How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Before I post map of Bakmut few updates.

RU Nat response to Saki-4 strike

My preliminary reports still stand but a few updates:

• The topic is quickly disappearing - it might be an order from above, but I feel RU Nats do not want to discuss it at all (too painful)
• Some started to comprehend military implications but on following level - HIMARS caused troubles with artillery, this unknow weapon will cause problems with Air. Since these are our two main advantages things gonna be a lot more difficult for us.
• The fracture I mentioned led to some sobering of RU Nats. Before it was like - Girkin is right we have issues, but we are RU Ubermensch we will defeat UKR Untermensch gay pigs regardless.  And now for the first time they looked at the thought that UKR might win.
• Keep in mind that they believe it is US weapon and was launched by US officers because Untermensch gay pigs cannot do this. So, it is lot scarier for them because it means involvement of US (as I said they afraid of US) 

Girkin about Saki-4

Quote

I try not to write about our losses, even when they are reliably known to me. In my opinion, it is even advisable to hide losses that can easily be established and documented by enemy intelligence. But frankly lying contrary to reality is not just impractical, it is frankly stupid and even arouses suspicion of sabotage, because in addition to losses, it also gives a good "pass to the leg" of enemy propaganda. But I understand that for the department of the Plywood Marshal, the benefits or harm to the state and the army are absolutely not important. They are concerned only and exclusively with the preservation of their own positions and the "nishtyaks" [various bonuses] owed to them. And if you need to lie brazenly and wildly for this, they will lie progressively.

Girkin about offensive

Quote

There was no news of changes on the front line in the morning. On the Kherson front - the exchange of rocket and artillery strikes.
In the Donetsk region, only artillery is leading the offensive, as the infantry is trying to put themselves in order. The enemy literally sowed the "neutral" with a huge number of "petals".

My overall impression regarding the situation

• At Donetsk direction it is completely stalled. RU is still failing to take Pisky and without it they cannot hope to capture Avdyyivka.
•  At Bakhmut direction they are still trying to push but it looks like only Wagnerites are somewhat successful (see my map)
• RU is trying to push from North toward Bakhmut but also do not see so far much success
• According to several reports LDPR infantry and mobilization reserves are completely wasted. 
• Something is happening in Kharkiv-Izum direction. RU claims it is impossible to advance there due to terrain. So, fights there should be mostly static. But according to RU reporters occasional posts RU artillery shoots there very intensely. I believe it is comparable to Donets-Bakmut offensive. We do not see any victorious post from there and Girkin avoids saying anything. So most likely UKR are pushing there but RU artillery is trying to hold the line at all cost.
• No changes for Kherson and Zaporozhye  

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Pablius said:

Regarding the air base attack, any thoughts as to why they didn’t go also/instead for the naval base/assets in Crimea?

 

Even for the current level of performance of the Russian military, you know next time it will be harder to pull off

I have two theories, probably both wrong.

1. There would have been HIGH civilian casualties if the hit the portion of the naval base they wanted to hit the most.

2. The aircraft, the pilots, and the PGM? munitions on the base represent a larger immediate military threat. Especially in terms of opposing the the offensive everyone thinks the Ukrinians are about to launch

[Beleg85]

There are reports about detainment of ca. 140 people in Crimea regarding Saki explosions. Interestingly, most of them seem to be Crimean Tatars, whose sole existence is salt in the eyes of local Russian administration. So Russians may be trying to settle the long existing scores till they can or they indeed suspect saboteurs. At least they know what happened, it's 3 day after attack, they should already find plenty of debris if missiles were involved.

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Again shelling at Zaporozhizhia Nuclear PP. reportedly AA was working heavily. @Haiduk perhaps you know what is happening around the complex and what Ukrainians say about it?

You confused locations. Despite NPP is named "Zaporizhska", indeed it situates not in Zaporizhzhia city, but in Enerhodar in 50 km, occupied by Russians. Today's strike was in Zaporizhzhia. Reportedly some infrastructure object in Shevchenkivskyi district was badly damaged. In this district several important factories located, for example "Ivchenko-Prohres" and "Motor-Sich". Both involved in development and producing of different aviation engines. An-124 and An-225 Mriya, fore example, had engines of Ivchenko-Prohres factory.

I read twitter of one NPP employee, he writes, collaborants and new Russian administration initially tried to win over NPP staff, but when they have seen this attempts failed, they began pressure and intimidation of personnel. Several people already abducted. Russians are shelling the NPP area to force the personnel either to execute all intentions of Russian administration about plugging the plant to Russian power grid or to stop it work at all, which will cause power defficite on the south. UKR also now sells power to EU, so the loss of ZNPP will hit on state income. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[OldSarge]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have two theories, probably both wrong.

1. There would have been HIGH civilian casualties if the hit the portion of the naval base they wanted to hit the most.

2. The aircraft, the pilots, and the PGM? munitions on the base represent a larger immediate military threat. Especially in terms of opposing the the offensive everyone thinks the Ukrinians are about to launch

I was thinking the #2 on your list would be likely enough reason. The aircraft there have been attacking the South throughout the war. Getting some payback would be justified.

