How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

If someone was wondering why the gas was cut from Bulgaria as well:

 

[sburke]

China Bans Most Russian Planes From Airspace Because They're Stolen (msn.com)

along with toilets, washing machines...  Russia is like a stash house in the Sopranos.

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

China Bans Most Russian Planes From Airspace Because They're Stolen (msn.com)

along with toilets, washing machines...  Russia is like a stash house in the Sopranos.

 

I can't wait to see the building starting to crumble. 

[Harmon Rabb]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

China Bans Most Russian Planes From Airspace Because They're Stolen (msn.com)

along with toilets, washing machines...  Russia is like a stash house in the Sopranos.

 

 

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

I can't wait to see the building starting to crumble. 

 

[sburke]

Russian Colonel Killed in Ukraine as Putin Scrambles to Reorganize Forces (msn.com)

New to our list and an interesting note on further purges.

 

Lieutenant Colonel Zaur Dimayev, the deputy commander of the 4th battalion of the Akhmat Kadyrov special forces regiment, was killed in the Donbas region of Ukraine—where the center of the fighting has moved to—by an artillery barrage on Tuesday, according to the Baza Telegram channel.

 

According to a report from Moscow-based RBK Group, Putin issued a decree on Monday announcing the firing of five generals at the Russian Ministry of the Internal Affairs and one police colonel.

 

 

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I've posted a few of these too, so not judging at all, but the intimate horror of watching human beings die on camera in these videos is something I hope I never become indifferent to, still less regard as entertainment. And I say that as a hunter.

Since I remember, for sure before this war started, I had a rule not to watch videos where people explicitly die or are hurt, and have in general abide by this, as it is just too disturbing for me and serves no point. I'd by default react with revulsion to stuff like this.Yet this one somehow just slipped through the filter - and this is really what exposure to violence, even through very indirect means like videos does to a person, desensitization kick in without you even noticing it. I don't know how to feel about it really, for sure it's disturbing

[G.I. Joe]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

China Bans Most Russian Planes From Airspace Because They're Stolen (msn.com)

along with toilets, washing machines...  Russia is like a stash house in the Sopranos.

 

+1 (out of reactions)

Good article, thanks for the link. It also raises a very important point that besides the legality of the aircraft being stolen, there are huge safety implications to aircraft being flown with no support from their manufacturers and no mechanism (at least not one that complies with ICAO regulations) for ensuring compliance with Airworthiness Directives. If fact, a lot of ADs might not be possible to carry out without manufacturer support.

[Harmon Rabb]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Since I remember, for sure before this war started, I had a rule not to watch videos where people explicitly die or are hurt, and have in general abide by this, as it is just too disturbing for me and serves no point. I'd by default react with revulsion to stuff like this.Yet this one somehow just slipped through the filter - and this is really what exposure to violence, even through very indirect means like videos does to a person, desensitization kick in without you even noticing it. I don't know how to feel about it really, for sure it's disturbing

I know what you mean. While watching and analyzing the large amount of video footage that we are getting is fascinating I do still remember that we are watching real people die in a lot of these videos.

Following this war is starting to emotionally burn some people out. 

Artur Rehi, who has been examining videos of this war since the very beginning said he is taking a break because these videos are starting to take an emotional toll on him.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

It looks like the renewable energy off-topic posting has faded away, finally.  Let's keep it that way, eh?

Steve

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I know what you mean. While watching and analyzing the large amount of video footage that we are getting is fascinating I do still remember that we are watching real people die in a lot of these videos.

Following this war is starting to emotionally burn some people out. 

Artur Rehi, who has been examining videos of this war since the very beginning said he is taking a break because these videos are starting to take an emotional toll on him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never even watched this one, watching UA soldiers die automatically hit the alarm button for me. This somehow is not happening anymore for videos with dead Russians. Go figure...

[Artkin]

.

