How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In nearest 1-2 weeks we will see culmination of Russian offensive. Their pressure now is unprecedent. Lyman and Avdiivka today were shelled severly during several hours almost with all calibers and systems. Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut also under fire. Russian use own usual "burned earth" tactic. 

Russian penetrating around Popasna stabilized by elements of 80th air-assault brigade, but heavy clashes are ongoing. Villages Viktorivka, Oleksandropillia, western part of Komyshuvakha still a grey zone and arena of clashes. Russians are digging in Volodymyrivka and in 1,5..2 km south from Vasylivka - Lypove villages. Locals wrote in twitters - the endless stream of Russian armor and concentration of troops in Alchevsk, Kadiivka, Pervomaisk town. Reportedly at least 18 BTGs now on Popasna - Bakhmut axis

Russian commander of "Popasma group", mayor general Avdeev is relatively young general and he uses more flexible tactic, than direct assaults after artillery fire. He use HUGE amount of artillery and aviation support to supress resistsanse but instead direct assaults he uses outflanking and infiltrations of relativelly big number of small combat groups (1-2 reinforces platoons), consisting of mix of 76th VDV division  and PMC units. Our soldiers point that PMC have many experienced troopers, which passed many wars - they are dangerous enemy, which never surrender and never take prisoners. This actions and lack of troops on Popasna-Bakhmut axis (as well as retreating of some TD units) forced our command to pull our right flank. 

Today UKR troops on Svitlodarsk bulge destroyed the bridge through reservoir of Luhan' river and abandoned Myronivskyi settlement. Looks like we will retreat soon also from Svitlodarsk beyond the river and all efforts will be concentrate on defense of Bakhmut area. 

Destroyed bridge near Myronivskyi

Russian occupants (PMC?) in Myronivskyi

And hypothetical solution...

Well bleep, the Russians have not only found a general who can read, but one who reads the right books. This is exactly the tactics the Germans used in their last big offensive in 1918, and it almost worked. Hopefully this works out the same way, that the better tactics have arrived to late save an army that is fundamentally used up. The SigInt people need to find this guy and drop something on his headquarters that leaves the kind of crater they can see from space.

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Graphic language, but I think we are all old enough to handle it.  "Campfire" rant by a Wagner soldier that they are really waging a race war to preserve a dominant white Russia.  Why he thinks waging a war against a largely white nation using Asiatic forces is going to help the cause any... well... racist nationalists don't tend to be very deep thinkers

 

wait, Ukrainians aren't white anymore?  Gosh, I can't keep up.   First I find out the Irish, Italians, and Poles are now 'white', at least in the US, when they certainly weren't when they came to the US.  And now the Ukrainians aren't white anymore?  Does this White Club have any rules at all?  It's almost as if they are just making it up on the fly -- but that would be ridiculous, right?   I mean, if one's whole world view revolves around this I would expect their would be some scientifically solid basis, right?  I mean, who would just do this based on nothing?  That would be really stupid.

[akd]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Yes indeed. I thought, almost everything was sanctioned but there is still significant trade still going on, even with their rival enemies US.  

Obviously US isn’t importing Russian (or Ukrainian) wheat, regardless.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am curious why Ukraine seems to be unable or unwilling to commit new units into the fight in Donbas.  Shifting forces around and using TD forces beyond their capabilities is not enough.

Russia has gone over on the defensive in Kherson, so that allowed (apparently) two battalions of the 80th Air Assault Brigade to be deployed to Kharkiv and Popasna bulge.  But that's a piecemeal approach to what is definitely an operational level threat.  The situation there calls for a more substantial counter attack or, at a minimum, more forces to bottle the Russians up like in Izyum.

As for Severodonetsk, it's amazing they've held out for as long as they have and losing it isn't of strategic importance, especially because defensive lines improve by withdrawing over the river.  Evacuating the forces there before they can't reasonably retreat seems to be prudent at this point if there's no cavalry riding to the rescue.

The big question still is... how much force does Russia have to invest into the Popasna bulge?  One source said they are assembling 18 BTGs for the push, but that's a load of horsecrap.  Russia doesn't have even 8 to put into that fight, not to mention 10.  And I'm talking 8 very depleted and beat up BTGs, not even full strength ones.

