How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Dawn in Ukraine is not a lot of hours away, really looking forward to reports when it's morning my time.  This it turning into quite a wild ride.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is also a shock effect on western sensibilities.  We have not seen a war like this, even from afar, in some time (or at least not one we pay attention to - sorry Yemen).   We are invested in the war, but it does not look like any war we have been in since Vietnam or Korea.  For example, attacking a peer force that is dug in, 5:1 casualties is not crazy at the tactical level in an attack, they are trading lives for results and that is an equation we have simply forgotten.  None of our recent wars, and we had days on them trust me, are anywhere close to this.  In fact if we had an entire platoon wiped out in Iraq of Afghanistan it would have had major political results.  We make the mistake of applying our old metrics to this fight and they do not add up because this is a very different fight.

The hardest thing to comprehend in terms of western sensibilities is rock sold nerve it to hold, and hold , and hold, with anywhere between 50 and 200 kia per day. It one thing to do the cold, cruel math of war, it another to tell brave men to go out and die because that is what the math said. The AFU waited until they had enough trained people and enough equipment at the schwerpunkt to drive it home. Just unbelievable generalship, I assume every member of AFU senior staff will be able to spend the rest of their lives lecturing at western staff colleges. The top tier can probably raise a lot of money for veterans and such giving corporate speeches.

[paxromana]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Would NATO intervene then in some way?  And if Putin already is turning to nukes would he just keep escalating?  I suppose NATO intervention would be mostly by air, but what would they attack?

Blow the Kerch Bridge, for a start. Declare a 'no fly zone' for RuAF over Ukraine. Shoot down any RuAF aircraft launching missiles at Ukraine no matter where they are flying. Sink what's left of the Black Sea Fleet. Hit all the RuAF fields in Crimea. Sink all Russian shipping in Sea of Azov. Hit all major Russian supply/railway nodes and railway bridges feeding supplies into UKR.

Let them know that any more Tacnukes or CBW and NATO will respond in kind.

[Battlefront.com]

TikTok Warriors are on their way to Ukraine!  Empty buildings and grass shudder with fear:

 

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Blow the Kerch Bridge, for a start. Declare a 'no fly zone' for RuAF over Ukraine. Shoot down any RuAF aircraft launching missiles at Ukraine no matter where they are flying. Sink what's left of the Black Sea Fleet. Hit all the RuAF fields in Crimea. Sink all Russian shipping in Sea of Azov. Hit all major Russian supply/railway nodes and railway bridges feeding supplies into UKR.

Let them know that any more Tacnukes or CBW and NATO will respond in kind.

Right, Kerch bridge.   Good call.  So some escalation but not tit for tat, actually punching back in serious ways that are less than what RU did.  Not bad.  I suspect that RU has been warned not to go WMD or face things Putin doesn't want to face, w/o being too specific. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Would NATO intervene then in some way? 

Yes, but that intervention would quite likely occur before any nukes were even launched. And possibly with Russian connivance.  Make of that what you will.

*****

....Escalation is a deep rabbit hole and my appetite for such what-ifs is pretty limited.  But here is my own view, worth everything you paid for it:

1.  I see no signs that the actual men in actual charge in actual Russia today are up for nuclear war, collectively or individually.  The evil is banal, not mad.

2.  Intellectually, Putin is a product of the Soviet technocracy (their 'PMC'). He has amassed supreme power by coldly and systematically pulling its levers for the benefit of his clique. Those levers include using the legacy Soviet military machine in his own backyard, with its adventurism fueled by cyclical resource windfalls. Why not, it's sitting there idle and rusting?

Like most such apparatchiks (not just Russians btw), he has no actual notion of how to create capital, only how to scheme to control and expend existing capital.

3.  Philosophically, while Putin is clearly in earnest about '(re)gathering the Russian lands' (a standard Russian view, not something he invented), and also believes the Motherland is by default menaced by the rest of humanity, there is nothing at all in his emotional makeup or observed personal behaviour to suggest a Hitler monomania or messianism, Russian flavoured or otherwise.

