How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

On the earlier Poll ... seriously whats up with the Greeks ? Still smarting from the economic sledgehammer they got hit with by the EU a few years back ?  I understanding holding a grudge  but didn't think it was that serious to get them rooting for Putler .

Much of this is a mix due to WW2, the German EU dominance, the economic misery of the past decade and a very important thing, the religious connection of more conservative layers of society to the "Orthodox Brothers". (Which is rather silly considering Ukrainians are orthodox too but are being killed by Chexhens) But there is centuries old cultural connection with Russia, the Cyrilus and Methodius from Byzantine Thessaloniki spreading the Cyrillic alphabet and Christianity to the Slavs etc. 

We traditionally had good relations with Russia, along with the British and the French they were allies against the Ottomans and helped us develop today's modern state after 400 yrs of Turkish rule. 

It's more about Russia and less about Putin though. There is also some ignorance on the darker side of his rule. But most people I know are rather shocked and worried with the russian invasion.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

But is a dangerous path to equalize them with the illness of Nazi Germany. A key difference is that Nazi army was much more disciplined but the atrocities were a calculated wider fascist plan and policy we all know about. I can't repeat it every time, these aren't on the same weight and most historians will tell us this. Nazi Germany was a greater threat to the World at that time than USSR that's why the free powers of planet earth back then sided with them and provided aid of millions to defeat Hitler. Doesn't this make sense? 

 

The West didn't side with USSR because Nazi Germany was a greater threat to the world, but because it was greater threat right there and then and when USSR also got into the fight against Germans - supporting it would've been the only logical step to take. Because, remember, USSR started World War 2 together with Germany as allies. Nobody forgot that for a second, hence "Operation Unthinkable".

The only reason the other half of Europe hasn't witnessed how much of genocidal maniacs Russians can be is because USA got nukes and everybody jumped under the umbrella - and even that didn't stop USSR from bringing death and misery to the world for the next 45 years. Name literally any genocidal regime after 1945 - and you can be damn sure USSR was, if not balls deep in it, then actively pouring stuff into it.

And, oh boy, if we are to talk deathcounts... In Ukraine alone Russia has murdered about as many Ukrainians as NG killed Jews. Russia killed millions in other countries it occupied, but Ukraine had it worse because it was the most populous of them and also because Russians just have that genocidal boner about us they can't seem to ever tame.

USSR and Nazi Germany are one and the same. Some just had to deal with it for 70 years instead of 7. And then USSR just called itself "Federation" instead of "Union".

Edited May 8, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Yes I agree that is the big question. How do the people react? I think there are two segments of the Russian Federation that will hold the ball in their hands; the young/open-minded/want to be more western types and the "minorities". I think the minorities are the biggest threat and they could also cause a domino effect not only in the other minority states but could be a catalyst for the non-slavophile/super-race/ultranationalist wannabe Soviets again crowd. 

There has to be a lot of "rebels" in Chechnya and Georgia and other places watching this war very closely and looking at their odds of success increasing every day with the losses to the RA. Especially the gutting of the VDV and other units that were used heavily for oppression. Seems there has to be a point when they decide their chances for independence are significantly greater than 3 months ago. I don't think their chance of success has peaked yet but it will and then at some point the chances will start to lower again. Hopefully somewhere in that bell curve they will pull the trigger.

If a couple rebellions would kick off while the RA is still heavily engaged and has all it's resources committed in Ukraine it would be horribly destabilizing for the Kremlin. The reports say most of the RA comes from the poorer non-Russian states so if those states were to rebel what does that do to the RA? If nothing else it cuts off their primary source of politically safe conscripts. This results in having to conscript heavily from actual Russian areas. Which in turn causes more destabilization as it seems most Russians are willing to fight to the last Uzbek but aren't lining up at the recruiting stations to fill the billets themselves. It also immediately changes the view of the people in those Russian areas which undermines the ability of the Kremlin to continue it's lies and propaganda. Which further, well, you see the slippery slope that the internal problems could quickly spiral into. 

