How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.

 

Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.

Now that's some funny stuff.

With content like this soon the British will have to take notes from the Ukrainians on effective use of sarcastic humor!

[Letter from Prague]

Speaking of funny picture (just this one and I'll stop, sorry).

 

[Grigb]

I just passed by a good example of what RU public sees. You remember that reporter who had to walk to Pisky unlike UKR one? Well, he managed to walk to Cowshed then returned and called RU TV channel to declare RU victory with a bunch of Goebbels-sized lies.

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I just passed by a good example of what RU public sees. You remember that reporter who had to walk to Pisky unlike UKR one? Well, he managed to walk to Cowshed then returned and called RU TV channel to declare RU victory with a bunch of Goebbels-sized lies.

Well, I'll give him credit for having some pretty big balls!

This shows yet again how propagandists (of any sort) do not feel any shame in lying or cheating.  It's all part of the job.

Steve

[dan/california]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Calling @The_Capt.  Evidence of strategic messaging and hints of how effective it was upon the intended audience...

This brings up an unusually under discussed topic here and almost never talked about elsewhere... the prospect of DPR and/or LPR seeking a separate peace with Ukraine.  Overtly or even covertly.

If the Russian government collapses (surrenders, pulls out troops, coup and internal chaos, etc.) you can bet that the DLPR will be quite anxious to get back with Ukraine in some way.  They need a patron to survive.  They know that, Ukraine knows that.  Count on something happening pretty quickly if Russia is no longer fighting this war.

But what happens the war continues and DLPR feels it is suffering too much because of it?  What if Ukraine starts to counter attack and push DLPR back and Russia can't do a damned thing to stop them?  Might the leadership of DLPR recognize their negotiating position becomes weaker with each passing day?  Might they also start to understand that Russia doesn't have the resources to keep going and that they will prioritize Russian needs first?  And maybe they'll finally realize that THIS is a major reason why Russia never formally annexed DLPR even after February 2022?

It will be interesting to see what happens once Russia starts to show obvious signs defeat is not all that far away.  DLPR will not likely want to go down with the ship, yet they can't fend for themselves.  Defecting is not out of the question.

Steve

If the LPDR is going to make a deal they had better do it soon. The way thy are rounding up every male between fifteen and sixty and marching them off to get killed is making the so called Republics easier to reconquer by the hour. I strongly suspect Ukraine has a  very long list of people it would like to give a very fair trial and a very unpleasant life sentence. Any sort of deal that doesn't involve turning those folks over wholesale has to be made while you have some leverage left. 

There is certainly a deal to be made. A coordinated surprise surrender of a couple of battalions in a critical spot could roll up a huge piece of the Russian lines if done correctly. But timing is everything if you want to do more than sign an unconditional surrender and await your warcrimes trial.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Brilliant!

 

lucky lucky lucky dude.  Out of the war and unharmed.  Hopefully one day he will take back stories of how well he was treated, dispelling myths in at least his own little circle of RU.  

Meanwhile: It's been a couple weeks since the Great Pisky Offensive began, and at the time I said it was a real time test of RU offensive capabilities.  I think we can safely declare that the 'RU spent' camp is the winner.  Even if RU does take Pisky soon, it took weeks to capture this one little spot on the map, which is only one of a dozen little spots on the way to Bakhmut, let alone Slovyansk. 

Brilliant RU propaganda at work again:  Post above by Beleg85 saying Medvedev threatens nukes over loss of visas.  Another post had threats to EU nuclear power plants.  And these are the people in the higher offices in RU?  Even threatening nuclear sabotage/sabotage could be grounds for NATO escalation, let alone restrict visas.  If I've got a nuclear plant, the last thing I now want to do is let a bunch of RU nationals into my country.

[dan/california]

They may or may not already be turning a nice SRBM of their very own already, but I would bet a great deal they are working on it. That 700 km distance From Kharkiv to Moscow is top of mind, too.

Edited August 12, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2022/08/11/this-infantry-squad-vehicle-is-getting-a-laser-to-destroy-drones/

All of this stuff needs to be on the Ukrainian front lines TODAY! Not tomorrow, not next week, TODAY!

[dan/california]

https://www.defensenews.com/miltech/2022/08/11/boeing-nammo-test-ramjet-155-artillery-weapon/

And this just reads like science fiction, but apparently it works.