The man doesn't especially enjoy speechifying, kissing babies, or the sound of his own voice in small crowds, or the company of others. He does get a smug satisfaction from triggering others, but it's a catlike kind of emotion, carefully bounded.  He's INTJ, a calculating introvert.

4. Putin knows now he miscalculated terribly when Ukraine didn't fold on Day 3. His Martingale double dow bets with the war machine had worked up to then, and finally they didn't.

Since then, he has been scrambling to salvage whatever he can by using up the rest of what blood and treasure he started with, bluff and divide his enemies wherever he can, and hoping he can outlast ________________. 

5. Putin is 70 and ailing. I suspect he is resigned to dying in a couple of years, and like most of us old folks does not especially fear it.

Again, there is nothing in the man's visible persona to suggest he wants a legacy that includes triggering doomsday -- or more likely failing foolishly if he tried -- even if he had nothing else to lose. He is not the Mad King.

FWIW

Edited September 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sross112]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Right, Kerch bridge.   Good call.  So some escalation but not tit for tat, actually punching back in serious ways that are less than what RU did.  Not bad.  I suspect that RU has been warned not to go WMD or face things Putin doesn't want to face, w/o being too specific. 

Early on in this thread when nukes were brought up and NATO response there was a link to an interview or statement from I think Gen. Hertling (sp?). He advised that the western response would only be kinetic but it would be devastating. With what we know now I can imagine the hate, pain and discontent that western cruise missiles and air power could unleash on Russia. 

With that being said and the other talk of Putin being deposed, I don't think there is much to be worried about. From his recent praising of the non RA units and cold shouldering the top brass to his early alienation and imprisonment of a bunch of FSB he is putting himself in an exit position where he can blame everyone else and keep the Russian people on his side. Without the support of the people the Nats don't stand a chance to take him out. The oligarchs have been sent strong messages. The military is committing Hari-Kari on the steppes of Ukraine. The liberals don't have the strength or power. 

He can give a big speech to the Russian people and point out the faulty intel from the FSB prior to pulling the trigger. He can round up each and every member of the military that isn't absolutely loyal and have them shot or worse due to their corruption that gutted all the magnificent technology that would have allowed the RA to win. Then as icing on the cake he can spin a yarn to the west about how he was able to override and stop the decisions to use WMD's up to and including nukes to save western Europe. 

That will keep him in power after the RA collapses. If we have a spectacular collapse in Kherson and Kharkiv I won't be surprised if he orders a complete withdraw and does the above. That saves him for now. How they will manage to keep the federation together over the next 5 years I have no idea. 

 

For LLF: "I'll give you answer in the morning..."

[FancyCat]

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by FancyCat

[Grigb]

No significant updates yet. But there is interesting post

 

It describes possible UKR intent for the whole Izum offensive operation:

1. UKR capture/block Kupyanks
2. UKR Advance from Dolyna area toward Oskil cutting several roads from Izum
3. UKR destroy few bridges

And the whole RU Izum grouping is in zh*pa.  

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, but that intervention would quite likely occur before any nukes were even launched. And possibly with Russian connivance.  Make of that what you will.

*****

....Escalation is a deep rabbit hole and my appetite for such what-ifs is pretty limited.  But here is my own view, worth everything you paid for it:

1.  I see no signs that the actual men in actual charge in actual Russia today are up for nuclear war, collectively or individually.  The evil is banal, not mad.

2.  Intellectually, Putin is a product of the Soviet technocracy (their 'PMC'). He has amassed supreme power by coldly and systematically pulling its levers for the benefit of his clique. Those levers include using the legacy Soviet military machine in his own backyard, with its adventurism fueled by cyclical resource windfalls. Why not, it's sitting there idle and rusting?

Like most such apparatchiks (not just Russians btw), he has no actual notion of how to create capital, only how to scheme to control and expend existing capital.

3.  Philosophically, while Putin is clearly in earnest about '(re)gathering the Russian lands' (a standard Russian view, not something he invented), and also believes the Motherland is by default menaced by the rest of humanity, there is nothing at all in his emotional makeup or observed personal behaviour to suggest a Hitler monomania or messianism, Russian flavoured or otherwise.

