How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

On 4/28/2022 at 8:05 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

Fierce battles around Dovhenke, key to the Izyum-Sloviansk road, much as @Combatintman predicted.

"Dan" continues to piece together outstanding chronos of various key actions...

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 bloody weeks later and the Russians finally seem to hold Dovhenke, which @Combatintman flagged back on 23 April as a tough nut to crack on the road to Sloviansk.

... I am a little skeptical though that the Russians are going to be doing any broken-field running at this point though, still less pocketing anything.

...DefMon seems to think that's a southern limit for the Izyum bridgehead.

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Nice illustration of the 'interior lines' advantage here.

And how much harder yet is it for the Russians to shift forces to Hulyaipole? Just sayin'

P.S.  Paging @Aragorn2002  tax dollars hard at work....

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

BMPT "Terminator" in Luhansk oblast. They have "O" markings, so already were involved on NE axis and suffered losses near Brovary, Kyiv oblast.

Reportedly in 2018-2019 90th guard tank division of Central military district received 10 Terminators for test use. Looks like they remained single party of Terminators in Russian service  

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

First spotted combat usage in this war of UKR UAG-40 grenade launcher (second video). This weapon has been producing since 2010, as well as NATO-type ammunitions to it (40 mm HEFRAg and HEAT-FRAG), but  only for export (Nigeria). UKR MoD, having huge Soviet stockpiles of 30 mm grenades for AGS-17 was in no harry to adopt this weapon. Single items of UAG-40 participated in warfare 2014-2015 in volunteer units. Only after 2016, when defficite of 30 mm grenades began and UKR became order it in Bulgaria, UAG-40 started state trial program and completed it in 2017. But since there was no information about large amounts of UAG-40, produced series for Ukrainian army. Maybe some changed since 2019, but I havn't such information

 

 

[Phantom Captain]

Why has someone not yet made an intro/splash screen mod of that ubiquitous song for CMBS???   

Edited May 15, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[The_MonkeyKing]

otherwise very common video but I am seeing significant amount of airburst being used.

[akd]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am seeing significant amount of airburst being used.

Tree bursts.

[Haiduk]

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Tree bursts.

good point, might very well be.

so I am still waiting to see first significant amounts of airburst.

[Kinophile]

12 hours ago, JonS said:

The USMC did an assault crossing of the obstacle/mine belt south of Kuwait City in 1991. That's about the only example I can think of that comes close.

Oh, wait - the Egyptians did that stunningly successful assault crossing of the Suez Canal (/hattip to @SeinfeldRules). There might be some other examples from around Israel in the 60s and 70s. But that's all 50-60 years old, and right at the dawn of ATGMs and PGMs.

Another really interesting aspect of the Suez Canal crossing was that it was by a NATO equiv. attacking force against a Soviet advised, structured and equipped defender.

Now granted, the Egyptians were in a bad shape by then but its the only real example of "modern" (post Korea) equivalently armed, mechanised forces from NATO type doctrine and TOE vs. Soviet type doctrine and TOE.

Now, I don't know enough about Korea. I do know NK was heavily soviet-ized initially, but that was more WW2 type armies donkey punching each other, than  NATO v WP with ATGMs.

I don't know if there was much contested river crossing. Not doubting, just don't know. 

 

[Haiduk]

Russian TG channel writes due to big losses, 810th naval infantry brigade roundouts itself with personnel of other units of Black Sea fleet, including members of ship crews. So, probably here maybe a reason of two last deaths of BSF officers

This source claims 810th brigade lost 158 KIA, 500 WIA, 70 MIA

   

Edited May 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[keas66]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Another really interesting aspect of the Suez Canal crossing was that it was by a NATO equiv. attacking force against a Soviet advised, structured and equipped defender.

Now granted, the Egyptians were in a bad shape by then but its the only real example of "modern" (post Korea) equivalently armed, mechanised forces from NATO type doctrine and TOE vs. Soviet type doctrine and TOE.

Now, I don't know enough about Korea. I do know NK was heavily soviet-ized initially, but that was more WW2 type armies donkey punching each other, than  NATO v WP with ATGMs.

I don't know if there was much contested river crossing. Not doubting, just don't know. 

