How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

Don't forget Kharkov was protected by the 93rd Mechanized brigade, with 92nd to it's North. This was around May. 93rd was so successful that they showed off quite a few captured T-80BVMs pretty early on in the war. They were also responsible for the ground gained in that direction before September (AFAIK). I would argue Kharkov was protected by the best for a long time. I never saw the Donestk Airport documentaries but I'm pretty sure there is one about the 93rd's participation there. 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And I am back for a couple of minutes.

RU soldier reports at 21:16

• UKR tactics are smart

The irony is, they are also Old School

12 minutes ago, Grigb said:

• They avoid urban battles and just move on with their BTGrs
• Following groups surround RU troops left behind
• RU troops left behind have no heavy weapons so cannot do anything against UKR

 

(*fist pump* x 2)

This is exactly what is needed and demonstrates again why Russia fails so miserably when it attacks.  When Russia attacks the frontline forces are pretty much it.  Nobody coming behind them because Russia doesn't have enough forces even for defense.  Frontline forces grind their way into Ukrainian positions and either fail and fall back or succeed and cease moving forward due to losses.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has enough infantry and it has concentrated it appropriately.  SF moves in and mucks things up, 1st rate mech units come in next and blast their way through and onto objectives significantly beyond where they just fought.  Infantry, perhaps heavily TD, moves in behind the mech forces to keep the bypassed Russians from moving.  Since the TD is generally competent and well motivated and the Russians they are surrounding are not, it's not a fight the Russians can win.

To counter this Russia can't just use artillery and air, or even isolated pockets of armor.  It needs infantry... a lot of it.  They need to not only slow down the Ukrainian thrusts, but have enough forces bypassed to mount a viable defense instead of being cut into tiny pockets and eliminated.

This war was lost by Russia because they never, ever had enough infantry to do a full scale invasion.  It's only gotten worse for them since.  On the other hand, Ukraine had enough forces to start with and they've only gotten stronger since then.

Doesn't take a genius to do the math on this one.

Steve

[sburke]

Trying to imagine how those suckers who got sent into the Kherson cauldron feel knowing that odds are right now Russian high command is totally focused on Izyum.  Sorry boys, you're on your own now.  Good luck.

Edited September 7, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Don't forget Kharkov was protected by the 93rd Mechanized brigade, with 92nd to it's North. This was around May. 93rd was so successful that they showed off quite a few captured T-80BVMs pretty early on in the war. They were also responsible for the ground gained in that direction before September (AFAIK). I would argue Kharkov was protected by the best for a long time. I never saw the Donestk Airport documentaries but I'm pretty sure there is one about the 93rd's participation there. 

I agree with this entirely.  It is one reason why I've never feared this front cracking since Russia got pushed back.  However, they lacked the concentrated strength to move forward in any significant way.  I didn't think it would take much to get a decent local counter offensive going in this area, but it seems (as per my previous comments) that Ukraine felt it could do even better than that.  And it looks like they were correct to!

BTW, notice how much of an effect this has on us and the RU Nats.  We're not talking about Kherson much, are we?  Yet we here are pretty convinced that Kherson is still the main effort.  That says a lot.

Whatever Ukraine intended the Kharkiv offensive to achieve, I'd say it has already largely succeeded.  They could end it tomorrow and chalk it up as a major victory.  The good thing is I don't think they will stop!  I doubt VERY much that Russia has any significant defense in depth here for four reasons:

1. Horrible command structures
2. Hubris/complacency meant nobody prioritized it
3. Lack of resources to create a meaningful defense line.  I bet even if the local area commander recognized the threat, and requested X resources to set up defenses, I bet he didn't get much of what he asked for.  I think it all went to Kherson
4. Units being stripped away meant whatever was left had increasing problems manning the front, not to mention digging stuff in the rear

If this is correct, then Ukraine can advance almost anywhere it wants now PROVIDED they have enough infantry to seal off isolated pockets along the way.  Shouldn't take that much per settlement (a company each) or a lot of time (couple of days tops), so things might start to slow down but they won't stop as the earlier pockets are cleared up and the infantry can move forward again.

