How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

It all makes sense now.

So would this make Putin an MI6 agent and Ukrainians not Slavic folks?

WTF??  So idiot says Putin has no agency and that Slavs are being slaughtered.  Dude, did you not even look at the official talking points???

[Combatintman]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well we have to find one first....

I think you last left it in the Former Yugoslavia if that's any help finding it ... 

[Jammason]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

"...my only conclusion is once he feels like he has enough, he's gonna declare it over, demand a ceasefire and spin it so that Russia is the more principled one looking for peace, and Ukraine is being unreasonable. (Which they aren't, but Russia is stewing in its own reality) and that will matter as Putin tries his best to divide the west and dry up support for Ukraine.

^This. And once Ukraine and allies reject the offer, RU is going to dig in like a tick. Consider: Ukraine will not be accepted as a member of NATO (and probably not EU), while there are active Russian military strikes against it. To keep Ukraine out of NATO, then, all Russia has to do is be in a perpetual state of military aggression against it. Expect Russia to gear up for an exceptionally long war. Screwing with Ukraine is about to become a national pastime (if not official policy). The will of Ukraine and the West to endure economic and physical pain and suffering is going to be tested. You are right to think Russia will be tested too, but their infrastructure is only subject to sanctions (and we're seeing, while they have bite, there are holes and workarounds --India, China, "dual use", etc-- that dull the teeth considerably), not cruise missiles.

[FancyCat]

It is in Russia's interest to show off to the world that it will fight forever in Ukraine, that Ukraine is a fight of survival for the outclassed Russian state against the stronger NATO and EU degenerates in order to more easily divide NATO and EU in supporting Ukraine, uneasy over this seemingly forever conflict. In the same vein that Ukraine needed to illustrate to the West they weren't gonna cut and run like Afghanistan before getting money and weapons, Russia must show a unrelenting profile of eternal conflict in Ukraine to stare down the West and make them blink.

Their rhetoric does not match their actions, in the same vein as threatening to nuke London over British support to the Ukrainian Nazis there is no accompanying mobilization and raising alert level in their strategic missile forces, and as they say they fight a "war of survival for the motherland" in their media studios, Girkin bitterly complains about the lack of mobilization for war and foretells of a Russian defeat.

On that note, Girkin, a ardent Russian nationalist desperately wants to win in Ukraine and he is complaining of the government losing the war. Certainly, the actual mobilization of Russian society for war would reopen doors and opportunities for him in particular but also for the empowerment of more hardline factions he represents. That Putin fails to do so, imo indicates again that we may be farther away from that irrationality where Putin is infected in such a manner that he must die or risk blowing all of Russia up.

20 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

It all makes sense now.

So would this make Putin an MI6 agent and Ukrainians not Slavic folks?

Right on time.

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russia's threats in the subversive realm are likely the only vector of power delivery that they demonstrated a world class aptitude; however, we need to be careful here as to how much was them  and how much was us. But that point stands.  What I do not see is how to translate a global reach and influence in subversive or political warfare into a global power pole.  It can definitely support and reinforce it, but at some point "power is power" and a nation has to be able to demonstrate this across dimensions - Russia could not, and now can not.

One thing that I do disagree with is this sentiment that "Putin is in the drivers seat", that he somehow has the strategic initiative.  He does not, unless we cede it to him.  He can take the Donbas, declare victory and demand peace, play the 'wounded victim' card when UA keep kicking them in the crotch...the Ukrainians are not likely to roll over and we in the West would be seriously remis in trying to push for that.  It essentially gives Russia a win that will come back and bite us all viciously later.   

The reality is that we, the West, are in the driver seat - we gots all the money and guns; what we seem to be shy on is the will.  We decide when this is over, not Russia.  We could pull all aid and support and this thing would end badly for Ukraine in a few weeks.  They would resist, I have no doubt of that, but it would be a long agonizing insurgency with no outside support.  Further, we decide when to stop holding Russian feet to flames, not Putin.  We can re-wire energy sectors and put Russia in the doghouse for a half-century if we are willing - we did exactly that to the Soviet Union.

