How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Some humor....

some really really good humor, thx 

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

That leads to some panic behavior (remember toilet paper shortage?) And that panic behavior reinforces RU perception that things are bad even though they might not be that bad yet. And more people start panicking and then it is self fulfilling panic that might not have any relation to reality.

I look at that kind of thing as a co-ordination problem.  Sure there is plenty of toilet paper, but if everyone else panics, we better stock up as there really will be a shortage.  Perhaps that applies in this situation - there is a real reason to panic if everyone is panicking, if the panic itself has some direct effect.  Loss of belief in a leader, loss of confidence that the flank is secured, etc.

 

18 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Some humor....

Great meme.  Galeev's recent call for memes against Rheinmetal missed the mark for me, and I think it's quite interesting why it wasn't successful.  It was a top down call for memes, to a certain specification, not in line with the cultural context of memes of this type.  Like saying to the country - 'Oi, give me some plans for new energy sources'.  Creativity doesn't work best that way.  Neither does the selection effect: this meme spread because it's bloody clever.

[Huba]

Nice set of satellite photos showing columns of RU vehicles waiting for ferrying in and out of Kherson. It will be interesting to see if UA will be able to reliably interdict the movement through the river Given that GMLRS travel time to the crossings is probably around 1 minute, for sure less than 2, rather not enough to disperse even if warned about launch immediately, I guess the primary question is of  UA ISR.

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

man I'd hate to be a driver in those columns.  They should just paint a target on the roof of the trucks.

[Huba]

New ISW assessment is out, and it's a first since a long time that is really interesting. They are mostly working with the same sources as @Grigb I think, and more or less interpret them the same. In their take, Kostyrka is not taken or even contested; FIRMS shows the fires there though.

 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

and just what is that supposed to mean?  Perhaps he wants to attack Poland?  Or launch offensive from Byelarus?  Nuclear dirty bomb via power plant?  What measures does this clown have in mind???  The right measure was pull out of Kherson to shore up the rest of the stolen territory.  That was the only measure they had.  

One of their main complaints is why Russia has not turned the government quarter of Kiev into ruins.

Tbf a bit of a valid concern if I were pro-Russian and convinced that Zelensky and co are Nazis intent on destroying Russia by driving Ukraine into ruin.

If Russia really is attempting to use the terrorism narrative, I would also question why terrorist leaders in Ukraine don't get the same cruise missile treatment as Dzhokhar Dudayev.

I am not personally convinced Russia does not have the capability to kill military leadership and Zelensky and the Rada but I do think there is a very high chance of failure and failure would be the worse outcome of a strike.

 

[FancyCat]

8 hours ago, Rokko said:

Too close for comfort.

The 2nd tweet, geolocation evidence from /r/combatfootage indicates these are UKR forces getting hit.

 

[chuckdyke]

Reason Russia is eventually going to lose it. They ignore completely the civilians once they invade. What we say in Australia a good fence makes a good neighbour. The Soviets had one it was called the Iron Curtain the problem was it run through Germany.

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Just when I was going to write some response about...

Heh   Well, in my theory this is the sort of thing we're going to see happen more frequently.  And this Wargonzoo guy seems to have been a pretty big deal.  He showed up with the tip of spear DLPR units and wasn't afraid to get shot at.  If the Kremlin thinks he needs to be sat on to shut him up, that's a pretty big step against the RU Nats.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://wartranslated.com/lpr-volunteer-murz-on-the-ukrainian-offensive-and-its-consequences-for-russia/

Seems to think the war is all but lost for Russia regardless of how the Kherson offensive comes out. Says the Russian army is simply out of competent technical specialist and isn't getting more anytime soon.

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

One of their main complaints is why Russia has not turned the government quarter of Kiev into ruins.

Tbf a bit of a valid concern if I were pro-Russian and convinced that Zelensky and co are Nazis intent on destroying Russia by driving Ukraine into ruin.

If Russia really is attempting to use the terrorism narrative, I would also question why terrorist leaders in Ukraine don't get the same cruise missile treatment as Dzhokhar Dudayev.

I am not personally convinced Russia does not have the capability to kill military leadership and Zelensky and the Rada but I do think there is a very high chance of failure and failure would be the worse outcome of a strike.

 

I think part of what is holding them back is a delusion they might still win. Putin wants to hold a parade in the government quarter, install a new government and so on. Knocking it down means admitting that he has lost essentially.