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Artkin

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

Since I remember, for sure before this war started, I had a rule not to watch videos where people explicitly die or are hurt, and have in general abide by this, as it is just too disturbing for me and serves no point. I'd by default react with revulsion to stuff like this.Yet this one somehow just slipped through the filter - and this is really what exposure to violence, even through very indirect means like videos does to a person, desensitization kick in without you even noticing it. I don't know how to feel about it really, for sure it's disturbing

This is something that each person needs to decide and I am not taking sides.  To see the horrors of war can be desensitizing.  To not see the horrors of war can also be desensitizing because it makes war abstract when it actually is about ripping human bodies apart.  Easy to talk about glory and courage and duty until one sees someone w a face wound. 

[Battlefront.com]

My take on the overt death videos and pictures...

I solidly avoid looking at any images of dead bodies that are obviously in the "trophy" category.  I know what dismembered and burnt up bodies look like (thankfully not in person), and seeing more doesn't do anything to further my understanding of the world we inhabit.

Images of people being injured/killed in a way that is relevant to understanding combat is, for me, kinda part of my job.  I have to watch some amount of this sort of thing to ensure Combat Mission is going in the right direction.  However, I really don't need to see more than a few specific incidences to get what I need.

Some recent examples of various videos I've found useful to watch:

1.  Homemade drone bomber videos give a pretty good sense of conditions in which they are useful.  The video of a bomb going right through the sunroof of a moving Z car was so valuable to me that I saved a copy of it to my harddrive.

2.  Clustered soldiers being near some form of HE explosion gives me a sense of how effective/ineffective is.  There have been more than a few where I expected when the dust cleared there'd  be nobody left standing, and yet it seemed most remained mobile.

3.  Panicking soldiers leaving people behind or not as the case may be is useful for contemplating TacAI modeling.

4.  Seeing what happens to tank crews from various types of hits.  The most recent being the one from the last 24 hours of the crew member standing on the back deck and seemingly uninjured when a AT rocket slammed into the lower hull.

5.  Images of destroyed vehicles that show how they got hit or how they "disassemble" is obviously of interest and, thankfully.

All valuable stuff.  Still not easy to look at even when it's Russians, but kept in context I feel it's necessary.  As long as that's what we're seeing

Steve

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This is something that each person needs to decide and I am not taking sides.  To see the horrors of war can be desensitizing.  To not see the horrors of war can also be desensitizing because it makes war abstract when it actually is about ripping human bodies apart.  Easy to talk about glory and courage and duty until one sees someone w a face wound. 

Yeah, but it is one thing to acknowledge and bear witness to the horrors and suffering that war brings, and other to treat this kind of materials as entertainment.

Or, as I think is happening to me in this case, as a way to quench the growing hate for one of the sides. Damn, Russia really suffers unrecoverable PR losses, up to this point people around here were sometimes a bit suspicious of Russia and that's it, but now we openly wish them harm, and we are not even fighting. As I can easily imagine a political end to this conflict, changing general attitude towards Russia will be possible maybe in next generation.

[danfrodo]

Something occurred to me today: I wonder how much of Putin's planning was influenced by looking at what non-Russian experts were saying about Ukraine's ability to resist.  Not to malign those experts, as most thought UKR would fold up quickly.  But looking at Putin's plan and the risk, he might have gotten some nice confirmation bias from western sources which helped him to feel OK about his risk. 

[womble]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

+1 (out of reactions)

Good article, thanks for the link. It also raises a very important point that besides the legality of the aircraft being stolen, there are huge safety implications to aircraft being flown with no support from their manufacturers and no mechanism (at least not one that complies with ICAO regulations) for ensuring compliance with Airworthiness Directives. If fact, a lot of ADs might not be possible to carry out without manufacturer support.

They are also flying without any worthwhile insurance. No reputable insurance company would touch misappropriated airframes with your barge pole. I'm sure the Russian Government has given assurances that they will cover things, but how much credence can anyone give that sort of promise?

[Raptor341]

On the slightly off-topic of war videos and entertainment; As I have spent quite a few hours of my life providing ISR and real-time targeting I can say personally that you get used to it pretty quick. I distinctly remember watching my first strike (against ISIS in Iraq, 2015) and being filled with excitement - - finally getting to strike back at these people who were tearing open any form of civilized society and attempting to push the area back into the dark ages. I recall that it really didn't look any different than a video game, which because you are watching it through a monitor, really does make sense. Then I saw my first mass civil casualty event... I really didn't care about watching them get smacked after that. Still don't.