So that brings us back to Beria. I don't think Putin or the Kremlin are always stupid. They might be very stupid in their decision to invade Ukraine but they seem to be pretty politically astute when it comes to managing to stay in power. They have to recognize these same possibilities and therefore are looking to what worked for Putin's hero Stalin. Their only chance to stay in power if anything goes sideways is a crushing state apparatus the likes of which the Soviets had in their early years. Probably be even more important now since there are quite a few Russians that have had a taste of the good life and won't happily go back to the Soviet era bread lines.

The fate of their nation is in the hands of the people, like all other nations. We'll have to wait and see if the Russian people decide they are ready for something new or not. 

I keep hearing about the possibilites of separatist movements getting traction in Russia, yet I don't really recall hearing about any, after the Chechen rebellion was extinguished. AFAIK Kadyrov is quite happy with being part of RF, there were even some signals that he might be Putins successor (poor Russia really...).

What is interesting is what will happen in the (former) Russian sphere of influence along it's borders. Let's take a quick look:

- Moldova/ Transnistra. I can't imagine that status quo will be maintained there after the war. Either Russians will leave or will be evicted forcefully at some point

- Belarus- now that's a pickle really. I'd love to see Batka hanged from the lamppost, hopefully after internal uprising. Ukrainian/ Free Belarusian invasion can't be ruled out at some point in the future too, but my bet is that f****r will somehow survive.

-Georgia is in a precarious situation, I don't think they are able to try and force the end to Ossetia/ Abkhazia situation, unless Russia was to completely collapse.

- Armenia is royally screwed in it's conflict with Azerbaijan. 

- About the Central Asian republics I don't know much about their internal politics, but logically if Russia is weakened, it will open the whole region to more intense Chinese influence. The talk about The Great Game 2.0 was first heard in context of Afghanistan, but I think it will only get more tempo in upcoming years.

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

1 hour ago, asurob said:

The Soviets and the Nazis were equal evil. 

Brutal yes, evil... I am not so sure.  Gas chambers just kind of goes for the win in pure evil.

Anyway back on topic - any more news of what is going on around Kharkov?  Vorchans'k always did look to me like a target for at least interdiction. Looking at @LongLeftFlankpost early it seems Russian supply issue may start getting a lot worse.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

 New news from Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces took Popasna.

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Russian mentality is akin to primitive tribes - meaning that their will to fight is tied to them gaining something materialistic - that includes not just territory on global level, but looting on a personal one*. So if they will just keep getting killed without any new toilets to steal (both literal and proverbial) - their morale will suffer quickly and it will be another collapse like the one that happened near Kyiv. That primitive tribal mentality is also the cause for rape of children and elders - as a means to dominate their victim.

That primitive mentality is why you can't reason with them and is also a hard one to grasp for way more civilized cultures. Russians have no concept of humanity or cooperation with anyone, their mental level is largely that of small children - so that's why they are fanatically convinced of own superiority, to them everybody exists only to give them stuff (or rather have it taken), it's why Russians go "lies lies lies I don't hear you la la la" when presented with evidence they don't like, constantly cry about "russophobia" abroad (even though nobody oppresses them ever) and before you say "woah dude don't you exaggerate?" - look at their leaders. One is raging about how Ukraine was invented by Lenin and the other one is raging about how Jews did Holocaust. Leaders, which are the best people they have, spewing nonsense you hear from some kid in Call of Duty online.

And unfortunately these children have weapons that kill.

*looting got decriminalized in Russia in March literally for that very reason.

Appreciate your response. Russia is a vast country with many ethnic groups. It seems some are not enthusiastic at the current state of affairs and have little desire to join in this war. The relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been destroyed for decades to come. I don't know how Ukrainians feel about the other ethic groups and regions that compose Russia and I can't imagine having my country ravished like Ukraine.

I have no idea how all this ends and how the 2 sides can co-exist next to each other. Even if Putin gets taken down by a coup I don't know if what comes next will be better. The idea of a democratic Russia or something even close seems like fantasy.

