How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

On 6/12/2022 at 2:56 PM, Artkin said:

I would argue mraps are only useful until your opponent gains access to guided man portable AT weapons similar to Javelin and Nlaw. 

Even armies with massive numbers of ATGMs still have fewer ATGMs than machineguns. So I would still expect a lightly armored vehicle, that is proof against machineguns but not against any AT assets, to be more survivable than a soft truck. And if the MRAPS are used primarily for logistics near the front line, and mostly kept away from the actual front line, then I would expect light armor to provide a perfectly adequate amount of survivability. Unless you are advocating going back to horses, you need some sort of vehicle to supply your army.

[Haiduk]

About week ago or more there were reports that Russian shot with MLRS Ochakiv port are (also naval and seals base). The shellings lasted two days from the area of Kinburn spit. There were a reports that port tug and foreign cargo vessel were hit. Also there was an opinion Russians prepared for tactical landing operation in Ochakiv area and even our Operative Comamnd "South" several days after theese shellings claimed they sunk two landing boats, hidden near the shore of Dnipro-Bug firth. But oddly, theese two boats weren't included in the list of total Russian fleet losses. Either they were some civil crafts or there were no sunk boats.

Meanwhile Russians, issued photos and video from own UAV for 3rd-4th of June, how their MLRS strikes on UKR medium landing ship "Yurii Olefirenko" (Polnochny class), but missed (some Russian sources claimed, that Russian large landing ship fired own Grads at UKR landing ship). Also they claimed they sank UKR ASW corvette "Vinnytsia" (Grisha-II class). Though as claimed know UKR volunteer and military (especially fleet) expert Taras Chmut, "Vinnytsia" lay down on board herself - the ship was inoperate since 2008 and  at last was decomissioned in January 2021, she just stood and rusted in the port, expecting own fate without any maintenance. 

"Vinnytsia" on the board in Ochakiv

The shelling of "Yurii Olefirenko" 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

A huge advantage of the Switchblade 300 is a high-quality camera, which, among other things, allows you to conduct reconnaissance in search of targets.

I read a twitter of UKR soldier, who is Switchblade 300 operator, or had a talks with them. and he claims the main problem of this drone is not very good accuracy as expected, because, as I understand, it is hard to guide it directly in the target in final pahse. Also he told the camera quality is very poor and this another, but lesser reason of misses. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Even armies with massive numbers of ATGMs still have fewer ATGMs than machineguns. So I would still expect a lightly armored vehicle, that is proof against machineguns but not against any AT assets, to be more survivable than a soft truck. And if the MRAPS are used primarily for logistics near the front line, and mostly kept away from the actual front line, then I would expect light armor to provide a perfectly adequate amount of survivability. Unless you are advocating going back to horses, you need some sort of vehicle to supply your army.

The point about atgms is perfectly fine.

My issue with the MRAP is that it's a specialized tool that has a particular purpose.

It's best strength is being able to transport troops through areas that are mined with less of chance of injury. I assume they would operate also well in a heavy shrapnel environment. Word on the street is that the MRAP has a small interior... so for the Ukraine conflict, it makes sense to use these for logistical runs if you don't mind spending a ton of diesel and time in the process. In the case of MRLS launched mines: these mraps might be an excellent solution to navigating these areas. They even seem better designed to handle asphalt than off-roading given their high center of gravity.

For front line use, absolutely not. These huge hunks of steel would be spotted quickly and engaged with ease. I wouldn't want to be inside of one that's taking rounds larger than 7.62.

The MRAPs seem like a lot of wasted material. In my opinion it was a total waste to invest in them beyond our activities in Afghanistan. We have such a massive fleet of them now. They're best sold off asap, the public doesn't need another "War on terror" where these vehicles might find their true purpose again. 

In a conventional war featuring the US, I would expect our back lines to be clear of obstructions, or at least tended to ASAP - negating the need for MRAP like Ukraine currently does. In addition, our currently fleet of logistic vehicles appear to already be up-armored and up-gunned; Lessons learned from Afghanistan I assume.

[LongLeftFlank]

Nice topo of the Bohorodychne-Krasnopillya area, next block on RA 36th CAA's painfully slow and costly road to Sloviansk. They can't go around (or not without a major river crossing op).