Since we're still gaming out likely methods of attack, strict constraints on available resources to conduct a successful attack may have left Saki as the best target on a list of possible Crimean targets.

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

You confused locations. Despite NPP is named "Zaporizhska", indeed it situates not in Zaporizhzhia city, but in Enerhodar in 50 km, occupied by Russians. Today's strike was in Zaporizhzhia. Reportedly some infrastructure object in Shevchenkivskyi district was badly damaged. In this district several important factories located, for example "Ivchenko-Prohres" and "Motor-Sich". Both involved in development and producing of different aviation engines. An-124 and An-225 Mriya, fore example, had engines of Ivchenko-Prohres factory.

I read twitter of one NPP employee, he writes, collaborants and new Russian administration initially tried to win over NPP staff, but when they have seen this attempts failed, they began pressure and intimidation of personnel. Several people already abducted. Russians are shelling the NPP area to force the personnel either to execute all intentions of Russian administration about plugging the plant to Russian power grid or to stop it work at all, which will cause power defficite on the south. UKR also now sells power to EU, so the loss of ZNPP will hit on state income. 

Yup, thanks for correction, I just checked indeed last strike was in the city. Still, the fact that Russians don't shy away from shooting next to nuclear plant and have the audacity to call emergency meetings of various agencies/UN speaks how top issue is it for Kremlin.

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The topic is quickly disappearing - it might be an order from above, but I feel RU Nats do not want to discuss it at all (too painful)

Amazing, isn't it? Officially, within a week there will probably be no trace of an event unless Ukrainians will manage to repeat it. If that would be the case, however : Houston, we have a problem...

Edited August 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

Bakhmut map time. I am playing with Google Earth now. So, I created two variants, tell me what is more convenient please. 

Usual type 

 

Map with highlighted areas

Discussion (obviously it is my humble opinion of armchair amateur):

• Despite much hype RU push to Bakhmut is weak - they do not have enough forces for left hook to bypass the heaviest UKR defenses using the southern road from Pokrovske. (If they pushed only using Southern road, they would leave Soledar group flank open)
• The current push is unwise - they have to fight through the most difficult urban terrain with plants and industrial zone on the flank. They are still fighting in Pisky and Bakhmut is not Pisky.
• Unless they want to bleed to death wagnerites, I do not believe it is their main assault. Most probably they want to fix UKR defenders here and prevent them from reinforcing Soledar (North hook) or Zaitseve (South hook)
• Obviously Main UKR defenses are in Western part behind river. So, neither capture of eastern industrial zone or even Zabahmutske district is dangerous for UKR defenses. 
• Because both Bakhmut and Soledar are very strong positions I believe we need to worry only about left (southern) hook and specifically Vershyna-Zaitseve direction as the most easiest and fastest route to cut Bakhmut from supply.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Vyacheslav Proskuryakov, chief of EW service. Pointed, he served in Karachayevo-Cherkesiya Republic on Caucaus. The single ground forces unit, deployed in this republic is 34th motor-rifle brigade (mountain). So, more likely he was brigade's chief of EW service and got killed in Kherson oblast - Snihurivka, Inhulets bridgehead or Vysokopollia areas - locations were 34th brigade was involved in different times. 

 

[FancyCat]

 

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Bakhmut map time. I am playing with Google Earth now. So, I created two variants, tell me what is more convenient please. 

Both are really nice. I personally prefer 1st one without blurred areas. Perfect in case somebody would like to make a future scenario for CMBS.

Russians seem to be very close to Bakhmut proper. It's curious how heavy streetfighting at Severdonetsk influenced concepts of both armies and how this battle will be different. One of the reporters noted (without specifications) that he found Bakhmut defences much better prepared over course of last weeks.

[dan/california]

Well the Ukrainians aren't admitting too much, so I guess Putin will have to ban smoking in the whole Russian empire. I am sure that won't upset anyone.

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

well well well, maybe Huba gets his gold star after all.  What if UKR moved a significant force to that sector and is able to make some major gains, maybe get Kharkiv out of arty range, maybe get back to the border.  Then when RU arty receives CB fire, it will be on its own soil. 
I get that this is unlikely, but I believe in the visions of the Exalted Huba, knower of things.

[Battlefront.com]

First direct evidence I've seen of non-Russian mercenaries in large numbers. Looks to be ME or North African fighting in Bakhmut:

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I will say one thing, if this was missile work, they look like they came in at exactly at the same time.  Gotta be honest, the two fireballs look more like a controlled demolition.

I've said from the start that he dual hit is important to note.  It rules out all kinds of things that people suggested at the start, such as drones, Neptunes, cruise missiles, etc.  No way can that hit simultaneously like that.

Two missiles fired from the same location concurrently could, but not consistently.  Meaning, there would still be some sort of luck involved.  So way more likely than many of the other things floated, but not as likely as timed/controlled demolition.  Agreed.

