How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Pelican Pal]

Maybe I'm missing something here but the removal of the tanks from the Tiergarten didn't literally happen? It looks like a number of cut together clips and then some editing as a sort of ad so I don't quite get why people have been arguing over it for 2-3 pages.

[chuckdyke]

Give me any picture and I can add any roundel. Pictures are no longer evidence. 

[G.I. Joe]

15 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Give me any picture and I can add any roundel. Pictures are no longer evidence. 

True, although the camouflage pattern does look like the Ukrainian digital camo...still possible to fake of course (and no guarantee it wasn't taken during an exercise pre-invasion), but definitely a bit harder than just slapping the roundels on.

[MikeyD]

I freeze-framed the image and adjusted the brightness. Yup, Ukraine markings.

What is that plane carrying, especially on the inboard pylons?

[G.I. Joe]

Just now, MikeyD said:

I freeze-framed the image and adjusted the brightness. Yup, Ukraine markings.

What is that plane carrying, especially on the inboard pylons?

Pretty sure the inboard pylons are fuel droptanks...the others look like some kind of missile (standoff? submunition?) that I can't ID off the top of my head.

[chuckdyke]

Any picture needs the megadata to be published preferably with the original RAW file. 

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Hey, we are still politically dominated by Germany. Bullied at some point. The worst of the people I know thought it was good to offend dead people as revenge. 

Leave the EU. That will solve all your problems.

[chuckdyke]

I like this Austrian analysis. The present situation can be compared with the Battle of Kursk in 1943. I checked the translator, and it works fairly well. Setting translate. '

 

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Leave the EU. That will solve all your problems.

No, we all still believe in the european idea. Unlike the UK. 

[Aragorn2002]

Assuming Putin is slowing losing this war. And he thinks like that quote from the movie The International, 'When there’s no way out, you find a deeper way in', it's possible that he does declare 'total war' next Monday. It will be like a gloves off moment for the Russian people and booster morale and send a message to the West (who probably won't be that impressed). A declaration of war will also bring the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine a step closer. That will of course enrage the world even more, but it will also send a message, namely "Look how far we are prepared to go, so don't think a nuclear war is out of the question'.

Apart from that I think Belarussia isn't out of this war. Declaring war on Ukraine could force Lukashenko to do the same.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No, we all still believe in the european idea. Unlike the UK. 

A wise decision. Well, in that case you have to accept German 'dominance'. Personally I think Germany is a very respectable and noble country, which learned from it's mistakes and deserves to be forgiven. Apart from that it made the unity of Europe and the avoidance of new European wars for a large part financially possible.

Time to forgive, not forget, Panzermartin. Whether we like it or not, the European countries need each other. Unity is more important than ever.

[Kinophile]

Conpare and Contrast:

1.

https://gcaptain.com/russias-sovcomflot-plans-to-sell-part-of-its-fleet-as-sanctions-bite/

Russias tanker fleet is feeling the sanctions. They seem to assume the sanctions will end at some point,are unsure when (duh) and are worried they'll become hollowed out like the Iranian fleet was.

..and 2.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/07/russias-economy-is-back-on-its-feet

Edited May 7, 2022 by Kinophile

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

A wise decision. Well, in that case you have to accept German 'dominance'. Personally I think Germany is a very respectable and noble country, which learned from it's mistakes and deserves to be forgiven. Apart from that it made the unity of Europe and the avoidance of new European wars for a large part financially possible.

Time to forgive, not forget, Panzermartin. Whether we like it or not, the European countries need each other. Unity is more important than ever.

Sad to see the stage is set for Europe to implode once again. Russia can implement a scorched earth strategy. If we can't have it nobody can. Is their reasoning. NATO on the other hand can't afford to give in. 

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Sad to see the stage is set for Europe to implode once again. Russia can implement a scorched earth strategy. If we can't have it nobody can. Is their reasoning. NATO on the other hand can't afford to give in. 

But that's it, isn't it? It's all in Putins hands. He can still save what can be saved, but he probably won't. Time is running out for him, so he has to 'go deeper'. The West should prepare itself for that. The pragmatic Putin we all came to fear (and sometimes 'admire') doesn't seem to exist anymore. Now that is something to worry about.

And what can we do if he decides to try to force victory with tactical nukes and chemical weapons? Despite the present euphoria in the West Vlad still has some cards to play. I bet he will survive all this. A new even more North Korea as somebody in this thread called it.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

if he decides to try to force victory with tactical nukes and chemical weapons?

See or the new generation of conventional munitions is more effective than the terror weapons which chemical and nuclear munitions are. They are designed to undermine the will to fight. Once all hell breaks loose it is kicking in the groin, thumbs squashing eyeballs and knives rupturing kidneys. Diplomacy will be outdated. 