Putin's only chance, and he has bet it all on this, is that we will split, falter and fail.  It is on us to see this for what it really is and not let that happen.  The good news is that so far we have done amazingly, far more than most ever expected, but do we have the will to go the distance?  That is the big question here.

I disagree, being a kingmaker in other countries is quite powerful. I will bring up GrigB stating that Russia becoming a 3rd Pole in the world is more a carve out for Russia's sphere of influence and note that should the U.S fall apart in global influence, (like if the U.S pulled out of NATO), the resulting vaccum falls neatly in line with a longstanding Russian goal of a divide where Germany and France rule over Europe, Russia regains her border regions in EE, she take firm dominance in Central Asia. Recall the German Admiral, high-ranking as well, who stated to Indian naval officials that the focus should be on allying with Russia and India to oppose China. The breakup of Anglo-American influence in Europe, would facilitate that arrangement nicely. The loss of America in European defense makes it a lot easier to pull apart the rest of NATO and bring about that dreaded betrayal EE is worried about.

I absolutely agree with you that the driver is the West, I'm just pointing out that Putin is making moves and they were never as irrational as they seem at first glance, mistakes? Absolutely, but the die roll honestly could have been such that he might have been immortalized as the reviver of Russia's empire. How fortunate he's in the process of being destroyed.

Now Putin must go....well aside from the fact it's pretty impossible as we discussed before, there is a chance I think we can come to a sort of arrangement. Oh I don't think we need to do anything different than refrain from invading Russia or overthrowing Putin. If Putin does not want to become Gaddafi, whom it is rumored he is obsessed with how the man ended up brutally murdered, he needs to keep his options open even now, and if he opens himself up to full-scale military defeat in Ukraine, he may well get the fate of Gaddafi. That's the key, full scale defeat. If he's already lost, there isn't any point in mobilizing. Maybe hes pinning his hopes on a stalemate, but there's a lot to be said about the lack of mobilization will render even stalemate impossible but if he pulls all the stops and Russia still loses, he gets the ax. Maybe his division of the West might pull off at the last minute. But he can't lend anymore rope to hardliners to hang himself i think.

Instead, if I were Putin, I would prep the way to hang the whole field of senior intelligence and military for failure in Ukraine and wipe out my enemies internally by blaming them for Ukraine. If any of them die in Ukraine, even better.

Now certainly this is outlandish, but hey, there isn't any obligation for a different leader than Putin to automatically steer the country towards peace and good relations with her neighbors and plenty of evidence Russian society may not accept such a person as leader anyway. Another leader climbs up, and is eager to cut his chops, or we can just have the bastard Putin stew in Moscow alone till he dies. It's certainly easier than trying to comb among the Russian elite for someone who can keep them in line without invading their neighbors and certainly easier than watching them initiate a breakup of the Russian Federation.

Considering this is the most likely scenario, where Putin remains as leader of Russia but kicked out of Ukraine (vs overthrown) all I'm really saying is killing Putin is not 100% needed just yet.

[Grigb]

16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The fact that personnel like the Rosgvardiya who got lawyers and got themselves discharged instead of being deployed to Ukraine emphasizes for all the dictatorship and mafia structures, there is still a sort of legality, structure that can allow this to occur. I think it's important to recognize that wouldn't fly in wars or more aptly national wars for survival that the Russian state and government media is so frenzied about warning about NATO and EU

Conventional military operations on the scale we see is war according to RU military science. But Putin does not want to make a formal declaration for various reasons.  Because of that low level bureaucrats must follow peacetime formalities you mentioned. 

 

17 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I wonder as part of the strategy to turn the Russian people apathetic, the bombardment of conflicting information makes it easier for people to accept changes in narrative without getting worked up over it. So maybe Russians might accept whatever happens in Ukraine, war or lose as long as Putin keeps the war losses limited to the volunteers or poor in Russian society and therefore out of sight and state media says all is well.

Define what do you mean by accept. if we are talking about whether RU population would want to continue the fight - no, they do not want to fight and ready to accept anything short of retreat to Feb 24 border. Under specific circumstances they can accept even the retreat. Under very-very specific circumstances they can even accept full retreat to 2014 borders.

