How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

https://poland.postsen.com/news/46357/Poland-will-buy-1000-Korean-tanks-including-820-K2PL-A-tank-factory-will-also-be-built-in-Poland--HISTORIAorgpl.html
 

seems Poland is keen on not letting a certain historical event to repeat itself.

Edited July 25, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[The_MonkeyKing]

Any idea what will replace the Polish IFV fleet in the future? Tanks seem to be more than covered already...

EDIT: answered myself in my above post: "1400 Borsuk IFV"

Edited July 25, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

Dropping by with Coke & Stripper news:

Ukraine war: Russian investigator says 92 Ukrainians charged

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62287502

 

well, we know why Bolivia is on the list... they need to insure a good supply of pharmaceuticals.

[G.I. Joe]

On 7/23/2022 at 4:38 PM, Butschi said:

Yeah, I was thinking of using tactical nukes for... well, tactical purposes, I guess. Off the top of my head there is no instance where terror bombing had the desired effect, right?

It didn't work for the Germans against the UK, it didn't work for the Allies against Germany. It didn't work in Korea. And that was a bombing campaign that was an order of magnitude worse than against Germany (25% of the North Korean civilians were killed I seem to remember). Failure against North Vietnam... has it been tried afterwards? There is Japan in WW2, of course, and the official narrative says that the two nukes ended the war. But nowadays at least some historians (including from the US, I'm not talking about Russian propaganda) say that the Japanese didn't care that much - in the sense that it didn't matter if the enemy can wipe out a city with one big bomb instead of thousands of smaller ones. (They claim it was actually the Russian invasion that made them surrender to the US because the Russians certainly would have deposed of the emporer). So, I don't think a terror bombing campaign would "help" the Russians in Ukraine. Boy, that sounds cynical... And who knows, learning from history is not for everyone.

Still, I was thinking about military use, where a big enough boom could certainly offset a lack of accuracy.

Even if we were to consider them the sole (or even primary) reason for the Japanese surrender, I don't think the atomic bombings can be considered a counterexample to the lesson that terror bombing does not work. The 20s and 30s theory of terror bombing was that bombing cities would break the populace's will to resist and drive them to rebel or flee. This is not what happened in Japan...one can argue that the atomic bombings pushed the political and military leadership to a decision point, but not that they broke the civil population's will in any way that forced the government's hand.

As far as the USSR's entry into the Pacific war is concerned, I think it's both-and, not either-or, and even then there are other factors which probably played a major role. Contrary to the "official narrative" having been that the atomic bombings led to the surrender, there has always been a school of thought that the naval blockade was the real reason for Japan's capitulation (one can guess the inter-service rivalry affiliation breakdown of that debate). I think it's probably safe to say that the collapse of Japanese war industries due to the combined effects of the blockade and bombing, the appearance of nuclear weapons in the equation, the Soviets entering the war, impending famine due to the blockade and U.S. diplomatic signalling that the Allies would let Japan keep the Emperor as a constitutional monarch all contributed to some degree...

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, panzermartin said:

No, nothing really compares to german engineering.

On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  

I'm not going to participate in this off topic discussion, but just would like to say this. Germany has learned it's lessons and is one of the most decent and democratic countries in Europe. To compare present Russian (war) crimes with German (war) crimes of the past, in order to weaken the severity of the Russian crimes is unjust.

[poesel]

7 hours ago, asurob said:

If the Russians start tossing around nukes...even just tactical ones.  There will be a response.  Now it likely will be tit for tat. 

I do agree with you that there will be a response. But for one tactical nuke, the better answer would be a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A 'tit-for-tat' nuke would not accomplish much and had mostly symbolic value. A no-fly zone would more or less end the war, and the shame would be on Russia.
It would be a huge win (in this context) if the narrative after the war is 'we dropped the bomb, but still didn't win the war'.

But I really doubt anything like that will happen.

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm not going to participate in this off topic discussion, but just would like to say this. Germany has learned it's lessons and is one of the most decent and democratic countries in Europe. To compare present Russian (war) crimes with German (war) crimes of the past, in order to weaken the severity of the Russian crimes is unjust.

