How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

They are watching the Western democracies reawaken to their military power, their basic ideological unity and a new found willingness to forego trade when the geopolitical stakes rise far enough.

We can put a pin in this right there and come back to it in about a year or two.  I think China is treating Russia like a "useful idiot" and is banking on western attention spans - which is basically how we got into this mess in the first place. 

Finally, I do not think that China sees this through a military lens, which seems to be where we automatically go.  I think they are seeing it through a much more economic and trade lens.  I also suspect it will lend to China doubling down on subversive and sideways approaches as conventional military conflict is proving itself to be very expensive and high risk.  Further, as Russia has proven very aptly, military power in the modern era is best treated like Dreadnoughts of the 19th century; a useful investment in threat, so long as they never really get used.   I think one of these videos put is best, "Russia was winning this war, right up to the point that actually started waging a real one". 

I do not for one moment that this current conflict has somehow "solved-for-China" through proxy war with Russia, that is a dangerous assumption.  Nor that China lacks "soft power", or maybe "sharp" is a better description (https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/).

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Stupid question but I can't find what was said about the Kraken unit. It seems to me that it is a unit dependent on the Azov Regiment and deployed towards Kharkiv. So it would be a national guard unit, motorized and the size of a battalion?

As I know Kraken is new-formed volunteer unit under subordination of SBU or GUR (Intelligence directorate), though it formed by Azov. But Azov in Ukraine is more wide sense than regiment. This is and political and paramilitary movement National Corps, and veteran organizations, and different organizations of work with kids and youth.

There is controversal information, former "Tornado" fighters, convicted in 2016 and pardoned by Zelensky, when the war began and they made a statement they are ready to fight and prove own innocence by own blood, also in composition of this unit. This gave to Russian media the case to say Kraken is a band of criminals and headcutters

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[acrashb]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A further salutary lesson to the PRC that the global economic structure is designed in such a way that the West has a multitude of tools to generate severe costs on challengers.

For now.  As the world re-orients, which it is in the midst of doing, and trade / financial / social / media / information structures bifurcate, we will see trade-block oriented organizations providing trade infrastructure services (e.g., insurance) in a sanctions-proof manner.

Every action generates a reaction.  The only long-term winning strategy is a nimble OODA loop in an open society with shared base-level goals.  Complacency, a hallmark of wealthy and perceptively-unthreatened societies, plays against this.

PS: I see that yet again the_capt has more or less beaten me to it.

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

1: We can put a pin in this right there and come back to it in about a year or two.  I think China is treating Russia like a "useful idiot" and is banking on western attention spans - which is basically how we got into this mess in the first place. 

2: Finally, I do not think that China sees this through a military lens, which seems to be where we automatically go.  I think they are seeing it through a much more economic and trade lens.  I also suspect it will lend to China doubling down on subversive and sideways approaches as conventional military conflict is proving itself to be very expensive and high risk.  Further, as Russia has proven very aptly, military power in the modern era is best treated like Dreadnoughts of the 19th century; a useful investment in threat, so long as they never really get used.   I think one of these videos put is best, "Russia was winning this war, right up to the point that actually started waging a real one". 

3: I do not for one moment that this current conflict has somehow "solved-for-China" through proxy war with Russia, that is a dangerous assumption.  Nor that China lacks "soft power", or maybe "sharp" is a better description (https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/).

I numbered the above to simply my response (hope that's ok!): 

1. Two things...I said "basic unity" and meant that precisely. There will be ups and downs, fractures, etc but the essential set of interests shared by NATO  has certainly been clarified. You are correct that China is using Russia which was my point about the instrumentality of the authoritarian bloc. 

2. I agree that China will adopt a more oblique approach. That's a good thing! We do not need another nose to nose destabilizing military confrontation and China vs US/Japan/Aus/etc would be *much* worse than this one so far. 

3. I agree that we haven't solved for China at all. If you ask around this town, the very first thing you hear is that Russia is an unwanted sideshow and China is the real opponent. I think that's self evident. But China has quite significant problems including severe economic issues to resolve, a demographic transition of epic proportions, flaccid political and economic returns for all the Belt and Road money spent, absolutely collapsing opinion globally, etc, etc. China has money and manpower...for now. We'll see in 20 years.

[sross112]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We can put a pin in this right there and come back to it in about a year or two.  I think China is treating Russia like a "useful idiot" and is banking on western attention spans - which is basically how we got into this mess in the first place. 

