How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[fireship4]

In his most recent post (and posted on the previous page by another user), Kamil Galeev linked a video where one Mikhail Khordaryonok attends that Russian current affairs show: 'The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov', and makes a speech, interrupted every so often by the co-host and wife of the host Olga Skabeeva, who I demand from now on be referred to as 'Revanchist Rita' in reference to 'Bitchin' Betty', or 'Rita Repulsova' in reference to the Power Rangers.

In the thread Galeev notes that Kodaryonok wrote a report entitled 'The Forecasts of Bloodthirsty Pundits', on February 3rd which he considered very prescient, and called for it's translation.  That translation has been provided by one Dmitry Grozoubinksi:

https://nitter.net/DmitryOpines/status/1526477859799408640#m

Edited May 17, 2022 by fireship4

[CAZmaj]

Thales France:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CcvBbazDXc2/

[Huba]

Boom!

 

[TheVulture]

Debunking the idea that the US is running dangerously low on missiles due to supplying Ukraine:

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I just don't buy the 'collapse' theory. The Russian army must be beaten, on defence, to collapse it. Or they will keep fighting, with whatever they have.

I don't think anybody is suggesting that the Russian Army will just collapse spontaneously without Ukrainian offensive pressure.  But that offensive pressure does not necessarily have to be large scale counter attacks, though it would certainly speed things up.

Picture Putin trying to impose a "frozen conflict" where the Ukrainians don't agree to a cease fire (this is the most likely scenario).  Let's say that Ukraine scores a modest 100 Russian casualties a day through artillery, drones, and small scale ground actions.  Every month that's roughly 3000 KIA/WIA/MIA and 36,000 casualties for a year.  Russia has not resolved a single one of its many frozen conflicts.  DECADES have gone by for some of them.

Don't like my 100 number?  Then halve it to 50 and you still get 18,000 casualties a year.  Don't like like 50, then halve it again to 25 and you're still at 9,000 casualties a year times however many years the frozen conflict goes on.

If the Russian political leadership can't figure out a way to get the Ukrainians stop shooting at their frontline soldiers, collapse will come even if it's just low intensity warfare.  There's just no way, none, that the military can sustain these sorts of losses without something happening.

Steve

[sburke]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

Make no mistake, Sobchak is just as evil and fascist as her godfather. Recently she made an hour long propaganda video blaming NATO (and US in particular) for the war and claiming that poor putin simply was forced to defend himself.

It's just that she managed to jump off the sinking ship in time and now spreads anti-ukrainian and anti-western propaganda from Israel, a luxury even putin's oligarchs don't have, as they are forced to stay home.

And that's what made godpa upset.

oh I don't doubt it, just thought Putin fuming at his goddaughter was just too funny.  

Hey did you hear about the fund for Russian trolls?  Seems they are all homeless because Ukraine keeps blowing up their bridges. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Holien said:

Yep an unintended consequence of the war, people getting to see how other countries behave and operate by staying there. My whole world view was changed after a year as an exchange student in America with folk from all over the world. That one year was the most influential on my education than any amount of time spent in a classroom.

I had a similar experience when I lived in London for 5 months and then traveled Europe for another 2.  Even got to see a bit of Communism before it collapsed.

Steve

[Suleyman]

If they keep losing manpower and armored vehicles at the rate they are and make minor gains the Russian army definitely will have to withdraw.

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Holien said:

Yep the mood music is shifting here in the UK with dire economic forecasts and costs going to hit worst the poorest with a predicted loss of 20% disposable income.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61469532

Already I have heard mention by folk on the street in the UK that we should not be spending so much money in Ukraine and we should be helping the cost of living crisis at home.

The war in Ukraine is being blamed for these problems and while their is still popular support once people have to choose heating or food the support will slip away and political posturing move to focus on the economic crisis heading our way. Many families don't have a 20% margin to absorb the price rises coming down the tracks.

Ukraine has to win soon and can't afford to wait until winter so let's hope Russian forces do just collapse with a few well aimed kicks with the fresh reserves and weapons systems being brought to bear. I am hoping that August is possible. 

The more extreme part of the right wing in US politics has been complaining about spending as well, but then again they started the war pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine to start with so that's not really a shift in position.

The right is blaming everything bad in the economy on the war and/or the Democrats, which is normal as is the over simplification and obvious omission of critical facts.  Extremes of politics, left or right, don't really like complexity as it gets in the way of focused anger at the other side.

The US, UK, and the rest of the world are all experiencing economic problems right now for reasons that predate the Russian invasion.  The problems even predated COVID.  It's just that COVID and the Russo-Ukraine War have exposed some of those problems sooner than they would have otherwise.  The world's economy is based on unsustainable economic concepts that are compounded by extremely poorly execution (private and public sectors).  The Russia-Ukraine War could end this afternoon and all these problems will continue getting worse. 

I don't expect the unsophisticated "blame game" mentality to understand this, so I agree that if the war drags on there will be some degree of pressure within some countries, and the West generally, to scale back support for Ukraine in some way.  However, I don't think it will make any difference to the outcome because I don't see Russia's economy coming back online even with some sanctions relief and continued fossil fuel payments.  More importantly, Ukraine doesn't need much to keep resisting and causing Russian casualties.  The critical phase of support for Ukraine has already been successfully completed, so a major scaling back of support in a year's time won't likely matter.