I don't know much about Russia. I studied it extensively 40 years ago in College, but that was a different time and all academic.

I did know someone who migrated from Moscow a few years back well. We were co-workers and he was thankful for being able to come to America. He had high technical skills so it was probably easier to get a visa and eventual citizenship. He had a lot to tell me and warned me to be wary of Putin and don't believe anything he says. I'm sure he's probably very upset at what happening now.

[Huba]

Suddenly:

 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 New news from Eastern Ukraine, Russian forces took Popasna.

I wonder whether the final fall of Popasna matters all that much.  It's been destroyed and it seems UKR forces simply pulled back a short distance to their next line.  RU forces paid very high price for not much gain from what I can see.  And it took them weeks of fighting and huge artillery expenditure for a few kilometers of shredded ground.

I guess we'll know how much this matters over next few days. 

[DavidFields]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

So, the May 9th is upon us, Putin will give his speech 12 hours from now and announce what's going to happen next from the Russian side. We have discussed all the possibilities quite exhaustively. Assumingno major new developments in next few hours, what are your bets on what Putin is going to say?

My take:

- announces Kherson Republic

- war to end as soon as liberating Donbas is finished (every day now, but it will take a great effort...)

- no mobilization, at least not general one

- Russia must be ready for war with NATO, nuclear sabre rattling

I don't think we can exclude Putin saying:

1. Ukraine does not exist.  That land is now considered by Russia to be part of Russia.

2. The Baltic States are in the Russian sphere of influence.  It is unfortunate that they are currently in NATO, but they will be forced out of it.

3. The same for various countries in Eastern Europe, which he might name specifically.

4. If Finland applies for NATO membership, Russia will consider it an act of war.

 

We, Russia, can do this because we are a nuclear power, and therefore no one can definitively stop us, even if it takes years of fighting.

Isn't this what you want, the Russian people?  You want to belong to something great.  

(He might throw in some "Nazi" language--but that is marketing, and ultimately not necessary for his assertion of Russia's supposed place.  He might put a long, fiery, but ultimately dreary, historical preamble to the above.  And some religion.  He feels both intensely, and feels --so-- slighted.  But, again, ultimately such verbiage is not necessary.  It is a sheer Power/Will exercise. )

At least, from what I had read, the above was sort of what he was telling everyone prior to Feb 24. Didn't he say something like "Now will you listen to me!", shortly after the invasion?

 

David

 

 

 

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Suddenly:

 

So...doubling down on the degenerate gamble.

 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Suddenly:

 

Huba, you da man!  You have great info, and this one might be one of your best scoops. 

So will Putin actually announce this tomorrow?  Gonna be an interesting monday. 

I am still hoping he gets the same nice parade performance that was received by Anwar Sadat. 

[BornGinger]

What I wrote above about the Russians acting like the political correctness rabble and copying their behaviour was a joke. But as you took it seriously my comment about your opinion about the Confederate States is that whether or not people like that they wanted to become independent from the crooks in the USA in the 1860s it is a part of the history and those statues help people to remember it.

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

...are you equating Russian fascists, who have been raping, murdering, and blowing up Ukraine in a deliberate and coordinated state effort to eradicate an entire people from the face of the Earth, with people exercising their free speech

I'm pretty sure the Russians don't want to eradicate the whole Ukrainian population. The goal with their blowing up of buildings in Ukraine, murdering and raping the people and stealing from them is their way of trying to force the Ukrainians to stop the fighting and to get something to sell on the Russian black market or to give to their girlfriend. USA used exactly the same method in their war against Japan and Vietnam.

So if you try to remember the history of the wars of USA and their (your) attempt to force their democracy (McDonalds, Starbucks etc.) on people of other cultures you should recognice the way of how Russia behaves in Ukraine. It's actually not so different from how North Vietnam was treated by USA. And the same thing had happened 20 years earlier in Germany.

Edited May 8, 2022 by BornGinger

[Splinty]

4 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

 

I'm pretty sure the Russians don't want to eradicate the whole Ukrainian people. The goal with their blowing up of buildings in Ukraine, murdering and raping the people and stealing from them is their way of trying to force to Ukrainians to stop the fighting. USA used exactly the same method in their war against Japan and Vietnam.