Finally, I do not think that China sees this through a military lens, which seems to be where we automatically go.  I think they are seeing it through a much more economic and trade lens.  I also suspect it will lend to China doubling down on subversive and sideways approaches as conventional military conflict is proving itself to be very expensive and high risk.  Further, as Russia has proven very aptly, military power in the modern era is best treated like Dreadnoughts of the 19th century; a useful investment in threat, so long as they never really get used.   I think one of these videos put is best, "Russia was winning this war, right up to the point that actually started waging a real one". 

I do not for one moment that this current conflict has somehow "solved-for-China" through proxy war with Russia, that is a dangerous assumption.  Nor that China lacks "soft power", or maybe "sharp" is a better description (https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/).

It was discussed awhile back in this thread how part of the thought as to why Putin actually invaded was a dwindling window of opportunity for Russia. He jumped the gun and gambled on a lot of false assumptions that led us to where we are now. I don't think China is in that same position.

China is patient and plans generationally. If anyone, China included, thought they were ready to win a shooting war with the west this conflict has probably watered down that assessment a bit. They also don't have a need to gamble with an action like this right now. There is a bit of military flexing and power posturing in their area of influence but I don't think there is a true imminent threat anytime soon of China attacking anyone. 

Taiwan is compared to Ukraine but I'd say the big difference is that China actually cares what condition Taiwan is in when it is over. They don't want to have Taipei looking like Mariupol. The big win for China is to take Taiwan as undamaged as possible so it is an economic plus and not a wasteland. There may come a time when they say screw it and don't care about the consequences but I highly doubt they will be at that point for a long time. They would be much happier to eventually assimilate it by political means and I think they are willing to take a lot of time trying to do just that.

Probably the biggest change for China that comes out of this war is that now they know they are pretty much on their own. The once menacing Russia will long be relegated to a 3rd tier military/economic/political power and doesn't help them balance or tip the scales in their favor on the world stage any more.

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, acrashb said:

PS: I see that yet again the_capt has more or less beaten me to it.

It is all good.  If I ever find the time, I need to write up a piece on the phenomenon of this thread itself.  We have a bunch of people who are largely only connected via a small wargame, but who are also a collection of expertise in a lot of different fields.  We coalesced here and have produced assessment and analysis that frankly compares to the paid stuff out there in the world.  We even became self-regulating, without - I hazard - becoming too much of an echo chamber.

And all this time no one has really posted their bona-fides.  I mean a few were already known going in, but a lot of this has really just been the quality of discussion and opinion.  Not sure what to call this "emergent analysis", "organic" but it has been really fascinating to watch and participate in.

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Welcome to page 666 of the discussion, thus making this the thread of the beast.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10781189/Russian-state-media-says-Satanic-seal-dark-forces-Ukraine-propaganda-claim.html

Edited May 4, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, acrashb said:

For now.  As the world re-orients, which it is in the midst of doing, and trade / financial / social / media / information structures bifurcate, we will see trade-block oriented organizations providing trade infrastructure services (e.g., insurance) in a sanctions-proof manner.

Every action generates a reaction.  The only long-term winning strategy is a nimble OODA loop in an open society with shared base-level goals.  Complacency, a hallmark of wealthy and perceptively-unthreatened societies, plays against this.

PS: I see that yet again the_capt has more or less beaten me to it.

I agree but those reactions have costs and are not simple to carry out. The most obvious example is the staying power of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. People looking at recent declines in dollar usage say "Aha! It's happening!" but don't note that most of the decline in usage is merely transferred to other currencies strongly linked to the US dollar and China can't really change it because PRC wants to have complete control over its own currency for domestic political purposes. 

In short, China has at least as many structural constraints as we do.

 

[Haiduk]

Russian helicopter which was shot down 24th of Feb over Kyiv reservoir during the raid on Hostomel, is recovered from the water. Looks like this was Mi-28

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10781189/Russian-state-media-says-Satanic-seal-dark-forces-Ukraine-propaganda-claim.html

zein means penis in hebrew, but let them keep at it

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Taiwan is compared to Ukraine but I'd say the big difference is that China actually cares what condition Taiwan is in when it is over. They don't want to have Taipei looking like Mariupol. The big win for China is to take Taiwan as undamaged as possible so it is an economic plus and not a wasteland.

