How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Der Zeitgeist]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Excaliburs? If Ukraine has them in such numbers to target particular SPGs, then the whole Izium position suddenly turned into a horrifying deathtrap. 

Oh yes. You can even see it from space.

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Assuming Putin is slowing losing this war. And he thinks like that quote from the movie The International, 'When there’s no way out, you find a deeper way in', it's possible that he does declare 'total war' next Monday. It will be like a gloves off moment for the Russian people and booster morale and send a message to the West (who probably won't be that impressed). A declaration of war will also bring the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine a step closer. That will of course enrage the world even more, but it will also send a message, namely "Look how far we are prepared to go, so don't think a nuclear war is out of the question'.

Apart from that I think Belarussia isn't out of this war. Declaring war on Ukraine could force Lukashenko to do the same.

If he tries to get in it his own army will depose him. They have seen the this war and want no part of it. We need to up our offer and get them to depose him anyway. It just wrecks Putin completely if Lukanhesko goes down. I mean several million per officer and a passport from any western country you want would be dirt cheap if it wrapped this thing up.

[womble]

47 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I'm afraid he will not be the most popular movie character in Ukraine in the near future

But, but, but... "Zed for Zelensky", surely?!

[Zeleban]

12 minutes ago, womble said:

Но, но, но... "Зед за Зеленского", да?!

[akd]

The sun never shines in Viceland:

 

[kraze]

It's a Z with a green background and Zelenskyy translates as Greenski, so there you go

[Aragorn2002]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If he tries to get in it his own army will depose him. They have seen the this war and want no part of it. We need to up our offer and get them to depose him anyway. It just wrecks Putin completely if Lukanhesko goes down. I mean several million per officer and a passport from any western country you want would be dirt cheap if it wrapped this thing up.

For the moment that's just wishful thinking. Lukashenko survived so far and is a very ruthless dictator. Besides Putin already showed that he won't abandon him and wil do everything necessary to keep him in the saddle.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Ultradave said:

We used to do the high angle/low angle simultaneous impacts for demonstration purposes. Only 2 rounds because with a 105mm towed M102 that's all there is time for when you have to hand crank the tube up and down. And you might recall from any physics you might have had, that you can hit the same point on the ground from one gun elevation below 45deg and another above 45deg, with the same initial velocity (same charge). We used to fire the high one Quick fuse and the low one VT so that it would be obvious there were two bursts. Civilian and ROTC cadets enjoyed it at firepower demos.

I can't imagine any possible way you could fire 5 without a very modern computerized, motorized mount.

Dave

Which of course is what the german self propelled gun is. But the impressive max range, ROF, and time get in set up and then gone all probably matter more than the ideal range MRSI

[danfrodo]

What a huge saturday in Ukraine!!!!!!!!   Looks like RU Izyum salient under heavy attack, at least by artillery, and quite possibly will be cut off if they don't retreat.   A post I saw elsewhere on May 5 suggested that that was day that we'd look back on as the day the war entered a new phase of Ukrainian victories.  That fella might  be right.

I wonder how much of the current Izyum work is being done w the new western artillery, plus perhaps russian-style ammo stocks supplied by Poland, et al. 

Meanwhile, there's indications that Putler now is moving forces to try to get offensive going farther south, Popasne area.  He just keeps doubling down on his bad bets, w each bet having lower and lower objectives.  Pretty soon he'll be like hitler asking whether some specific building in stalingrad has been taken yet.  Just thinking of that murderous, monstrous killer clown Putin sweating and panicking over some map brings me joy.  He is well and truly f--ed in this war and has swarms of powerful Russian men that want him dead.  And he did it all by choice!  well done, 'genius'!

Out of likes, though many of you who've posted were deserving.

 

 

[womble]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Which of course is what the german self propelled gun is. But the impressive max range, ROF, and time get in set up and then gone all probably matter more than the ideal range MRSI

An MRSI mission is going to be the fastest mission for "that number of rounds", from first shell lofted to last, so will (if it's "enough") mean the time till you can scoot-after-shoot will be the least, which is a Good Thing in a hostile space...  I get the feeling that a system that's good at MRSI is going to be good at all the other agility factors, too. In, of course, the right hands.

