How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

Good point...I think the chances of Belarus democratizing in the near future (hopefully relatively peacefully) are pretty high. Once that happens, the center of gravity in the EU could very well tip eastward eventually. Of course, it's not a zero-sum game and the rise of a Poland-Ukraine-Belarus bloc could be very mutually beneficial for it and the rest of Europe. It will take some time, of course, Ukraine will need some time for reform and rebuilding before fully integrating into the EU and Belarus would take even longer, even after a change of government...

Spain + Italy are 107 million people and close to the 20% of EU GDP. Italy+France+Spain are 174 million people (40% of the EU population) and about one third of the EU GDP. 

If Ukraine and Belarus joined the EU, then they would add about 63 million people and 200 biilion dollars GDP to the EU (about an 1,2% increase of the EU GDP) which is less than Portugal GDP. 

I don't see EU center of gravity going east in a near future.

[womble]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.quora.com/How-does-the-MRSI-Multiple-Rounds-Simultaneous-Impact-technique-work-for-an-artillery-gun-system

"And the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 can do 5 rounds at targets up to 17 km away. There are others."

Quora, so fistful of salt. But checks out.

That mostly* tracks with other articles I've read** on MRSI. Your limitation is "how far can a minimum-charge round get". With a 5-fer, you can shoot the maximum range of your 1-bag round, with a pair of 2-bags, and a pair of 3-bags, each pair shooting one high and one low trajectory. If your system can shoot 6, the range will be a bit shorter than your maximum 1-bagger, because you have to shoot a high and a low round with the 1 bag charges, which will reduce your reach.

I can't begin to imagine what having glide-capable munitions like Excalibur adds to the MRSI potential, if anything more than range...

* There's one comment that doesn't even know that MRSI is different to TOT...

** I make no claim to expertise beyond the cursory theoretical... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artillery#Multiple_round_simultaneous_impact

[Aragorn2002]

22 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Fair point... And I think it's what I was getting at with the Star Trek quote last night. I do believe a relative world peace is entirely possible, but human nature is human nature and the only way to maintain peace is to enforce it through norms and mutual support. Si vis pacem, para bellum. The hard part of that is the impulse to give in to an early triumphalism and get complacent...

Absolutely. And when you look at it, the situation is far from rosy. War is raging in and dividing Europe and nobody knows where this will end, we're possibly heading for a global, economical crisis and have to spend billions and billions on arms, alternative energy, helping refugees and if God willing Ukraine survives all this, building up an entire country again. And that's not nearly all. 

The only ones that profit from the present chaos are the Chinese, who are probably laughing their heads off right now. I'm convinced they encouraged Putin in all this and are not nearly as worried and neutral as we Western softies like to think. The economies of the West are severly weakened by the war in Ukraine and it's consequences (increased defence budgets, other and more expensive ways of finding the energy to keep our factories running, a Tsunami of millions of Ukrain refugees, that have to be fed and housed, and so on and so forth). And all this  time China prepares for the future...

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Spain + Italy are 107 million people and close to the 20% of EU GDP. Italy+France+Spain are 174 million people (40% of the EU population) and about one third of the EU GDP. 

If Ukraine and Belarus joined the EU, then they would add about 63 million people and 200 biilion dollars GDP to the EU (about an 1,2% increase of the EU GDP) which is less than Portugal GDP. 

I don't see EU center of gravity going east in a near future.

Fair point, and it was definitely in the back of my head that although Germany seems to be EU's CofG right now, France hasn't gone anywhere and I expect that Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, etc. are all only headed upwards if all goes well. That was where I was headed with the not a zero-sum game comment...

[Seedorf81]

9 hours ago, Huba said:

But there's quite a difference between cemetery and monument, don't you think? The example of Hitler statues is actually great here, you wouldn't allow it to stand anywehere, no way, right? Tearing down monuments of your (perceived) opressors is only natural and healthy.

For me, it is not the monuments, statues or musea or whatever that offend me, it is the fanatical and/or nationalistic people that made them possible.

A statue of Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Putin, Mao or even George W. Bush don't mean nothing to me, they can put all of them in front of my house and I do not care. (And though my ex-wife was worse to me than all of the forementioned together, even a statue of her wouldn't be a worry to me. )

It is the people that want to revere and blindly follow murderous leaders that scare the crap out of me.