The man doesn't especially enjoy speechifying, kissing babies, or the sound of his own voice in small crowds, or the company of others. He does get a smug satisfaction from triggering others, but it's a catlike kind of emotion, carefully bounded.  He's INTJ, a calculating introvert.

4. Putin knows now he miscalculated terribly when Ukraine didn't fold on Day 3. His Martingale double dow bets with the war machine had worked up to then, and finally they didn't.

Since then, he has been scrambling to salvage whatever he can by using up the rest of what blood and treasure he started with, bluff and divide his enemies wherever he can, and hoping he can outlast ________________. 

5. Putin is 70 and ailing. I suspect he is resigned to dying in a couple of years, and like most of us old folks does not especially fear it.

Again, there is nothing in the man's visible persona to suggest he wants a legacy that includes triggering doomsday -- or more likely failing foolishly if he tried -- even if he had nothing else to lose. He is not the Mad King.

FWIW

Excellent post

44 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Early on in this thread when nukes were brought up and NATO response there was a link to an interview or statement from I think Gen. Hertling (sp?). He advised that the western response would only be kinetic but it would be devastating. With what we know now I can imagine the hate, pain and discontent that western cruise missiles and air power could unleash on Russia. 

With that being said and the other talk of Putin being deposed, I don't think there is much to be worried about. From his recent praising of the non RA units and cold shouldering the top brass to his early alienation and imprisonment of a bunch of FSB he is putting himself in an exit position where he can blame everyone else and keep the Russian people on his side. Without the support of the people the Nats don't stand a chance to take him out. The oligarchs have been sent strong messages. The military is committing Hari-Kari on the steppes of Ukraine. The liberals don't have the strength or power. 

He can give a big speech to the Russian people and point out the faulty intel from the FSB prior to pulling the trigger. He can round up each and every member of the military that isn't absolutely loyal and have them shot or worse due to their corruption that gutted all the magnificent technology that would have allowed the RA to win. Then as icing on the cake he can spin a yarn to the west about how he was able to override and stop the decisions to use WMD's up to and including nukes to save western Europe. 

That will keep him in power after the RA collapses. If we have a spectacular collapse in Kherson and Kharkiv I won't be surprised if he orders a complete withdraw and does the above. That saves him for now. How they will manage to keep the federation together over the next 5 years I have no idea. 

 

For LLF: "I'll give you answer in the morning..."

Outstanding post

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

No significant updates yet. But there is interesting post

 

It describes possible UKR intent for the whole Izum offensive operation:

1. UKR capture/block Kupyanks
2. UKR Advance from Dolyna area toward Oskil cutting several roads from Izum
3. UKR destroy few bridges

And the whole RU Izum grouping is in zh*pa.  

GrigB your contribution is nearly priceless

Steve, can we please get more likes? This much amazing stuff requires more likes.

[Taranis]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Soldier on the video says that our arty shells impact too close, so we lay down

 

Very interesting to see Ukrainian markings on VABs

[Huba]

Couldn't choose better 48h to go (mostly) offline. Let's get started with a bit of humor:

[Battlefront.com]

Yeah, I'm up.  Stupid PC screwed up something and I had to stay up late to fix it.  Going to bed now, but of course I had to check in before nodding off for a few hours!

Apparently the RU Nat's gleeful celebration of the destruction of the 128th Brigade was a wee bit premature.  Either they, or perhaps their ghosts, just raised the Ukrainian flag over Novovoznesenske:

https://censor.net/en/video_news/3365812/soldiers_of_128th_brigade_raised_ukrainian_flag_in_village_of_novovoznesenske_in_kherson_region_video

This further cuts off a bunch of positions in the northeastern corner from easy supply.  The pocket is definitely taking shape.

If that doesn't depress the RU Nats, maybe yesterday's ISW report pointing out that Ukraine drove 20km into Russian territory and retook 400km2 back under Ukrainian control.  And they did it in one day.  You'd have to go back a LONG ways to show a single day that the Russians took that much ground in a day.  Hell, for the last month all gains front wide might not have equaled that much.

