How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Na zdrowie! I'll wait till I see a picture of Ukrainian tank at the bank of Oskil reservoir. So hopefully till the evening 

I think you are going to miss all the fun.

There is UKR map with claim of current UKR penetration. I put red square around Buhaivka that one RU solder said this is where UKR broke through

 

@Haiduk, @kraze peredaite nashim sho I ebashy! Pol shkalika and luchok yje zaebashil!

[akd]

Has there even been a rumor of Sen’kove falling?  Also, any read on bridges still up on the Oskil R. / Reservoir? As I recall the dam and crossings south of it were destroyed in the previous fighting.  Have any been restored, or only replaced with pontoon crossings?

Edited September 8, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Has there even been a rumor of Sen’kove falling?

There has now...

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Has there even been a rumor of Sen’kove falling?

UKR soldiers were hinting yesterday that news are mind blowing. 

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

UKR soldiers were hinting yesterday that news are mind blowing. 

Disappointment, I assumed they are advancing on Belgorod. Regarding the map, it is convincing enough. Cheers!

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Disappointment, I assumed they are advancing on Belgorod. Regarding the map, it is convincing enough. Cheers!

Greedy, but it would be GLORIOUS.

[Grigb]

UKR unofficial confirmation Borshivka taken

[akd]

^{Ukrainians assaulting a village in Kharkiv on Humvees:}

 

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Has there even been a rumor of Sen’kove falling?

UKR claim

Quote

Sinikha and Senkovo- is ours

Kupyansk is 21 km away

[FancyCat]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This might be a real problem for an army that seems too literally be motivated/paid by looting, and even less pleasant activities. There is no reason to bypass a town and give the second echelon the privilege of sacking it. Seriously, not joking, the Mongols were better led and disciplined, at least at the peak of their power. They wouldn't take the place apart until they were told too.

With how **** their supply and logistics were in the more movement phrase of the war, I bet a ton of looting was necessary just to feed themselves. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

UKR soldiers were hinting yesterday that news are mind blowing. 

What we have to keep in mind is that the driving distances between any two settlements is VERY short.  10-15 minutes under normal circumstances.  10 settlements in a single line, theoretically, takes only 2.5 hours.  Even if it takes Ukraine 10x longer to cover the same distance under combat conditions, we're still talking about 24 hours.  We have to adjust our sense of time to this new reality vs. the Russian reality we've seen play out for the last 4 months.

Bold action + short distances + little resistance = huge gains very quickly.

What we're seeing is a repeat of the push away from Kharkiv many months ago, except on a larger scale on the Ukrainian side.  However, the underlying reasons for the rapid advance are the same... thinly held Russian positions.

As I suspected many pages ago, the Russians do NOT have defense in depth here.  At least nothing significant.  I went over the many reasons why I theorized it would be the case, but the primary one is that Russia likely didn't think it had to put in the effort.  Hubris and desperation make for some really bad decisions, that's for sure.

Contrast this with the Donbas area that Russia was so focused on.  Ukraine had EIGHT YEARS to build up its defenses and, unlike Russia, it thought it needed to.  Also unlike Russia, it did.  So when Russian forces (DLPR included, obviously) broke through X location they found the next settlement Y to be adequately defended.  Since Russia couldn't afford to bypass defenses, it had to regroup for a renewed frontal attack.  This, in turn, gave Ukraine time to make more defenses in the settlements to the rear.

So, what we're seeing in Kharkiv area is that Ukraine can basically take settlements as fast as they can drive to them, stop for a spot of coffee, and move on.  No wonder I just saw a report that Russian occupation forces are evacuating civilians from Kupyansk

Steve

[dan/california]

This much good news with my coffee could kill a person.

[Huba]

Another flag raising. Gotta be one of the best moments in this profession.

 

[Grigb]

Updated map

[rocketman]

Man I would like to see the look on Putin’s face when he gets this news 

What will the ramifications in RU army be like - total chaos? Hope so.

[Battlefront.com]

I'll also add that it appears Russia has nearly no mobile reserves anywhere near what is required to arrest these advances.  Rushing a depleted company with a couple of armored vehicles into a settlement that has NO prepared defenses is just not going to work. Especially because the commander likely has absolutely no sense of the terrain and is therefore unlikely to deploy in a place that will matter once Ukraine gets there.

For people wondering what an operational collapse looks like, keep reading this thread

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Another flag raising. Gotta be one of the best moments in this profession.

Well, until the next town he raises a flag I suppose it might get old after awhile, but I think it's unlikely!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Well, RU military education system (created in USSR) has issues. Let me tell you an example:

This is Konstantin Stepanishchev

He is a graduate of the Suvorov military school - he is by default elite of RU officer corp.

In 2013 he was assigned to command 23rd Moto Rifle Brigade. And in 2014 he was sent to unofficially command 4th Brigade of Luhansk People Militia under nickname Almaz. 

