How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Ziabrovka airfield in Belarus after probable UKR strike.

T-72  is seen on runway, being destroyed because of ammo detonation. Burned grass aside runway. No other signs of destroyed vehicles. Though is a question - what the tank did on runway? Maybe it try to get out something burning from runway? 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Anatoliy Vasin, 16th Guard Spetsnaz brigade, Western Military District. Got lost Jul 5

 

[hcrof]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Ziabrovka airfield in Belarus after probable UKR strike.

T-72  is seen on runway, being destroyed because of ammo detonation. Burned grass aside runway. No other signs of destroyed vehicles. Though is a question - what the tank did on runway? Maybe it try to get out something burning from runway? 

If I wanted to block a runway, parking a 45tonne tank on it and blowing it up would be at least as effective as cratering it - maybe sabotage?

[Billy Ringo]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

First direct evidence I've seen of non-Russian mercenaries in large numbers. Looks to be ME or North African fighting in Bakhmut:

 

 

"A man's got to do something for a living these days."

"Dyin' ain't much of a living, boy."

 

 

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, hcrof said:

If I wanted to block a runway, parking a 45tonne tank on it and blowing it up would be at least as effective as cratering it - maybe sabotage?

There are no jets here. Lukashenko handed over this base to Russia and reportedly only AD, EW and likely missile units are deployed here with some ground forces for security 

[pintere]

Looks like the Nova Kakhovka bridge in Kherson might be out now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62533670

[Haiduk]

Reportedly UKR forces have struck throughout the hour several targets on occupied territory of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Melitopol' (80 km from closest point of frontline) - explosion in the building of enlistment office (reportesdly diversion)

Ivanivka (100 km) - hit of troops deployment and ammo dump

Nyzhni Sirohozy (90 km), Velyka Blahovishchenka (65 km), Chkalove (125 km), Chaplynka (110 km), Novotroyitske (140 km)

There is no information what exacly was hit it theese villages and settlements and what weapon was used.

Also Nova Kakhovka was twice for today uder the strikes. 

Reportedly in Mariuol was heard loud explosion, allegedly because of partisan diversion. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

 

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I know nothing of internal German politics, but if the most pro-Ukraine party is doing well and Scholz's SPD is doing worse, I think we can say the German people aren't eager to abandon Ukraine.

 

Been in Germany for the last week. Ukraine flags pop up routinely and my anecdotal conversations with folks have routinely featured statements about how they want the German government to do more. “We’re embarrassing” was one representative comment.

[Haiduk]

One more version, what could be used for Novofedorivka strike and for todays deep strikes - is loitering minition Phoenix Ghost, which USA Aevex Aerospace company produces specially for Ukraine and as if according to Ukrainian "whishlist". There is still no info about this project, but one civil volunteer, who supply SOF, hinted exactly this drone is causing "uncertainity" (C) The_CAPT among Russians. As if this LM can fly up to 6 hours and probably more than 200 km, and as if it close to Israely HAROP. 

Of, course it is just RUMINT, but at least todays multiple deep strikes are not because of using of hypothetical Hrim-2, which if it exists, should be used only for realy startegic strikes like on Novofedorivka

First mentions about Phoenix Ghost appeared in April-May, but about appering this LM in Ukriaine our media wrote after 20th of July. Looks like exactly about this time Phoenix Ghosts and their crews became combat ready

Initially was known about 121 drone, now media write about 580

This is just illustrative photo, because under Phoenix Ghost different articles give different designs of drones

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Nova Kakhovka strike. Ammo dump in Industrial zone was hit

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

+1 to the guy who ran towards the gun to drive it away. I hope he succeeded!

And they cut together two totally unrelated videos. The part with the explosions has the ocean to the right, while the rest is on land.

That is the difference between a functioning army and an orcish mob.

[Huba]

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

yeah that has to be good for morale for the troops on the west bank.

[FancyCat]

Some M113s from the U.S are now in Ukraine according to oryx.

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Haiduk]

In previous day UKR artillery have struck DPR base on Stirol plant in Horlivka, today the other base in this city was hit on territory of "Uglesnab" enterprise (on the photo).

On other hand,  DPR troops from this city (3rd MRB) yestreday could almost completely to seize Zaytseve settlement - northern outskirt of Horlivka. Before a war DPR controlled about 60 % of it.

 

 

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Some M113s from the U.S are now in Ukraine according to oryx.

 

As well as +4 Slovakian Zuzana 2 155/45 SP-howitzers

..and US MRAPs M1224. According to hints of Taras Chmut, chief of Back-and-Alive volunteer fund, Ukraine will receive about two hundreds M1224

...And +50 Turkish Kirpi MRAPs. 150 more will be delivered soon. Reportedly marines of 35th and 36th brigades alredy use Kirpi.

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

That looks photo-shopped.

[Haiduk]

22nd mot.inf. battalion of 92nd mech.brigade destroyed Russian MTLB with 2B9 automatic mortar. Kharkiv axis.

 

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

That looks photo-shopped.

I'm sure if its fake, Igor will be quick to say so on his social media. 

 

 

[Beleg85]

56 minutes ago, akd said:

That looks photo-shopped.

Maybe he tried to catch a little sun on Crimea till he can?

But other journalists already discuss the situation. If it is confirmed, it may mean that somebody at the top finally had enough of Girkin rants; in one of the the last ones, he wanted to shoot "politbiuro". We must wait what Grigb will have to say about it, I curious if Russian nats will get even more furious if he disappear or it will be opposite.

 

Strong Marder vibes:

https://twitter.com/ZlaAmbasada/status/1558445619638853632

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

 

They should really pull back to Siberia if they want to avoid whatever it was that sent the fireballs up at the airport in Crimea.

[Battlefront.com]

14 hours ago, chrisl said:

It's hard to tell the order because there are always edits or enough choppiness that it could hide edits.  The twitter link Steve posted on p 1164 has one video that shows the twin explosions and then a single later.  There's a second clip that also shows the twin explosions. When the two go, there's already well dispersed smoke so there's no mushroom cloud from the previous one.  But for the single fireball there's also already well dispersed smoke.

So I'm starting to think it was 1...pause...2...pause....1.  And we never see the first one because nobody pointed their cameras that way until the first one went off that we don't see.  They were just recording the post-fireball smoke and got three bonus fireballs.  It's not a particularly interesting direction to be taking video at the beach if there aren't fireballs going into the sky, so nobody recorded the first one.  That would be consistent with the four similar sized craters.

There's video of the first hit, but not from the moment of detonation.  Big boom + tall mushroom cloud = time to get out the iPhone

Here's what I believe was the first hit:

 

There's some other pics and at least another video somewhere.  They show the same thing... isolated elongated mushroom cloud.

As I laid out in my "report" many pages back it seems the order was:

1. single large explosion with distinct, sharp mushroom cloud (above video)
2. single large explosion that was more ball like than mushroom.  Didn't go as high.  Lots of smoke already evident before the explosion
3. twin very large explosions within large amounts of existing smoke.

I had thought there might be a 5th explosion on its own, but it now appears to be the second one from a different angle.

It is also quite possible that the twins came after the first one.,

 

Here is what I think is the second explosion.  You can see a smaller explosion before a massive fireball:

This is also of the second explosion, but after it developed:

 

And the twins:

 

 

[sross112]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

I've seen this video posted a couple times now and what grabs me the most is the disparity in human qualities between this work force and the pics and videos we see of the conscripts and volunteers. Heck, these guys look like Spetsnaz quality compared to the stiffs volunteering. Maybe they should just quietly go home without pay before they are picked up by the LNR/DPR "recruiters".