The overall situation is not great, but Russia has a knack of taking something "not great" for Ukraine and transforming it into "disaster" for Russia.  I have faith that Ukraine can still turn this around, but they'd better get a move on it soon or it a counter attack won't be relevant.

Steve

That's what I've been wondering also.  Is Ukraine just weak?  Or are they holding back for something bigger while trading small amounts of land for attrition of RU forces?

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am curious why Ukraine seems to be unable or unwilling to commit new units into the fight in Donbas.  Shifting forces around and using TD forces beyond their capabilities is not enough.

Russia has gone over on the defensive in Kherson, so that allowed (apparently) two battalions of the 80th Air Assault Brigade to be deployed to Kharkiv and Popasna bulge.  But that's a piecemeal approach to what is definitely an operational level threat.  The situation there calls for a more substantial counter attack or, at a minimum, more forces to bottle the Russians up like in Izyum.

As for Severodonetsk, it's amazing they've held out for as long as they have and losing it isn't of strategic importance, especially because defensive lines improve by withdrawing over the river.  Evacuating the forces there before they can't reasonably retreat seems to be prudent at this point if there's no cavalry riding to the rescue.

The big question still is... how much force does Russia have to invest into the Popasna bulge?  One source said they are assembling 18 BTGs for the push, but that's a load of horsecrap.  Russia doesn't have even 8 to put into that fight, not to mention 10.  And I'm talking 8 very depleted and beat up BTGs, not even full strength ones.

The overall situation is not great, but Russia has a knack of taking something "not great" for Ukraine and transforming it into "disaster" for Russia.  I have faith that Ukraine can still turn this around, but they'd better get a move on it soon or it a counter attack won't be relevant.

Steve

There are two basic possibilities here, one of them is that the Ukrainians are just running out of effective formations, and this is about to get much less pleasant. The other is the Ukrainian General staff has a plan. They have done too well for too long for any of us to accuse them of not being able to read a map, and they have certainly retreated before when they need too. So sadly this is going to be another very stressful week while we wait to see which one it is. At least the Russians threw away several BTGs on those river crossings that would have really mattered if they were available to reinforce their successes in Popsana. The U.S. need to get those HIMARS systems in there YESTERDAY to help knock back the Russian artillery. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

That's what I've been wondering also.  Is Ukraine just weak?  Or are they holding back for something bigger while trading small amounts of land for attrition of RU forces?

We know three things for sure:

1. Ukraine has a LOT of men in units that are not deployed yet
2. they are unwilling to throw untrained men into the frontline
3. senior levels of Ukraine's government and military have hinted/stated that they're preparing for a summer counter offensive

In total, Ukraine is doing the opposite of what Russia is.  Russia is grabbing whatever it can as quickly as possible and throwing it into the battle without any regard to losses or longer term interests.

I think we might have hit the point of Darwinian force morale on the Russian side.  That is to say that combat operations have largely sorted out who is willing to fight and who isn't.  The ones not willing to fight have either taken themselves out of the war (surrender, cancelled contract, refused orders, etc.) or have were killed before they did.  The Russian forces that remain are also what CM would describe as somewhere between "Regular" and "Veteran" in terms of Experience, compared to the "Conscript" and "Green" status at the start.

This is to say that the Russian forces are now fewer in number, but proportionally better in quality than where they started.

Note that LPR and DPR forces are not in the same boat thanks to Russia's cannon fodder mentality towards them.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We know three things for sure:

1. Ukraine has a LOT of men in units that are not deployed yet
2. they are unwilling to throw untrained men into the frontline
3. senior levels of Ukraine's government and military have hinted/stated that they're preparing for a summer counter offensive

To simplify, everyone agrees that relatively Russia is getting weaker and Ukraine is getting stronger when time passes.

Ukraine waits until maximum discrepancy in power and then commenced major operations.

[Sequoia]

32 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

wait, Ukrainians aren't white anymore?  Gosh, I can't keep up.   First I find out the Irish, Italians, and Poles are now 'white', at least in the US, when they certainly weren't when they came to the US.  And now the Ukrainians aren't white anymore?  Does this White Club have any rules at all?  It's almost as if they are just making it up on the fly -- but that would be ridiculous, right?   I mean, if one's whole world view revolves around this I would expect their would be some scientifically solid basis, right?  I mean, who would just do this based on nothing?  That would be really stupid.

The first rule of White Club is don't talk about White Club.