But the issue is not war or peace. The issue is the legitimacy of Putin. To be seen as legitimate ruler Putin must crash UKR. Anything less RU population will not accept > internal regime change. 

 

34 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

In that sense, it's important NATO does not escalate the conflict. If Putin wants to lie to the people, so be it, just get the hell out of Ukraine. No need to invade Russia. No need to generate actual patriotic fever with war with NATO that causes people to sign up for the army, that is something the state media can't control.

Not escalating conflict will show to RU people that NATO is weak and fears Putin. That will increase Putin legitimacy and most likely ensure his survival. That will lead to the second round of war as independent Ukraine is not something RU will ever accept voluntarily. 

 

34 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

No need to generate actual patriotic fever with war with NATO that causes people to sign up for the army, that is something the state media can't control.

RU patriotic fever is invention of RU propaganda to dupe anybody unfamiliar with RU people. In reality RU patriotic fever disappear as soon as there is danger to patriots lifes.

Putin already declared that they fight against NATO almost 10 years ago. UKR maidan was labeled as direct US intervention. UKR goverment was declared as US puppet like years ago. Yet, they still struggle to get people to enlist or  call mobilization. 

 

50 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I really dunno why tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are dead, and Russian society is barely budging. I think as long as that persists, it would be a mistake to actually escalate rhetoric cause evidently, Russians don't really give a damn about the losses, why should we act and give them targets to focus their anger on.

RU population cares a lot about losses. For example, I can describe RU reaction to Afghan war and Kurks submarine catastrophe. It very different from they do not care.   

It is just RU population does not know the extent of losses. They know it is bad but they do not know how much bad it is. And they do not know because they do not want to know. Currently they are in the denial stage. Very little can be done about it. 

 

50 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

What I'm saying is the base of the Russian people's attitude to this conflict seems much more softer than it should be. There is a disconnect between words and actions in Russia and it would be a mistake to not look into it and let Putin have his ****ty out, as long as Ukraine can join the EU and NATO pre-2014 borders, I don't give a damn about Russia.

You let Putin out > RU people will see that NATO is weak, Putin is stronk > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

You crash Putin balls > RU sees Putin is weak, NATO is strong >  Legitimacy of Putin collapses > regime change > very good possibility of much softer ruler coming to power > various good and bad options West can work with. A good strategy.

It seems you're not familiar with RU street rules Putin and much of RU were growing up with.

 

50 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Why slow-broiling the frog is important, bit by bit NATO kit in Ukraine improves and the lack of Russian coherent and strong response to stop it shows it's the right idea in ensuring that when Russia finally pulls the gas to Europe in desperation to stop the equipment flowing, we can go vainly "no, no we stop, we don't give anymore" as Ukraine wipes out every Russian ammo dump in the country.

The moment NATO says no, no we stop, we don't give anymore is the moment Putin wins internally. RU people will see it as glorious defeat of NATO by Glorious Leader Putin > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

[Grigb]

45 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

WTF??  So idiot says Putin has no agency and that Slavs are being slaughtered.  Dude, did you not even look at the official talking points???

We talk about it little bit earlier - RU Nationalist are preparing to throw Putin under the bus. So, they are coming up with excuse that Putin is a puppet of heinous foreigners. And through puppet Putin the heinous foreigners duped RU people to attack UKR and kill Ukrainians. So, it is no RU fault. 

[FancyCat]

Or another way, it's too premature to say Putin must go, that regime change in whatever way is done is required to safeguard Europe and Ukraine. Putin may just leave Ukraine, in a twisted sense. Assuming this forum thread and more optimistic thinkers are correct, and without mobilization, Russia WILL lose and Russia MAYBE loses with mobilization, assuming Putin isn't just being fed absolute lies and falsehoods on the Russian war machine, and knows the same or similar lack of mobilization means the defeat of the Russian military, that whatever mobilization does for Russia, it does not outweigh losing in Ukraine. Reflect on that. He can lose the war with Ukraine in it's current format. But he cannot afford to mobilize the population.