He commanded until one fateful day:

You might think this is the most important part of the story, but it is not. The most important part is:

1. After this epic debacle he got rank of General Majour
2. Some say he even got top award Hero of RF
3. And he attended RU elite Academy of General Staff 

Let me summarize. This clown is elite of RU officer Corps and RU army sees no issues with him.

I think Kofman and others seemed to not have noticed this sort of stuff.  Yet it was there for anybody looking for it.  Which, I think, is the primary problem with the analysts... they weren't looking for it.

Steve

[Grigb]

RU clarification regarding Schevchenko

Quote

08.09.2022
Shevchenko, Kupyansky district, Kharkiv region, Ukraine.

Once again: the settlement was captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at night (only one hundred airborne soldiers were allocated to protect it) - which I wrote about it earlier

All  today's pi**r [gay's] reports from our crazy [reporters] that "there are heavy battles going on - carry two reasons:

1. The "military reporters" do not have reliable sources there;

2. The "military reporters" prepared the ground [to cover reatreat news] with the premise - "they fought with all their strength."

Their "manya-world" [imaginary world] (that help to create the current situation) - did not go anywhere.

 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think Kofman and others seemed to not have noticed this sort of stuff.  Yet it was there for anybody looking for it.  Which, I think, is the primary problem with the analysts... they weren't looking for it.

Steve

Yes, RU army rot was clear for anyone who was looking for it.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'll also add that it appears Russia has nearly no mobile reserves anywhere near what is required to arrest these advances.  Rushing a depleted company with a couple of armored vehicles into a settlement that has NO prepared defenses is just not going to work. Especially because the commander likely has absolutely no sense of the terrain and is therefore unlikely to deploy in a place that will matter once Ukraine gets there.

For people wondering what an operational collapse looks like, keep reading this thread

Steve

Decision to commit 3th Army Corps to Donetsk/ Kherson was not optimal it turns out. Again the political pressure/ direct meddling in military operations turns out to be their doom.

[rocketman]

http://media.giphy.com/media/3oKIPxUlFQEULY6ODm/giphy.gif

The gif doesn’t show, but it includes a ”prediction”.

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by rocketman
Clarfication

[Grigb]

UKR flag in center of Balaklya - Rybar agreed they lost it.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now in Ph III, I would not get too focused on where the main effort is, or is not, at this point because the main effort is likely wherever things are working.  This is brilliant stuff the UA is doing, really professional work.  I was impressed at Kherson as they had linked deep strike with a tactical attrition approach (fog v snow) that is clearly making gains. 

Ditto! (dating myself, but it's a beautiful day and I don't care!)

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Then they had enough in the tank to do a simultaneous attack back at Kharkov all the way on the other side of the line.  Both attacks threaten to bag/cut off large quantities of RA and have possibly gripped the Russians in what I refer to as a null decision space.  The RA has a dilemma that it cannot likely solve - its capabilities are too shot up, its logistics hammered, its C2 is divided and uncoordinated, and its ISR is last gen.  So how does the RA solve a two front attack?  It likely doesn't and just digs in and holds on and does local flailing - no decision is a decision.

Keen observers have been noticing that Russia hasn't been making active decisions for months now.  It's just been going through the motions, kinda like how I dance at weddings.  I move around a bit, but it's neither attractive or useful for anything other than a laugh at my expense.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Mud starts in Oct-Nov?  So they have at least a month to play this game out, I expect that the RA system will buckle somewhere by then.  I swear to gawd if the UA now pulls another rabbit out of the hat and drives right up the middle and takes Melitopol this thing might be "over by Xmas" - but I really try to avoid saying that phrase as it has a lot of bad historical baggage.  My guess is that they will not, but will continue to hit lateral LOCs as the RA flails around trying to play Dutch Boy to stop the bleeding.

I've always considered a full military collapse as the most likely scenario because I don't know that Russia is capable of imitating the Dutch Boy due to all the missing fingers.  At some point there's just nothing left to move around that will make any difference.  That will be noticed by the grunts in the field at some point.  At that point even a 1:2 attack by Ukraine might be enough to get units to displace.  IF we get to that stage then even the TD units with almost no support will start retaking ground.  That will snowball downhill fast if regular defenders can switch over to offensive and succeed.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I can only hope this shuts up the "Ukraine is doomed" crowd for a good long time.  Broken, barely holding on militaries do not wage operations like this - they behave much more like the RA in response to them.     

One can hope, but I doubt it.  They'll keep saying things like "well, of course this is good news, however there's still a lot of territory under Russian occupation so we should need to be cautious about what comes next.  I read somewhere that Russia is raising a 4th and 5th Army Corps, so this could very well erase Ukraine's recent gains".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Decision to commit 3th Army Corps to Donetsk/ Kherson was not optimal it turns out. Again the political pressure/ direct meddling in military operations turns out to be their doom.

Yup.  They should have used these guys to beef up the thin lines, cover the retreat of Kherson forces, etc.  Instead they appear to be sitting around readying for a PR offensive while the Ukrainians conduct a real one.  Correction, two real ones

Steve