What will stop Ukraine?  Siverskyi Donets could pose a major problem if Russia blows the bridges and mounts a decent defense on the opposite side.  Simple exhaustion, including outrunning supplies.  A mass of 3rd Corps units thrown headlong into the fight might be enough to stabilize the situation for a while, perhaps the rest of the season.

Steve

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Don't forget Kharkov was protected by the 93rd Mechanized brigade, with 92nd to it's North. This was around May. 93rd was so successful that they showed off quite a few captured T-80BVMs pretty early on in the war. They were also responsible for the ground gained in that direction before September (AFAIK). I would argue Kharkov was protected by the best for a long time. I never saw the Donestk Airport documentaries but I'm pretty sure there is one about the 93rd's participation there. 

They did fight mostly in Izyum direction, if I remember, however they could relocate or detach some subunits.

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine, on the other hand, has enough infantry and it has concentrated it appropriately.  SF moves in and mucks things up, 1st rate mech units come in next and blast their way through and onto objectives significantly beyond where they just fought.  Infantry, perhaps heavily TD, moves in behind the mech forces to keep the bypassed Russians from moving.  Since the TD is generally competent and well motivated and the Russians they are surrounding are not, it's not a fight the Russians can win.

I think we still don't know enough about this operation, but something like this picture is starting to crystalize (though Russian milbloggers can try to cope with the fact by seeing SF and "foreign mercenaries" where there are normal units, for example). Also we should add deep strikes, even Kupyansk is reportedly being shelled like in Chinese New Year.

Now, crucial questions:

1. What reserves Russians have at its disposal that can stop it/how quickly they can move them from other sectors.

2.Do Ukrainians have enough forces in the back to keep tempo and secure such amounts of terrain?

3. Where is 1st Tank Brigade

ED: Missed last posts. But questions are crucialll still. Very dynamic several days ahead of us.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A mass of 3rd Corps units thrown headlong into the fight might be enough to stabilize the situation for a while, perhaps the rest of the season.

Half of third Corps is south of Donetsk, and the other half is halfway Kherson. AFU didn't plan this much this well to miss a trick about screwing with rail lines and even road bridges to make that the longest trip possible. I also think there is great chance that the Russians will panic so badly they feed their reserves in in little pieces. They don't have the sense to pick a line they can actually hold, too worried about political consequences.

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ab article in WP about wounded UA soldiers in southern offensive:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/

Hard to tell larger picture form it, but several things stands out (note it can be localized):

-Russian artillery was not suppressed and outgunned Ukrainian one.

-At least one soldier claims Russian tanks drove out of cement covers (sheds or bunkers), shoot and get back.

-Russians EW did hijacked drones.

-Casulaties are high; perhaps even very high. However, strange proportion on KIA/WIA, with significant amount of latters.

-Seems many of them came from inexperienced units; they still wander that using cellphones can bring Russian shells (unless journalist overinterpreted something)

-Despite being wounded and grudinng, morale seems very high. These guys seems determined to take back their land.

 

 

He's a good reporter and I don't doubt a word of it. That said, it's kind of like the bomber diagram from WWII.  You'll hear about the worst situations from the wounded because that's where the most wounded will come from. It's certainly sobering to read but too much can be read into it.

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Ah Twitter is an endless dumpster filled with brainless wannabes. 

It's a little more than a BTG. 14 truck transports? I doubt the VDV rides into battle on trucks, and no mechanized brigade has a truck mounted infantry formation that I know of. 

It's very likely that some BTG level support vehicles were killed. 

It's always best to be realistic

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Artkin said:

It's always best to be realistic

As the great Logan Ninefingers (AKA The Bloody Nine) always said "you have to be realistic".  Good advice to live by.