Now my argument falls flat if he's being fed trash by his officers and officials which tbh, is just as likely a reason as him trying to preserve his options.

[FancyCat]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Conventional military operations on the scale we see is war according to RU military science. But Putin does not want to make a formal declaration for various reasons.  Because of that low level bureaucrats must follow peacetime formalities you mentioned. 

 

Define what do you mean by accept. if we are talking about whether RU population would want to continue the fight - no, they do not want to fight and ready to accept anything short of retreat to Feb 24 border. Under specific circumstances they can accept even the retreat. Under very-very specific circumstances they can even accept full retreat to 2014 borders.

But the issue is not war or peace. The issue is the legitimacy of Putin. To be seen as legitimate ruler Putin must crash UKR. Anything less RU population will not accept > internal regime change. 

 

Not escalating conflict will show to RU people that NATO is weak and fears Putin. That will increase Putin legitimacy and most likely ensure his survival. That will lead to the second round of war as independent Ukraine is not something RU will ever accept voluntarily. 

 

RU patriotic fever is invention of RU propaganda to dupe anybody unfamiliar with RU people. In reality RU patriotic fever disappear as soon as there is danger to patriots lifes.

Putin already declared that they fight against NATO almost 10 years ago. UKR maidan was labeled as direct US intervention. UKR goverment was declared as US puppet like years ago. Yet, they still struggle to get people to enlist or  call mobilization. 

 

RU population cares a lot about losses. For example, I can describe RU reaction to Afghan war and Kurks submarine catastrophe. It very different from they do not care.   

It is just RU population does not know the extent of losses. They know it is bad but they do not know how much bad it is. And they do not know because they do not want to know. Currently they are in the denial stage. Very little can be done about it. 

 

You let Putin out > RU people will see that NATO is weak, Putin is stronk > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

You crash Putin balls > RU sees Putin is weak, NATO is strong >  Legitimacy of Putin collapses > regime change > very good possibility of much softer ruler coming to power > various good and bad options West can work with. A good strategy.

It seems you're not familiar with RU street rules Putin and much of RU were growing up with.

 

The moment NATO says no, no we stop, we don't give anymore is the moment Putin wins internally. RU people will see it as glorious defeat of NATO by Glorious Leader Putin > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

I am not familiar with Russia. I appreciate anything you correct me on.

So why not mobilize if he must win? Or is the propaganda just so paper thin in Russia that it's his end if he calls it? The good thing if your correct, is Ukraine only need to defeat the current units in Ukraine and whatever they can find from the bottom and that's it. She basically gets to roll them back to pre-2014 instead needing to fight a mobilized Russia.

Edited June 29, 2022 by FancyCat

[holoween]

22 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Conventional military operations on the scale we see is war according to RU military science. But Putin does not want to make a formal declaration for various reasons.  Because of that low level bureaucrats must follow peacetime formalities you mentioned. 

 

Define what do you mean by accept. if we are talking about whether RU population would want to continue the fight - no, they do not want to fight and ready to accept anything short of retreat to Feb 24 border. Under specific circumstances they can accept even the retreat. Under very-very specific circumstances they can even accept full retreat to 2014 borders.

But the issue is not war or peace. The issue is the legitimacy of Putin. To be seen as legitimate ruler Putin must crash UKR. Anything less RU population will not accept > internal regime change. 

 

Not escalating conflict will show to RU people that NATO is weak and fears Putin. That will increase Putin legitimacy and most likely ensure his survival. That will lead to the second round of war as independent Ukraine is not something RU will ever accept voluntarily. 

 

RU patriotic fever is invention of RU propaganda to dupe anybody unfamiliar with RU people. In reality RU patriotic fever disappear as soon as there is danger to patriots lifes.

Putin already declared that they fight against NATO almost 10 years ago. UKR maidan was labeled as direct US intervention. UKR goverment was declared as US puppet like years ago. Yet, they still struggle to get people to enlist or  call mobilization. 

 

RU population cares a lot about losses. For example, I can describe RU reaction to Afghan war and Kurks submarine catastrophe. It very different from they do not care.   