[lerxster]

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Pretty sure the inboard pylons are fuel droptanks...the others look like some kind of missile (standoff? submunition?) that I can't ID off the top of my head.

Yes drop tanks and Unguided rocket pods by the looks of it (used DCS to help identify so take it with a pinch of salt!)

[lerxster]

.

Edited May 7, 2022 by lerxster
double post :-(

[Seedorf81]

8 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

For me, it is not the monuments, statues or musea or whatever that offend me, it is the fanatical and/or nationalistic people that made them possible.

A statue of Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Putin, Mao or even George W. Bush don't mean nothing to me, they can put all of them in front of my house and I do not care. (And though my ex-wife was worse to me than all of the forementioned together, even a statue of her wouldn't be a worry to me. )

It is the people that want to revere and blindly follow murderous leaders that scare the crap out of me.

Just joined in after a while, reacted before I saw that the monuments-discussion should be over. 

[Aragorn2002]

Meanwhile women in Afghanistan are forced to wear a burka again....know it doesn't belong in this thread, just frustrated.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Pretty sure the inboard pylons are fuel droptanks...the others look like some kind of missile (standoff? submunition?) that I can't ID off the top of my head.

122 mm S-13 rockets (aircraft version of Grad) in B-13 containers for 5 rockets each.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Here what yesterday our General Staff scored as +1 ship - looks like small landing craft pr.11770 "Serna" was hit by Bayraktar, when it was disembarking SAM system (Orix claimed this was TOR) on Zmiinyi island. Double kill. TB2 also hit facility on the ground

Black Sea Fleet has two pr.11770 landing crafts, year ago from Caspian flotilia to Azov was moved several crafts of this project, but I forgot how much. Caspians have four Sernas 

Situation with attack on Admiral Makarov still unclear, RUMINT source from Sevastopol says about 30 ambulances drove from the Sevastopol port after frigate turned back. Russian TG in own messages also tell there is strike had took place, but damaged ship successfully tured back. Ukrainian official military speakers keep silence.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

52 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Spain + Italy are 107 million people and close to the 20% of EU GDP. Italy+France+Spain are 174 million people (40% of the EU population) and about one third of the EU GDP. 

If Ukraine and Belarus joined the EU, then they would add about 63 million people and 200 biilion dollars GDP to the EU (about an 1,2% increase of the EU GDP) which is less than Portugal GDP. 

I don't see EU center of gravity going east in a near future.

First off, in my original comment I really just wanted to highlight how Zelensky feels about Belarus - Belarussians are not the enemy, they are just unfortunately living under the yoke of ( often hillarious) tyrant, whe pulled them into RU sphere of influence, and at this point there's no democratic way out of it. This sentiment is shared by Poland and I assume by the Balts too. We'll see how the situation develops of course, but the chance of Lukashenka following in the steps of Caucescu has rather increased than decreased I think. His survival is tied to Russia being able to protect him, which might not be the case soon enough. 

As for UE future of remainin European ex- Soviet states, I can't imagine any other way forward for them, but it's a matter of decade probably. What's important is that those countries need to be allowed to make the turn West and start to work on their issues without Russia pulling them back into the chasm. For comparison, it took Poland 15 ears from fall of Comuinnism to join the EU. UA is in a bettter position to do it than Poland in 1989, so I'd say maybe 10 years? We'll see, but what's  important is to set off with the process. 

As for the EU's shifting east - it will hapen unavoidably, but PROPORTIONALLY - no more and no less I think. If UA, PL and BY manage to create a strong block inside EU ( again, in 10 years or so), they will have a lot of gravitas surelly, but in no way will dominate. The one most important country in UE will still be Germany, for the forseeable future. 

[kraze]

11 hours ago, poesel said:

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Judging the past with current morale standards is necessary to understanding. But removing the offending statues means that this discussion will never happen again and the atrocities will be forgotten.

You don't need a monument dedicated to some rapist in the middle of your city to know that rape is bad.

In fact having a monument to a rapist makes quite the opposite statement.