Personally, watching the Russians get hit brings up much the same feelings. It's not a joke, it is real, but so is the war. You want Ukraine to win it? Then they need to kill invaders, and kill them in large numbers. This is the reality of it. Nothing more, nothing less. I'd do it myself if I could, and I don't mean that lightly. Death comes to us all, and killing in war is just that, delivering death for a specific reason or desired outcome. Where I will say that I have ABSOLUTELY no time for is torture and unnecessary violence. If you are going to kill anything you kill it as cleanly and as efficiently as possible - people who enjoy torture or employ it are beyond me (death will happen in war, if you are going to kill someone do it, but to cause pain unnecessarily for your own pleasure is twisted).

All this being said, I find it difficult to watch videos of Ukrainians getting hit because I want them to survive and WIN - yet it also serves as a reminder that the cost is real - not that the cost isn't worth the fight (as much as I can say that without being there myself), but it is real. 

(I am also the kind of wargamer that feels bad when he losses pixel troops unnecessarily, they are my responsibility to use wisely)

[Huba]

Back to the war, US will now officially supply Ukraine with HIMARS, as was announced by Blinken a moment ago. Germany declared to follow suit (hopefully) and so did UK. UA will field a mix of M142 and M270 it seems. I wonder if the latter will be using regular M26 variants too, for sure there isn't a shortage of suitable targets.

There's also some interesting news regarding tube artillery - it turns out, yesterday Poland signed a contract with Ukraine for 54 ( three battalions complete with CB radars) Krab SPGs, worth $700M, on top of already transferred 18 guns. At this point it is not clear if this is for new builds, or for ones from our active forces ( we had a total of 80). UA artilllery is really becoming a force to reckon with.

Also, UA is apparently pushing south from Krivy Rih, continuing it's counteroffensive in Kherson region:

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Huba

[BlackMoria]

Quote - (I am also the kind of wargamer that feels bad when he losses pixel troops unnecessarily, they are my responsibility to use wisely).

Amen, brother.

When I play any of the CM games, I am really anal about keeping my casualties as low as possible.  To the point of obsession.  I play real time and I micro manage my forces to a point that most people would wonder if I am actually having fun ( I am).

Screen shot of my best accomplishment.  The point of pride is not in the kill count on the right.  For me, the satisfaction is the left hand column.  That is all that matters to me.

[danfrodo]

BlackMoria, that is the most amazing AAR screen I have ever seen in my life.  Wow.  Tells me I can do better.

[Huba]

I guess UA will need those 4 Germany MLRS too, badly O_o

 

[akd]

My guess is 4 batteries, although possibly they could start with a very small number purely for training.

[fireship4]

On 5/29/2022 at 3:05 PM, Harmon Rabb said:

The Japanese company making miniature Russian soldiers can make some miniature tanks based on this image. 

 

Just to correct this from Sunday, the artist, Tomas Upskas, is from Lithuania and the scene they are from ("Brothers in Arms", seen below) is or will be going to auction with the proceeds going to help the Ukrainian army, according to this article: https://designyoutrust.com/2022/05/lithuanian-artist-created-a-collectible-series-of-miniature-figurines-of-russian-war-looters/

Edited June 1, 2022 by fireship4

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

My guess is 4 batteries, although possibly they could start with a very small number purely for training.

Nope, he explicitly mean 4 vehicles. Same number was pledged by Germany ( MARS II/ M270) vehicles, and an undisclosed number from the UK. Still can have an impact I guess, if enough ammo is provided, and will be shooting round the clock, but to really make difference a lot more is needed. I imagine they want to make sure Ukrainians are adult about the deal and don't bombard Belgorod straight away, and then more will follow.

Edit:

Here's a nice thread summarizing the whole press briefing:

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Huba

[Harmon Rabb]

Classic whirlybird music.

 

Ukraine may get M270s from the United Kingdom.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Harmon Rabb