A tu quoque response to an accusation can never refute the accusation. In plain English. The pot calling the kettle black doesn't win an argument. 

[G.I. Joe]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

I do agree with you that there will be a response. But for one tactical nuke, the better answer would be a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A 'tit-for-tat' nuke would not accomplish much and had mostly symbolic value. A no-fly zone would more or less end the war, and the shame would be on Russia.
It would be a huge win (in this context) if the narrative after the war is 'we dropped the bomb, but still didn't win the war'.

But I really doubt anything like that will happen.

Agreed. (And I would infer from his next sentence that @asurob probably meant to say it likely will not be tit for tat...so we're probably all on the same page).

[panzermartin]

12 hours ago, sburke said:

Russia has a lower GDP than Italy. 

List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

Does it never occur to you that financially Russian really isn't capable of supporting a nuclear arsenal of that size?  There is a reason the US has had to help deal with Russia getting rid of all its nuclear material that @Ultradavediscussed several hundred pages ago.  Frankly if I was a Russian commander, I'd be very afraid to hit that launch button as there is no telling how badly it will malfunction.

You really need to ground your view of Russian military development in a realistic perspective on what a corruption ridden 11th rated GDP country is ACTUALLY capable of doing.

 

So, what is the actual point of diminissing the nuclear capabilities of Russia? To make us feel better, I know.

Because in all other aspects it doesnt matter. Its not a discussion with some conclusion to export. We can only assume and assuming in such life or death matters is not a good guide. And if you have Brazil's GDP doesn't matter that much either. According to the GDP of Germany, they should have the best european army and nukes. But they don't because their focus was not there. And North Korea has 30 to 40 nuclear warheads with a GDP a fraction of Malta''s. If you are a country that has been succesfully practicing nuclear weapons since the 1940s and you have thousand advanced rockets, you still have some good chance to end civilization.

No point in debating this. 

 

 

 

 

 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

So, what is the actual point of diminissing the nuclear capabilities of Russia?

Using nukes in Europe is like settling a domestic with hand grenades. Look at Chernobyl, it was a nuclear implosion and it affected all of Europe and it triggered the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nuclear will be between the US and Russia and neither side wants it. Time to call putins bluff. 

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://poland.postsen.com/news/46357/Poland-will-buy-1000-Korean-tanks-including-820-K2PL-A-tank-factory-will-also-be-built-in-Poland--HISTORIAorgpl.html
 

seems Poland is keen on not letting a certain historical event to repeat itself.

It seems rather fitting that Poland is partnering with South Korea. Although 500 is almost certainly a negotiating position, it does seem as if Poland is likely to acquire enough HIMARS for a modern version of medieval Korea's "speak softly and carry a loaded hwacha" approach to self-defense...

[poesel]

I read this article (sorry, German) that Poland will have difficulties to get enough coal for heating coming winter. About 2m Polish households use coal for heating (which I guess is about 20%). Now, 8m tons of Russian coal have vanished from the market. Replacement is available, but more expensive and a logistical problem.

How does that discussion go in Poland?

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/polen-kohle-winter-101.html

[G.I. Joe]

23 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A tu quoque response to an accusation can never refute the accusation. In plain English. The pot calling the kettle black doesn't win an argument. 

Indeed. It is, however, something of a Kremlin Classic. If I'm not mistaken, the term "whataboutism" was originally coined in reference to Cold War era Soviet propaganda tactics.

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

I read this article (sorry, German) that Poland will have difficulties to get enough coal for heating coming winter. About 2m Polish households use coal for heating (which I guess is about 20%). Now, 8m tons of Russian coal have vanished from the market. Replacement is available, but more expensive and a logistical problem.

How does that discussion go in Poland?

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/polen-kohle-winter-101.html

Exporting 8m tons of coal would make a lot of West Virginia miners happy.  Coal use (and mining to supply it) has been in decline in the US and it's been slow going converting coal mining regions to other economics.

[chuckdyke]

In the meantime, working on tactics in BS, scouting 21st century. Starting the US Campaign, stopped the Russian Campaign shooting Ukrainians is not much fun.