The thing is I'm weighing this within the context of other information.  Including speculative stuff that sounds good, such as the guy who seems to have detected launches in Odessa.  If those weren't strike missiles it doesn't explain what was detected.  Unless the tea leave reading is wrong, which is entirely possible.

The issues I have with controlled demolition theory are... why not blow all up at once?  That would seem to me a really great kick in the pants.  All staggering might do is kill some 1st responder types.  They weren't going to get militarily significant personnel, like pilots.  All at once seems to me a better way to go.

Then there is the all at once detonations.  Unless lots of people, including me, are overlooking a way for hand carried explosives could blow up everything at once, the visual information doesn't jibe with theory.

The uniformity of the craters in three of the four explosions, despite different amounts of ammo in the target area (and one under roof), doesn't make sense either.

The missile strike theory fits all the known information except there is no independent confirmation that Ukraine has such weapons in their hands.  SOF fits most of the information, so I continue to think it is possible.  Personally, I think a combo of missile and SOF fits the best, but my specific theory of this is very speculative.

9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Damn, I really hope it was SOF or a complex attack - that would do so much more damage to the Russians. 

And I totally agree with you   Obviously some sort of major new long range missile in the mix would be very good, but SOF activity at this scale in Crimea will scare the piss out of the Russians way more.

I really don't know which way to lean, however it is between Hrim-2 type system and/or SOF.  Nothing else proposed by people. seems feasible.

Steve

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Both are really nice. I personally prefer 1st one without blurred areas. Perfect in case somebody would like to make a future scenario for CMBS.

Noted. 

 

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians seem to be very close to Bakhmut proper. It's curious how heavy streetfighting at Severdonetsk influenced concepts of both armies and how this battle will be different. One of the reporters noted (without specifications) that he found Bakhmut defences much better prepared over course of last weeks.

Hard to tell, really. What I gleamed from RU comments UKR defenses during first Donbass offensive were much more hidden and used surprise a lot. That's why reporters maybe have a low opinion of them as he did not see it really. Bakhmut on other hand should be much overt job.

Regardless UKR defenses should be good. It is just RU:

1. Slowly dismantle everything that they cannot enter. So eventually they will dismantle anything and crawl forward (there is video of them finally moving slowly inside of fortified area in Pisky)
2. They know frontal assault will be costly so will attempt to cut UKR from supply

As result it is impossible to prepare impenetrable defenses anyway. What is possible is to prepare defenses RU will pay dearly and crawl very slowly. In this case both Bakhmut and Soledar look good.  

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Both are really nice. I personally prefer 1st one without blurred areas. Perfect in case somebody would like to make a future scenario for CMBS.

How about this?

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And I totally agree with you   Obviously some sort of major new long range missile in the mix would be very good, but SOF activity at this scale in Crimea will scare the piss out of the Russians way more.

I really don't know which way to lean, however it is between Hrim-2 type system and/or SOF.  Nothing else proposed by people. seems feasible.

Steve

The best part is... the Russians don't know either and both options are bad news.  Essentially, they have to defend against both threats further straining their military and political positions.

[dan/california]

The Pickle is OVER it.

 

[FancyCat]

It was three separate explosions no? One at 15:00 ish, then two at the same time at 16:00 ish. I wish I could find the video/tweet, it was a camera at a grocery store. Missile to distract? Then two explosions at the ammo dumps? Or timed stuff on the aircraft?

[dan/california]

Brutal!

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

It was three separate explosions no? One at 15:00 ish, then two at the same time at 16:00 ish. I wish I could find the video/tweet, it was a camera at a grocery store. Missile to distract? Then two explosions at the ammo dumps? Or timed stuff on the aircraft?

It's hard to tell the order because there are always edits or enough choppiness that it could hide edits.  The twitter link Steve posted on p 1164 has one video that shows the twin explosions and then a single later.  There's a second clip that also shows the twin explosions. When the two go, there's already well dispersed smoke so there's no mushroom cloud from the previous one.  But for the single fireball there's also already well dispersed smoke.

So I'm starting to think it was 1...pause...2...pause....1.  And we never see the first one because nobody pointed their cameras that way until the first one went off that we don't see.  They were just recording the post-fireball smoke and got three bonus fireballs.  It's not a particularly interesting direction to be taking video at the beach if there aren't fireballs going into the sky, so nobody recorded the first one.  That would be consistent with the four similar sized craters.

[FancyCat]

I know nothing of internal German politics, but if the most pro-Ukraine party is doing well and Scholz's SPD is doing worse, I think we can say the German people aren't eager to abandon Ukraine.

 

[chuckdyke]

The Greens amaze me here. Few nuclear reactors on the point following Chernobyl and they sympathize with Ukraine. At least something I have in common with them. I never thought I would say something like this. 

[Haiduk]

 

 

[poesel]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

 

+1 to the guy who ran towards the gun to drive it away. I hope he succeeded!

And they cut together two totally unrelated videos. The part with the explosions has the ocean to the right, while the rest is on land.