How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

24 minutes ago, sburke said:

Big question is - is there really a force in Belgorod capable of counterattacking?  I find it hard to believe if such a force existed it wouldn't have already been committed to stop the Ukrainian advance.

Agreed. If they had an effective force hanging around spare, they'd probably do better using it to defend the river in the Vovchans'k area to protect their LOC rather than losing it and then trying to counterattack - given how well Russian attacks have been going in general.

[LukeFF]

Edited May 18, 2022 by LukeFF

[Fenris]

Bridge demolition mission

Edit to add english text from UA Weapons Tracker

Quote

Ukrainian forces (NGU Rapid Response Brigade, SBU, and Army SOF) blew up the bridge between Sieverdonetsk and Rubizhne in the path of the Russian advance. [Corrected]

A large quantity of TM-62M as well as commercial explosives were used, and remotely detonated.

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Fenris

[Fenris]

3 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Some very specific claims about an attack on the HQ of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade:

Col. Yan Sukhanov, acting commander 810th Guards Separate Naval Infantry Brigade - heavily wounded (commander Col. Aleksey Sharov was killed in Mariupol on Mar. 22nd)

Lt. Col. Aleksey Teremkov, commander 542nd Separate Air-Assault Battalion - heavily wounded

Maj. Leonid Smirnoff, acting commander 382nd Separate Naval Infantry Battalion - heavily wounded

 

Additionally, this confirmed death from the 810th NIB:

Maj. Anton Morozov, air-assault company commander, 542nd Separate Air-Assault Battalion

The brigade may now be operating on the Kherson or Zaporizhzhia front.

 

That 810th Naval Infantry really has taken a beating.

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Fenris
my fingers are too fat

[Fenris]

Longer version of the M777 clip where you can see that the subsequent GRAD? strike was targeting them

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

In 2014/5 the UKR strategy seemed to be to hit the border, expand left and right to seal it and cur off rebel logistics, then turn in on the rebels. This happened, but just as they were starting to seal and turn the RUS attacked.

I'm curious about how Ukraine is shoving east from Kharkhiv, somewhat matching to the general curve of the border. I see some parallels with the 2014 idea, but more as a development of strong principal rather than a slavish copy/paste.

For sure this is what they are doing east of Kharkiv and, I am sure, it will work.

And here's the real beauty of this plan... as Ukraine pushes along the border they gain terrain that needs to be defended, yes, but it's terrain they want to defend.  Permanently.  This can be achieved by heavily armed light infantry in a static role.  Ukraine should no problem getting the forces for this.

The border becomes Ukraine's left flank.  Their right flank is merely an extension of the existing front line.  From a mobile combat standpoint they just have to ensure that advances don't go too far from established positions that aren't advancing and they're going to be fine.  Ideally the whole front east of Kharkiv moves as one and that means no elongation of the front.

Contrast this with Russia when it gains territory from a pincer move.  In this case both sides have to be defended against counter attack.  That means fairly heavy, mobile units are needed to keep them solid.  Far bigger task.

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Even if its not a true encirclement, the sense of being pinned and potentially cut off might be what starts to finally break the Ivan. Morale and discipline are two RUS's greatest weaknesses.

I hope so!  It is the sort of thing that should keep Russians in Ukraine up at night wondering about.

Steve

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Longer version of the M777 clip where you can see that the subsequent GRAD? strike was targeting them

 

We need to give the Ukrainians those new SHORAD Strykers. Bleep the security issues and everything else. If there are only four of them on a proving range somewhere, SEND THEM ALL. And the contractor's reps to operate them if need be.

edit: fixed various idiotic typos.

Edited May 19, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Or the HMMV version, if there is one

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Big question is - is there really a force in Belgorod capable of counterattacking?  I find it hard to believe if such a force existed it wouldn't have already been committed to stop the Ukrainian advance.

Yeah, definitely.  Russia hasn't planned anything ahead in this war so far, they are fighting day-to-day.  This means they did not anticipate losing all the terrain around Kharkiv at all, or at least not so rapidly.  Which means they would not have anything of significance in Belgorod area simply because they didn't think they'd need to.

The thought of Russia having any sort of significant force in both quantity and quality sitting around in Russia while they're getting their arse's handed to them in Ukraine is nonsense.  They don't have that luxury because 3 months of day-to-day thinking has robbed them of options.  They've committed pretty much everything they can commit, including units that should have remained where they were because they were either not good to start with or were needed to keep frozen conflicts from getting warm/hot.

We're entering a very interesting phase of an already very interesting war.  Russia continues to pursue it's doomed and costly offensive activities even though its LOCs for a big portion of it are under imminent threat of being cut.

So here's the thing folks... Russian forces in Kharkov Oblast are in just about the same situation Russians faced around Kyiv when the Russians realized collapse was a real possibility.  Senior leadership was realistic and decided, even if very belatedly, they needed to traded pride and captured terrain in order to avoid being overrun on a massive scale.  This time, however, there's no sign that Russian leadership is bowing to reality yet.

I think the main reason is that Russia was able to spin the Kiyv retreat as "mission accomplished" to its domestic audience.  There's no chance of that happening in this case.  Especially not after the disaster trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets. 

I know people snicker every time I mention those crossings, but it might very well turn out to be the battle that broke the back of Russia's ambitions in the Donbas.  The sum of this battle is greater than its parts, for sure.

Steve

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, definitely.  Russia hasn't planned anything ahead in this war so far, they are fighting day-to-day.  This means they did not anticipate losing all the terrain around Kharkiv at all, or at least not so rapidly.  Which means they would not have anything of significance in Belgorod area simply because they didn't think they'd need to.