 

Yeah I was just about to raise that as another example of a post WW2 Soviet Style organized  military force  eventually getting smacked in the face after some initial surprise successes and that was way before Desert Storm in 91 .

[Harmon Rabb]

Radio transmissions from the Moskva after it was hit.

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Radio transmissions from the Moskva after it was hit.

This audio have appeared since about 10 days after Moskva was sunk and shared in social media. But some experts considered this is fake. 

[Harmon Rabb]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This audio have appeared since about 10 days after Moskva was sunk and shared in social media. But some experts considered this is fake. 

I can't read Ukrainian, but out of curiosity is this the an official Ukrainian military Facebook page and if it is would you say it can be trusted?

https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/?hc_ref=ARTgtoM1H7R-xIUGpO77MXutr5uTTV8SCEQgZFaZ6V6UjM6oQKRRfEdf-z0JTji55Hg&fref=nf&__xts__[0]=68.ARAwAqrCl98qoGPkvOo46sHC2RoWDYdD1_u_FE69rdwPR_KTZbsobMBR8AJZGrlqzkPgeup3wk9GI6mpK1T-RBf7BD9YNyh5Ox5bQlvXjxzjdiNqYcblvwnb1c8wfhJxsUVXzTJGA8krMt7phGA-mL4nh5eLQ0TDKsms_CX4uu4Vzly2FuMXhGDtvYCL98j7wS5so30Zz7V0gtTA6fDpZuarY6a4oRPNxTy06Y-ehKB0pFb6pyWUVlWXPFViAbOwjsC94Q3gJ_q3xhfckhfUHCQTumLz5J7SIRKcOXw23w77

 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I can't read Ukrainian, but out of curiosity is this the an official Ukrainian military Facebook page and if it is would you say it can be trusted?

https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/?hc_ref=ARTgtoM1H7R-xIUGpO77MXutr5uTTV8SCEQgZFaZ6V6UjM6oQKRRfEdf-z0JTji55Hg&fref=nf&__xts__[0]=68.ARAwAqrCl98qoGPkvOo46sHC2RoWDYdD1_u_FE69rdwPR_KTZbsobMBR8AJZGrlqzkPgeup3wk9GI6mpK1T-RBf7BD9YNyh5Ox5bQlvXjxzjdiNqYcblvwnb1c8wfhJxsUVXzTJGA8krMt7phGA-mL4nh5eLQ0TDKsms_CX4uu4Vzly2FuMXhGDtvYCL98j7wS5so30Zz7V0gtTA6fDpZuarY6a4oRPNxTy06Y-ehKB0pFb6pyWUVlWXPFViAbOwjsC94Q3gJ_q3xhfckhfUHCQTumLz5J7SIRKcOXw23w77

 

I know, that today this audio was issued officially by OC "South", but who say we havn't own propaganda? %)

I see two versions:

 - this audio was scanned by radio amateurs and isuued in social media, now it checked, verified and issued officially

- this initially was fake audio, our militaries learned about in only now and issued it without factcheking just for "good news"

[Haiduk]

UKR Su-25

 

[rocketman]

2 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

Why has someone not yet made an intro/splash screen mod of that ubiquitous song for CMBS???   

Well, I made a splash screen (see mod thread) so maybe someone can add the music.

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, JonS said:

Funny - my question was exclusively related to the period post-WWII

Yup, it suddenly occurred to me that were were talking about very different parts of Soviet history.

10 hours ago, JonS said:

... was really wondering whether the Western freak out from the '60's right up till the wall crumbled in 89/90 was justified.

I started really digging into Soviet capabilities when I was way too young to fully understand what I was researching.  However, perhaps through sheer luck the theories I came up with when I was 15-18 years old seem to have been spot on.

Back when I was just getting started on this road, I felt that if the Soviets and Western Allies had pretty much gone straight into WW3 that the Soviets would have lost.  Why?  Even as a kid I had a sense that superior technology + nuanced doctrine would beat the Soviet system of mass + simplicity.  As I accumulated knowledge I found that my fairly simplistic thinking was correct, even if as a kid I didn't exactly know why.

