How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'd sooner get a root canal than listen to anything this scumbag has to say.

Amen.

[womble]

So the Moskva wasn't even operating in a task force set up. That's... daring. And explains why she needed assistance from civilian shipping.

It crossed my mind that the Turkish tanker might've been conducting replenishment operations with the cruiser, but on second thought, I'd suppose you need/want a "proper oiler" to crossdeck bunkerage at sea. Even if that was the reason the tanker was "on hand", it wouldn't have been conducting refuelling during a storm, but it might've been close, intending to start once the sea state permitted.

[SteelRain]

I hope the Russian Army has provided enough kits for the coming offensive in the east.

 

source:

 

[Taranis]

14 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

I hope the Russian Army has provided enough kits for the coming offensive in the east.

 

source:

 

I rather see them hanging plastic garden chairs since even the iron fences, they don't have enough for their tanks . Or wooden pallets since there is lots of wood in russia. Next step russian wood tanks ?

And bonus ! The wood floats unlike their cruiser

Edited April 15, 2022 by Taranis

[Saberwander]

19 minutes ago, womble said:

So the Moskva wasn't even operating in a task force set up. That's... daring. And explains why she needed assistance from civilian shipping.

It crossed my mind that the Turkish tanker might've been conducting replenishment operations with the cruiser, but on second thought, I'd suppose you need/want a "proper oiler" to crossdeck bunkerage at sea. Even if that was the reason the tanker was "on hand", it wouldn't have been conducting refuelling during a storm, but it might've been close, intending to start once the sea state permitted.

I think those reports of Turkish ship taking on survivors are rumours. Turkey officially said it did not happen. I feel we would have received more information about it if it was true.

I don't think they need to refuel at sea when in a small sea like Black Sea. 

[kraze]

54 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'm not thinking about Russian internal narrative, nothing they do will impact that. But internationally it will worsen their stance even more, support for supplying Ukraine with arms will rise even more. As horrible as Bucha is, for many it's just some few hundred ppl, nothing to worry about, maybe it's staged etc. Going after merchant ships Kriegsmarine style is a different pair of socks altogether. Think Lusitania in WW2. This might be especially important vis a vis countries outside of the collective West.

They don't need to. They already mined the hell out of approaches and warned all ships to not ever approach Ukraine since day 1. So africans dying is not a question of if but when. Since that oil and gas will be bought and the war will keep on going.

[Huba]

True that de-mining would be a first step to unblocking Odessa, and UA does not have any capability for it AFAIK. It might however be a large scale debut of drone ships/ underwater vehicles. Already the last package of support from US includes some Unmanned Coast Defense Vessels, whatever those are.

[TheVulture]

There's already been a lot of talk over the last month about the possibly disastrous state of Egypt's economy and political systems as a consequence of the war - Egypt depended heavily on Russia and Ukraine for both wheat and cooking oil (see charts), so prices have gone up drastically there with Russia basically stopping exports and Ukraine being unable to either.

In Egypt it was already the case that ~65% of child mortality was linked to malnutrition, and one of the countries in the world in the higher overall malnutrition brackets, and it's probably getting a lot worse in the immediate future.

[c3k]

A good video from Military History Visualized about the oft-mentioned end of the tank due to ATGMs seen in this conflict.

 

[Taranis]

A woman watches soldiers from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) enter a building during an operation to arrest suspected Russian collaborators in Kharkiv, Thursday April 14, 2022. FELIPE DANA / AP

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

There's already been a lot of talk over the last month about the possibly disastrous state of Egypt's economy and political systems as a consequence of the war - Egypt depended heavily on Russia and Ukraine for both wheat and cooking oil (see charts), so prices have gone up drastically there with Russia basically stopping exports and Ukraine being unable to either.

In Egypt it was already the case that ~65% of child mortality was linked to malnutrition, and one of the countries in the world in the higher overall malnutrition brackets, and it's probably getting a lot worse in the immediate future.