[G.I. Joe]

On 5/5/2022 at 10:23 AM, Huba said:

It is far to soon to make any concrete predictions regarding the fate of rest of Russian sphere of influence at this point. But if general collapse of Russian army (or even better, the political regime) was to happen, it would be a logical thing to do. Belarus is practically in a state of war with Ukraine anyway, and I don't think that population there would be willing to die for Lukashenka - I've never met a Belarusian who would have anything good to say about him, or about how the country is run in general. There are some "Free Belarusians" fighting in Ukraine now,  and if history teaches us anything, those "Free Forces" are often the initiator of political change in their home countries.

I remember Zelensky said some days ago (talking to Duda about the future of Ukraine in EU IIRC), that "together with Belarus there's 90 millions of us (Ukrainians and Poles), more then the Germans". Gives you a little hint about what he thinks of future of BY

Good point...I think the chances of Belarus democratizing in the near future (hopefully relatively peacefully) are pretty high. Once that happens, the center of gravity in the EU could very well tip eastward eventually. Of course, it's not a zero-sum game and the rise of a Poland-Ukraine-Belarus bloc could be very mutually beneficial for it and the rest of Europe. It will take some time, of course, Ukraine will need some time for reform and rebuilding before fully integrating into the EU and Belarus would take even longer, even after a change of government...

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Otherwise I might have to revisit my theory that a Polish-Ukrainian Union is the easy way to pull Ukraine into the EU and Nato. Think about it,  anything that would make make Scholz and Putin pop an artery at the same time has to be a good idea.

I think in the long term, a Benelux-style union of Poland, Ukraine and potentially Belarus is definitely possible, but any kind of full-on Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth 2.0 doesn't strike me as likely. I would have to dig deeper to get to actual numbers, but it definitely seems the pattern of post-World War II norms is that independence movements often work, but countries merging is a real rarity. The obvious counter-examples (Germany and Yemen) were both split apart by outside forces and had a long prior history of being a unified country. I do vaguely recall some rumblings about Czechoslovakia possibly getting back together in the early 2000s, but I think it was just polling showing a majority in each country wouldn't be dead-set against it, not any kind of serious movement, grassroots or otherwise. There are plenty of examples of culturally distinct regions with clearly defined borders voting to stay in a larger country (e.g. Quebec voted to stay in Canada in 1980 and 1995 and Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014), but a country voting to join (or rejoin) its neighbor would be a real exception.

(I know the suggestion was probably at least partially tongue-in-cheek, but it seems relevant to a number of lines of discussion in this thread...)

Edited May 7, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[panzermartin]

29 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

A wise decision. Well, in that case you have to accept German 'dominance'. Personally I think Germany is a very respectable and noble country, which learned from it's mistakes and deserves to be forgiven. Apart from that it made the unity of Europe and the avoidance of new European wars for a large part financially possible.

Time to forgive, not forget, Panzermartin. Whether we like it or not, the European countries need each other. Unity is more important than ever.

I'm actually pretty sympathetic towards germans. I respect their way of doing things, the traditional economy of family business, and yes a country that had suffered so much is a wiser country. My friends paint me as germanophile because of my obsession with Ww2 history, the German technology, aesthetics etc since I was a kid ignoring the "evil" side of this . I have cycled all their country along the Elba and I buy tons of german Weiss beer every year:)  

But I will never tolerate people whitewashing of crimes of the Nazi period or rewriting history. And I will always be critical on their leading role in EU when it becomes profit over people. 

Things have gotten much better between us since the 2015 crisis, I'm glad we stayed and I hope for a better european future...

Now I'm bittered with all what's happening...Actually my dream was to see the past rivals, that bled each other so much in WW2, Germany and Russia coming closer together in a peaceful way. This is shattered now... 

[chuckdyke]

This generation were never concentration camp inmates or camp guards. History books have black pages equally divided amongst nations.  

[G.I. Joe]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm actually pretty sympathetic towards germans. I respect their way of doing things, the traditional economy of family business, and yes a country that had suffered so much is a wiser country. My friends paint me as germanophile because of my obsession with Ww2 history, the German technology, aesthetics etc since I was a kid ignoring the "evil" side of this . I have cycled all their country along the Elba and I buy tons of german Weiss beer every year:)  

But I will never tolerate people whitewashing of crimes of the Nazi period or rewriting history. And I will always be critical on their leading role in EU when it becomes profit over people. 

Things have gotten much better between us since the 2015 crisis, I'm glad we stayed and I hope for a better european future...

Now I'm bittered with all what's happening...Actually my dream was to see the past rivals, that bled each other so much in WW2, Germany and Russia coming closer together in a peaceful way. This is shattered now... 