The thought of Russia having any sort of significant force in both quantity and quality sitting around in Russia while they're getting their arse's handed to them in Ukraine is nonsense.  They don't have that luxury because 3 months of day-to-day thinking has robbed them of options.  They've committed pretty much everything they can commit, including units that should have remained where they were because they were either not good to start with or were needed to keep frozen conflicts from getting warm/hot.

We're entering a very interesting phase of an already very interesting war.  Russia continues to pursue it's doomed and costly offensive activities even though its LOCs for a big portion of it are under imminent threat of being cut.

So here's the thing folks... Russian forces in Kharkov Oblast are in just about the same situation Russians faced around Kyiv when the Russians realized collapse was a real possibility.  Senior leadership was realistic and decided, even if very belatedly, they needed to traded pride and captured terrain in order to avoid being overrun on a massive scale.  This time, however, there's no sign that Russian leadership is bowing to reality yet.

I think the main reason is that Russia was able to spin the Kiyv retreat as "mission accomplished" to its domestic audience.  There's no chance of that happening in this case.  Especially not after the disaster trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets. 

I know people snicker every time I mention those crossings, but it might very well turn out to be the battle that broke the back of Russia's ambitions in the Donbas.  The sum of this battle is greater than its parts, for sure.

Steve

Some reports today the are trying even harder to take Lyman, but that really strikes me as a last gasp attempt for some minimal success.

[MSBoxer]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

know people snicker every time I mention those crossings, but it might very well turn out to be the battle that broke the back of Russia's ambitions in the Donbas.  The sum of this battle is greater than its parts, for sure.

Just to be clear, I appreciate your analysis of the bridges.  I also appreciate the opportunity to point out that you continue after you said you were done with it a few hundred pages ago.  All in fun buddy.

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, Sequoia said:

@LongLeftFlank  Sorry, but if the cat tweet was an answer to my question about JasonC, it went over my head.

 

[Fenris]

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Khodaryonok singing a different tune today:

 

Poor Misha.  

BTW, Mikhail Khodaryonok wrote an article back in early Feb. He predicted that a blitzkrieg won't work, Ukrainian are determined to defend their homeland. The war with Ukraine will be a long difficulty struggle. The armed conflict with Ukraine at present does not fundamentally meet the national interests of Russia.

The article can be found here.

https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

 

 

 

[Kinophile]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

I think the main reason is that Russia was able to spin the Kiyv retreat as "mission accomplished" to its domestic audience.  There's no chance of that happening in this case.  Especially not after the disaster trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets. 

This. They could spin Kiev, but large amounts of Russian troops being trapped and surrendering in the north Donbass, after the "Real Plan" was the Donbass all along, is fundamentally not spinable. If Bilhorivka is getting through to the Russian public, an operational level defeat  in the North will crack the war wide open.

But RUS pride wont let the Army admit it. 

Interestingly, I wonder what happens to the Army when it proposes/suggests a second retreat?...

 

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

This. They could spin Kiev, but large amounts of Russian troops being trapped and surrendering in the north Donbass, after the "Real Plan" was the Donbass all along, is fundamentally not spinable. If Bilhorivka is getting through to the Russian public, an operational level defeat  in the North will crack the war wide open.

But RUS pride wont let the Army admit it. 

Interestingly, I wonder what happens to the Army when it proposes/suggests a second retreat?...

 

The army might decide it is easier to suggest a new Czar, and blame this mess on the newly departed one....

[sburke]

48 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

man that is dark...  

[sross112]

For the EU experts: Why has France been so quiet or have I just missed it? I thought that predictions were that after the election was over we would hear a lot more support for Ukraine out of them?

[dan/california]

Macron seems to be suffering from a bad case of reading his own press releases, and thinks he is angling for  Nobel Peace Prize. He is going to get the longest lame duck period in history, instead. There is another election soon, for parliament, so maybe after that. But I am not very hopeful.

 

[Suleyman]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Big question is - is there really a force in Belgorod capable of counterattacking?  I find it hard to believe if such a force existed it wouldn't have already been committed to stop the Ukrainian advance.

If there isn’t enough manpower as western analysis suggests, they’re probably not willing to commit those forces unless they can do it with a initiative or apply the forces on a weak point. Offense is a different art compared to defense, they may be just waiting for the right moment. 
 

Or they might just be on RU territory playing defense just in case the Ukrainians push through. A lot of maybes going on, time will tell.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, sross112 said:

For the EU experts: Why has France been so quiet or have I just missed it? I thought that predictions were that after the election was over we would hear a lot more support for Ukraine out of them?

 

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Macron seems to be suffering from a bad case of reading his own press releases, and thinks he is angling for  Nobel Peace Prize. He is going to get the longest lame duck period in history, instead. There is another election soon, for parliament, so maybe after that. But I am not very hopeful.

 

He did beat Le Pen, so it could be worse.

[danfrodo]

Dang it, France, get to it!  You've got lots of nice weapons & other needed aid, military & humanitarian, get going!

Or maybe they are and they are keeping it quiet?  Anyone have any knowledge on this? 

If France ever wants to be in CMBS they need to step up.

[danfrodo]

and another day passes w all of us waiting fervently for news of developments east of the S-Donetz. 

If Putin were winning there he would be trumpeting it, so I am thinking that RU is in trouble there.

[dan/california]

Does this imply the Russians are down to one functional infantry assault force? They are bouncing it around Luhansk praying to get a breakthrough before they burn them out?

[Suleyman]

If that was the case they would not be launching assaults on multiple directions around Severodonetsk and driving north from Popasnaya. They lack manpower but it isn’t that bad yet to where they only have one unit capable of offense

Edited May 19, 2022 by Suleyman