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.quora.com/How-does-the-MRSI-Multiple-Rounds-Simultaneous-Impact-technique-work-for-an-artillery-gun-system

"And the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 can do 5 rounds at targets up to 17 km away. There are others."

Quora, so fistful of salt. But checks out.

We used to do the high angle/low angle simultaneous impacts for demonstration purposes. Only 2 rounds because with a 105mm towed M102 that's all there is time for when you have to hand crank the tube up and down. And you might recall from any physics you might have had, that you can hit the same point on the ground from one gun elevation below 45deg and another above 45deg, with the same initial velocity (same charge). We used to fire the high one Quick fuse and the low one VT so that it would be obvious there were two bursts. Civilian and ROTC cadets enjoyed it at firepower demos.

I can't imagine any possible way you could fire 5 without a very modern computerized, motorized mount.

Dave

Edited May 7, 2022 by Ultradave

[womble]

8 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I can't imagine any possible way you could fire 5 without a very modern computerized, motorized mount.

Aye, that's what the PH-2000, AS-90 and the rest supply for the gun laying: automation, fast autoloaders and quick pointing. I think it all probably has to be calculated and the components properly selected and sequenced in the autoloader before anyone pulls a lanyard. But that's what the computer's for, I guess

I first ran into the concept of MRSI in the context of Crusader, I think, but that got cancelled, and I've not seen any article claiming (let alone verifying) the capability for the M-109, added since the cancellation of NLOSC, which was supposed to replace it. The RoF of the M109 doesn't seem fast enough to support more than a 2-fer MRSI.

[Haiduk]

I didn't want to discuss about culture, monuments etc... Today Russians struck museum of famous Ukrainian philosopher of 18th century Hryhoriy Skovoroda, which in Ukrianians jokingly consider as "first hippie", because his thoughts and lyfestyle was a bit similar to this movement. Museum was placed in architectural monument - in the mansion of 18th century, where Skovoroda lived the last years of his life. This is Skovorodynivka village in Kharkiv oblast, 32 km NW from Kharkiv. This was deliberate attack against Ukrianian cultural, historical and national legacy. This building survived war 1918-1920, and Nazi occupation, but couldn't survive "Russian liberation"

Russians like to say: "Russian "barbarians" after conquering next land, leave behind themeselves schcools, libraries and museums". Well, this is true. But before, they just destroy and force to forget almost all national culture features in order to turn us in "Malorosians" ("minor-russians") - "integral part of triune Russian nation - Great-Russians, Minor-Russians and Belo-Russians" and Russian World. So, maybe Russian long time ago had really bright humanistic culture of Pushkin, Dostoyevskyi, Shostakovich... But this culture doesn't work anymore in order to nurture citizens like intellectuals and humanists. Because of from young years Russians are growing up on the cult of war, Russian great-state chauvinism and neo-emipre ambitions, "criminal romantic", examples "whoever has a brutal force and lot of money - he is master of life", their old humanistsic culture is failed. So, I will not be sorry if monument of Pushkin will be removed in Kyiv or subway station named after Lev Tolstoy will be renamed. I was always against total "cancel culture", but if we want to cut off mental ties with Russian world and Soviet legacy, we should do this, keeping a memory of those figures, which were really tied with Ukraine and made own good contribution in our and world legacy. 

Mansion of 18th century with Skovoroda museum before strike...

 

...and after. But Skovoroda still stand!

Edited May 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Commanderski]

I think one of these generals is no longer among the living but it's still funny...

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

I think one of these generals is no longer among the living but it's still funny...

Lol. My kind of humor.

[Ultradave]

13 minutes ago, womble said:

Aye, that's what the PH-2000, AS-90 and the rest supply for the gun laying: automation, fast autoloaders and quick pointing. I think it all probably has to be calculated and the components properly selected and sequenced in the autoloader before anyone pulls a lanyard. But that's what the computer's for, I guess

I first ran into the concept of MRSI in the context of Crusader, I think, but that got cancelled, and I've not seen any article claiming (let alone verifying) the capability for the M-109, added since the cancellation of NLOSC, which was supposed to replace it. The RoF of the M109 doesn't seem fast enough to support more than a 2-fer MRSI.

