How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[danfrodo]

another summary of the latest w some video I hadn't seen yet here.  URK ambush destroys RU supply column in Kherson region.  Also note that 50 countries gathered at Rammstein AFB for 5th meeting of Ukraine Defense Contact Group.  I wonder how many countries RU could get to come (willingly) to such a meeting.  I thought Rammstein was just a crazy german metal band, but turns out it's more than that.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/8/2121532/-Ukraine-update-Balakliya-and-Shevchenkove-liberated-on-the-incredible-drive-to-Kupyansk

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

Ah, yes, here we go.  The old 'stab in the back' myth is being invoked to explain why your stupid senseless incompetent war of choice is failing.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

 

 

Fingers crossed the Ru Nats try a coup, fail messily, and the both the Russian army and the L/DPR descend into utter chaos. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of bleepers.

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

I'd say it's about bagging lots of RU men & gear.  RU already stretched very thin.  And there's always the collapse possible due to two massive RU pockets being smashed -- both political and military collapse possible.  As Steve always says it's about killing Russians.  I'd prefer they all surrendered (because I'm nice and need them for trading later) plus all that gear UKR gets.

[DesertFox]

Impressive! I hope they manage to cut off the supply hub Kubiansk.

 

 

[Cederic]

Meanwhile, back home..

Also at https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-hometown-demands-indicted-27942036 and no doubt many other sources.

 

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

Lots of dead russians is a pretty big deal as it is - not to mention it completely screws over Luhansk sector security for russians (possible backdoor to Siverodonetsk) and effectively denies them Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which russians want to level and exterminate more than any other city in that area, same as Mariupol.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

So here we are at metrics again.  The actions at Kharkiv support the overall collapse of the RA on both physical and morale dimensions.  There will be a lot of strain to reposition a defensive line, somewhere which will translate into logistics and ISR strain as forces reposition etc.  That plus a healthy bagging of RA PoWs is all good...however.....

The big payoff, the biggest, is that the UA appears to have solved for offence  on what is looking like an operational scale.  This is significant as only the RA has been able to sustain anything that looks like offensive operations and this was done through WW1 levels of massed artillery, which the UA does not (and likely will not) have.  So what?  Well if the UA can make large scale offensives work - and this is all the shaping and setting of pre-conditions beforehand - and can do it with what they have then this is potentially an entirely new war.

If the UA can push out to the line you have drawn, all the way to the SD river, while also pushing and more importantly attriting at Kherson then the probability of a forever war has just dropped significantly.  Personally I am not celebrating yet but nothing in the last week has pointed to this being a failure, nor do I think the UA has culminated yet.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

Yup, this is why it makes more sense for Kherson to be the primary operation.  It's going to take a lot longer and a lot more forces to take back the rest of Ukraine.  Getting rid of the Kherson pocket not only scores a major victory, but it also frees up something like 4x Mech and 2x Tank brigades to do something else. Not to mention all that artillery, logistics, etc!

I think the best thing for Ukraine to do in Kharkiv is stop along the Siverskyi Donets for the most part.  A couple of bridgeheads would be nice to have.  Provides good defensive lines for next year.

Steve

[Kinophile]

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?

Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)

Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture? 

yes.  Why?  because the big picture isn't about ground.  It is about initiative.  Ukraine has clearly seized it and exposed how weak the RA really is.  This is creating a huge political problem for Putin as it is now clear the war is going disastrously.  You now see calls for charging Putin with treason.  The House of Cards is getting shaky.

[Cederic]

Apologies for linking a Russian news source, but this one heavily suggests that Russia have finally realised that they've lost.

Quote

United Nations, September 8. /TASS/. Russia is requesting a meeting of the UN Security Council on Thursday concerning Western arms supplies to Ukraine, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzya said.

https://tass.com/politics/1504587

[asurob]

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1567935286813786112?s=20&t=OzWdpbMQq-K5BilQSQ7nbQ

Edited September 8, 2022 by asurob

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I did find was more evidence of the fighting that is (maybe) still going on in Balakleya:

There should be some fighting in the outskirts (most likely eastern ones) - RU is upset and trying to hold something for propaganda purposes. 

I suspect this is outskirts due to 5-stories buildings. 

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, this is why it makes more sense for Kherson to be the primary operation.  It's going to take a lot longer and a lot more forces to take back the rest of Ukraine.  Getting rid of the Kherson pocket not only scores a major victory, but it also frees up something like 4x Mech and 2x Tank brigades to do something else. Not to mention all that artillery, logistics, etc!

I think the best thing for Ukraine to do in Kharkiv is stop along the Siverskyi Donets for the most part.  A couple of bridgeheads would be nice to have.  Provides good defensive lines for next year.

Steve

Exactly, plus I somehow doubt the RUS River crossing capability has improved.