It is just RU population does not know the extent of losses. They know it is bad but they do not know how much bad it is. And they do not know because they do not want to know. Currently they are in the denial stage. Very little can be done about it. 

 

You let Putin out > RU people will see that NATO is weak, Putin is stronk > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

You crash Putin balls > RU sees Putin is weak, NATO is strong >  Legitimacy of Putin collapses > regime change > very good possibility of much softer ruler coming to power > various good and bad options West can work with. A good strategy.

It seems you're not familiar with RU street rules Putin and much of RU were growing up with.

 

The moment NATO says no, no we stop, we don't give anymore is the moment Putin wins internally. RU people will see it as glorious defeat of NATO by Glorious Leader Putin > Legitimacy of Putin will increase > there is no regime change > Putin lick wounds > Putin attacks again > WW3. Not a very good strategy.

You teally need to read up on how people react to outside pressure. Its literally never an overthrowing of their leader even if unpopular. Its always a move towards their leaders to protect them. The NATO is threatening us shtick has been putins biggest source of public support for a long time.

[sburke]

39 minutes ago, Jammason said:

 all Russia has to do is be in a perpetual state of military aggression against it. Expect Russia to gear up for an exceptionally long war. Screwing with Ukraine is about to become a national pastime (if not official policy). The will of Ukraine and the West to endure economic and physical pain and suffering is going to be tested. 

Russia has been doing this since 2014.  Unfortunately for Putin the cost of that has gone way up.  The West and Ukraine can afford a longer war more than Russia can.  Time is not a resource for Putin or Russia.

[Megalon Jones]

US V Corps has been reactivated and is heading for a permanent HQ to Poland.

[MikeyD]

It appears Putin may be facing the same manpower problem that Ukraine faced at the start of the war. More potential soldiers than they have the means to equip them. Russia has already resorted to raiding Belarus's warfighting stocks to make up for deficiencies. I don't know what they're currently doing to provide food rations to the troops they've got. If Russia were to mobilize a quarter million men they'd then have to clothe, feed, train and arm them (and house and pay them). They'd need officers to lead them. I don't think Russia's in a position to 'scale up'. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 minute ago, Megalon Jones said:

US V Corps has been reactivated and is heading for a permanent HQ to Poland.

Dustin Walker has some thoughts on this and related items from the announcement.

• The V Corps HQ in Poland: this is not the HQ itself (which is at Ft Knox), but its forward command post that simply goes from being rotational to permanent.
• Destroyers in Spain: US already has 4. Navy has been in the process of going to 6 for years. Agreement with Spain may be new, but the move is not.
• F-35 squadrons in UK: already planned to station 2 squadrons at Lakenheath. Difficult to imagine this is really 2 more on top. If it is, that would be a mistake given the need for 5th gen aircraft in the Indo-Pacific.
• Baltic rotations: important to keep building a small, sustainable, but responsive and potent US presence. If we’re shifting to deterrence by denial in the Baltics, European allies should provide new forces required.
• Rotational BCT in Romania: Finally more focus in SE Europe/Black Sea. This BCT rotation was suggested in the last admin (only then it was at the expense of 2CR in Germany). Will this impact fielding & deployment of MDTFs with full capability suite in the Indo-Pacific?
• HQ elements in Germany: ADA BDE HQ, SHORAD battalion, CSSB HQ, Engineer BDE HQ all seem like “deterrence package” elements the US Army has been planning for years, but were delayed by last admin. Again, doesn’t appear to be new.
• Air defense in Germany/Italy: Questionable that the US should be deploying more of our high-demand/low-supply air defense capabilities to Europe when our allies have capability and capacity (NASAMS, SAMP/T) and we’re lacking in the Indo-Pacific.
• Overall, not sure US deployments in Europe are being guided by any consistent rationale other than a basic desire for reassurance. With competing demands for forces in short supply, standard should be higher.

https://twitter.com/dustinrwalker/status/1542175369851199488

 

[Centurian52]