Last of the Russian scout vehicles in that zone. Incredible, they seem to be as silly as in real life. Can't play campaigns against a human player. 

 

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm not going to participate in this off topic discussion, but just would like to say this. Germany has learned it's lessons and is one of the most decent and democratic countries in Europe. To compare present Russian (war) crimes with German (war) crimes of the past, in order to weaken the severity of the Russian crimes is unjust.

No, I have been defending modern Germany a lot in a country that has been pretty anti german and have taken a lot of flak because of this. So, whatever came across my posts its probably misinterprented. 

On the other hand we also shouldn't equalize today Russia with Nazi Germany because it is a simplification in a more complex situation. 

[Grigb]

First of all, my posts are not about who was worse. My posts about disinformation being spread here:

• Calling RU evil is incorrect
• RU needs to be given the benefit of doubt
• RU is not bad yet etc. 

The disinformation above is wrong and must stop. 

10 hours ago, Butschi said:

You already quoted the difference yourself there. The quote is about labor camps. It talks about the concentration camp part of Auschwitz. Not the extermination camp. Those were rather unique, I think.

You think wrong. German Extermination camps were just German way of mass execution. They must be compared to RU mass executions. RU used different creative ways to mass murder people. When they needed to genocide UKR they used famine. When they needed to genocide Crimean Tatars, they used deportation. Unlike Germans, they used plausible deniability in both cases. The rest was done by gullible westerners who lied that RU needs to be given benefit of doubt - it was by accident; they did not mean it; they are not bad yet. 

 

10 hours ago, Butschi said:

I still think, there is a difference in forced labor, not caring that people die in the process and sending them directly to the gas chambers.

It is because you have no idea how it worked in reality. They fooled you with labor word in the name. In reality prisoners themselves called these labor camps Extermination-Labour Camps. RU used famine to slowly kill prisoners without much trace and with plausible deniability - it was by accident; we did not mean it. For that they implemented Frenkel Method - they aligned food ration to work norm. Except they calculated work norm in such way that you could never complete work norm to receive normal ration. As soon as you got there you started to die but very slowly.

Quote:

Quote

"The norm was not specially developed for prisoners - it was based on uniform republican norms. But, of course, the free loggers did not eat like we did, and most importantly, for us there was no the reduction of norms provided in the same uniform republican norms (depending on the average age of trees, forest affordability and density of plantings). And the forest that grew around Sonya-Nyrda was young, thin, sparse and wooded. And most of the prisoners, who, moreover, had no skills, of course, did not fulfill the norms. And not fulfilling the norm meant condemning oneself to constant malnutrition, and then to starvation...My strength was waning from day to day. Both my friends and I could not fulfill more than 60% of the norm in any way and, accordingly, received a reduced ration of bread. (Abramovich I. L. Memoirs and views : in 2 books. / Abramovich I. L. - M. : KRUK-Prestige, 2004. - Vol. 1 : Memoirs. - 287 p. : portr.)

 Welcome to the real world of RU Evil. The world where I was born and the world you know nothing about.  

 

11 hours ago, Butschi said:

And I still stand by what I said earlier: modern day Russia, as bad as it is, is not on par with Nazi Germany and also, I think, not with the USSR under Stalin. We don't do us any favour if we neglect to see nuances.

• RU attacking Chechnya and committed genocide of Chechens - They are not that bad! There are nuances!
• RU attacking Georgia twice and committing genocide of Georgians (1,2) - They are not that bad! There are nuances!
• RU attacking UKR twice and committing genocide of UKR - They are not that bad! There are nuances!

The only nuance is that now the Western World does react somewhat to crimes against humanity severely limiting scale of RU war crimes. It is just difficult for Putin to commit crimes on the scale of Stalin. Nothing more, Nothing less.

This is my last post about RU evilness. But I strongly advise everybody who gives RU benefit of doubt to stop talking and start learning - the real world is different Western European school textbooks. 