It would also make excellent propaganda for the Ukrainians. And it is very unlikely to disrupt the government very  much unless they get Zelensky.  His body guards are obviously competent to have made it this far, I assume they have a continuously updated plan for getting him to a bomb shelter on 90 seconds notice.

[akd]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://wartranslated.com/lpr-volunteer-murz-on-the-ukrainian-offensive-and-its-consequences-for-russia/

Seems to think the war is all but lost for Russia regardless of how the Kherson offensive comes out. Says the Russian army is simply out of competent technical specialist and isn't getting more anytime soon.

He just says they need more bodies, and if they are conscripted bodies from Russian proper, the military will be motivated to adopt proper tactics, which is an amazing bit of magical thinking.

Edited September 3, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

This is mostly on-topic, since it's about war in Ukraine.  I just got email from Slitherine showing CM Black Sea 30% off at $42.  So if you've been on the fence it's time to get into the fight.

Oh, and shock force2 + its bundles all 30% off.  Dang, them's good deals. 

I'm fighting in Italy this week but I think I might need to return to the modern world ASAP

Edited September 3, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[dan/california]

I bought the modern bundle months ago. Nothing left to buy until something new comes out, and Steve is still full opsec on that. For reasons, i get it but.... just the tineist of bones? Some of the little mouse teeth they find in the very best fossil deposits?

[Beleg85]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh   Well, in my theory this is the sort of thing we're going to see happen more frequently.  And this Wargonzoo guy seems to have been a pretty big deal.  He showed up with the tip of spear DLPR units and wasn't afraid to get shot at.  If the Kremlin thinks he needs to be sat on to shut him up, that's a pretty big step against the RU Nats.

Well, we don't know- maybe he was just drinking heavily to forget aboout the guys he killed by his slopiness and they  put him on 24h to sober up. Like Girkin.

Basically, that is how I'd imagine Nationalist revolution in Russia ending:

(joking of course)

[chrisl]

8 hours ago, Rokko said:

I think if this happened to me in a CM turn, I would still consider this platoon as a write-off. More likely than not there's more shells coming from where the first three came from and the guns are basically already dialed in.

Now that you say it, though, I don't think I've seen any footage of airbursts at all from this war so far, which seems odd.

I've seen exactly one video that I'll probably never find again that showed a barrage of nearly all airbursts.  You could see the puffs of smoke from the shells and shadows on the ground, then the smoke drifting.

managed to find it:

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by chrisl

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, fireship4 said:

Galeev's recent call for memes against Rheinmetal missed the mark for me, and I think it's quite interesting why it wasn't successful.  It was a top down call for memes, to a certain specification, not in line with the cultural context of memes of this type.  Like saying to the country - 'Oi, give me some plans for new energy sources'.  Creativity doesn't work best that way.  Neither does the selection effect: this meme spread because it's bloody clever.

Agreed. Here's the meme I would have mobilised personally, although I don't Tweet....

https://thumbs.worthpoint.com/zoom/images1/1/0715/15/little-orphan-annie-poster-tribune_1_3e99246f2adc43390d0038fb1227187f.jpg

 

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

 

Looks like the Russians towed it and there are no visible signs of battle damage.  Seems like it was abandoned by the Ukrainians.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Well, we don't know- maybe he was just drinking heavily to forget aboout the guys he killed by his slopiness and they  put him on 24h to sober up. Like Girkin.

Could be, but I doubt it.  I mean, I bet he will be released soon, I just don't think he was detained for something unrelated to his reporting.

To me this seems to be more evidence of warning shots against the highly visible RU Nat celebrities.  Especially ones with strong ties to DLPR, such as WarGonzo has.  Which gets me back to a point we've danced around with a little bit.

What do we know about Putin for sure?  He doesn't like people criticizing him or his regime in public. The more serious the criticism the more likely the person will have a tragic "accident", been found to have unpaid taxes, or simply go quiet.  Putin also doesn't like people trying to challenge his power by using criticism to gather support.  Putin's tolerance level has gotten lower and lower every year to the point that there is no independent media at all, no meaningful political opposition, and certainly no public protests that aren't cracked down on hard.

The likes of Girkin, Murz, and WarGonzo are critics with large followings, yet they aren't in jail, in the grave, or quietly going about their business.  Nope, they are loud and they are getting louder about what they think about this war and who is to blame for it going so poorly.

