How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I stopped reading Cooper's analysis because I found them to be "off the mark" on a regular basis.  Unlike this Forum, there's nobody on his pages to correct or redirect him when he strays too far off track.  That means he tends to keep going down the wrong path instead of doing course corrections.

Checking Wikipedia, adding up some numbers, and making a declarative statement without digging any deeper isn't good analysis.  Cooper obviously doesn't read this Forum.  We've already discussed this stuff several times and came to the opposite conclusions that he did because we did dig deeper. 

The process here is imperfect, but we do have a wide array of knowledge by people not afraid to engage in critical debate.  We definitely don't get everything right, but collectively we do a pretty damned fine job   One person is not capable of doing that.

Yeah, that's a fundamental flub on his part.  He also seems to over look the fact that some of the most "elite" of their units did go into Ukraine and were exposed to combat.  They were slaughtered.

This also misses the fact that they are locally based units.  There's politics involved in pulling them out of some place and sticking them into Ukraine.  These guys are also more likely to have connections to make redeployment less likely.  They are, after all, part of the political machinery and not the military machinery.

If Putin was going to commit Rosgvardia in large numbers to Ukraine he would have done so by now.  And not to the frontlines, but to keep the Ukrainian locals from causing trouble.  He's done neither.

The rest of Cooper's missives are also off the mark, as you rightly point out

Steve

I actually think when it comes to the air war (which is really what his specialty is) he's usually been pretty good. Otherwise, he's a bit hit or miss, and he has this obsession with oligarchy when it comes to any political commentary.

I do enjoy reading his sarcasm though.

[poesel]

I don't think the Russian public is anywhere close to panic. Sure, those on the beach left in a hurry, but for the average moskovite this has hardly any impact on day-to-day life.

I read some interviews (pre strike) with people from Moscow and not much has actually changed for them. Some shops are closed, and it is more difficult to get foreign items. But still far from Soviet era levels.
It will take months until the sanctions reach the average Russian in a noticeable, painful way.

 

[Holien]

Are we fed up with folk doing analysis on the kick to "Putins Balls?"

https://planesandstuff.wordpress.com/2022/08/11/novofedorivka-saki-air-base-attack-satellite-imagery-the-aftermath/

 

Nothing much new to add but some good photo's and more ID'ing of areas on the airfield.

 

This link was nestled within the one above but has nice images and one of destroyed plane.

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea

Edited August 11, 2022 by Holien

[Huba]

Reportedly S400 radar was hit, as well as some random equipment nearby. The only source quoted is anonymous, but given what's happening to Russian AD lately, I wouldn't be surprised if UA went for this target:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

For reference re: missile speed, a Kh-22 has a terminal velocity of about Mach 4.6 (in high altitude dive attack mode)
 

Tochka and Iskander are in the hypersonic range, as would Hrim-2 likely be.

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Holien]

4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

For reference re: missile speed, a Kh-22 has a terminal velocity of about Mach 4.6.
 

 

I have seen this explained as follows: -

You needed a camera pointed in exact right place and it only just caught an image.

We might yet see an image when security cameras are checked?

Quote

Think back to the "accidental" bombing of the shopping centre in Ukraine a month or so ago - the hypersonic missile used by Russia was so fast that a security camera running at 30fps only caught the missile in a single frame of the footage before it hit the ground. In one frame it wasn't in shot, then it was in shot for one frame, in the very next frame it was gone again, replaced by an explosion. Those long range high altitude hypersonic missiles are FAST and nothing like the slower, shorter range missiles that can be seen and heard easily.
 

 

[Eddy]

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

We might yet see an image when security cameras are checked?

Maybe although any security cameras close enough to pick up a missile/bomb/thing may well have been destroyed.

[fireship4]

Apologies for posting a meme, but when they are this good...

Quote

 

 

EDIT: As far as the cause of the strike, SOF night mission with delayed charges (infiltration or drone-dropped) makes sense to me, as well as Hrim, eventually we may have more to go on.

Edited August 11, 2022 by fireship4

[Calamine Waffles]

Some other people throwing their money behind the SOF/infiltration theory...
 

 

[Holien]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

extreme precision (CEP of maybe 10m by the looks of it)

Hmmm do we know where exactly they aimed at?

This Fuel depot would have made a nice target too?

Anyway I know I am being super picky but we can't let you get too cocky?

I guess we will find out in a few years what the exact target co-ordinates were, either way it did it's job...

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Some other people throwing their money behind the SOF/infiltration theory...
 

 

SOF is certainly the best movie material.  Assuming it is SOF, it's interesting the charges went off during the day.  So they would've been confident the bombs wouldn't be found.  Daytime was certainly excellent for maximum propaganda effect.  I do still wonder about RU finding scapegoats and doing crackdowns on civilians.  