Steve

[billbindc]

 

#JucheMir

[akd]

On 5/14/2022 at 2:58 PM, Haiduk said:

Captain of 3rd rank (mayor equivalent) Roman Pasynkov, chief of troops service department of Black Sea HQ. Data of death is unknown, probably Zmiinyi island garrison

Apparently he served with the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade:

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

#JucheMir

So let me get this straight... Putin's response to Finland and Sweden's application to NATO is for Russia to become more isolated and have less influence in the Baltic region?  I don't see the logic in that, but hey... whatever float's Putin's boat (I don't mean the $750m yacht, as that's impounded).

Steve

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So let me get this straight... Putin's response to Finland and Sweden's application to NATO is for Russia to become more isolated and have less influence in the Baltic region?  I don't see the logic in that, but hey... whatever float's Putin's boat (I don't mean the $750m yacht, as that's impounded).

Steve

A friend tells me that the joke in Moscow is that Putin's policy is "To get back at the West, we will bomb Voronezh".

And it gets better: 

 

As a wise man once said: 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by billbindc

[sross112]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A friend tells me that the joke in Moscow is that Putin's policy is "To get back at the West, we will bomb Voronezh".

And it gets better: 

 

As a wise man once said: 

 

 

I'm struggling to understand the "why" behind these proposals, so hopefully someone way more versed on the ins and outs of this can enlighten me. Is it an economic cost saving measure? Where they have to pay to play to be part of them but with all the sanctions they aren't seeing any benefits so they cut their losses? Does it somehow free them up from rules or regulations that impede their trade and by getting out they can somehow circumvent the situation? Or is it an emotional response of walking away and hoping to be begged back? 

Any insight is greatly appreciated.

Edited May 17, 2022 by sross112

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm struggling to understand the "why" behind these proposals, so hopefully someone way more versed on the ins and outs of this can enlighten me. Is it an economic cost saving measure? Where they have to pay to play to be part of them but with all the sanctions they aren't seeing any benefits so they cut their losses? Does it somehow free them up from rules or regulations that impede their trade and by getting out they can somehow circumvent the situation? Or is it an emotional response of walking away and hoping to be begged back? 

Any insight is greatly appreciated.

Putin has put Russia and his regime in an incredibly difficult spot. In essence, it has become clear to the decision makers and anyone who is in the know even tangentially that they cannot win at the current trajectory and no amount of escalation is likely to change that. But...and this is the biggie...Russia also can't lose without putting the entire power structure at risk. Official Russia is losing, knows it can't win, that it has no friends and that they are more than likely to be cannibalized economically for the foreseeable future. It's quite a big fall from what they thought they were getting into. The flailing about for something, anything to do in reaction is simply the external symptoms of that realization. Call it the "denial phase" and you won't be far off. 

[Vacillator]

10 hours ago, Holien said:

I have heard mention by folk on the street in the UK that we should not be spending so much money in Ukraine and we should be helping the cost of living crisis at home

Where I am in the UK I have not heard folk on the street mentioning this, but to be honest I don't tend to hang around listening .

What I have seen is an increase in numbers of blue and yellow flags outside houses.  Of course what happens in one area may not represent wider regions.

[Haiduk]

On 5/16/2022 at 7:12 PM, dan/california said:

Is there going to be ANYONE left in the DPR by the time this is over?

Their losses are terrible and in LDPR social media so far is growing a fury about this "Donbas men extermination". Their losses nobody counts officially. Only now LDPR authorities claims that "all our heroical reservists units" will be gradually withdraw from combat zone to get proper training and to be included to "LDPR People's militia service" officially 

This is the same, what Red Army did during WWII on liberated territories since 1943, where "field enlistment offices" grabbed all men 17-60 and reinforced with them regular units. Sometime these "black jackets", as they were called, because they went to the combat in own civil closes, could be more than 50 % of unit. Sometime all platoon ot company had such conscripts - all depended on previous losses. Commanders sent them forward first of all in order to they "washed the shame of occupation". They often went to the fight either immediately without even basic training or after several days poor tarining in style "this is a rifle, here this is how it loads, and in this way it shots - Germans will teach the rest". Only after several clashes, survivors took military oath, received uniform and were officially included in the lists of own units. How much of "black jackets" got lost - nobody knows. Probably large part of them, who got lost before official including to unit lists, never were counted as military losses and to this time counts like "civil victims of fascism"     

Edited May 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

On 5/16/2022 at 8:49 PM, CAZmaj said:

Non-satisfactory performance, not fully qualified to command a significantly expanded and new military force?

Yes, there were many complaints, which I read in twitter about the work of previous chief. 

[Artkin]

17 hours ago, Machor said:

An insightful thread on Russian logistics for the current fighting, where the supply lines of frontline BTGs are stretched longer than the Soviet norm for divisions:

Thanks for those graphics, they're pretty useful even outside of this conflict.

