block Ukrainian Counterattacks (msn.com)

For sure, relying on very weak lines to hold an enormous frontage. It'd be different if this was a real war where a reserve force could come and exploit the pocket. 

This is what happens when you're on the wrong side of the crescent. If the Russians wanted to minimize their distance travelled they would stick closest to the front line, exposing them to artillery fire. 

The russians should have ceded territory to clean up their lines. What a total mess. 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Alexander Nakonechny, unit unknown:

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Kadyrov reports that they are preparing to take full control of Soledar.

Reality - they have to go more than 3 km to face main UKR defense.

Some remark for this map from our soldier, he is from Bakhmut, probably fights on Donbas:

Translation: Knauf [factory] our guys fought back, made there grey zone, because not profitable to stand there, but they expelled orcs in order they don't shot form there. 

[akd]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is an opinion that was T-80BVM

 

The front turret ERA on the T-80BVM curves.  However, T-90A and T-64BV front turret ERA also have straight lines without curve or steps.

Left to right T-72B3M, T-80BVM and T-90M:

Edited September 8, 2022 by akd

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some remark for this map from our soldier, he is from Bakhmut, probably fights on Donbas:

Translation: Knauf [factory] our guys fought back, made there grey zone, because not profitable to stand there, but they expelled orcs in order they don't shot form there. 

I believe some of RU infantry are hiding inside the plant. They hide during the day and resupply/reinforce during the night.  

[Beleg85]

Clips from liberated town. One cannot fake it; looks like NW Europe after Falaise.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

I understand they were ground down over the past 6 months, but where are they now?

They bogged on Barvinkove - Sloviansk direction on southern bank of Siverskyi Donets enough far from Balakliya. 

Konstantin Mashovets wrote he not agree with Russian propagandists, which blamed own command in inaction. According to his opinion, Russian intelligence spotted some movements of UKR troops , but couldn't decide where UKR will attack - southern of Izium, where they already tryed or northern. And likely they thought main target of preparations was Izium. Russian troops already more than week before UKR offensive tried to push UKR troops on Chuhuiv area and in Husarivka, using BTGs of 144th MRD and some other units - in this way they tryed to deprive our troops their advantageous lines, from where they could launch attacks. But their attempts failed.   

Edited September 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Artkin said:

The russians should have ceded territory to clean up their lines. What a total mess.

You are defeatist, General Artkin.  We will not cede one meter of our sacred soil.  This will be reported to kremlin authorities.

Anyone else tear up watching the video Beleg posted, where the old ladies are crying w joy over the heroes who showed up at their door?

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

Actually, I think its quite useful for Ukraine to retake this area, very crap map i drew below, Ukraine significantly lowers the frontage needed to keep garrisoned in the event of a full successful takeover of the Izyum region. The red lines are what I would envision UKR lines following mop up of Russian forces, the green is the logistical hub for the Russians how it worked, the pink are rivers, blue the pre-offensive front line.

As you can see, with Ukraine taking Kupyansk, not only does Russia lose the rail hub and must bring supplies from the East and further away, Ukraine can anchor a defense from the Donets river, then via Shevchenkove and I see on google maps, another river along the red line between the Oskii and Donets river, so basically, Ukraine can absolutely move troops off this region elsewhere since it needs less forces to oversee river crossings. 

Also, with the loss of Izyum, any future aspirations for seizing Kharkiv, or Slovyansk are now basically dead. Furthermore, with Izyum retaken, Ukraine can move into Lyman, and there is also another river beside Lyman where Ukraine can anchor another defensive line.

Basically, taking Izyum and reducing the Russian forces there opens up the paths to retaking the rest of Kharkiv oblast or firmly denying the "liberation of the DPR" de jure borders. 

[Artkin]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You are defeatist, General Artkin.  We will not cede one meter of our sacred soil.  This will be reported to kremlin authorities.

Anyone else tear up watching the video Beleg posted, where the old ladies are crying w joy over the heroes who showed up at their door?

Hah, as Ukraine knows: ground can always be regained. Elastic Defense has seemingly worked for them. Focusing on kills instead of ground gained is how you win wars. 