[panzermartin]

Grigb, I sense you and your family have a personal inflicted wound from soviet times or today's Russia. Because you are really passionate about hating your own country in a way I haven't seen before. It's true I can't debate that, from my safe western corner of fantasies. But I can spot the personal side. The thing is, don't worry the message is getting across and we are not actually that passionate to defend Russia's actions. Maybe we are just playing the devil's advocate to try to challenge our own mindset and seek the truth. Its not changing the course of history. Even if we think that evil or backwards countries still have national interests or rights when even criminals have the right in court to defend themselves and not get them straight to the electric chair. 

[Huba]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Any idea what will replace the Polish IFV fleet in the future? Tanks seem to be more than covered already...

EDIT: answered myself in my above post: "1400 Borsuk IFV"

There's also talk about acquiring heavy IFVs, probably AS21, for heavy brigades operating M1. 

Borsuk ("badger") is a new indigenous design, but ramping up production and actually building 1000+ will take a decade, something to fill the gaps is needed in the meantime. 

And a interesting detail about K2 - tanks that we'll be getting are to be both up-armored compared to Korean models, and will be equiped with hard-kill APS. 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

I read this article (sorry, German) that Poland will have difficulties to get enough coal for heating coming winter. About 2m Polish households use coal for heating (which I guess is about 20%). Now, 8m tons of Russian coal have vanished from the market. Replacement is available, but more expensive and a logistical problem.

How does that discussion go in Poland?

I would need to check more details, but government just promised subsidies in range of 3 thousand zloty for every houshold using coal that will be unable to heat itself. Bill is currently awaiting to be proceeded in Parliament, however there are discussion if it will apply to small businessess as well.

So it seems we are preparing for hard winter, just like rest of Europe. No doubts Poland and Germany will support each other energy-wise during energy stoppages, which will be unavoidable if we need to stay on this course. Will probably trade gas for coal from time to time. When comes to resolve on UA issue don't worry about ours, hate for Putin beats everything.

 

@panzermartin Look what perfidious NATO forced poor Mother Russia to do in its "own" neighbourhood...long read, but worth it:  https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/22/ukraine-torture-disappearances-occupied-south

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[Billy Ringo]

Decided to delete.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Decided to delete.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

First of all, my posts are not about who was worse. My posts about disinformation being spread here:

• Calling RU evil is incorrect
• RU needs to be given the benefit of doubt
• RU is not bad yet etc. 

The disinformation above is wrong and must stop. 

I said nothing of that. I said Russia is evil, I didn't give Russia the benefit of the doubt, I said they are bad. Period.

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

They fooled you with labor word in the name. 

It was your quote. I don't think you tried to fool me, though.

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

the real world is different Western European school textbooks. 

 

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

The world where I was born and the world you know nothing about. 

I assume, you know no more about my background than I know about yours. So you could at least give me the benefit of the doubt (here it would make sense, I think). I highly value your knowledge and your opinion. You are very welcome to tell me where I err. But I politely ask you to do it in a less disparaging way. I am certain you know more about Russian concentration camps than I do which is probably really not that much more than a history textbook.

I freely admit that I am by no means an expert. Like most here, history is some kind of a hobby for me. Still, I am rather certain that I know quite a lot more about our history of 1939-45 than the average European school textbooks and also more than the average German textbook. If you have some kind of first hand knowledge about German concentration camps or have an academic degree in history of the 20th century I apologize. The "normal" German concentration camp was much like you describe the Russian ones,  inmates there were meant to die eventually. Still, a "real" extermination camp was, in my opinion, a different level of evil. With that in mind, when I talk about nuances, my intention is not to relativize past or present Soviet/Russian deeds. I don't say this as a German who might feel obliged to say we were the worst because we were taught to. I think that the Nazis were there own level of evil because of how they institutionalized and industrualized atrocities that maybe others commited too but in a less organized way. I feel these nuances are things we should be more precise about and I don't like the way everything evil above a certain threshold is immediately likened to the Nazis. I honestly think, the modern day Russians aren't there yet and I haven't seen proof that could convince me otherwise. That doesn't mean they are not evil in a very bad way. It only means, they could still be worse. Saying this does not trivialize them or their victims.