That is a really important point.  In many ways China in 2022, looks a lot like late 19th century US.  Its expansion is largely economic, not military or colonial.  China has made a lot if underhanded deals, but they have not overtly invaded anyone as far as I know since those border clashes with Vietnam back in 79; hell, our track record in the West is worse than that.

Everyone in the mainstream seems worried that China will take this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan; however, I think it will be far more subtle and smart than an open invasion (please god, we have had enough).

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

In short, China has at least as many structural constraints as we do.

And another really good point.  China is not a rogue power, like Russia.  It is playing by a set of rules that it wants to master and hold the pen on the re-write so it can negotiate from strength for the next hundred.  This means negotiation both externally and internally, this is how the "grown ups" have to play the game.

My honest bet is that China will continue to attack the Black Elephant in the room, the internal divisions within western democracies, the US in particular.  If we cannot get over ourselves, I think we are in serious trouble in 20 years.    

[Combatintman]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Further, as Russia has proven very aptly, military power in the modern era is best treated like Dreadnoughts of the 19th century; a time machine ...

His Majesty's Ship Dreadnought was launched in 1906 and commissioned into the Royal Navy later that year.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Combatintman said:

His Majesty's Ship Dreadnought was launched in 1906 and commissioned into the Royal Navy later that year.

Oh you just gotta be like that...fine pre-dreadnoughts of the 19th century.  

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

His Majesty's Ship Dreadnought was launched in 1906 and commissioned into the Royal Navy later that year.

lay off.  He IS an officer after all.  You have to expect this sort of thing.  

[DMS]

3 hours ago, Suleyman said:

Although I know Russians as well as other major powers commit atrocious war crimes on innocent people during war, it does seem off that they would almost brag about it to their family. I don't know if those phone calls are real, but I know there are war criminals on the Russian side that commit evil acts. If those phone calls are real, it means there's psychos enlisted within their ranks. Which is not good for anyone, like how crazy do you have to be to brag about it to your family? Disgusting. 

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

Edited May 4, 2022 by DMS

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

My honest bet is that China will continue to attack the Black Elephant in the room, the internal divisions within western democracies, the US in particular.  If we cannot get over ourselves, I think we are in serious trouble in 20 years.    

My attempt at pith on this topic is always to opine that the American Century (now in the dance remix version) will not die of natural causes, it will commit suicide. I think we just backed away from the ledge for the moment but time will tell.

[Phantom Captain]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

and after the stuff coming out from Bucha, none of this seems far-fetched.  Why is it so hard to believe they'd talk like this after what they actually did?

After seeing the looting and destruction of Fredericksburg after the battle in 1862, one of General Jackson's aides asked him, point blank, "what's to be done about all this sir?".

Jackson answered succinctly, "Kill 'em.  Kill 'em all."

Apropos.  

Edited May 4, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My attempt at pith on this topic is always to opine that the American Century (now in the dance remix version) will not die of natural causes, it will commit suicide. I think we just backed away from the ledge for the moment but time will tell.

I am pretty sure Lincoln said something similar.

Well pass it along that a lot of us bet on that horse, and we are well and truly screwed if it jumps off a cliff.

[BlackMoria]

24 minutes ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

No, Russia is being judged by it actions, not what it says.  We have a saying in the west.  "Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck.... therefore it is a duck."   The acts of Russia in Bucha, Maruipol, all over Ukraine are in full display for the world to see.  Ergo, if Russia troops acts like uncouth, uncivilized barbarians, we are within our rights to call them out for it.

[keas66]

Must be hard to be a Russian  and   watching this thread  DMS  . Your attempts to rationalize  or explain away the behaviors of your countrymen is a Herculean task indeed - I don't envy you it .

Edited May 4, 2022 by keas66

[TheVulture]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Everyone in the mainstream seems worried that China will take this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan; however, I think it will be far more subtle and smart than an open invasion (please god, we have had enough).

This is more your area of expertise than mine, but I was under the impression that China isn't close (yet) to having the capability to invade Taiwan at the moment. They have neither the navy, the air force or the operational experience to pull off an opposed landing across the 100+ miles Taiwan strait against a modern force equipped with plenty of land and ship based anti-ship missiles, never mind the issue of logistical support for a extended operation over that strait. Even assuming the US doesn't chose to get involved.