One theory is that this is because these guys have influential people keeping them out of trouble.  That might have been the case at some time in the last 8 years, but I don't think that's what's going on now.  Putin doesn't seem to be the sort to let something like this slide just because the guy that set him up with his last 5 mistresses asked Putin to give these guys a break.  Especially now that the war is going so horribly wrong and the RU Nat voices are getting even more critical and specific.

Logically, if Putin is not acting against these guys because of influence, then he must not be acting against them for some other reason.  Laziness?  Nope.  Lack of resources?  Nope.  Inability to clamp down on many people at once?  Nope.  Keep looking for reasons and one will find yourself looking at the most likely reason -> fear.

Think about it.  Putin's track record of a man of action and ruthlessness has some obvious exceptions.  He's been very careful to not antagonize NATO to the point of a shooting war.  He's not gone with full mobilization despite it being the obvious course of action.  The Black Sea Fleet is no longer in active use.  He's certainly not shown any willingness to back down and withdraw his forces from Ukraine.  Using a nuke on Kyiv is another one.  Etc.  What is the common conclusion about why these things are the way they are?  Fear of consequences.

I don't think it is a leap to ascribe fear of consequences for Putin's lack of direct and overt action against the leading RU Nats' voices.

Once again being logical about this, if Putin fears acting against these guys because of the possible consequences, then Putin must perceive the consequences as being fairly dangerous to him.  That means the RU Nats are dangerous.

I think this is better presumption than the RU Nats are just an annoyance that Putin, for some reason, isn't concerned about.

Steve

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like the Russians towed it and there are no visible signs of battle damage.  Seems like it was abandoned by the Ukrainians.

Steve

It is a 50 year old excuse for an APC, If the crew got out and located a Russian position or two it is a good trade. If we wanted perfection we should have sent 500  Bradleys and 250 Abrams. Or just sent a couple of U.S. heavy brigades and ended this. We asked them to do it by themselves on a shoe string, it is not going to be perfect. Compare this to the crewman running TOWARDS a Caesar to get it out from under Russian counter-battery fire, with complete disregard for his own life. They have a pretty good sense of what equipment matters.

Actually it might be older than fifty years.

A vaguely related thought. In the CMBS back story one U.S. medium, and one heavy brigade turn a guaranteed defeat for Ukraine into a near run thing. in the war we actually have two U.S. brigades would end this thing in a week, with a defeat Russia would need three generations to get over. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by dan/california

[kraze]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

One of their main complaints is why Russia has not turned the government quarter of Kiev into ruins.

Tbf a bit of a valid concern if I were pro-Russian and convinced that Zelensky and co are Nazis intent on destroying Russia by driving Ukraine into ruin.

If Russia really is attempting to use the terrorism narrative, I would also question why terrorist leaders in Ukraine don't get the same cruise missile treatment as Dzhokhar Dudayev.

I am not personally convinced Russia does not have the capability to kill military leadership and Zelensky and the Rada but I do think there is a very high chance of failure and failure would be the worse outcome of a strike.

 

Missile striking a presidential building in Kyiv is nigh impossible with what russians have. It's not a White House in the middle of green fields. It's situated in a very dense district with many buildings being higher. Not to mention it's built with measures for occupants to survive a nuclear strike. Also failing to hit it and provide the needed domestic effect will make all possible negotiations impossible down the line - and clearly russians want that option. Which means they aren't winning at all.

Also they tried to strike an Artem factory three times and failed to hit it, causing damage to nearby residential buildings instead, resulting only in more western weapons for Ukraine.

Rada might be easier, but it won't do much, because, really, it's AFU doing the 'diplomacy' now. And AFU isn't an old and very centralized Soviet monster anymore.

Not to mention Kyiv will be covered by NASAMS now - that is most certain.

Edited September 3, 2022 by kraze

[Grigb]

Another RU Glorius Victory - second UKR landing at station was defeated by Glorious RU defenders. 

[dan/california]

Russian losses are spiking enormously since the big push started.

[Grigb]

Rybar made big claims yesterday about Bridgeheads battle that require independent confirmation. So, I will wait for it. However there is one interesting claim that seems to be confirmed by other RU Nats.

Previously RU aviation avoided getting close and personal with dumb bombs due to lessons inflicted on it by UKR MANPADs. It seems yesterday RU aviation got an order to attach dumb bombs and start getting close and personal. And yes, as usual - millions of killed UKR troops. 

• The situation is not as favorable to RU as RU claims.
• RU aviation is committed to battle in the worst possible way and the question is if UKR will be able to attrit it.