Certainly, given the cooldown time after an MRSI mission, your PH-2000s won't be hanging around in their first firing positions waiting for the sclerotic Russian C3 loop to finish cycling and the CB incoming to start arriving.

[Ultradave]

7 minutes ago, womble said:

 

Certainly, given the cooldown time after an MRSI mission, your PH-2000s won't be hanging around in their first firing positions waiting for the sclerotic Russian C3 loop to finish cycling and the CB incoming to start arriving.

If it ever does. Like I said before, I’ve seen little evidence of any effective CB capability by Russia. On paper you’d think they’d have a big advantage. Another example of the lack of effective employment of their capabilities. 
 

Dave

[dan/california]

 

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Actually it seems that this attack took place east of Kharkhiv:

 

Russian positions around Kharkiv are just melting, and the coordinates above for strike on those two SPGs is halfway too Kupiyansk, . Putin's victory day present may be the complete rout of this excuse for an army...

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Which of course is what the german self propelled gun is. But the impressive max range, ROF, and time get in set up and then gone all probably matter more than the ideal range MRSI

But will 12 PH 2000 (7 from Germany, 5 from the Netherlands) really make that much of a difference. I know they represent tremendous firepower (20 rounds in 2,5 minutes), but not nearly enough to surpress the might of the Russian artillery. On the other hand 240 rounds in 2,5 minutes in a counter battery operation will certainly do some damage.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But will 12 PH 2000 (7 from Germany, 5 from the Netherlands) really make that much of a difference. I know they represent tremendous firepower, but not nearly enough to surpress the might of the Russian artillery. 

The PH 2000, and the Caesars, will make a VERY nice hammer to go with the anvil of a ~100 towed 777s. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The PH 2000, and the Caesars, will make a VERY nice hammer to go with the anvil of a ~100 towed 777s. 

Can't wait to see some drone footage of all these guns in action.

[dan/california]

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Burchak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+72010/@47.3710236,34.1884494,8z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40dd1ed2601fb603:0x44d5fd94351b1ea3!8m2!3d47.375382!4d35.3079101

Have the Ukrainians launched TWO major counter attacks?

[dan/california]

Ukrainian target practice continues around Kherson.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Burchak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+72010/@47.3710236,34.1884494,8z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40dd1ed2601fb603:0x44d5fd94351b1ea3!8m2!3d47.375382!4d35.3079101

Have the Ukrainians launched TWO major counter attacks?

UA General Staff puts the daily update on it's Facebook page, usually at 6PM CET. Heres the full version from today:

"

The operational update regarding the #russian_invasion on 18.00 on May 7, 2022.

Video (Spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Pavlo Kovalchuk) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FY8_IYJ7Mc

The seventy-third day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to a russian military invasion continues.

russian enemy continues to conduct full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.

russian enemy does not stop conducting offensive operations in the Eastern Operational Zone in order to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and maintain the land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

In the Volyn and Polissya directions, russian enemy did not take active action. Certain units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus continue to perform tasks to cover the section of the Ukrainian-belarusian border in Brest and Gomel regions. There is still a threat of rocket-bomb attacks on the infrastructure of Ukraine from the territory of the republic of belarus.

In the Seversky direction, certain units of the armed forces of the russian federation continue to carry out tasks to cover the Ukrainian-russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. In the border areas of the Kursk region engineering equipment of positions proceeds.

In the Slobozhansky direction, russian enemy focused its main efforts on preventing further advance of our troops in the direction of the state border of Ukraine. russian enemy strengthened the groups of troops of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District at the expense of reserve units. It carried out artillery shelling in the areas of Prudyanka and Slatyne.

As a result of the offensive of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russian enemy lost control over the settlement of Tsyrkuny.

russian enemy tried to launch an offensive in the direction of the settlement of Vernopilla, was unsuccessful, suffered losses and retreated.