WWel, that is my opinion and I think I am entitled to it - but I am very open to discuss it and be convinced that I am wrong.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Butschi
removed doubled text blocks

[Grigb]

RU mil historian on the current issues of VDV

Summary - RU military finally discovered that their ideas for VDV use are wrong. Parachuting into a combat zone from a transport plane is suicidal. VDV light armor is too light to survive on the modern battlefield. 

Quote

The VDV is dead.
I'm not talking about the number of combat-ready personnel and equipment remaining in the airborne forces of the Russian Armed Forces (the loss of troops is total F*ck up, but let those who is responsible to say it themselves), I want to say about the essence of the [airborne] troops, which does not give them the right to exist. If, of course, we want to ruin the elite, then let VDV remain in the form they are now (angry sarcasm, sorry).

In 2009, I finished work on a reference and historical publication on the history of Soviet airborne units, where I cited the dynamics of structural changes corresponding to the views of contemporaries on the principles of combat use of troops that could be thrown into the enemy's rear by parachutes, investigated the weapons adopted in the airborne forces, its capabilities to defeat standard equipment of a potential enemy, conducted analysis of real combat use, where parachute landing took place - as it was conceived by the founding fathers - and [I] stated the exceptional complexity of a full-fledged and successful airborne operation. My book (the circulation has been sold out for a long time, it is on the web under the name Airborne Forces of the Soviets (taken as a basis, a teacher of the RCPU turned it into a textbook on the history of the Airborne Forces, according to which future officers are taught history). Therefore, I consider myself a competent enough observer to reflect on the essence of the troops.

***

Now we see a dead end in the development of the airborne Forces. And the SMO in Ukraine seems to put a full stop on the airborne Forces (in the form in which they are now).
The development impasse consists of two main points and an uncountable number of additional ones.

Point No. 1: the development of air defense systems makes it impossible for troops to land en masse behind enemy lines, when even one soldier with MANPAD is able to destroy a company (recall Lugansk Il-76, by the way), and three soldiers - a battalion. Interestingly, before the start of the SMO, two dozen Il-76s were still ready to parachute troops, however, reason triumphed, the parachute landing was canceled.

Point No. 2: the inability of light military equipment of the Airborne Forces to conduct a combined-arms battle (obviously, this is a truth that does not require proof), especially with the modern saturation of enemy troops with high-precision anti-tank weapons.

***

If these two main issues are resolved, then the airborne forces can be developed further, but for now, as the landing on Gostomel and in Kakhovka showed, the airborne forces can exist only in the form of airborne assault units.
Criticize - offer.
I am sure that work on the creation of active defense complexes, both for IL-76 and BMD, is underway somewhere. I really want to believe it.

I need to note that this issue was widely discussed in RU military history circles ages ago but apparently RU High Command ignored it until it was too late. 

[Butschi]

39 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

 

Whether in my work in sales, marketing and or observing politics I've learned to look for specific terms and/or methods of influence.  From the first quote, who is this "we" that is mentioned on multiple occassions?  Is this some manner to convince others that everyone share's this view?  There is no "WE" in that context--it is your opinion whether it be right or wrong.  

From the second point, whenever I see "I think we can all agree", or "we all know", or "it's a well known fact" or in this case, "No point in debating this" it is a blatant attempt to shut down any counter argument typically used when the statement is extremely hard to defend.  An old sales trick.  

I'm still new here and war is not my area of specialty nor do I try to call a comment out as my depth of knowledge in this field is limited.  But I've seen continued use of these techniques by certain posters and finally felt the need to comment.  

Peace.

Valid point but keep in mind that many of us here are not native speakers, so don't interpret too much into single words/sentences. Also what you describe can be used as a way to manipulate your audience or just be an attempt at trying to find a common ground in order to lessen tensions a bit, as some topics we discuss can be really emotional to some.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Butschi
rephrased to make meaning more clear

[Probus]

At least, @Billy Ringo we are not seeing a lot of 'well actually' comments. 

Well actually, that may not be true... 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Probus