[FancyCat]

From CIT, they list the following potential reserve units that can be redeployed to counter: 

https://te.legra.ph/Sitrep-for-September-6-09-07

Quote

 Group of Troops "Center", which was transferred from the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk defense line to the Donetsk area is positioned relatively nearby. It could redeploy to the Kharkiv axis soon.

3rd Army Corps, recently transferred to the Rostov region, can be deployed to the frontline fairly quickly.

There is also a concentration of troops in the town of Biryuch, Belgorod region. 

 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

He's a good reporter and I don't doubt a word of it. That said, it's kind of like the bomber diagram from WWII.  You'll hear about the worst situations from the wounded because that's where the most wounded will come from. It's certainly sobering to read but too much can be read into it.

There is also a shock effect on western sensibilities.  We have not seen a war like this, even from afar, in some time (or at least not one we pay attention to - sorry Yemen).   We are invested in the war, but it does not look like any war we have been in since Vietnam or Korea.  For example, attacking a peer force that is dug in, 5:1 casualties is not crazy at the tactical level in an attack, they are trading lives for results and that is an equation we have simply forgotten.  None of our recent wars, and we had days on them trust me, are anywhere close to this.  In fact if we had an entire platoon wiped out in Iraq of Afghanistan it would have had major political results.  We make the mistake of applying our old metrics to this fight and they do not add up because this is a very different fight.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

3. Where is 1st Tank Brigade

Good question!  According to MilitaryLand Ukrainian Tank Brigade units are deployed as follows (my "Fronts", with Donbas South = Donetesk City vacinity):
 

Kharkiv Front (4x Tank Bn)

• 10th Tank Battalion, 3rd Tank Brigade
• 4th Tank Brigade

Donbas Front North (4x Tank Bn)

• 3rd Tank Brigade (less 10th Tank Battalion)
• 1st Tank Brigade (less 1st Tank Battalion)

Donbas Front South (0x Tank Bn)

Zaporizhzhia Front (1x Tank Bn)

• 1st Tank Battalion, 1st Tank Brigade

Kherson Front (6x Tank Bn)

• 5th Tank Brigade
• 17th Tank Brigade

Now that I've got my curiosity up, here's the Mech Brigades (each presumably with 1x Tank Battalion each):

Kharkiv Front (3x Tank Bn)

• 30th Mech Brigade (less 1 Mech BN north of Kyiv)
• 92nd Mech Brigade
• 93rd Mech Brigade (located around Izyum bridgehead)

Donbas Front North (3x Tank Bn)

• 14th Mech Brigade
• 72nd Mech Brigade
• 115th Mech Brigade (I don't know about their internal structure, presume it's standard)

Donbas Front South (4x Tank Bn)

• 53rd Mech Brigade
• 54th Mech Brigade
• 56th Mech Brigade
• 66th Mech Brigade

Zaporizhzhia Front (0x Tank Bn)

Kherson Front (2x Tank Bn)

• 28th Mech Brigade
• 63rd Mech Brigade

Tank battalion totals:

Kharkiv Front = 7 Tank Battalions

Donbas Front North = 7 Tank Battalions

Donbas Front South = 4x Tank Battalions

Zaporizhzhia Front = 1x Tank Battalions

Kherson Front = 8x Tank Battalions

 

If we presume that tank battalions is an indicator of importance, we have Kherson as #1 and Zaporizhzhia as #5.  The largest area of activity by the Russians until now (Donbas North) is tied with Kharkiv, with Donbas South in #4.

Following this presumption, it shows that Ukraine's command values the Kharkiv front as much as the most active Russian sector (Donbas North) and just a tiny bit less than what we presume is its primary offensive (Kherson).

Very interesting.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Guys, can we please all, collectively give @Grigb and @H1nd +1 for these super clear maps and twitter threads.

Grigb, I love how you sometimes do angled views, not just the classic and limited top-down. Highly informative.

Excellent work, sirs.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[Fenris]

Dangers of crossing a pontoon bridge (2nd clip is a little graphic).