[Cederic]

18 hours ago, FancyCat said:

There was a slight worry Poland would get themselves condemned and isolated by the EU for defending and being alongside Orban and turning anti-democratic, but I'm hoping with Russia reminding Europe and Poland where to point the sword towards, Poland cools off and recognizes its place in the EU as part of a strong EE bloc is much better than trying to do whatever the hell its doing with its judiciary. 

The problem is that the EU act too similarly to Russia and the Poles aren't going to accept that.

For instance the EU's position on Northern Ireland was articulated today by European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, a communist party member that was educated in Moscow.

The suggestion that the Polish President was reluctant to accept Ukrainian refugees until public demand became apparent feels congruous with that. In my experience Poles are simple people (that's a compliment btw) who really focus on what matters. Self determination really matters to them.

But back on topic,

17 hours ago, akd said:

The silly existence of the T-80U in active service proves a handy analytical tool:

It's impressive, although I wouldn't want to assume without further evidence that the results are transferable - the level of information will vary across the oblasts, the villages, the battlefields, the forests.

It may be that the Russian 1st GTA was fighting in an area with a lot of social media submissions, and that in other parts of Ukraine Oryx is capturing far fewer of the losses. The inverse is also very possible.

 

[Cederic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805  has a number of worrying elements in today's updates from Mariupol.

Specifically the Russian court case to declare the Azov Battalion a terrorist organisation, the refusal to confirm that the people extracted to Russia will be treated as POWs and not war criminals, and "Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma, said those evacuated should not be subject to exchange and should instead be brought to justice"

I fear it's inevitable that the defenders of Azovstal are going to be tortured and likely murdered following show trials with predetermined outcomes :(

 

[z1812]

As carried by the New York Times. An interesting article.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/ny-times-shifts-pro-war-narrative/

[Battlefront.com]

54 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm struggling to understand the "why" behind these proposals, so hopefully someone way more versed on the ins and outs of this can enlighten me. Is it an economic cost saving measure? Where they have to pay to play to be part of them but with all the sanctions they aren't seeing any benefits so they cut their losses? Does it somehow free them up from rules or regulations that impede their trade and by getting out they can somehow circumvent the situation? Or is it an emotional response of walking away and hoping to be begged back? 

Any insight is greatly appreciated.

This is a guess and adds to what Billindc just wrote...

The problem with bluffing and bluster is that if someone calls you out on it you're not going to have an easy way to back down.  This is just a universal truth that is as relevant to individuals as it is nation states.

Putin has said to everybody, especially his own people, that NATO expansion is a huge threat to Russia's ability to exist as a people (not just nation, people!).  He's made all kinds of threats over the years and it's largely "worked" because there weren't many new countries actively looking to join NATO.  This allowed Putin to ratchet up the rhetoric for the domestic audience without obvious contradiction.  Same with Putin's general language about NATO threatening Russia.

Most of the membership enlargement happened a long time ago when Putin wasn't as dependent upon saber rattling as he is now, so many countries (like Albania) joined without too much of an issue.  Montenegro was a rare exception, which was particularly galling since it had been a part of Serbia, Russia's traditional ally in the Balkans.  One year before official accession to NATO (2017) Russia attempted to assassinate the Montenegrin Prime Minister and stage a coup with the explicit goal of pulling out of NATO membership.

The other exception is North Macedonia, which joined in 2020.  Russia tried hard, with threats and organizing/funding anti-NATO political movements within the country, to derail the process.  However, at the time there was a trial going on for the Montenegrin coup disaster so I think Russia had to keep things more subtle.  Plus, it's not a high profile country so it could better afford to let that one go.

OK, so back to the present...

Finland and Sweden saying they want to join NATO has caused a huge problem for Putin because he's told his people such a move is welcoming NATO genocide of Russians *and* that Russia is a strong nation that can stand up to NATO.  If Putin can't show his people that Russia has the ability to stand up to this move then he's admitting that Russia isn't a powerful country and, following his deranged logic, Russia is now one step closer to being wiped off the face of the Earth.

Finland and Sweden just called Putin's bluff and his traditional means of pulling strings in Europe appear to be ineffective.  Russia's military is bleeding to death in Ukraine while the world looks on and laughs at it.  Russia's economy is in the crapper and it's been cut off from most of the world socially.  This leaves Putin with very few options to show his people that he's able to retaliate and save Russia from the evil NATO, EU, and the West in general. 

It seems withdrawing from the world further is intended to send the message to Russians that withdrawing from international organizations makes them weaker and Russia stronger.  Obviously this isn't true, but then again we're not his audience.

Steve

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Denis Sukhanov, artillery officer for unknown unit:

 

[poesel]

How long will Erdogan resist against Finland & Sweden joining NATO? Or to phrase it better: what does he want for his agreement and will he get it?

 

19 minutes ago, Cederic said:

The problem is that the EU act too similarly to Russia and the Poles aren't going to accept that.

Sorry, can't let that slip. No, the EU does not act similar to Russia. There are only some political parties who would like to have a more authoritarian kind of state and this is opposed by the EU.

Funnily, the same people who are opposed to the EU are more than happy to take money from it.