OSINTAgg do love him some Giant Red Arrows of Doom. Dolyna is not captured though, and Bohorodychne remains fiercely contested. Map is shown for context (terrain)

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Suleyman said:

Forget 90-100K casualties if Russia lost 40-50K that would be enough to completely stop them forming any meaningful offensive. It’s true they don’t have a lot of manpower in the war imagine what 100K losses would do to them. It would be a Ukrainian total victory one sided. Both sides most definitely over state the casualties they inflict, but it’s done in every war so not something new

Hence why you don't see russians pulling any offensives anymore but just spamming a single city and trying to hold everything else. Russia is also doing a covert mobilization for the past 3 months, which allowed them to replace 40k-50k of the losses.

Also life has almost zero value in Russia so casualties do not affect their morale, even if it's a low morale, as much as they would in a western army - so they can just throw meat into the grinder and meat will happily comply.

Edited June 15, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 Nova Kakhovka viaduct.... 

 

 

 

 

Was the dam hit, or is he just talking about that big ammo dump the Ukr blew up yesterday in this general area?

 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

No, you strongly underestimate how much the western industry not only depends on China as a market but also as global workbench. The Russian sanctions already hurt us. But that is mostly fossil fuels and food. And is (technically) relatively easy to import those from somewhere else. Apart from that ours and the Russian industry isn't very interdependent. China? Most of our electronics products are manufactured in China, hell, most of everything is manufactured there. Sanctions would be mutually assured destruction, so nothing will happen.

For the past two decades or so, this has been changing, especially with relation to the US. China mostly makes low-level electronics for Western consumption, and as their population has been ageing and the labour costs have been going up, companies have been moving out to other places that are cheaper and/or more convenient (SE Asia, Mexico). Only companies like Apple have stubbornly remained in China, but even they are starting to see the writing on the wall.  Especially with the zero-Covid lockdowns.

If you tell companies "no, you can no longer do business with China, you can no longer do tech transfers, or invest in Chinese businesses," in the West the cost of stuff will go up and you suffer some inconveniences, but for them, it will be fatal, economically.

Quote

I mean, how much worse can it really get than concentration camps for a whole ethnic group? And still no real reaction from the west.

We had countries like Syria gas their own people with chemical weapons with no real reaction from the West either. Bluntly put, as long as China doesn't actually launch an invasion or war against its neighbours and engages in purely internal affairs, the West + Japan/Korea will not act. But the moment they actually invade Taiwan or send actual military forces to Ukraine, it will be a very different story.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Beleg85]

Talking about lossess, Milley admitted today 20 to 30% of RU mechanized force is destoyed (deployed force, one may presume).

And Oryx count hit is at 4350+ units of everything.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Fenris]

Wonder if this is accurate

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

30 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

For the past two decades or so, this has been changing, especially with relation to the US. China mostly makes low-level electronics for Western consumption.

It's not so much the finished products as it is the raw materials.

_____

WASHINGTON — The United States has relied almost entirely on China — and to a lesser extent Russia — in recent years to procure a critical mineral that is vital to producing ammunition.

The mineral antimony is critical to the defense-industrial supply chain and is needed to produce everything from armor-piercing bullets and explosives to nuclear weapons as well as sundry other military equipment, such as night vision goggles.

“There is no domestic mine for antimony,” according to a 2020 report from the U.S. Geological Survey, a government agency. “China is the largest producer of mined and refined antimony and a major source of imports for the United States.”

_____

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/06/08/the-us-is-heavily-reliant-on-china-and-russia-for-its-ammo-supply-chain-congress-wants-to-fix-that/

[Fenris]

Another interesting tweet

 

[Calamine Waffles]

  

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It's not so much the finished products as it is the raw materials.

_____

WASHINGTON — The United States has relied almost entirely on China — and to a lesser extent Russia — in recent years to procure a critical mineral that is vital to producing ammunition.

The mineral antimony is critical to the defense-industrial supply chain and is needed to produce everything from armor-piercing bullets and explosives to nuclear weapons as well as sundry other military equipment, such as night vision goggles.

“There is no domestic mine for antimony,” according to a 2020 report from the U.S. Geological Survey, a government agency. “China is the largest producer of mined and refined antimony and a major source of imports for the United States.”