As I understand it, until about 2010 the Chinese air force's mission was pretty much exclusively a land-based defence of Chinese territory, and it wasn't until circa 2010 that any effort was made to being developing the capability to project force over water (and Chinese military pilots weren't allowed to fly over water until some time after that, but I can't remember when).

Even when they've built the navy to be able to do this kind of landing, I believe it was you who said earlier in the thread that having equipment isn't the same as having a capability...

[Suleyman]

48 minutes ago, DMS said:

OMG, how men can be so naive. Random dude reads text, everyone: "oh, it's a stunning truth!" I remember CNN video with that "phone call intercepts". 1-st episode: "we raped 16 year girl" (to woman, must be "wife"), 2-nd: "we eat dogs", 3-rd: "I hate their medals, we suffer here" (realistic one!). In 3-rd episode actor even didn't try to imitate Russian accent, must be from Poland or Baltic. 1-st world war British propaganda was more sophisticated. You believe in everything you are fed, it's amazing. And that is wargaming forum, where people read books about WWII and must have higher erudition. 

And you compose theories about broken Russian nature, based on this!

Relax bro. I’m not saying every Russian soldier is evil, most of them aren’t. But there is documented war crimes. I never said the phone calls are real but if they are it’s disgusting, I don’t go off those. Actually, a lot of western countries in support of Ukraine have committed atrocities in other regions of the world but I don’t bring those up because it’s not related to Ukraine.

I go off actual pictures/videos of dead and the analysis behind it. I understand that there will be info wars it is a war tactic, but Russian soldiers have done evil things not only in Ukraine, but in other conflicts as well, and there is evidence. The reason why they highlight the Russian crimes is because they are the aggressors in this war, which makes them wrong.

With all due respect, some Ukrainian units committed crimes as well. That doesn’t make them the wrong side in the conflict though, because they are defending their nation. (Mutilating POWs is the main one that stands out)
 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Suleyman

[Vic4]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice.  He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day.  His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into.  We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side.  If Russia were to be driven into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing.

Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me.  I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid. 

@The_Capt

No doubt that this is a sobering and disheartening assessment, but perhaps there is a potential upshot.

When this conflict presumably concludes with Russia entirely in thrall to China and isolated from the West, wouldn’t a likely result be that their immediate malignant intent will be diverted to China?

Given that Russia seems to be primarily motivated by (a) delusions of grandeur and (b) envy/resentment, it seems that most of their energy at that point would be directed towards who they view as their immediate oppressor (China) and to the extent that their designs against the West will fall into a tertiary status. This could be advantageous to the West as China will constantly be having to look over it’s shoulder and keep Russia in line, while Russia’s immediate goal will be to throw off the Chinese yoke. Thoughts on this? Appreciate your insight. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by Vic4

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@The_Capt

No doubt that this is a sobering and disheartening assessment, but perhaps there is a potential upshot.

When this conflict presumably concludes with Russia entirely in thrall to China and isolated from the West, wouldn’t a likely result be that their immediate malignant intent will be diverted to China?

Given that Russia seems to be primarily motivated by (a) delusions of grandeur and (b) envy/resentment, it seems that most of their energy at that point would be directed towards who they view as their immediate oppressor (China) and to the extent that their designs against the West will fall into a tertiary status. This could be advantageous to the West as China will constantly be having to look over it’s shoulder and keep Russia in line, while Russia’s immediate goal will be to throw off the Chinese yoke. Thoughts on this? Appreciate your insight. 

Until China grows to be dependent on Russia to a reasonable degree, there isn't much Russia can do I think.

What might happen in the aftermath of this war though, is Russia desperately trying to keep the rest of it's influence zone - I'm thinking Caucasus and Central Asia. Messing with Eastern Europe won't be possible anymore (perhaps with the exception of Belarus), but those countries are still game.

[sburke]

45 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

No, Russia is being judged by it actions, not what it says.  We have a saying in the west.  "Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck.... therefore it is a duck."   The acts of Russia in Bucha, Maruipol, all over Ukraine are in full display for the world to see.  Ergo, if Russia troops acts like uncouth, uncivilized barbarians, we are within our rights to call them out for it.

exactly.  It is naive to think that folks capable of doing what was done in Bucha aren't capable of these kinds of calls.  What you think they commit those atrocities and then call mom for mother's day saying they wish they could have stolen some flowers for mom while executing civilians?