 

Uh, no we didn't. 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

whether or not people like that they wanted to become independent from the crooks in the USA in the 1860s it is a part of the history and those statues help people to remember it.

Yes Massa.

Edited May 8, 2022 by akd

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

Suddenly:

 

FYI, claims this is altered/photoshopped. Likely happening anyway but we'll see.

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Huba, you da man!  You have great info, and this one might be one of your best scoops. 

So will Putin actually announce this tomorrow?  Gonna be an interesting monday. 

I am still hoping he gets the same nice parade performance that was received by Anwar Sadat. 

OTOH there seems to be some talk on Twitter that this image is photoshopped. If that's real we'll have confirmation soon enough.

Yeah, the Sadat treatment with Switchblade is probably the best that could happen to everyone now.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Yes Massa.

oh yeah, remembering why I blocked bornginger.  Life better this way. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, c3k said:

I much preferred this thread when it was discussing the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

I tried to get Steve to talk about the new game, I did, I swear it.

[ASL Veteran]

While Steve might have a point about why the Democratic Party erected all those monuments to Confederate Generals - seems plausible to me - I think it's also fair to point out that the Confederate Flag as well as other references to monuments to Confederate Generals have evolved somewhat over time to represent generalized 'Southern Pride' for many who live in the south as shown below

There are also many monuments located at the various battlefields dedicated to both Union and Confederate soldiers and units.  You can't hardly walk 50 yards at Gettysburg without bumping into a monument to someone.  I just wanted to toss that out there because there are a lot of people from other countries, and they might not see the full context.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, ASL Veteran said:

While Steve might have a point about why the Democratic Party erected all those monuments to Confederate Generals - seems plausible to me - I think it's also fair to point out that the Confederate Flag as well as other references to monuments to Confederate Generals have evolved somewhat over time to represent generalized 'Southern Pride' for many who live in the south as shown below

There are also many monuments located at the various battlefields dedicated to both Union and Confederate soldiers and units.  You can't hardly walk 50 yards at Gettysburg without bumping into a monument to someone.  I just wanted to toss that out there because there are a lot of people from other countries, and they might not see the full context.

this picture is not "full context for foreigners".   That is a an extreme outlier of a picture.  It's like "jews for Hitler".  That is so misleading as to be a complete lie.  The 1 out of 10,000 exception is shown and we are meant to conclude the utterly, ridiculous "see, even the black folks loooooove the confederacy!"

ASL Veteran, you should ashamed of trying to pass this off as informative.

[panzermartin]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

FYI, claims this is altered/photoshopped. Likely happening anyway but we'll see.

 

Photoshopped but made look like it was pen corrected...? This could be real and I don't want to think about it 

[Hapless]

Funny how the technophilia creeps in. Why photoshop a mobilisation card when you can get an old one and change the date with a pen?

On a related note, guess we either spend hours sifting and cross-referencing sources to find out what Russian mobilisation cards look like...

or... wait until tomorrow.

See you in the morning

[MSBoxer]

 

[ASL Veteran]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

this picture is not "full context for foreigners".   That is a an extreme outlier of a picture.  It's like "jews for Hitler".  That is so misleading as to be a complete lie.  The 1 out of 10,000 exception is shown and we are meant to conclude the utterly, ridiculous "see, even the black folks loooooove the confederacy!"

ASL Veteran, you should ashamed of trying to pass this off as informative.

It's actually not - or wasn't an extreme outlier maybe ten years ago.  probably less common now.  

[asurob]

33 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

USA used exactly the same method in their war against Japan and Vietnam.

So if you try to remember the history of the wars of USA and their (your) attempt to force their democracy (McDonalds, Starbucks etc.) on people of other cultures you should recognice the way of how Russia behaves in Ukraine. It's actually not so different from how North Vietnam was treated by USA. And the same thing had happened 20 years earlier in Germany.

Dude. Not even close.