Egypt was the single most important source of wheat in Med region for millennia. How the world has changed...

[db_zero]

If and when this war ends and Ukraine retains ports and access to the sea, Germany or Sweden should sell Ukraine one of their excellent diesel subs. 
 

One or 2 of these would make life hell for the Russian navy. Looks like the only Ukrainian sub was a crappy old Foxtrot captured by Russia in 2014.

[db_zero]

41 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

There's already been a lot of talk over the last month about the possibly disastrous state of Egypt's economy and political systems as a consequence of the war - Egypt depended heavily on Russia and Ukraine for both wheat and cooking oil (see charts), so prices have gone up drastically there with Russia basically stopping exports and Ukraine being unable to either.

In Egypt it was already the case that ~65% of child mortality was linked to malnutrition, and one of the countries in the world in the higher overall malnutrition brackets, and it's probably getting a lot worse in the immediate future.

Africa is going to see major famine. The poor all around the world are going to get priced out.

The developed world will secure its food supplies first and can afford the higher prices.

Going to see major unrest all over and governments fall.

Arab Spring 2.0

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[Saberwander]

22 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Africa is going to see major famine. The poor all around the world are going to get priced out.

The developed world will secure its food supplies first and can afford the higher prices.

Going to see major unrest all over and governments fall.

Arab Spring 2.0

I've read that a lot of these estimates are not taking into account that most of wheat is not exported, so the loss of Ukrainian or Russian exports is not that large in the grand scheme of things. Apparently India already produced more than will be lost by Ukraine being unable to supply food.

India also has multiple harvests per year and can cover the gap. 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Huba said:

This is a good thought I think. UA said that Moskva was hit by 2 missiles, not that they only launched 2 against a whole group of ships. Pure speculation of course, but it would make sense to launch as big a strike as possible.

I don't know is this true or not, but there was information, that before a war we had only three missiles. All other, produced before 2020, were shot for tests. New pary of missiles have to be produced and adopted to service with first Neptune battalion set of new version in April. I don't know how the war could affect these palns 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Russians can't be sure how many there are, and after Moskva I don't think they will venture into range ever again. When UK/ other missiles arrive the deal will be sealed.

[db_zero]

33 minutes ago, Saberwander said:

I've read that a lot of these estimates are not taking into account that most of wheat is not exported, so the loss of Ukrainian or Russian exports is not that large in the grand scheme of things. Apparently India already produced more than will be lost by Ukraine being unable to supply food.

India also has multiple harvests per year and can cover the gap. 

There may be more to it. I’m not the expert on the subject but I follow it a bit as I’m an investor in many markets.

Wheat is sold in the futures markets and and supply disruptions causes prices to increase and that’s the issue. Many people are living day to day and can barely get by so any increase in prices means they can’t afford it or have to get by on less.

Also the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof and farmers will have to pass the cost down to consumers. Farmers in some areas may plant less due to the sharp increase in fertilizer costs. The war has caused a disruption to the supply of potash.

India may have a great harvest but will they be able to get the wheat to where it’s needed? The whole supply chain and shipping issues may come into play.

There is also some concerns about the ability of FCI to store all the excess wheat.

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

There may be more to it. I’m not the expert on the subject but I follow it a bit as I’m an investor in many markets.

Wheat is sold in the futures markets and and supply disruptions causes prices to increase and that’s the issue. Many people are living day to day and can barely get by so any increase in prices means they can’t afford it or have to get by on less.

Also the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof and farmers will have to pass the cost down to consumers. Farmers in some areas may plant less due to the sharp increase in fertilizer costs. 

India may have a great harvest but will they be able to get the wheat to where it’s needed? The whole supply chain and shipping issues may come into play.

I agree that higher food prices might cause political unrest in many countries, but I think you overlook two things:

1: Many of the world's poorest (in Africa mostly) live off the land and grow their own food. They are more vulnerable to bad harvests due to weather, not so much to international food market shocks. Relief organisations such as WFP will have to pay more to fight famines, but they also have set up store houses where they buy staple foods in bulk when the price is low, so they have a buffer at least.

