How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maquisard manqué]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61071243

Pretty harrowing. I know it’s not new allegations but for the BBC to put it up i take it as verified and credible.

[Kraft]

6 minutes ago, womble said:

(surely Germany has some reserves to draw on, even if depleted; it shouldn't take long to bring Russia to its knees).

There are prediction models from economists that say it would not at all result in the catastrophic way this is always painted in.

As I remember, SWIFT & Co was also called atomic bomb of finance, that would bring doom to all stocks and cause instant economic recession,.. yet here we are. 

[womble]

20 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Listen to Putins hour long ramble about the West and old USSR before he gave the Invasion order.

Unless he's actually going to light the blue touch paper on all those ICBMs and Kindzhals, his "rambling" has been rendered moot by the results of the invasion of Ukraine. Not only do we now have proof that he didn't have the conventional throw weight to act on that rambling to start with, he's now pissed half that effective strength up the wall. The Baltics could probably defend themselves against what's left without any outside help, but they wouldn't have to, given how he's also solidified the will of NATO that could have been considered fractured before.

Sure, wars start through miscalculation, but it will take additional miscalculation to make this one global. Messing up an attempt to escalate opens up that possibility. Most of our leaders are still working very hard to avoid nuclear armageddon, for which I, personally, am grateful.

[panzermartin]

32 minutes ago, Kraft said:

If you think this war is just about Ukraine you are mistaken. 

Listen to Putins +1 hour long ramble about the West and old USSR before he gave the Invasion order.

This is not some smart geopolitical game to strenghen Russia that went a little too far.

This is about restoring old borders, regardless of the cost, militarily or economically to Russia. Most Analyist thought Putin would not attack, because it makes no sense - from their POV.

But Putin sees the world from a different lense and in his mind this mad decision was the way to go and has been planned for a long time.

But Ukraine was his chance because NATO wasn't (officially) involved in there yet. I also think his speech targeted russian audience. 

I seriously doubt about the will of Putin or even the most disillusioned officer around him that crossing the border of a NATO country is a good idea. Not going to happen even if they had captured Kiev. And now with those losses....? They have admitted they can't win a war with them. And now despite the continuous flow of western arms, getting larger and more beefy by each day, the bloody sanctions etc they don't even move their little finger beyond but mostly bark to Finland, Sweden, Poland and so on. 

To go for a World War you need allies, you don't get in by wondering alone in bad neighborhood and get shocked by the sanctions they impose on you. China doesn't seem willing to be the Japan of 1941, unless there is a lot under the hood we can't see. 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by panzermartin

[Kraft]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

snip

How would a policy of neutrality towards Ukraine have enabled it to defend against Russia?

2014+ Ukrainian Army was slaughtered by Putin.

Western support built what is working today. Without western Intel, all these ambushes would not be happening. Without western financing, no Ukrainian drones would fly, no NVGs, no nothing. Without western leadership the Ukrainian army would still fight with Soviet doctrine and lose.

What we are seeing right now is a result NOT of Minsk and Putin appeasement but of US/UK policy to bolster Ukraine in case of evident Russian aggression, despite concern of "worsening relation with Russia".

He does not care about economics. He does not care about his or our People. He cares about the past and everyone west of him is an enemy complicit in that "greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century" to quote Putin himself.

Neutrality towards Ukraine would have in fact put Putin exactly where he wanted to be.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Kraft

[slysniper]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I can recall two units of 58th CAA - 136th separate motor-rifle brigade (tank battalion with T-90A, participated in invasion on Donbas in 2014). 

19th motor-rifle division. It had T-90A, when it was a brigade in tank battalion, but I havn't info about current T-90A number and sharing among MR regiments - this division hasn't tank regiment.  

All BTGs of 58th CAA are Zaporizhzhia and east axis

1st tank regiment of 2nd Guard MRD has at least one battalion on T-90A and even first party of T-90M, but I don't know either this battalion participated in invasion or not.

Also T-90A were in 20th Guard MRD. Division has separate tank battalion instead tank regiment, but again there is no information about their T-90A in Ukraine. 

 

Thanks , for what you can share

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The same lack of BMP-3s on the list pairs with the lack of T-90s.  It could be that these units are ones deployed along the Baltic border or they are being held back "in case of emergency" around Moscow.  There is also the possibility that the units with this equipment performed better in Ukraine than others and therefore retained more.  Personally, I don't buy that.  Performance across the board has not shown any unit capable of limiting its losses.

Steve

 

Well, with sources saying they had 750 - 1000 T 90's  manufactured.

I would think they have a decent amount there in some formations.

 

So it makes me wonder, since they might be the only unit that could survive some of the ATGM  type weapons. If this could be a factor.

Or Are they holding key units from the conflict so far.

I sure dont know, but it seems unusual in the stats.

 

The BMP-3 numbers might not be that far off.

they are showing 65 lost compared to 176 bmp-2s.

I would think that would somewhat match percentages of what might be in the field.