Taking Kherson not only frees up units but keeps Crimea threatened an "on the menu". But I think UA needs to cross the river asap after (or even before,  at small scale) the fall of Kherson. If they can do that then they'll have flipped the operational and strategic tables on Russia- now, in the spring,  UA will be threatening a vital RUS city & port and not vice versa. 

Khatkiv/Izium is a nice to have,  but Kherson is the real priority. Getting to the SD River and taking Izium,  as @The_Capt notes, will proved a solid,  defensible gain that is way harder for RUS to attack, but strategically,  Kherson is the prize of prizes. It kills any future RUS attack into the South,  secures the UKR coastline a lot more and guarantees grain shipments. It also let's UA start to rebuild its navy,  although they do seem to be doing just fine without one!  Still,  if/when Crimea falls,  the UA Black Sea Fleet will need to fill the void, because Turkey. 

Interestingly,  while the fall of Kherson and Izium would drastically help the Ukrainian operational stance, for RUS everything gets worse and they still have a ginormously long frontage to defend. Usually when you're kicked back you have physically less to protect, eg the Germans from Stalingrad falling back to the Polish border.

But the loss of Izium extends the Russian frontage up there (because salient) and the loss of Kherson means they still have to watch the entire river. That's easier to defend but it's still a long line, plus if UA does quickly cross at Kherson then the Ivan has that extra salient frontage to watch also. 

So the demand for infantry will remain the same but the availables will be less in quantity and absolutely less in quality (3rd "Army Corp",  Pfft.). 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Apologies for linking a Russian news source, but this one heavily suggests that Russia have finally realised that they've lost.

https://tass.com/politics/1504587

ha.  Gee now they get to appreciate the other side of the security council - where you are asking for something, and others just give you the glassy stare and a thumbs down.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

ha.  Gee now they get to appreciate the other side of the security council - where you are asking for something, and others just give you the glassy stare and a thumbs down.

I think the U.S. ambassador should show a live stream of Abrams being loaded on a sip with nice new Ukrainian flags on the turrets, maybe a little thank you message from Zelensky. Oh, and ATCAMS, can't forget those.

[hcrof]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

The big payoff, the biggest, is that the UA appears to have solved for offence  on what is looking like an operational scale.  This is significant as only the RA has been able to sustain anything that looks like offensive operations and this was done through WW1 levels of massed artillery, which the UA does not (and likely will not) have.  So what?  Well if the UA can make large scale offensives work - and this is all the shaping and setting of pre-conditions beforehand - and can do it with what they have then this is potentially an entirely new war.

I am delighted that the Russians are folding like a wet paper bag, but it seems that sector was thinly defended by policemen and 60yo mobiks with no heavy weapons or mobile reserve. I would not say the Ukrainians have proved much yet beyond basic competence at this stage (which might be enough if the Russians are truly spent).

Edit: what I am trying to say is that what works in izium might not work against anything more than a token defense - that is yet to be proven at this Stage. All the more reason to provide more support to the UA.

Edited September 8, 2022 by hcrof

[danfrodo]

Again, the key to all this is taking players off the chess board.  If RU just leaves Kherson, it can redeploy those resources, just as UKR can.  If those troops are bagged, then only UKR gets the benefit of the shorter lines.  Same thing in Izyum.  If all goes well,  UKR repeats the process.  The find weakly defended sector and attack there, after lots of feints & probes all over the place to keep RU guessing.   

[sburke]

U.S. Preparing for Russia to Bring War to NATO Countries (msn.com)

 

Quote

 

The U.S. State Department announced Thursday that it wants the U.S. lawmakers to approve funds for countries that neighbor Ukraine and "are potentially at risk of future Russian aggression."

The funds would be part of a new $2 billion-plus aid package to Ukraine and its allies that has been proposed by U.S. officials.

In a statement on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the funds would be provided to 18 nations that neighbor Ukraine.

The $2.2 billion package, which would need to be approved by Congress, would provide roughly $1 billion to Ukraine, and the rest would be split among countries including the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia and Lithuania, the Associated Press reported, while Slovakia, Poland, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Moldova and Slovenia would also receive funds.

In recent weeks, NATO has taken steps to protect member states amid concerns that the war could extend beyond Ukraine's borders. Last month, NATO planes and fighter jets began a surveillance effort, and the organization said it was providing a "constant defensive presence and monitoring the airspace" over Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by sburke

[Grigb]

RU reports

Quote

Russian Armed Forces begin defense of Kupyansk — city authorities

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

U.S. Preparing for Russia to Bring War to NATO Countries (msn.com)

 

 

that's a great big F U to Putin from the US.  ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah.  Shouldn't kick you when you're down you say?  Not a rule when dealing w Putin nowadays.

[dan/california]

Best version EVER!