[Battlefront.com]

In this morning's NYT:

Quote

The official, Anton Geraschenko, an adviser to the minister of internal affairs, said that 60 pilots and technicians had been killed and 100 people wounded when a series of explosions rocked the Saki field on Crimea’s western Black Sea coast on Tuesday. He said the conclusion was based on video evidence and intelligence data, but he offered no further details.

The article also repeats the theory that SOF ops were at least a part of the strike.  This is something I do believe to be true.  While I think the strikes themselves were carried out by missiles, it is very possible, even likely, that "partisans" did things to help with it. 

Previously I speculated that they might have somehow affected Russian radar (generally) and/or AD units (specifically).  These sorts of targets would be vastly easier to "take care of" as they are comparatively isolated.  EW attacks could be conducted very easily without meaningful risk.

Interfering with Russia's AD would explain why there wasn't even an unsuccessful response to the Hrim-2 missiles (if that is what was used).  I don't know how many systems are tasked with covering this sector, but it can't be many.  And as it is on the coast the envelopes of the AD are going to be limited to maximum of 3 compass directions because clearing out Muskva and Snake Island means the approach from the west is wide open.  And guess where the supposed launch came from?  The west.

Based on the science geeks noticing "a disturbance in the force" the attack came from Odessa.  AD in the Kherson area might have posed a problem, but rather conveniently timed HARM strikes took out those assets.  Coincidence?  Likely not.  That left Crimea's AD the only thing to worry about.

A couple of well times partisan attacks (physical and/or EW) would be pretty easy to coordinate and not all that difficult for Ukraine to pull off.  As one Ukrainian official stated this week (paraphrasing) "of course we've got lots of partisans in Crimea.  WTF do you think we've been doing for the last 8 years, sitting around with our thumbs up our butts?"  

Hell, with no training and only a vague concept of how to disable a radar system, I bet *I* could knock out one of these things if someone gave me a 'splody device.  I expect Russian security around these things to be super sloppy.  I'd just have a buddy drive up to the location and offer them a free washing machine while I ran around the other side to do the fun stuff.  Easy peasy, radar squeezy.

Joking aside, I do think Ukraine could easily neutralize a couple of AD systems, such activities would likely go unnoticed by public channels, and certainly Russia isn't going to mention them at all.

To summarize, it looks like Ukraine cleared an AD path between Odessa and the base.  We know HARM was responsible for the strikes against assets that could intercept from the north, but no word on taking out assets located in Crimea.  SOF could have done that and we'd not know about it.  Since Ukraine seems to insist that SOF was a part of this strike, I think that was their contribution to it with the Hrim-2 doing the actual attack.

Steve

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In this morning's NYT:

The article also repeats the theory that SOF ops were at least a part of the strike.  This is something I do believe to be true.  While I think the strikes themselves were carried out by missiles, it is very possible, even likely, that "partisans" did things to help with it. 

Previously I speculated that they might have somehow affected Russian radar (generally) and/or AD units (specifically).  These sorts of targets would be vastly easier to "take care of" as they are comparatively isolated.  EW attacks could be conducted very easily without meaningful risk.

Interfering with Russia's AD would explain why there wasn't even an unsuccessful response to the Hrim-2 missiles (if that is what was used).  I don't know how many systems are tasked with covering this sector, but it can't be many.  And as it is on the coast the envelopes of the AD are going to be limited to maximum of 3 compass directions because clearing out Muskva and Snake Island means the approach from the west is wide open.  And guess where the supposed launch came from?  The west.

Based on the science geeks noticing "a disturbance in the force" the attack came from Odessa.  AD in the Kherson area might have posed a problem, but rather conveniently timed HARM strikes took out those assets.  Coincidence?  Likely not.  That left Crimea's AD the only thing to worry about.

A couple of well times partisan attacks (physical and/or EW) would be pretty easy to coordinate and not all that difficult for Ukraine to pull off.  As one Ukrainian official stated this week (paraphrasing) "of course we've got lots of partisans in Crimea.  WTF do you think we've been doing for the last 8 years, sitting around with our thumbs up our butts?"  

Hell, with no training and only a vague concept of how to disable a radar system, I bet *I* could knock out one of these things if someone gave me a 'splody device.  I expect Russian security around these things to be super sloppy.  I'd just have a buddy drive up to the location and offer them a free washing machine while I ran around the other side to do the fun stuff.  Easy peasy, radar squeezy.

Joking aside, I do think Ukraine could easily neutralize a couple of AD systems, such activities would likely go unnoticed by public channels, and certainly Russia isn't going to mention them at all.