I agree. I think only a 2-fer could be done in an M109. Love the concept though, if you have artillery capable of it. And yes, it would require calculating and presetting everything, and having the ammo prepped (correct number of powder bags and fuzes set) before starting the firing sequence. That means it's most useful for things like taking out a major HQ or supply depot, and not a target of opportunity. Cool stuff. I didn't know that there were systems that could manage this.

Dave

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Fernando said:

Spain + Italy are 107 million people and close to the 20% of EU GDP. Italy+France+Spain are 174 million people (40% of the EU population) and about one third of the EU GDP. 

If Ukraine and Belarus joined the EU, then they would add about 63 million people and 200 biilion dollars GDP to the EU (about an 1,2% increase of the EU GDP) which is less than Portugal GDP. 

I don't see EU center of gravity going east in a near future.

I also don't see the EU's centre of gravity shifting to the east soon.

I do think that having access to the EU's single market will improve the GDP and living standards of Ukraine over time like they were improved in Poland and the Baltic states.

Ukraine's natural resources will definitely help Ukraine and be beneficial for the European Union, I just hope when this war is over Ukraine will not lose the territory they are located in.

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[FancyCat]

 

[FancyCat]

Uhh if what Ruser is looking at is correct, Izyum where the Russians put in a dense amount of personnel and BTGs, it's about to become a deathtrap now....now let me ask you this, two units were withdrawn from Izyum, 4th tank division and something else, does that mean Russia is already pulling troops out of Izyum and this is Ukraine pushing in or do you suppose that dense grouping of BTGs is still getting hammered?

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Uhh if what Ruser is looking at is correct, Izyum where the Russians put in a dense amount of personnel and BTGs, it's about to become a deathtrap now....now let me ask you this, two units were withdrawn from Izyum, 4th tank division and something else, does that mean Russia is already pulling troops out of Izyum and this is Ukraine pushing in or do you suppose that dense grouping of BTGs is still getting hammered?

Well if UA would be able to take firm control of forests east and west of Izium, Russian situation would be quite bleak. Let's not get the hopes too high yet, bu the risk of encirclement is quite obvious.. 

[benpark]

If the Nathan Russer assessment is correct, coupled with the UAWarData map (taken with a grain of salt) over the past few updates, it looks like there might be either the start of a pullback from Izium, or a move to attempt to solidify the Russian positions for a switch to defense in light of the flank attacks. I'm sure they don't want to lose Izium, but staying there may be a bad choice.

Trying to get into the Russian intent - The movement by the Russian BTG's in the south in two areas (either side of Horlivka) looks to be where some action may now be brewing (maybe ready for the 9th?). The issue would be that this attack would be the bottom pincer, with no top one (if the Izium direction is stalled, and possibly under counter-attack).

Both of these attack directions are astride the M-03 highway, and look to have to rely on more constricted roads for such an attack, so they may try to do a mini-pincer if this is indeed an attack towards the highway. Then, the dream may be up the M-03. Their northern counterparts have their work cut out for them, and would need to redirect their octopus-tentacle attack routes to one that makes sense. This is all dependent on things the Russians lack, however (fresh forces, coordination, good reconnaissance, etc, etc).

If both the north and south Russian attack directions had been coordinated, this could potentially have been a problem for the Ukrainians. The command-and-control displayed by the Russians isn't there, nor is any defined plan that seems anything but reactive thus far, with no hope in sight given the leadership drain.

The Ukrainian 3rd and 4th Separate Tank Brigades pictured around Sloviansk at the center are in a good position to react, or act. Any information about their status as offensive-capable units? Have they been in combat long?

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by benpark

[sross112]

@KinophileThink this is a new one:

Lieutenant Colonel Fezul Bichikaev from Vladikavkaz was the deputy commander of a regiment in Yekaterinburg, possibly the 288th MRR. He was killed on May 2 reportedly leading razvedchiki in Kharkiv Oblast. https://vk.com/wall-72749677_1064363?z=photo-72749677_457351070%2Falbum-72749677_00%2Frev… https://instagram.com/p/CdOsTPjN2CH/ https://e-osetia.ru/news/3384422/pri-ispolnenii-voinskogo-dolga-pogib-zitel-rso-a-bicikaev-fezul-avtandilovic…