 

[Beleg85]

49 minutes ago, billbindc said:

He's a good reporter and I don't doubt a word of it. That said, it's kind of like the bomber diagram from WWII.  You'll hear about the worst situations from the wounded because that's where the most wounded will come from. It's certainly sobering to read but too much can be read into it.

Of course, just I found this article interesting as it alignes with other info from offensive and provide some tactical details. Casualties were unfortunatelly high, and inexperiance (like bunching up) was clearly visible among some attacking units. There are strong Russian forces in the are as well, so Kherson will be much more of a meatgrinder for both sides. Unless Russia decide to move some troops from there.

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There is also a shock effect on western sensibilities.  We have not seen a war like this, even from afar, in some time (or at least not one we pay attention to - sorry Yemen).   We are invested in the war, but it does not look like any war we have been in since Vietnam or Korea.  For example, attacking a peer force that is dug in, 5:1 casualties is not crazy at the tactical level in an attack, they are trading lives for results and that is an equation we have simply forgotten.  None of our recent wars, and we had days on them trust me, are anywhere close to this.  In fact if we had an entire platoon wiped out in Iraq of Afghanistan it would have had major political results.  We make the mistake of applying our old metrics to this fight and they do not add up because this is a very different fight.

Yup. I don't even try to imagine what total cost in lossess will be for Ukraine at the end of this war. I am afraid even our current estimates as to casualties may be too low, especially regarding WIA. There was another train of many wagons full of wounded that arrived for treatment lately into Poland. Now it is even possible to meet recovering UA soldiers here in the street, apart from those already taking training (ops, I should be more quiet.. ).

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good question!  According to MilitaryLand Ukrainian Tank Brigade units are deployed as follows:

Great find and good reasoning. I forgot about his website and map. Ofc. healthy dose of scepticism regarding the positioning is advisable. There are many OSINT-ers specializing in this whose units differ greatly; curiously, they seem to misplace UA units much more often than Russian ones.

23 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Dangers of crossing a pontoon bridge (2nd clip is a little graphic).

T.Theiner did an analysis of that video; he thinks it was TB2 that hit the ferry and Kherson is now full of drones hunting for Russians. But it seems he may be jumping into conclusions much too early basing on one shoddy clip, as we don't observe the moment of impact.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567650259483910145

Edited September 8, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Great find and good reasoning. I forgot about his website and map. Ofc. healthy dose of scepticism regarding the positioning is advisable. There are many OSINT-ers specializing in this whose units differ greatly; curiously, they seem to misplace UA units much more often than Russian ones.

Yup, heavy dose of caution about positions.  First of all, they can change at any time!  However, for the most part I think groups like MilitaryLand do a good job.  I didn't see anything on there that contradicts Haiduk or other sources, for example.

Schlottman has better accounting of Russian units, but he lets a lot of time lapse between updates.

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

T.Theiner did an analysis of that video; he thinks it was TB2 that hit the ferry and Kherson is now full of drones hunting for Russians. But it seems he may be jumping into conclusions much too early basing on one shoddy clip, as we don't observe the moment of impact.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567650259483910145

It makes sense to use a TB2 for the ferries as it can target in realtime.  Plus, this frees up artillery attention for other purposes.  Unlike the bridges, TB2 has enough oomph to make a hit count.

Steve

[Beleg85]

A picture of Ukrainian soldier, who equipped himself with his own miznefet. I saw it several times already but it seem to be unusual practice in general.

Also cool patch. Pink Floyd still rules.

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It makes sense to use a TB2 for the ferries as it can target in realtime.  Plus, this frees up artillery attention for other purposes.  Unlike the bridges, TB2 has enough oomph to make a hit count.

Yes, just it is very precious to fly so far behind frontline; if true, Russian AA must be in terrible shape indeed. There are other possibilities- partisans or SF with short range drones, Warmates, a single GLMRS while other hir water, or something else. Really he draws too far-reaching conclusions here.