I definitely had the feeling of "This is what we're fighting for". Heartwarming stuff 

[Artkin]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You are defeatist, General Artkin.  We will not cede one meter of our sacred soil.  This will be reported to kremlin authorities.

Anyone else tear up watching the video Beleg posted, where the old ladies are crying w joy over the heroes who showed up at their door?

Hah, as Ukraine knows: ground can always be regained. Elastic Defense has seemingly worked for them. Focusing on kills instead of ground gained is how you win wars. 

I definitely had the feeling of "This is what we're fighting for". Heartwarming stuff 

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ukrainians correct me, this is referring to the Izium Raion? Google maps says this is the Raion borders.

 

Yes, though I not shure Google Maps correctly depicts current boundaries after administrative reform 

[Beleg85]

Luhanda mobiks refuse to  be marked as "volunteers" and send to Kupyansk:

 

[Haiduk]

Loud explosions in Kherson outskirts. Very loud explosions in Hola Prystan' 

RUMINT from Kherson direction

I will not translate all text, briefly - units of 20th MRD, which were deployed near Kyselivka and covered the road on Chornobaivka in the night on 8th Sep abandoned own positions without warning of own neighbours and withdrew to Dnieper. Ukrainans didn't spot in time Russian retreat and waste about half day, making recon, but now advance to Kyselivka and Russian arty keeps silence. Other units very angry on 20th MRD, but according to other source, retreated units got an order for redeployment to Inhulets area

Edited September 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Maybe mistake assesment and "trench news" but...

Our guys already yesterday has worked at Iranian UCAVs of orcs. This motherf...s could learned to fly on its after all.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

28th mech.brigade fights on Kherson direction. Looks like this is empty irrigations canal. Soldiers after some ATGM launch cryes at the end "I hit this motherf...r!!!! "

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Well, lets not underestimate Russia, the ground forces may be useless, but VVS can probably fly sorties from squadrons allocated to Kherson without much a issue, the fact that UKR AD is such that this advance has not been seriously disturbed by airpower is very encouraging on the part of UKR AD and their advancing units which requires serious coordination to not leave the advancing units uncovered and easy to be destroyed. 

I'm eagerly awaiting a video of a Gepard chewing up a SU-25. At some point the VVS will have to be thrown in the mix with everything it has. That it hasn't so far tells me they aren't comfortable flying out of their AA umbrella and the UA SEAD strikes with HARMs and HIMARS have made them pretty nervous. I'm really hoping they sally forth into a NASAMS and Mig 29 ambush. 

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

RUMINT from Kherson direction

I will not translate all text, briefly - units of 20th MRD, which were deployed near Kyselivka and covered the road on Chornobaivka in the night on 8th Sep abandoned own positions without warning of own neighbours and withdrew to Dnieper. Ukrainans didn't spot in time Russian retreat and waste about half day, making recon, but now advance to Kyselivka and Russian arty keeps silence. Other units very angry on 20th MRD, but according to other source, retreated units got an order for redeployment to Inhulets area

Interesting why artillery is not working; I hope it is not some form of feint.

Short Kofman thread (link only):

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1567982819770798080

 

[Haiduk]

Destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles on the road section Volokhiv Yar - Shevchenkove

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, asurob said:

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1567935286813786112?s=20&t=OzWdpbMQq-K5BilQSQ7nbQ

Would be nice to have that geolocated!

[Edit - I should have first checked to see if AKD has posted the coordinates.  And he did!]

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Would be nice to have that geolocated!

Steve

it is already geolocated. It is Yasinovate. On my latest map it is to the east from Vesele.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Cederic said:

One for Kraze.

 

I hope you don't mind that I saved it for my "Funnies" folder.  Your contribution is #276.  Obviously I am selective in what I save

Steve

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Would be nice to have that geolocated!

Steve

And worth to remember these are probably civilians:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567948887498887168

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I hope you don't mind that I saved it for my "Funnies" folder.  Your contribution is #276.  Obviously I am selective in what I save

Steve

If somebody ever do a mod or expansion, such graphics will need to be found in Manual. Can even be hundred of pages, we will explain them to our grandchildren.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Beleg85