[Homo_Ferricus]

I just love how they decided to translate "Bly*t" into "B*tch" instead of the more context-appropriate, "f**k." Makes the transcript read like a methed-out rant by Jesse Pinkman.

[dan/california]

Finally, now just get some better AA systems in there!

[Hapless]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am curious why Ukraine seems to be unable or unwilling to commit new units into the fight in Donbas.

I'm going to go with: saving them for winter.

If the current situation maintains itself up to the Autumn muddy season then the Russians are going to have been seriously ground down. Exacerbate that once the rain hits with deep artillery/drones/SF hitting logistics, then start conducting major operations once the ground is hard enough.

This would give the Ukrainians time to prepare/train/blood their non-committed units, assimilate new weapons and equipment, maybe even do some small scale trial runs (think the Western Allies pre-Normandy). Obviously the Russians get a say too, but given the last few months maybe they wouldn't get much of one.

[Cederic]

19 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

he lacks the detailed technical/military knowledge, so generally don't rely on him for like opinions on hardware etc

Ah, my sort of person. I thought a T72 was a T72 but no, you're all on about BVs and Op16 and M2 and AV and.. I just want to play tank games :(

 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

The first rule of White Club is don't talk about White Club.

I try not to single out any one kid over the others, but you my little non-deciduous friend get a gold star

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

So what is the Ukrainian plan in Kharkiv? Having pushed the Russians beyond artillery range of the city, I don't see the point of continuing to push there. Would I be right in thinking the offensives there are mostly about pushing an already off balance RFA as far back as they can while they can. And that now that effort seems to have stalled, we will see them tidy up the lines a bit and dig in there?

I concur with previous posts on the matter, the real contest for the Ukraine seems to be the Kherson area. That's where you can change the strategic picture, I would think.

 

As for what is keeping the Ukrainians, I too think they aren't in a hurry to throw half trained troops into a tricky offensive. The smart move is building up such strength as they have and keep bleeding the Russians. While it is hard to say for certain, the Ukrainians seem to still be degrading the Russians capacity to fight more then the other way around. So yeah, why lunge at an enemy still on his feet when you can wait for them to fall on their arse and only then proceed to hand out a kicking.

[dan/california]

 

2 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

So what is the Ukrainian plan in Kharkiv? Having pushed the Russians beyond artillery range of the city, I don't see the point of continuing to push there. Would I be right in thinking the offensives there are mostly about pushing an already off balance RFA as far back as they can while they can. And that now that effort seems to have stalled, we will see them tidy up the lines a bit and dig in there?

The greatest operational potential of the Kharkiv offensive was to turn due west and cut, or at least pressure the GLOCs that feed the Russians in the Izyum salient, and to a fair extent the whole Northern Donbas. These run through Vochansk, and Kupiasnk They attempted this and achieved at least some success. There is a major river obstacle that kept them from achieving more. They may have some ability to bring longer range artillery fire on Vovchansk from their current positions. But just the risk may be part of the reason the Russians shifted their major push to the southern Donbas. Unfortunately they found a weak spot there. 

This yet another reason the need HIMARS desperately. The could hammer the Russian staging area at Kupiansk from their current positions if they had it.

[Haiduk]

Driving under fire

 

[Cederic]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The driver, who evacuates civilians from Lyman runs away from the town under shelling

 

That's a fantastic video, for very bad reasons. My brain started with 'looks like a bad movie', got distracted into 'is he obeying traffic laws? I guess nobody is going to pull him over right now', veered into 'Not sure what the artillery is even shooting at', briefly went down the 'wait, should he be driving that close to a previous strike' and then, only then, did it occur to me that this is in fact real life, he really is in mortal danger, this is what being a civilian in a warzone is like and thank **** it's not me.

[Huba]

Speaking of artillery:

 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

So what is the Ukrainian plan in Kharkiv? Having pushed the Russians beyond artillery range of the city, I don't see the point of continuing to push there. Would I be right in thinking the offensives there are mostly about pushing an already off balance RFA as far back as they can while they can. And that now that effort seems to have stalled, we will see them tidy up the lines a bit and dig in there?