2: In many developing countries, food is heavily subsidised already, for example in India. Same with fuel prices. Higher market prices will likely lead to governments raising the subsidies in order to prevent revolts. So higher prices may cause effects down the line, but I doubt it will be as simple as higher Ukraine wheat prices -> famine.

[db_zero]

11 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I agree that higher food prices might cause political unrest in many countries, but I think you overlook two things:

1: Many of the world's poorest (in Africa mostly) live off the land and grow their own food. They are more vulnerable to bad harvests due to weather, not so much to international food market shocks. Relief organisations such as WFP will have to pay more to fight famines, but they also have set up store houses where they buy staple foods in bulk when the price is low, so they have a buffer at least.

2: In many developing countries, food is heavily subsidised already, for example in India. Same with fuel prices. Higher market prices will likely lead to governments raising the subsidies in order to prevent revolts. So higher prices may cause effects down the line, but I doubt it will be as simple as higher Ukraine wheat prices -> famine.

Ukraine not only produced wheat but also potash and fertilizer prices have gone through the roof. I recently saw a report that manure sales boomed and sellers are sold out.

A lot of the fear is based on the supply disruptions that took place resulting in the Arab Spring. Countries like Yemen were highly dependent on Ukraine for wheat. There may be supply from countries like India but can they afford to pay the higher prices.
 

One thing is for sure wheat and fertilizer has spiked we’ll just have to wait and see. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Ukraine not only produced wheat but also potash and fertilizer prices have gone through the roof.

A lot of the fear is based on the supply disruptions that took place resulting in the Arab Spring. 
 

One thing is for sure wheat and fertilizer has spiked we’ll just have to wait and see. 

We basically agree.

Fuel prices have also exploded, which also will add to the final cost of food. But the world economy is not 100 pct free market. World governments are watching this, and while they are not always very competent or benign, they do realise they are in trouble if they let the poor starve.

Just look at what happened in France with the Yellow Vests movement - that started by rising fuel costs.

 

[The Steppenwulf]

10 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Ukraine not only produced wheat but also potash and fertilizer prices have gone through the roof.

A lot of the fear is based on the supply disruptions that took place resulting in the Arab Spring. 
 

One thing is for sure wheat and fertilizer has spiked we’ll just have to wait and see. 

I know it's not third world but FWIW the price of fertiliser in UK has been rising 10% month on month. It's an underlying factor in a huge inflation ramp along with the more commonly known price hikes such as cost of a barrel of oil. I think also UK at least relies on pest control chemicals from Ukraine, without these, yields will be impacted pushing up prices further for the consumer due to supply/demand.

Edited April 15, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Commanderski]

This is just too funny not to post...

[db_zero]

26 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

We basically agree.

Fuel prices have also exploded, which also will add to the final cost of food. But the world economy is not 100 pct free market. World governments are watching this, and while they are not always very competent or benign, they do realise they are in trouble if they let the poor starve.

Just look at what happened in France with the Yellow Vests movement - that started by rising fuel costs.

 

It’s going to be an interesting balancing act. Governments running massive deficits, raising interest rates from basically zero to combat out of control inflation, while increasing defense spending, subsidizing industries and feeding the rest of the world to keep the pot from boiling over.

The global safe haven and holder of the global reserve currency the USD has a Fed that has signaled it will raise rates aggressively to combat inflation and will unload 95 billion a month in MBS off its books for the foreseeable future.

Its going to get interesting…

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[panzermartin]

Famine in Africa will mean another huge refugee wave that Europe will have to handle. Could be a tsunami this time...

 

[chuckdyke]

Next European holiday: I will pay a visit to the "F#%k Yourself Museum" on my bucketlist. A little more colorful than the 'Nuts Museum' in Belgium.