_____

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/06/08/the-us-is-heavily-reliant-on-china-and-russia-for-its-ammo-supply-chain-congress-wants-to-fix-that/

Well, that's part of the globalised system the US established during the Cold War. But if they cut off US rare minerals imports and the US retaliates by cutting off oil and food imports to China, the latter are an existential problem for China. China *has* to import basic needs like those, the US is pretty much self-sufficient, and it is not yet at the level where the PLAN can establish maritime supremacy over the US Navy. The Chinese cutting off rare mineral imports is a major inconvenience for the US, yes, but not fatal.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[chuckdyke]

The more senior staff they lose the more it seems to me their competency starts to show some improvement. Like Hitler once he took over it went downhill for the Wehrmacht. 

Putin loses 53rd colonel in Ukraine war as Russia’s toll of commanders grows (msn.com)

[Huba]

Here's what Reznikov has to say about weapons pledged by the donors. Quite  a bit more than what US declared. In case of PL more artillery probably means Krabs from our active units, I doubt more Soviet type artillery will be donated given lack of ammo. Alternatively, PL might want to battle-test some Rak 120mm mortars  mounted on Rosomak/AMV. 

 

[The_Capt]

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

f you tell companies "no, you can no longer do business with China, you can no longer do tech transfers, or invest in Chinese businesses," in the West the cost of stuff will go up and you suffer some inconveniences, but for them, it will be fatal, economically

Economics is not my area but I am not sure this is something we would undertake lightly:

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

In Canada they are our #3 trading partner:

https://angusreid.org/canada-china-trade-economy-2022/

Those are really big numbers being tossed around.  For comparison US - Russia trade is about 5% of what is does with China:

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia/russia

Russia trade with Canada barely breaks the 1B$ mark.

https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/TradeAndInvestment/2017593E
 

So What?  Going to be exceedingly hard to get unity on China sanctions unless they do something egregious and selling limited weapons to Russia (which is perfectly legal by the way, particularly as China has not joined the sanctions block) is likely not going to do it.

 

[Billy Ringo]

After 100+ days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has not supplied war materials or weapons of any significance to Russia.  And, Chinese businesses, banks and investment firms have pulled significant resources and funding away from Russia.

China could do a lot of things.  But so far they haven't and their actions indicate they are not going to align themselves with Russia.   Actions speak louder than Russian words.

With regards to weapons, the Chinese have seen how poorly Russian arms and equipment performed in battle.  They may have decided it's better to keep their toys to themselves for the time being.

Peace.

 

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

With regards to weapons, the Chinese have seen how poorly Russian arms and equipment performed in battle.  They may have decided it's better to keep their toys to themselves for the time being.

Or decided Putin is not losing enough and they will wait till cost of their help will raise.

 

25 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Another interesting tweet

Perhaps first Tank Aces of this war...

Edited June 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

17 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

After 100+ days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has not supplied war materials or weapons of any significance to Russia.  And, Chinese businesses, banks and investment firms have pulled significant resources and funding away from Russia.

China could do a lot of things.  But so far they haven't and their actions indicate they are not going to align themselves with Russia.   Actions speak louder than Russian words.

With regards to weapons, the Chinese have seen how poorly Russian arms and equipment performed in battle.  They may have decided it's better to keep their toys to themselves for the time being.

Peace.

 

Thank you for your input, yeah I agree so far there is no evidence that China is offering Putin material support for his war in Ukraine. That is why that tweet that I shared that started this whole discussion seemed suspicious.

[sburke]

55 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Wonder if this is accurate

 

I'll wait till we see confirmation somewhere else

[Machor]

16 hours ago, Grigb said:

Kostroma is interesting because it is somewhat different from Buryatia or Jewish Oblast or Dagestan. It is a deep province, but it is not as "bad" as these three. Furthermore it is hometown of 331st VDV Regiment.

One can only hope that these images have found their way to screens in Kostroma and are resulting in questions being asked [There were even more shocking videos posted by 666_mancer, but the tweets have now been deleted.]:

Disturbing content!

 

[Machor]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.  Kornet team.

Continuing with our dissolution of the Russian Federation topic, these guys are not - contrary to what the tweet says - 'Russian' soldiers; though it's interspersed with Russian, they're speaking a Turkic language.

[Machor]

This one's for @Kinophile 

 

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Another interesting tweet

 

Might be the 93rd Mechanized Brigade by Kharkiv. They field Russian T-80BVMs.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Artkin

[Kinophile]

47 minutes ago, Machor said:

This one's for @Kinophile 

 

Go get em, boys.