[Calamine Waffles]

The problem with SOF is that sabotage deep penetration raids like this are notoriously difficult. As Ian Matveev points out:
 

Quote

The three most plausible options: sabotage, long-range missile attack and air attack. The most unlikely is sabotage. Because the most difficult, especially if you consider the result.

If we recall the history of sabotage movements, then this is the history of failures. Very few sabotage "on the ground" were successful. Many successful ones hung in the balance, like Operation Anthropoid, for example. Still, too many factors in such an operation can go wrong.

For example, in the case of Novofedorovka. What to attack? A grenade launcher or ATGM is difficult to drag. Lots of explosives too. Maybe there is a chance to use kamikaze drones. For example, in combination with "Bayraktar" for guidance.

There were several blows. Imagine the complexity of coordinating such an operation. Radio conversations are not possible. Is it the Internet, but here is a new risk - the operators in the Crimea are Russian, and what if they get caught? Indeed, for such sabotage, not 1 person or even 5 people are needed. Someone made a mistake and that’s it.

 

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

If we recall the history of sabotage movements, then this is the history of failures. Very few sabotage "on the ground" were successful.

Veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan would likely disagree, but I am not sure if an IED constitutes "sabotage", sure felt like it at times.

If this was a SOF job, it was black bag.  Not DA, zero evidence of that, and too loud to cover up.

Small team that has likely been living in Crimea for some time, so now you need a cover.  Have to feed them detailed ISR and targeting data, securely, unless of course they are already working at the airfield.  Then get them the stuff for the job, or they have to source it locally - and quietly.  They have to get access into the airfield and the secure areas (which based on photos were maybe not that secure); again, local workers, or if you have done your job very well Russian military.  They then need to know what and where to hit in detail with what they have, small explosives on a pile of Russian air ordinance is not simple a "slap and go" job.  Place to stuff, get out and remote detonate...then extraction of some sort because Russian security is going to lose its mind.  There are variations here but essential elements are basically the same.

Tricky, lotta points of failure on that, and a long time to set up.  But if you did, first question the Russians are asking themselves: "where else do they have teams ready to do the same thing?"....and hilarity will ensue.

 

 

[acrashb]

Further analysis of the Amnesty International debacle:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/adam-zivo-amnesty-international-ignores-reality-to-manufacture-ukrainian-war-crimes

"...Rovera arrived in eastern Ukraine not to investigate facts on the ground, but rather to bend them to a preordained conclusion."

At university, when AI was fully and laser-focused on prisoners of conscience, I volunteered and handed out pamphlets.  In the last roughly ten years AI has strayed and adopted an anti-Western bias, now, or again, shown to be simple prejudice.  If anything good comes from this it will be their collapse as a publicly credible organization.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan would likely disagree, but I am not sure if an IED constitutes "sabotage", sure felt like it at times.

If this was a SOF job, it was black bag.  Not DA, zero evidence of that, and too loud to cover up.

Small team that has likely been living in Crimea for some time, so now you need a cover.  Have to feed them detailed ISR and targeting data, securely, unless of course they are already working at the airfield.  Then get them the stuff for the job, or they have to source it locally - and quietly.  They have to get access into the airfield and the secure areas (which based on photos were maybe not that secure); again, local workers, or if you have done your job very well Russian military.  They then need to know what and where to hit in detail with what they have, small explosives on a pile of Russian air ordinance is not simple a "slap and go" job.  Place to stuff, get out and remote detonate...then extraction of some sort because Russian security is going to lose its mind.  There are variations here but essential elements are basically the same.

Tricky, lotta points of failure on that, and a long time to set up.  But if you did, first question the Russians are asking themselves: "where else do they have teams ready to do the same thing?"....and hilarity will ensue.

I agree. It's very difficult, and also adding to that this was executed in broad daylight.

Matveev also suggests it was an air strike
 

Quote

The idea is simple - we approach at ultra-low altitudes above the water on the Su-27 or MiG-29, launch 5-6 air-to-surface missiles from 10+ km and calmly go back. We aim the missiles at the ammunition dumped in a heap, Schaub exploded so exploded, hoping that at least one would fly. Profit.

I think this is

a) suicidal

b) an unnecessarily risky use of irreplaceable air assets

c) impossible to execute using MiG-29s and Su-27s with sufficient accuracy using unguided bombs (I do not believe they are compatible with laser or GPS guided bombs)

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I agree. It's very difficult, and also adding to that this was executed in broad daylight.