In the Donetsk direction, russia enemy concentrated its main efforts on taking full control of Rubizhne and preparing for the offensive on the settlements of Lyman and Severodonetsk.

russian enemy continued artillery shelling and rocket-bomb attacks with the use of operational and tactical aircraft in some areas. Also, russian enemy tried to take control of the settlement of Alexandrovka, was unsuccessful.

In the Mariupol direction, russian enemy continues to block units of the Defense Forces in the area of the Azovstal plant. With the support of artillery and tank fire it conducts assault operations.

russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities in the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhia areas.

With the support of the air force, he tried to conduct offensive operations in the direction of the settlement of Poltavka in the Zaporizhia region, suffered casualties, and retreated to his former positions.

The units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the area of the settlement of Polohy, Zaporizhzhia oblast, successfully inflicted fire damage on russian enemy, destroying some of its weapons and military equipment. russian enemy personnel left their positions.

In the South Buh direction, russian enemy is defending and launching missile strikes on military and civilian infrastructure. It did not conduct offensive operations in the Kryvyi Rih direction. It shelled units of Ukrainian troops with mortars and artillery.

russian occupiers suffered significant losses in battles with units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Thus, more than 100 wounded servicemen of the airborne troops of the Armed Forces of the russian federation were found in the village of Burchak.

We keep the line! We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Together to victory!

Glory to Ukraine!"

 

Also link to the page:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Burchak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+72010/@47.3710236,34.1884494,8z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40dd1ed2601fb603:0x44d5fd94351b1ea3!8m2!3d47.375382!4d35.3079101

Have the Ukrainians launched TWO major counter attacks?

Whoa, that makes three major counter offensives by my count:  Izyum, Kharkiv NE, and now here.  Hopefully those wounded Russians will receive proper medical care ASAP and it's posted for all to see.  Best outcome is when (low morale) Russians believe they have better chance of survival by surrendering than by fighting and following orders.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Whoa, that makes three major counter offensives by my count:  Izyum, Kharkiv NE, and now here.  Hopefully those wounded Russians will receive proper medical care ASAP and it's posted for all to see.  Best outcome is when (low morale) Russians believe they have better chance of survival by surrendering than by fighting and following orders.

That's quite bizarre, there was nothing suggesting any offensive operations in the south up to this point. I'd love to have some confirmation on it, sounds too good to be true.

[Pete Wenman]

Latest update from Jomini of the West

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

That's quite bizarre, there was nothing suggesting any offensive operations in the south up to this point. I'd love to have some confirmation on it, sounds too good to be true.

Maybe it is translation issue, and it is just an intelligence report about Russian casualties? I follow Mackay because he usually produces the most intelligible transcripts/interpretations of the Ukr  military stuff. But maybe he slanted this one the wrong way.

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

That's quite bizarre, there was nothing suggesting any offensive operations in the south up to this point. I'd love to have some confirmation on it, sounds too good to be 

I think that this is one of those areas where despite the simplified front lines on the map,  neither side 100% controls the area.  There have been previous reports of Ukraine forces in supposed 'Russian' areas for short times. So this might be a temporary probe, a simple patrol, or even just partisans or civilians reporting on the presence of a Russian medical facility there.  Or maybe they've actually captured the place. 

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Maybe it is translation issue, and it is just an intelligence report about Russian casualties? I follow Mackay because he usually produces the most intelligible transcripts/interpretations of the Ukr  military stuff. But maybe he slanted this one the wrong way.

Nah, I checked with original Ukrainian report and it points to the same town, 50km north of Melitopol, around 20 south of the frontline.

Here:

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3516352,35.3218009,13579m/data=!3m1!1e3

Edit: OK, so I think it is a translation thing, the word "виявлено" means more 'were revealed" or something, not "found". So probably they got info that more then 100 Russian wounded is located in this village, which is till in Russian control.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Snake Island yesterday and today:

In addition to the now wrecked landing craft against the shore and the damage from a strike on one of the buildings above the pier, several other structures on the island are now destroyed.  Not sure how that could be accomplished with just TB2s.

It’s the buildings connected to and around the lighthouse that appear to now be destroyed.  These are not insubstantial structures:

Edited May 7, 2022 by akd