After UKR troops came to the border in Ternova area, approached to the border in Starytsia area, after SOF crossed Siverskyi Donets river and took gound on the eastern bank between Zarichne and Khotimlia, Russian command at last felt the threat to Vovchansk - the border town and the gate of shortest logistic way Belgorod - Vovchansk - Kupiansk - Izium. So Russians moved there two more BTGs, artillery, MLRS and conducted counter strike with a goal to throw UKR forces back to the T2104 road Kharkiv - Staryi Saltiv. After about three days of fighting they managed to retake Starytsia and Rubizhne villages, Ternova now still contested. But Russians also havn't enough forces to push UKR troops further to south, so now we have position warfare with probes and artillery strikes. Russians also renewed shellings of Kharkiv (but in less number, than they deployed near circle road) and villages north from the city. 

Simultainously Russians started to shell border areas of Sumy oblast and even conducted attempt to attack theese areas with small forces. Obviously the goal of theese actions - to create appearance of the offensive threat and tie down our forces in this oblast in order they could be moved to Kharkiv oblast  

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

Speaking of artillery:

 

 

Kudos to France on this.  Now send more please.

[Taranis]

22 minutes ago, Huba said:

Speaking of artillery:

 

 

We can see Marioupol on the road signs and Marioupol write on a shell too. They probably are in a southern front area (Zaporizhzhia?)

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

After UKR troops came to the border in Ternova area, approached to the border in Starytsia area, after SOF crossed Siverskyi Donets river and took gound on the eastern bank between Zarichne and Khotimlia, Russian command at last felt the threat to Vovchansk - the border town and the gate of shortest logistic way Belgorod - Vovchansk - Kupiansk - Izium. So Russians moved there two more BTGs, artillery, MLRS and conducted counter strike with a goal to throw UKR forces back to the T2104 road Kharkiv - Staryi Saltiv. After about three days of fighting they managed to retake Starytsia and Rubizhne villages, Ternova now still contested. But Russians also havn't enough forces to push UKR troops ruher to south, so now we have position warfare with probes and artillery strikes. Russians also renewed shellings of Kharkiv (but in less number, than they deployed near circle road) and villages north from the city. 

Simultainously Russians started to shell border areas of Sumy oblast and even conducted attempt to attack theese areas with small forces. Obviously the goal of theese actions - to create appearance of the offensive threat and tie down our forces in this oblast in order they could be moved to Kharkiv oblast  

The detailed updates are appreciated!

[Seedorf81]

Shocking news: In England there is real commotion, public unrest even, because.. an impatient driver killed three ducklings.

No joke, that is what people are more angry about than this horrible war with hundreds dying every day!!!

Sure, I like duckies too, but sometimes I think this whole world is going crazy.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am curious why Ukraine seems to be unable or unwilling to commit new units into the fight in Donbas.  Shifting forces around and using TD forces beyond their capabilities is not enough.

The length of front plays against us. We have to keep troops on the border with Belarus and with Russian in NE part of country. Russians can allow itself to concentrate and grow own forces in one place or move them to other place or rotate. We can't. Almost all brigades on Donbas and Kharkiv oblast are fighting without rotation since 24th Feb. Decision to move some TD battalions to east in order to allow mech.battalions to rest was necessary measure. 

Zelenskyi said yesterday we already have 700 000 servicemen "under rifle", but how much of them is Ground Forces and how much of them in mech.infantry? We have a lack of light armor not only to equip Reserve Corps mech. brigades, but already and in cadre units because of losses. If we still have +/- enough number of tanks (thanks Poland, Czech republic + Russian trophies) to equip our brigades, that number of light armor for mech., motorized infantry and air-assault troops is too low and will be decrease day by day.

The second problem - artillery. Our artillery is working beyond physical and human capabilities. Even if guns are not destroyed in warfare, its barrels will be gradually exhaust, decreasing the accuracy. We havn't much artillery in stock, even old D-20. 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Uniquie filming of two UKR Mi-8 landed in besieged Mariupol in seaport area to take wounded onboard. Ther first comamnder of Azov Andiy Biletskyi told there was at least "more than five" successfull breakthrough to Mariupol. Except ammunition, 72 Azov fighters and volunteers were moved there as well as several civil medics from Dnipro hospital, which volunteered to fly to threat wouded soldiers. Mi-8 flew more than 100 km there and back on extreme low altitude, having 90 % of risk of being shot down. And in theese flights two helicopters were shot down on the way back...

The filming of paramedic Yulia Payevska "Taira", which was captured in Mariupol more tham month ago.

  

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by Haiduk