Matveev also suggests it was an air strike
 

I think this is

a) suicidal

b) an unnecessarily risky use of irreplaceable air assets

c) impossible to execute using MiG-29s and Su-27s with sufficient accuracy using unguided bombs (I do not believe they are compatible with laser or GPS guided bombs)

Walks like a high altitude/high trajectory mach 2+ duck, and blows the hell out of an airfield like a high altitude/high trajectory duck....

Edited August 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I agree. It's very difficult, and also adding to that this was executed in broad daylight.

If it was indeed an attack by kamikaze drones (or drone recon - strike package more probably), doing it during the day was probably a prerequisite due to lack of night vision optics in the very small drones like Switchblade 300.
Another point is that attacking it in the middle of the day added the psychological angle of spooking all the beach goers.

[MikeyD]

Amnesty reminds me of Wikileaks somewhat. They went from being an organization of conscience (one to could argue) to being hijacked and manipulated by people with an agenda. In the end Wikileaks was pretty much a Russian troll farm.

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

If it was indeed an attack by kamikaze drones (or drone recon - strike package more probably), doing it during the day was probably a prerequisite due to lack of night vision optics in the very small drones like Switchblade 300.
Another point is that attacking it in the middle of the day added the psychological angle of spooking all the beach goers.

The thing is that Switchblade 300 doesn't use an explosive bomb payload. It's more like a flying shotgun that shoots pellets. It's optimised for antipersonnel use.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Calamine Waffles said:

The thing is that Switchblade 300 doesn't use an explosive bomb payload. It's more like a flying shotgun that shoots pellets. It's optimised for antipersonnel use.

Equivalent to a 40mm HE, not going to reliably do the job we see before us here. The 600 maybe, but the odds of no one getting video of this in broad daylight is pretty low.  The timing of this thing was brilliant.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

I have seen this explained as follows: -

You needed a camera pointed in exact right place and it only just caught an image.

We might yet see an image when security cameras are checked?

 

You have to get really lucky on a bright day. The auto-exposure will set the exposure time to be short, and the frame rate on any normal camera is going to be low, so there will be a lot of dead time between frame captures.  If want to get really high speed you need to use a line-scan camera like is used for finish line photos.  Those aren't cheap, but not outrageous for a 1 kline/s camera.  They're not in the price range of anybody's security camera.  Array capture high frame rate cameras are very expensive and spew out too much data to store reasonably unless you really, really need it.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

Hmmm do we know where exactly they aimed at?

There were four ammo locations around the aircraft.  We have direct evidence that 3 of them were directly hit, probably by missiles.  The 4th is almost certain, even though there's no crater evident in the images we have.

Which is to say:

• there were 4 ammo stores to target
• there were at least 3 hits (craters) with a 4th supported by other evidence (video)
• all hits were within meters of the center of those targets (including the 4th one with no evident crater)

Four very lucky shots?  I don't think that's very likely.  Which means there were four very accurate shots.

It seems Ukraine wanted to take out the aircraft.  This was the best way to do it.  Hitting the other facilities doesn't seem to offer the same payoff.  One of them, also, is located near residential neighborhood.  If they managed to detonate that they would have potentially killed dozens of civilians.

Steve

[Hapless]

I'm firmly on the side of some kind of missile...

... but I'm not sure where all this SOF stuff is coming from.

We're talking about a society where a destroyer captain sold the propeller off his ship (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-navy-captain-stole-ships-13-tonne-propellers-m5vxkhvb3). No point SOF-ing around when you can just give Sergei a bag of rubles in exchange for a night-time wander about the flight line.

[chrisl]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan would likely disagree, but I am not sure if an IED constitutes "sabotage", sure felt like it at times.

If this was a SOF job, it was black bag.  Not DA, zero evidence of that, and too loud to cover up.

Small team that has likely been living in Crimea for some time, so now you need a cover.  Have to feed them detailed ISR and targeting data, securely, unless of course they are already working at the airfield.  Then get them the stuff for the job, or they have to source it locally - and quietly.  They have to get access into the airfield and the secure areas (which based on photos were maybe not that secure); again, local workers, or if you have done your job very well Russian military.  They then need to know what and where to hit in detail with what they have, small explosives on a pile of Russian air ordinance is not simple a "slap and go" job.  Place to stuff, get out and remote detonate...then extraction of some sort because Russian security is going to lose its mind.  There are variations here but essential elements are basically the same.

Tricky, lotta points of failure on that, and a long time to set up.  But if you did, first question the Russians are asking themselves: "where else do they have teams ready to do the same thing?"....and hilarity will ensue.

 

 

So when this is over, Ukraine TV will do a remake of The Americans called The Russians.

But it will be a documentary series.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

I think the russkies are going to have a hard time finding that new Ukraine base at Shangri-La.