One of the defining moments in my youth was the infamous "tank gap" argument that had gained a lot of steam in the 1980s.  Even with my scant knowledge of any of the stuff I know today, when I heard skeptics challenge the "tank gap" theory I found myself thinking "those guys are correct". The combined arms capabilities of NATO were likely more than enough to deal with the Warsaw Pact's paper strength superiority.  Desert Storm showed that theory indicated that thinking was correct.

After the Soviet Union collapsed I had my History degree in hand and a much larger pile of books in my library.  To me it was very clear that the skeptics of the Warsaw Pact's capabilities to fight were correct.  WP looked strong on paper, but in reality weren't likely to do much in a war with NATO.  Especially in the very late 1980s because the conscripts and even officers wanted to be done with the whole Soviet/Communist crap.  If war had happened it's not even a sure thing that some of those nations would have fought at all, not to mention fought well!

Russia's military capabilities since then have repeatedly shown they aren't very good at fighting wars.  When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 many people thought "oh boy, they finally figured out how to not suck!", but I was very firm that this wasn't the case.  While there were signs of improvement, there were also definite red flags that they were just as bad as they had been when fighting Georgia, which was itself not that much better than the 2nd Chechen War.

All of this shows a consistency that stretches back to WW2 when the Soviets were, definitely, at the top of their game militarily.  The Soviets/Russians won their wars by brute force, sprinkled with cleverness.  The more and more warfare has become technological, the less effective mass (brute force) is.  The force ratio between a massed attacker and technological defender necessary for attacker success has increased dramatically in the past 20 years.  Russia simply doesn't have what it takes to achieve that ratio against Ukraine.  Clearly

In summary... I have always thought the Soviets had serious limitations when fighting a technologically superior and more flexible adversary.  I have always thought they would lose to NATO and 2014/2015 indicated to me that they would lose to Ukraine.  I am not even remotely surprised that Russia lost this war.  It simply wasn't up for the fight.

Steve

[db_zero]

15 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

And, of course, the Israelis crossed  going the other way on October 15th during their counter-attack. Possibly more impressive as it was managed at shorter notice and without the massive numerical edge.

If I’m not mistaken the Israeli counterattack across the Suez was lead by a special reconnaissance unit using captured Russian vehicles.

During the crossing and moving forward the Israelis encountered an experimental Japanese horticulture facility.

Thinking the writing was Chinese the ensuing battle in the area became known as the battle for The Chinese Farm. It was a very intense battle.

Edited May 15, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG channel writes due to big losses, 810th naval infantry brigade roundouts itself with personnel of other units of Black Sea fleet, including members of ship crews. So, probably here maybe a reason of two last deaths of BSF officers

This source claims 810th brigade lost 158 KIA, 500 WIA, 70 MIA

This unit was probably near its full authorized strength and likely had a lower proportion of conscripts than other units.  Let's assume 2000 full strength, less 500 conscripts (25%), less 150 of its contractors (10%).  This means the unit going into initial fighting could have been around 1350 at the start of the war.

Assuming the above casualties figures are accurate, assuming this is the total of all casualties then we're talking about 53% casualties in total, adjusted to about 50.8% with light wounded coming back into service.

Now, if my starting assumption of strength is too high... well, then it looks even worse.

Either way, the majority of the casualties were probably in the infantry battalions, which means their combat potential is even worse than the already terrible casualty figures indicate.

This is more evidence that when we see Regiments and Brigades being discussed, we should be thinking a single BTG in terms of effective strength.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Nice illustration of the 'interior lines' advantage here.

And how much harder yet is it for the Russians to shift forces to Hulyaipole? Just sayin'

P.S.  Paging @Aragorn2002  tax dollars hard at work....

 

Wraak voor MH17. From Amsterdam to Moscow with love...

[Harmon Rabb]

Here's another Ukrainian artillery shell with writing mentioning the Katyn massacre of Polish officers.

[dan/california]

Incendiary cluster bombs have been a thing since at least the later stages of WW2. They are what the B-29s used to burn down most of Japan.

[BornGinger]

21 hours ago, Vacillator said:

the TV as Eurovision and Ukraine's entry was playing.  The singer gave a shout out to Azovstal and Mariupol. 

Tho Politics is invading the Eurovision again? It doesn't surprise me as it has happened before. And Ukraine won on sympathy points from the other countries, or did they actually choose the "best" song this time?