 

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, slysniper said:

Well, with sources saying they had 750 - 1000 T 90's  manufactured.

Russian wiki says about 625 T-90A (including 120 T-90 mod.1992 with cast turret), but for unknown data.

But according this article in 2019 Russian ground forces had only 123 T-90A in service: 

https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2020-02-20/1_1082_tanks.html

Edited April 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[db_zero]

Deleted

Edited April 11, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian wiki says about 625 T-90A (including 120 T-90 mod.1992 with cast turret), but for unknown data.

But according this article in 2019 Russian ground forces had only 123 T-90A in service: 

https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2020-02-20/1_1082_tanks.html

Some T-90As ended up in Syria. Some number were returned to factory for upgrade to T-90M.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Possible chemical attack? Has anyone heard about this from other sources?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1594611/russia-chemical-weapons-ukraine-latest-vladimir-putin-mariupol

Heavily discussed a page or two ago. Everybody seems to be waiting for firmer info.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Some number were returned to factory for upgrade to T-90M.

From 10 to 50, no more.

I suppose, rest T-90A can be sold as T-90S/SA, or maybe author have wrong data. But I also can't find any information about last years T-90A supply. Looks like all Russians efforts were targeted to upgrading of T-72B/B3 to T-72B3M and T-80BV to T-80BVM

Edited April 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[The Steppenwulf]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Possible chemical attack? Has anyone heard about this from other sources?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1594611/russia-chemical-weapons-ukraine-latest-vladimir-putin-mariupol

Yeh BBC reported it on Newsnight in past hour. To me it sounded like chlorine gas attack from symptoms that were related.

[Haiduk]

Just now, dan/california said:

Heavily discussed a page or two ago. Everybody seems to be waiting for firmer info.

Azov reported 3 poisned, but not critical. Ammunition was dropped from UAV

[dan/california]

Just found this.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Maintenance question for you tankers. There appears to be a lot of rust on the rifling of the BMP barrel. Is that normal? Could it just be from being abandoned for a couple weeks or would it be indicative of long term poor maintenance? I know you don't want rust in the rifling of your small arms but maybe it is different on the larger guns (wouldn't think so but have to ask to know for certain). Thanks.

[chuckdyke]

8 hours ago, Lethaface said:

He chucked some dykes.

The first Van Dyke was named Van Lesbian he became a painter for the English Royals, and they advised to change his name. As he was Flemish, he chose something associated with the Low Countries. So, it became Van Dyke since then a dyke became a synonym for a lesbian in the English language. From my book titled 'Where the Bullsh*t Flies.'

[MikeyD]

I think when barrels get hot they tend to cook off any coating on them - if there is a coating. A bare steel gun barrel exposed to the elements is... well... bare steel. And heating of the barrel speeds up oxidation.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

This action also speaks to how desperate the Russians have finally become in their efforts to capture Mariupol. The Russian units invested there were on their knees almost as much as Azov. Sheer desperation - I'd bet they were on the verge of failing! 

Spetsnaz units have reportedly refused to fight.

 

While I am not saying that now is the time, 'intervention' can take many forms. With Putin crossing a line that 'even Hitler' did not dare cross, the US must now shield innocent civilians in key population centers from barbaric use of WMD. All entirely defensive and humanitarian, of course....

That ^ line on the map is 100 miles. That's roughly the antiaircraft range of a Patriot battery. (Antimissile range is shorter). 

Draw circles with that radius around Lviv, Kyiv, Vinnitsa, Odessa, Dnipro and, say, Poltava (west of Kharkiv -- don't want to go right up to the frontier, not yet).

Units would bring their own security, including advanced EW capabilities. Probably their own defensive air cover too, based in Poland.

Voila, you've got your no fly zone.

Have a nice day RuAF. Enjoy crapping your pants each time you take off.

[chuckdyke]

Ukraine needs aircover I know it is stating the obvious. The terrain is steppe Russian armour will be sitting ducks if the Russian air force is found wanting. NATO the time to strike is now, time to call Putin's bluff. 

[Sir Lancelot]

itv reported that Ukrainian forces expect Mariupol to fall within 24hrs. The defenders are running out of ammunition.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-11/russia-likely-to-ramp-up-attacks-on-east-ukraine-in-coming-days-zelenskyy-warns

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:

itv reported that Ukrainian forces expect Mariupol to fall within 24hrs. The defenders are running out of ammunition.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-04-11/russia-likely-to-ramp-up-attacks-on-east-ukraine-in-coming-days-zelenskyy-warns

[Sir Lancelot]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It's heartbreaking... after 6 weeks and it's all about to end so tragically.

[panzermartin]

I don't know, what did you expect? They are surrounded since week 1. That marvel avengers will come to the rescue? 

[Machor]

Here's Eduard Basurin, spokesman for the 'people's militia' of DPR, stating that they'll need to use chemicals to dislodge Azov in Mariupol:

 

[Fenris]

Couple of tweets on the cheery situation in the motherland