So I'm pretty much convinced at this point that Russia cannot win without full mobilization (unless the West suddenly stops all support for Ukraine). But I'm starting to wonder how much of a chance they would have even if they did mobilize. If Putin declared general mobilization tomorrow, what would that look like? I think I've heard that it would take a minimum of three months to turn a civilian into a passable rifleman, and so it would take around three months before fresh troops started flooding into Ukraine. What about reservists, who would need some refresher training in order to make them suitable for front-line service, but not as much as a freshly conscripted civilian? How long would it take for the reservists to start showing up in Ukraine? And how many new soldiers could Russia train at a time, particularly now that they've undermined their training infrastructure by sending their third battalions into Ukraine?

And how would the West respond? My intuition is that there is nothing more likely to instill a sense of urgency in the West for increasing the pace of weapons deliveries than hearing a Russian declaration of war and announcement of general mobilization. But are there hard limitations in how much we could increase the pace of weapons deliveries imposed by limited stocks or a multi-month lead time in manufacturing new equipment from scratch? How much more artillery do we have in reserve? Have we started producing new ammunition to send to Ukraine? Are we looking at starting deliveries of western tanks (I know we have a few thousand Abrams in storage that we aren't using at the moment, although we should probably keep some of those for Taiwan)? Have we started training the Ukrainians on western tanks yet?

How large of a force could Ukraine potentially generate if it had unlimited western equipment? How large of a force could Russia potentially generate if they mobilized, given their remaining stock of equipment and whatever post-sanction manufacturing capability they still have?

[Beleg85]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-still-wants-most-ukraine-war-outlook-grim-us-intelligence-chief-2022-06-29/

Nothing new, but it may show how Washington sees future of the conflict, with 3 main scenarios developing. It is curious they still assess (or publiclly state they assess...) that Putin still wants large chunks of Ukraine.

Edited June 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, Jammason said:

You are right to think Russia will be tested too, but their infrastructure is only subject to sanctions (and we're seeing, while they have bite, there are holes and workarounds --India, China, "dual use", etc-- that dull the teeth considerably), not cruise missiles.

My understanding from Perun's videos is that the sanctions are going to have a long lead time on their effects. The Russians are going to be hurting by late this year, but 2023 is when the real pain is going to start. So the sanctions do have teeth, but the effects aren't as immediate as bombs.

[poesel]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Colonies are usually more expensive than they are worth to the imperial core. The loss of 13% includes the return of Alsace–Lorraine to France, lost in 1871 and Poles to join Poland.

Also lost were Qingdao (the area east of Beijing) and the Solomons (both to Japan). Imagine if those two would have still been German at the beginning of WWII. Interesting what if.  

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-still-wants-most-ukraine-war-outlook-grim-us-intelligence-chief-2022-06-29/

Nothing new, but it may show how Washington sees future of the conflict, with 3 main scenarios developing. It is curious they still assess (or publiclly state they assess...) that Putin still wants large chunks of Ukraine.

"Putin wants....."  that's a funny couple of words.  He can't get what he wants and is actually getting mountains of what he doesn't want.  All that matters is that 'the west' recognizes that Putin will never stop trying to get what he wants, and therefore it's in all our interest to make sure he loses, badly, in Ukraine.  He has, of course, been a great asset to the cause of RU losing badly.  

[Grigb]

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I am not familiar with Russia. I appreciate anything you correct me on.

I am sorry if I sounded impolite. I am still trying to adjust myself to be a better man.

  

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

So why not mobilize if he must win? Or is the propaganda just so paper thin in Russia that it's his end if he calls it? 

On one hand RU is totally unprepared for mobilization. LDNR mobilization showed that the current RU leadership is too incompetent to make proper mobilization. On the other hand, it is politically dangerous as mobilization means a lot of RU people are going to die. So, a lot of people might decide that it is better to do a regime change. That's what happen in 1917. It is a nightmare scenario for a RU ruler.

 

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 The good thing if your correct, is Ukraine only need to defeat the current units in Ukraine and whatever they can find from the bottom and that's it. She basically gets to roll them back to pre-2014 instead needing to fight a mobilized Russia.

