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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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17 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Stay tuned for the next episode of the reality show Death of Stalin 2

"Next, on Survivor"  😃.  Looks like getting voted off the island is in full swing with all the firings and 'resignations' that are occurring.   And I imagine 'tribe mergers' are not a possibility?

**Edit - Survivor is a popular reality show in North America and my comment above is a reference to that.  Realized that other members may not be familiar with the show and hence, not understand my reference.

Edited by BlackMoria
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21 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Belarussian citizens have started receiving conscription notices, local news outlet Zerkalo reported on June 30.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/belarus-sends-out-conscription-notices-en-masse-50253394.html

Any idea how reliable this news outlet is? If it is true, it's going to be interesting.

I tried to check few Belarus sources and so far nothing of sort.

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2 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU propaganda channels are spreading rumor that there is an agreement to lift RU blockade of UKR black seaports (to allow export of UKR grain under Turkey supervision) in exchange of lifting Kaliningrad "blockade". Retreat from Snake Island was related to that agreement (no need to suffer losses when main goal of grain blockade is no longer applicable). They are saying that in a couple of days Kaliningrad "blockade" will be lifted.

Well, if it is true, there is possibility that Kaliningrad "blockade" was a EU ploy to force RU (with UKR "gentle push") to lift UKR grain blockade. 

Snake Island is a key area, a control of which is required for assaulting Odessa from sea.

Yet nobody trusts russians here to start demining the beaches.

No agreement with russians is possible, they always break those

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12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This isn't about how many weeks or months it will take to train up a few hundred thousand new recruits.  It's not about where Russia is going to find all the equipment for them, from uniforms to tanks, to be effective fighters.  It's not about having enough food, ammo, fuel, and other consumables needed to support such a force.

Would it be fair to say that it's also about the nature of this war that fielding more infantry won't really translate into more battlefield success, since it's now mostly a "war of the weapons systems" - infantry used as cannon fodder to hold thin lines and probe ahead in order to call in artillery, rather than to actually do any combined arms warfare that would require well trained troops?

I'm getting the feeling that this war is basically WW1 with drones. Neither side is able to crush the opponent with tanks, neither with airpower. So it's trench warfare with artillery firing away, more accurately and deadly now than back then, and for this reason we're not seeing any massed troops or human wave attacks.

 

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3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

"Next, on Survivor"  😃.  Looks like getting voted off the island is in full swing with all the firings and 'resignations' that are occurring.   And I imagine 'tribe mergers' are not a possibility?

Both tribe mergers and alliances are possible. For example, Putin KGB clan came to power through Party clan resulting in their merger (more like KGB consumed Party clan). The movie Death of Stalin depicts infamous alliance between Party (Khrushchev) clan and Military (Zhukov) clan against KGB (Beria) clan.

Still all clans hold a certain degree of animosity toward each other because they share almost no common values.  So, it does not happen lightly and mostly temporal in nature. For example, AFAIR Khrushchev later "betrayed" Zhukov and threw him out of USSR "Olympus" as Zhukov was becoming way too powerful.

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1 hour ago, kraze said:

No agreement with russians is possible, they always break those

Please don't always state so indifferentiated stuff about everything Russian. I guess they won't suffer too much from hurt feelings but for me it just doesn't add anything useful to the discussion. Of course it is possible to have agreements with Russians in general. It is not like they were somehow genetically unable to. There were quite a lot in the past that weren't broken. I wouldn't trust the Putin, his cronies and quite a few others farther than I can lob a 155mm shell at them but that doesn't mean we can never try to reach an agreement with any Russian ever again - which would be a very bleak outlook indeed.

EDIT: Modified one sentence. Didn't make much sense. My bad.

Edited by Butschi
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30 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am so triggered about term "tank" being used for anything with tracks. 

On the plus side maybe the public will get desensitized and nobody even notices the two Abrams brigades in the future...

We'll see, but it probably means VABs for now. Anyhow, what's more interesting is the 500 artillery systems, and more MLRS. No way RU will repeat Severodonetsk scenario, their only remaining advantage is airpower. For now... 

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8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Please don't always state so indifferentiated stuff about everything Russian. I guess they won't suffer too much from hurt feelings but for me it just doesn't add anything useful to the discussion. Of course it is possible to have agreements with Russians in general like they were somehow genetically unable to. There were quite a lot in the past that weren't broken. I wouldn't trust the Putin, his cronies and quite a few others farther than I can lob a 155mm shell at them but that doesn't mean we can never try to reach an agreement with any Russian ever again - which would be a very bleak outlook indeed.

When people talk of "the Russians" saying "no agreement with the Russians is possible" and "the Russians are leaving the Snake island" and "the Russians are running a secret mobilisation", they are talking about Russian government, Russian state and Russian mainstream culture of nationalism and superiority and imperial mindset, not about every individual person with Russian citizenship or heritage.

Pretending it is the other way around - that people are making statement about how all people of Russian heritage carry monstrous genes or something - is common manipulation tactic that is trying to make criticism or Russia sound racist or something.

You could see it in use right in this thread, where some guy chose to interpret someone saying "Russian Federation falling apart into smaller states would likely be best scenario for both safety of Eastern Europe and people currently living in Russian Federation" as "everybody here is promoting genocide of Russians".