Shattered for now...I still hold out hope that we may live to see a peaceful and genuinely democratic Russia of some sort. The road is just long, difficult and uncertain. But the world we live in today would seem pretty inconceivable to someone living in 1975, let alone 1939...

[TheVulture]

6 hours ago, sross112 said:

Me too!!! This is just killing me!! The Kherson area map from ISW starting about 3 or so days ago show a UA drive along the Dnepr down to the first bridge. It's been hanging there and no information coming out about it at all. Killing me!! Are the UA unhinging the Kherson defense and the Kharkiv defense simultaneously? I've just been dying to hear that they have. 

I think you are misreading the map. ISW for some reason changed the colour they were using for the river/resevoir north of the dam. Previously they had coloured it grey. As of early May they started colouring it light blue : very similar to the colour used to indicate Ukrainian offensives,  but slightly different. Go back to some of the late April maps to compare.   So I'm pretty sure that's just the river,  not an actual advance. Which is consistent with the reported fighting in the Kherson area, which is mostly  both sides trying to move the perimeter around the city by a village here or there,  but mostly static for a month. 

[Aragorn2002]

41 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Good point...I think the chances of Belarus democratizing in the near future (hopefully relatively peacefully) are pretty high. Once that happens, the center of gravity in the EU could very well tip eastward eventually. Of course, it's not a zero-sum game and the rise of a Poland-Ukraine-Belarus bloc could be very mutually beneficial for it and the rest of Europe...)

I very much doubt that. In fact that would be a very dangerous development for the peace in Europe. None of these countries have the political stability, nor the experience with democracy to make that into a success.

[G.I. Joe]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I very much doubt that. In fact that would be a very dangerous development for the peace in Europe. None of these countries have the political stability, nor the experience with democracy to make that into a success.

Perhaps...and I agree on the stability and experience with democracy in the "foreseeable" future (contradiction in terms that that is). I am thinking on a scale of decades here, not months. 2051, not 2029...

Just like when I offhandedly mentioned an African Century hundreds of pages ago, I don't expect that Nairobi and Lagos might be the new Seoul and Singapore in the 2040s, but rather the 2080s...

Edited May 7, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Aragorn2002]

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm actually pretty sympathetic towards germans. I respect their way of doing things, the traditional economy of family business, and yes a country that had suffered so much is a wiser country. My friends paint me as germanophile because of my obsession with Ww2 history, the German technology, aesthetics etc since I was a kid ignoring the "evil" side of this . I have cycled all their country along the Elba and I buy tons of german Weiss beer every year:)  

But I will never tolerate people whitewashing of crimes of the Nazi period or rewriting history. And I will always be critical on their leading role in EU when it becomes profit over people. 

Things have gotten much better between us since the 2015 crisis, I'm glad we stayed and I hope for a better european future...

Now I'm bittered with all what's happening...Actually my dream was to see the past rivals, that bled each other so much in WW2, Germany and Russia coming closer together in a peaceful way. This is shattered now... 

Good post. And yes, I think we all had hope that Putin had the common sense to keep good relations with the West, despite all the signs of the contrary. That makes us Westerners so vulnerable. We''re always believing in a happy end.

[G.I. Joe]

8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Good post. And yes, I think we all had hope that Putin had the common sense to keep good relations with the West, despite all the signs of the contrary. That makes us Westerners so vulnerable. We''re always believing in a happy end.

Fair point... And I think it's what I was getting at with the Star Trek quote last night. I do believe a relative world peace is entirely possible, but human nature is human nature and the only way to maintain peace is to enforce it through norms and mutual support. Si vis pacem, para bellum. The hard part of that is the impulse to give in to an early triumphalism and get complacent...

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Otherwise I might have to revisit my theory that a Polish-Ukrainian Union is the easy way to pull Ukraine into the EU and Nato. Think about it,  anything that would make make Scholz and Putin pop an artery at the same time has to be a good idea.

I know you're kidding , but the Germans have shown more stability in their foreign policy than your country has in the past decades. That many German politicians misjudged Putin and his intentions can also be said for many other countries and your country in particular. There's a lot of talk about 'bought' German politicians, but I miss a discussion about bought American and other politicians.

Apart from that Scholz knows how difficult it is to control the EU. Besides it always ends up with the Germans paying more than any other country to make things happen. The present mood of 'let take up Ukraine and even Belarussia into our big happy EU/NATO family' is very dangerous. First of all the EU/NATO has to force some countries (Poland, Hungary and Turkey) back into the ranks, before we can even start to think about the road to expansion. When that is done (if ever) the EU/NATO must learn to stand on it's own feet, without being depended on the US for our defence or economy. A very long road, on which lots of things can go horribly wrong.