To summarize, it looks like Ukraine cleared an AD path between Odessa and the base.  We know HARM was responsible for the strikes against assets that could intercept from the north, but no word on taking out assets located in Crimea.  SOF could have done that and we'd not know about it.  Since Ukraine seems to insist that SOF was a part of this strike, I think that was their contribution to it with the Hrim-2 doing the actual attack.

Steve

I wonder how badly an S400 responds to a well tuned jammer hooked up to a car battery and pointed right at it before the Lada anonymous departs the scene, a mile or so away from the radar.

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In this morning's NYT:

The article also repeats the theory that SOF ops were at least a part of the strike.  This is something I do believe to be true.  While I think the strikes themselves were carried out by missiles, it is very possible, even likely, that "partisans" did things to help with it. 

Previously I speculated that they might have somehow affected Russian radar (generally) and/or AD units (specifically).  These sorts of targets would be vastly easier to "take care of" as they are comparatively isolated.  EW attacks could be conducted very easily without meaningful risk.

Interfering with Russia's AD would explain why there wasn't even an unsuccessful response to the Hrim-2 missiles (if that is what was used).  I don't know how many systems are tasked with covering this sector, but it can't be many.  And as it is on the coast the envelopes of the AD are going to be limited to maximum of 3 compass directions because clearing out Muskva and Snake Island means the approach from the west is wide open.  And guess where the supposed launch came from?  The west.

Based on the science geeks noticing "a disturbance in the force" the attack came from Odessa.  AD in the Kherson area might have posed a problem, but rather conveniently timed HARM strikes took out those assets.  Coincidence?  Likely not.  That left Crimea's AD the only thing to worry about.

A couple of well times partisan attacks (physical and/or EW) would be pretty easy to coordinate and not all that difficult for Ukraine to pull off.  As one Ukrainian official stated this week (paraphrasing) "of course we've got lots of partisans in Crimea.  WTF do you think we've been doing for the last 8 years, sitting around with our thumbs up our butts?"  

Hell, with no training and only a vague concept of how to disable a radar system, I bet *I* could knock out one of these things if someone gave me a 'splody device.  I expect Russian security around these things to be super sloppy.  I'd just have a buddy drive up to the location and offer them a free washing machine while I ran around the other side to do the fun stuff.  Easy peasy, radar squeezy.

Joking aside, I do think Ukraine could easily neutralize a couple of AD systems, such activities would likely go unnoticed by public channels, and certainly Russia isn't going to mention them at all.

To summarize, it looks like Ukraine cleared an AD path between Odessa and the base.  We know HARM was responsible for the strikes against assets that could intercept from the north, but no word on taking out assets located in Crimea.  SOF could have done that and we'd not know about it.  Since Ukraine seems to insist that SOF was a part of this strike, I think that was their contribution to it with the Hrim-2 doing the actual attack.

Steve

Heh, so a complex attack...well that would turn it all up to eleven.

[FancyCat]

Can’t the leadership of the republics just flee to Russia? Also, I highly doubt much of the leadership of the republics won’t just be tried and imprisoned if they get captured by Ukraine, I can’t see them making a deal as a result. How much leeway can Ukraine give that won’t outrage the rest of the country? How independent can they be from Moscow? Didn’t Putin purge most of the troublesome ones anyway? 
 

The republics were always on paths to annexation into Russia, PR wise regardless of actual steps in the process, a situation where Ukraine is advancing, it probably wouldn’t want to make a deal anyway, a situation where the republics see the writing on the wall, how reliably can the leadership of the republics control their own troops? Don’t we have reports where the DNR and LPR forces are used first, including poorly trained units? Of course, it could be simply that the Russian infantry are just not viable, but it could mean effective Russian control over units of the republics. 
 

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Brilliant RU propaganda at work again:  Post above by Beleg85 saying Medvedev threatens nukes over loss of visas.  Another post had threats to EU nuclear power plants.  And these are the people in the higher offices in RU?  Even threatening nuclear sabotage/sabotage could be grounds for NATO escalation, let alone restrict visas.  If I've got a nuclear plant, the last thing I now want to do is let a bunch of RU nationals into my country.

The funny connection between Medvedev and current ban on visas is that circa 75% of those who now argue against it as imposing "collective guilt" upon poor individuals are exactly the same persons who in the past praised Medvedev as "new, friendlier, more liberal face of Russia".