RU sources says that without mobilization RU have manpower until July-August. Also RU government announced that gas maintenance will last until end of July. So, we can be pretty sure Kremlin does expect things might become very bad at the end of July.

[Slaughterhouse-Five]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Canada has more economic and diplomatic power than Russia right now, and likely has a better chance of forming a 3rd global power pole.

I agree with a lot about economics.

 

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Russian dreams of global power

Rather, these are Putin’s ideas from the philosophy of Ivan Ilyin with fascist thoughts. Plus, these are the same delusional ideas of Eurasians, accepted by him. All this has been compounded by a sense of personal grievance when Western leaders did not always behave well towards Russia and Putin himself in the early 2000s. Plus Ressentiment and Russian irredentism. All this has given rise to such a stormy reaction.

By the way, I recommend the book by William J. Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency since March 19, 2021, and former ambassador of the United States to Russia "The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal". Much becomes clear.

[Grigb]

47 minutes ago, holoween said:

You teally need to read up on how people react to outside pressure. Its literally never an overthrowing of their leader even if unpopular. Its always a move towards their leaders to protect them.

And you need to get to the real world and find out that despite suffering horrendous losses and facing catastrophic manpower shortages Putin still avoids calling mobilization. And that after several months of RU propagandists screaming every day that NATO is threatening us. 

 

47 minutes ago, holoween said:

The NATO is threatening us shtick has been putins biggest source of public support for a long time.

His real shtick was the ability to pretend that under his leadership RU can deal with NATO. Germany attacking us did not helped Tsar. NATO is threatening us did not help neither USSR nor Yeltsin. Both Stalin and Putin however were good at pretending they can deal with Germany/NATO. It helped. 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I disagree, being a kingmaker in other countries is quite powerful.

Regional power maybe, but when your kingmaking influence only extends to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, I am not sure it puts a nation in the "global power" club.  Most of the US and Chinese influence has been $$$$ - and as we discussed Russia did not have a lot to start with and even less now. 

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Russia becoming a 3rd Pole in the world is more a carve out for Russia's sphere of influence and note that should the U.S fall apart in global influence, (like if the U.S pulled out of NATO),

I mean, sure, I guess?  But they need that vacuum and just started a war that did the opposite.  I mean that is a bit of a Rube Goldberg Strategy - IF we get the US to contract, AND IF we can count on the Europeans to sit on the sidelines, THEN we can extend influence in Eastern Europe - still without any real economic power, but maybe gas?  So this is the disrupt US and put in "friendly president" theory - which has some merit but I suspect that there are a lot of check and balances in US involvement in NATO (arms industry for one) that even the most isolationist US president could not easily side-step.   Of course his best strategy was patience if this were the case, not this train wreck.  I for one cannot see any rationality in this invasion.  I do see a lot of relative rationality and insular echo chamber type of thinking - building some pretty weak assumptions and no one to challenge them.  

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Instead, if I were Putin, I would prep the way to hang the whole field of senior intelligence and military for failure in Ukraine and wipe out my enemies internally by blaming them for Ukraine. If any of them die in Ukraine, even better.

Ok, so now we are getting somewhere...this plus "undeniable defeat" means that people in that power structure is going to start to see that their interests no longer align with El Putin...this is the stuff of quiet "retirements".  To be clear, I am not talking about any dramatic decapitation strikes, or Jason Bourne with a sniper rifle - that is Hollywood BS.  Most times you want an unworkable a$$hat out of power, you simply go down the list to a new a$$hat you can work with and "encourage" him to make his move.  In fact if you have done it correctly you might have a couple fallback options for later.  Problem is that you need to do the work to truly understand that power bloc at the top in high resolution, and there I am not sure if we have done the homework...because global order/new age/thousand points of light/terrorists/pandemic and picking a fight over our own toenails on just about every issue we can.  Putin is a 70 year old man you can take a trip down the stairs like anyone...trick is finding someone who will do the pushing, quietly.