But yes, I understand.  Russia is all powerful and at any moment they'll prove it.  Oddly enough, I still think I'm going to sleep soundly

Steve

[Pete Wenman]

 

Stolen from the ACIG forum

[Grigb]

Not much useful info so far except RU claim they fend off UKR attack "at crossroad to Izum". Well, it looks like UKR reached Vesele.

regarding the roads - RU has another option to bypass Vessel by turning to Buhaivka. The same name as in one RU solder report about UKR penetration of RU defenses.   

Edited September 8, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU generals experienced severe butthurt looking at depth of UKR penetration and announced from now on they are going to do the same

Quote

Donetsk. THE MILITARY ALIGNS THE FRONT LINE. THEY SAY THAT FROM NOW ON CITIES AND VILLAGES WILL NOT BE TAKEN, FOR A MORE CONVENIENT WAY FORWARD.

As I understand it, the settlements encountered will be bypassed to strangle resistance in the encirclement, in fact in the [RU] rear.

 

[paxromana]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU generals experienced severe butthurt looking at depth of UKR penetration and announced from now on they are going to do the same

 

But ... but ... but ... that would imply they are copying untermenschen tactics ...

Well, trying to anyway ...

Edited September 8, 2022 by paxromana

[Taranis]

7 minutes ago, paxromana said:

But ... but ... but ... that would imply they are copying untermenschen tactics ...

Well, trying to anyway ...

The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 

[fireship4]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The man doesn't especially enjoy speechifying, kissing babies, or the sound of his own voice in small crowds, or the company of others.

A notable exception to the second: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1554584145086619651.html

[LongLeftFlank]

53 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

A notable exception to the second: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1554584145086619651.html

Ew. Fair enough. He is definitely not a healthy human being, but otoh the creep does not seem to be known for throwing this kind of histrionics....

The Führer "suddenly got up, and becoming very nervous, walked up and down... suddenly he stopped in the middle of the room and stood there staring. His voice was blurred, and his behavior that of a completely abnormal person. He spoke in staccato phrases: 'If there should be war, then I shall build U-boats, build U-boats, U-boats, U-boats, U-boats'...then he pulled himself together, raised his voice as though addressing a large audience and shrieked: 'I shall build airplanes, build airplanes, airplanes, airplanes, and I shall annihilate my enemies!'  He seemed more like a phantom than a real person. I stared in amazement and turne to see how Goring was reacting but he did not turn a hair."

Anyone who hears differently of course, please do speak up. Civilisation could depend on it.

P.S.  And yes, Putin does in fact give speeches. But they aren't exactly ones that whip mobs into a frenzy...

https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/vladimirputin7theasterneconomicforum.htm

Edited September 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[riptides]

Did we hear this before? Somewhere...?

 

[cyrano01]

58 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU generals experienced severe butthurt looking at depth of UKR penetration and announced from now on they are going to do the same

 

Hell-Fire, did these people not go to staff college.

Edited September 8, 2022 by cyrano01

[Taranis]

16 minutes ago, riptides said:

Did we hear this before? Somewhere...?

 

I find it way too simplistic to say that. Everyone on the forum agrees that everything is always much more complicated than it seems. That's like saying that quality is better than quantity . It depends on the relationship between the two and many other factors. "Quantity has a quality all its own"

Of course, the best thing is to have a lot of precise weapons with lots of information

[cyrano01]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is also a shock effect on western sensibilities.  We have not seen a war like this, even from afar, in some time (or at least not one we pay attention to - sorry Yemen).   We are invested in the war, but it does not look like any war we have been in since Vietnam or Korea.  For example, attacking a peer force that is dug in, 5:1 casualties is not crazy at the tactical level in an attack, they are trading lives for results and that is an equation we have simply forgotten.  None of our recent wars, and we had days on them trust me, are anywhere close to this.  In fact if we had an entire platoon wiped out in Iraq of Afghanistan it would have had major political results.  We make the mistake of applying our old metrics to this fight and they do not add up because this is a very different fight.

Quoi qu'on fasse, on perd beaucoup de monde (Whatever you do, you lose a lot of men)

Although I don't think the Ukrainian generals are likely to have an apptite for the casualty levels that Mangin regarded as the norm.

[Huba]

Blinken is on a visit in Kyiv to discuss the contents of next arms package.