Again shelling at Zaporozhizhia Nuclear PP. reportedly AA was working heavily. @Haiduk perhaps you know what is happening around the complex and what Ukrainians say about it? It gets in the background of last attack in Crimea, but may be more strategically important. It certainly is threated as such by Kremlin.

[The_Capt]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Again, someone wanting to advance a theory of a ground attack or rather small munitions needs to explain these

These two videos were taken from slightly different angles from north of the airbase.

 

I geolocated the 2nd video to a house somewhere in this neighborhood (I think my image isn't up-to-date with construction):

 45° 7'22.80"N 33°37'2.12"E

BTW, I think the second video is incorrectly edited.  Evidence in first video, and others, suggests the twin explosions happened last.  However, it's very speculative so maybe the video is correctly edited and it's the twins were in the middle.

First video is from somewhere in this general area.  I'm not bothering to try and narrow it down:

 45° 6'59.00"N 33°34'38.60"E

Steve

I will say one thing, if this was missile work, they look like they came in at exactly at the same time.  Gotta be honest, the two fireballs look more like a controlled demolition.

Damn, I really hope it was SOF or a complex attack - that would do so much more damage to the Russians. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

The funny connection between Medvedev and current ban on visas is that circa 75% of those who now argue against it as imposing "collective guilt" upon poor individuals are exactly the same persons who in the past praised Medvedev as "new, friendlier, more liberal face of Russia".

Again shelling at Zaporozhizhia Nuclear PP. reportedly AA was working heavily. @Haiduk perhaps you know what is happening around the complex and what Ukrainians say about it? It gets in the background of last attack in Crimea, but may be more strategically important. It certainly is threated as such by Kremlin.

I wonder how, or if, western countries will comment/act on this.  Purposely targeting a nuke plant is basically cheap way for RU to do tactical nuke.  International community needs to take strong stance against RU doing this.

[hcrof]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder how, or if, western countries will comment/act on this.  Purposely targeting a nuke plant is basically cheap way for RU to do tactical nuke.  International community needs to take strong stance against RU doing this.

No it's an expensive way to do a dirty bomb. I think even Russia would not do that - they can guess the consequences...

[danfrodo]

Just now, hcrof said:

No it's an expensive way to do a dirty bomb. I think even Russia would not do that - they can guess the consequences...

good point, dirty bomb not tac nuke.  but is WMD & nuclear and can spread radiation beyond battlefield.  I think it's becoming more & more evident that an RU defeat needs to happen sooner rather than later, w hope of Putin falling w it.

[akd]

Quote

I recognized my Anatoly in one of the soldiers and contacted Ombudsman Moskalkova's office. They responded and promised to help us search among the POWs, but asked for a document issued by the morgue as confirmation. Anatoly's parents have such a document, but they don’t want to hand it over so that I could look for their son among POWs or the seriously wounded. They are happy with the monetary compensation.

https://theins.ru/en/politics/254048

[Vanir Ausf B]

Apparently Ukraine is being very tight-lipped.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I will say one thing, if this was missile work, they look like they came in at exactly at the same time.  Gotta be honest, the two fireballs look more like a controlled demolition.

Damn, I really hope it was SOF or a complex attack - that would do so much more damage to the Russians. 

The next trick needs to be inserting a bunch of special fuses into the Russian logistics system. Ten or twenty guns having breech explosions in a day or two would drop the morale of their gunners to zero.

[OldSarge]

23 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Apparently Ukraine is being very tight-lipped.

 

As they should. For the most part the UA has maintained relatively excellent OPSEC throughout this SMO, it is good to keep the enemy guessing. I do suspect that the US knows more than it is letting on, what happened or (almost as interesting) what didn't happen.

I guess we'll have to continue narrowing down the likely possibilities ourselves. This is where the fun is anyway.

[DesertFox]

35 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Apparently Ukraine is being very tight-lipped.

Which is a good thing. As said earlier. The less the orcs know how this happened, the better for ukraine.

[Pablius]

Regarding the air base attack, any thoughts as to why they didn’t go also/instead for the naval base/assets in Crimea?

 

Even for the current level of performance of the Russian military, you know next time it will be harder to pull off

[Homo_Ferricus]

33 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

As they should. For the most part the UA has maintained relatively excellent OPSEC throughout this SMO

In some sense they have. In another sense, any Ukrainian will tell you that government agencies as well as the military are fairly liberally sprinkled with RU informants and collaborators. Though something like this may well have been heavily compartmentalized.