We all know that there is not evil gene in Russian DNA (and my friend who is a biologist focusing on evolution would tell you that the idea of "Russian DNA" is by itself nonsense). Posting "not all Russians" is only useful for Russia because it causes infighting on our side.

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17 hours ago, Machor said:

What are the 'axes' referred to in the tweet?

It's a joke - in USSR there was cheap and prevalent portwine "777". Because "7" has similar form to an axe, people called this wine "three axes" and this name moved to US howitzers :)

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, BlackMoria said:

"Next, on Survivor"  😃.  Looks like getting voted off the island is in full swing with all the firings and 'resignations' that are occurring.   And I imagine 'tribe mergers' are not a possibility?

**Edit - Survivor is a popular reality show in North America and my comment above is a reference to that.  Realized that other members may not be familiar with the show and hence, not understand my reference.

Putin thought he was playing a social game that would allow him to make it to the final, but hopefully he'll be blindsided soon and get punted off.

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Another good news today. Russian TG channel claims landing craft D-106 (pr.1176, NATO Ondatra class) blew up on the mine in Azov sea near Mariupol. It's unclear either vessel sank or just was damaged. 

D-106 belonged to 170th battalion of minesweepers (don't try to find logic here) of 184th litoral guarding brigade, Novorossiysk base. This is single landing craft of this type on Black Sea Fleet, which remained in service since Soviet time. Ukrianian Naval Forces also has one vessel of this type.  

Зображення

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Another good news today. Russian TG channel claims landing craft D-106 (pr.1176, NATO Ondatra class) blew up on the mine in Azov sea near Mariupol. It's unclear either vessel sank or just was damaged. 

D-106 belonged to 170th battalion of minesweepers (don't try to find logic here) of 184th litoral guarding brigade, Novorossiysk base. This is single landing craft of this type on Black Sea Fleet, which remained in service since Soviet time. Ukrianian Naval Forces also has one vessel of this type.  

Зображення

 

Given it's size, there's no way it still can be in running condition after hitting a mine. Another good news indeed!

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56 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

When people talk of "the Russians" saying "no agreement with the Russians is possible" and "the Russians are leaving the Snake island" and "the Russians are running a secret mobilisation", they are talking about Russian government, Russian state and Russian mainstream culture of nationalism and superiority and imperial mindset, not about every individual person with Russian citizenship or heritage.

Pretending it is the other way around - that people are making statement about how all people of Russian heritage carry monstrous genes or something - is common manipulation tactic that is trying to make criticism or Russia sound racist or something.

You could see it in use right in this thread, where some guy chose to interpret someone saying "Russian Federation falling apart into smaller states would likely be best scenario for both safety of Eastern Europe and people currently living in Russian Federation" as "everybody here is promoting genocide of Russians".

We all know that there is not evil gene in Russian DNA (and my friend who is a biologist focusing on evolution would tell you that the idea of "Russian DNA" is by itself nonsense). Posting "not all Russians" is only useful for Russia because it causes infighting on our side.

I see how my post can be interpreted in that way... I modified my post a bit because it didn't nake much sense. Proof reading helps... My intention was not to discredit Kraze or making up some strawman argument. I was referring to some of Kraze's previous posts. If you look through them, you will find that he more or less literally said that Russians in general have some those negative traits. That is something I find extremely irritating and not very helpful for the discussion. Which is a pitty because of Kraze's otherwise valuable insights.

Edited by Butschi
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22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Nope, that was 2 BGs and a Service Bn.  Afghanistan was a BG, a PRT and a bunch of enablers.  Last time was 4 CMBG in Lahr.  We could probably bolt one together out of what is left, sustaining it should be fun.  So glad I am not in the CA right now, they must be going nuts.

I wouldn't be in a rush to open any brown envelopes from the government for a bit though ... you might end up on your travels in a cheeky little green outfit.

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14 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

I wouldn't be in a rush to open any brown envelopes from the government for a bit though ... you might end up on your travels in a cheeky little green outfit.

I was thinking now is the time to get out and cash in on that tsunami of contractor money they are going to need to spend...they can keep the medals, I want the cash...sweet cash....

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47 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I see how my post can be interpreted in that way... I modified my post a bit because it didn't nake much sense. Proof reading helps... My intention was not to discredit Kraze or making up some strawman argument. I was referring to some of Kraze's previous posts. If you look through them, you will find that he more or less literally said that Russians in general have some those negative traits. That is something I find extremely irritating and not very helpful for the discussion. Which is a pitty because of Kraze's otherwise valuable insights.

Well, there's some truth to it being a cultural problem and not just a couple of rotten apples.  Generally speaking, leadership reflects at least some portion of the civil society's values.

You should take a look at this prewar video that made the rounds big time in the first week or two of the war...

At one point he talks about how Russian culture allows for outright lying, provided it is for some sort of gain.  I've seen this first hand back in the 2014 discussions here on this thread.  When it was pointed out that Putin was lying the Russian posters here defended the lies, first by claiming they weren't lies.  Later, when it was absolutely beyond any doubt that Putin was lying they said, and I paraphrase, "well, of course he was lying.  He had to do it because the truth was problematic".  And that is the problem right there in a nutshell.

Specifically, of course, Russia has made very specific agreements in this war and since 2014 that were blatantly disregarded.  Usually resulting in Ukrainians dying as a direct result.  Ukraine should never, ever, in a million years trust anything that Russia agrees to until there's a fundamental change to how Russia (state) behaves.

Steve

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