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Now certainly this is outlandish, but hey, there isn't any obligation for a different leader than Putin to automatically steer the country towards peace and good relations with her neighbors and plenty of evidence Russian society may not accept such a person as leader anyway. Another leader climbs up, and is eager to cut his chops, or we can just have the bastard Putin stew in Moscow alone till he dies. It's certainly easier than trying to comb among the Russian elite for someone who can keep them in line without invading their neighbors and certainly easier than watching them initiate a breakup of the Russian Federation.

Considering this is the most likely scenario, where Putin remains as leader of Russia but kicked out of Ukraine (vs overthrown) all I'm really saying is killing Putin is not 100% needed just yet.

So this requires a level of underhanded "tinkering" we have not done in some time.  And you are correct, it comes with a lot of risk.  In most cases those risks outweigh these sorts of actions; however, not so much right now.  Further if you even hint that you are doing this you can drive a dictator to distraction with justified paranoia, which means he may very well slip up and accelerate the process. 

Regime change is really the final step - we are kind of jumping to the end.  It is everything we do to keep Russian isolated and contained before that happens that is important.  And we are already doing it - they got Canada to agree to sending a Brigade, which is hilarious - considering the Liberal Party is in a minority situation with the NDP propping them up.  Putin managed to unite the left in Canada and made them war hawks - crazy.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

The true victory for Turkiye seems to be this:

 

The Turks clearly got some of what they wanted. While the ongoing disputes with Turkey are not trivial, and are VERY significant for the Kurds, they do not involve the fundamental failure of the existing world order. The Russian war in Ukraine does. So the Turks getting a medium sized concession or three is just part of it.

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Erdogan is facing a very tough election. He needed to look strong but for a reason and he got to appear at least to have received good concessions. He also likely gets US military aid that Turkey really needs in the form of F-16's. 

It was the smart move and Erdogan handled it deftly. 

What Erdogan has flunked badly is the management of the Turkish economy. The inflation rate is ~100%, which is true melt down territory. He may have to cheat really blatantly to steal the next election. I am not sure how much that matters in the medium term. In the long term his son in law is the CEO and chief engineer of Barakyar, the drone manufacturer. So unlike Putin he a has an obvious and apparently competent successor in the family. REALLY curious to read and evaluation of his world view.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well we have to find one first....

Like a great meany things that need doing, munitions manufacturing comes to mind, the only way to ever finish is to get started.

[Grigb]

We have new but so far not very big scandal among nationalists regarding new exchange of 95 Azov Steel defenders. 

It is the same as with Tyra scandal. But I will quote the most interesting part of Girkin rant.

Quote

4. EVEN WORSE: our government has demonstrated that it DOES NOT HOPE [to get] A COMPLETE VICTORY.
Why? - Because if they would count on a complete victory (which Russia is quite entitled to count on in the fight against the ugly homunculus called "Ukraine"), such exchanges would be meaningless. Generally meaningless. And in order to protect our soldiers (including those who were captured due to their own cowardice, which (alas!) most of them) - it would be enough to treat the prisoners we have REALLY harshly (and warn the opposing enemy about it). Full stop.

We are watching the growing split between nationalists and RU government. We are heading toward a military/nationalist coup.

 

[Grigb]

And civilian "Girkin" aka Nesmyan continue to expresses displeasure

Quote

Now it's official: on June 29, at the NATO summit in Madrid, Sweden and Finland received an official invitation to join the military alliance.

After all the accession procedures are completed, the total number of countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will grow to 32.

(I remember that in the army, in political training classes, we were forced to memorize the NATO countries and the Warsaw Pact countries. Now these two lists have become one. With additions and updates)

The common border of the NATO countries (which today recognized Russia as the main threat to the alliance) will increase from 1,215 to 2,600 km.

It is worth considering here that NATO now controls both sides of the Baltic Sea, and this control is double: at the entrance to the Gulf of Finland and in the area of the Danish Straits. In fact, now you can close St. Petersburg tightly by simply pulling a clothesline across the Baltic between Finns and Estonians.

Peskov regularly states that the special operation is going according to plan. Should it be understood that the expansion of NATO is part of this plan?

Putin is losing the support of both military and civilian nationalists.