[danfrodo]

And in case you want another look at the good news for today, a summary of eastern progress up at DailyKos.  As is pointed out at this summary, question starts to come about how far can UKR push while maintaining LOC.  As Steve mentioned, UKR probably using TD or other lower quality troops to protect the LOC, but this is already a long way, it's 40km, with enemies on both sides of the salient.  RU will probably throw everything its got locally in piecemeal attacks, which is good for weakening other sectors while hopefully not overwhelming the UKR forces in the salient.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/7/2121408/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-rushes-toward-Kupiansk-Russia-s-logistical-hub

[Fenris]

PzH2000 sighting

 

[LongLeftFlank]

"I destroyed the Austrians by simply marching" - some Corsican or other

....so the tiny Russia-boosters echo chamber in the West (and it isn't just rightists) has been confidently declaiming all along that mighty Russia is fighting the SMO only with one fist in order to minimize disruption at home. Guns and butter, etc.

Well now would be the time for them to bring that other meaty fist from behind their back. It's right across their border, short(er) interior lines.

What's it gonna be? Yes or no. [I can wait all night]....

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

"I destroyed the Austrians by simply marching" - some Corsican or other

....so the tiny Russia-boosters echo chamber in the West (and it isn't just rightists) has been confidently declaiming all along that mighty Russia is fighting the SMO only with one fist in order to minimize disruption at home. Guns and butter, etc.

Well now would be the time for them to bring that other meaty fist from behind their back. It's right across their border, short(er) interior lines.

What's it gonna be? Yes or no. [I can wait all night]....

My version of this is "Russia ain't magic". I keep saying it and what they are saying now is "Well, aren't you worried about tactical nukes?". There will always be something.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

My version of this is "Russia ain't magic". I keep saying it and what they are saying now is "Well, aren't you worried about tactical nukes?". There will always be something.

Tactical nukes ain't magic either, against an army that's already learned not to clump in one place too long.  Would it hurt?  Yes, in volume.

And the moment Russia's leadership uncorks that bottle, they become an urgent problem for the rest of humanity (including a lot of Russian officials and officers) to solve.  Even Great Helmsman Xi lines up firmly against Armageddon.  Hyperbole aside, there is no serious constituency or value case for flipping over the chessboard of human civilisation.

(Mother Nature is already moving some pieces around, sure, but that's OT)

...I just don't see it, any more than I see Strelkov's 'five additional VDV divisions descending from heaven with the angels' (I think that line is from like, April, so he already knew they were hosed)

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Tactical nukes ain't magic either, against an army that's already learned not to clump in one place too long.  Would it hurt?  Yes, in volume.

And the moment Russia's leadership uncorks that bottle, they become an urgent problem for the rest of humanity (including a lot of Russian officials and officers) to solve.  Even Great Helmsman Xi lines up firmly against Armageddon.  Hyperbole aside, there is no serious constituency or value case for flipping over the chessboard of human civilisation.

(Mother Nature is already moving some pieces around, sure, but that's OT)

...I just don't see it, any more than I see Strelkov's 'five additional VDV divisions descending from heaven with the angels' (I think that line is from like, April, so he already knew they were hosed)

As I've said in various ways, nukes make everything worse for Putin tactically, strategically, economically and however you summarize the idea that he wants to wake up alive in the morning. It's *possible* they go that far but I don't see it as likely.

Edited September 8, 2022 by billbindc

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As I've said in various ways, nukes make everything worse for Putin tactically, strategically, economically and however you summarize the idea that he wants to wake up alive in the morning. It's *possible* they go that far but I don't see it as likely.

so what would we do?  I asked this a few pages ago.  I think increased sanctions, maybe some blockades.  Also this should turn china and india and maybe even iran away. 

Would NATO intervene then in some way?  And if Putin already is turning to nukes would he just keep escalating?  I suppose NATO intervention would be mostly by air, but what would they attack?

Hopefully someone would shoot Putin if he tried to do this.