How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Der Zeitgeist]

On the pro-Russian side, there's some stories going around that the satellite imagery showing the bodies in Bucha might be fake. This is mostly based on this "analysis" from "Southfront", claiming that none of Maxar's satellite had their orbits going over the region during the dates mentioned on the pictures: https://southfront.org/more-evidence-more-doubts-about-bucha-massacre/ .

I looked into that, and as expected, it's a poorly-made fake counting on people being too lazy to check the satellite tracks themselves, which can be easily done by using tools like this one: https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php

On each of the dates, March 21 & March 19, Maxar's satellites (specifically WorldView-1 & GeoEye-1) passed directly over Kyiv.

[LongLeftFlank]

29 minutes ago, domfluff said:

I've long thought it would be a good idea to have static, non-functional vehicles as objectives. Scuds are a really good example - totally out of scope for CM-scale scenarios, but as scenario dressing that would be excellent.

That's simple enough to mod up out of a suitable unarmed vehicle not otherwise in the TOE, for those with the wireframing skills (and the time lol). You then assign it as a Destroy (Abandoned/Immobile) or Touch (wreck, capture) objective.

The effect would be visual only though, so it will only have the cover profile and protection of the underlying AFV.

(Phew, an actual CM-related post!)

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, akd said:

Russians: Let’s setup up our battery here!

Ukrainians: Ni.

 

This why Ukraianian artilelry now works mostly by platoons or even by 1-2 pieces, but rare by whole battery. Maybe this give less firepower, but you get flexibillity and survivability. And the tons of steel per square kilomiter compensate with more precise work due to drone usage, special sotware for artillery firing calculations and personnel training.

But working by platoons and by individual guns requires additional spotters and a drone in each platoon, so platoon leaders and even gun comamnders should have spotter skills in full volume. Also at least each platoon should have some artillery equipment like artillery compass. For example in Russian artiillery all this, like in Soviet army have only battery control platoon, so they have limited capabilities to work by lesser units.  

Though,  for the case of situation on the video, the full-battery salvo should be better 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[domfluff]

It doesn't necessarily require you having less firepower, as long as that same firepower can be distributed and coordinated correctly. It's a software problem, essentially.

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Nicdain]

50 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

On the pro-Russian side, there's some stories going around that the satellite imagery showing the bodies in Bucha might be fake. This is mostly based on this "analysis" from "Southfront", claiming that none of Maxar's satellite had their orbits going over the region during the dates mentioned on the pictures: https://southfront.org/more-evidence-more-doubts-about-bucha-massacre/ .

I looked into that, and as expected, it's a poorly-made fake counting on people being too lazy to check the satellite tracks themselves, which can be easily done by using tools like this one: https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php

On each of the dates, March 21 & March 19, Maxar's satellites (specifically WorldView-1 & GeoEye-1) passed directly over Kyiv.

Following what Der Zeitgeist said, I checked Maxar satellite imagery search website (https://discover.digitalglobe.com). Between February 28th and March 31st, there have been 4 overflights by Worldview 2 and 3 and Geoeye 1 very high resolution satellites over Bucha (on February 28th, March 18th, 21st and 31st). So plenty of images to check, contrary to what Southfront claims

 

[Haiduk]

Havoc and devastation in Bucha. "Spiegel" photo.

[Taranis]

The same with a soldier.  6th april 2022. FELIPE DANA / AP

[Haiduk]

[TheVulture]

Something's on fire near Kherson - possibly the airport. Again.

 

 

[kraze]

Reading into and debunking russian propaganda is just as full of sense as doing the same for the ravings of a mad hobo. Not worth it.

[Haiduk]

Just a bright ginger cat inside all this devastation... Apocalypse now.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

Reading into and debunking russian propaganda is just as full of sense as doing the same for the ravings of a mad hobo. Not worth it.

I think it's worth it. The Russian disinformation strategy is to produce as much bull**** as possible and just pump it into the internet. Each fake claim is not that hard to debunk, but the sheer volume creates confusion and overwhelms people. If people stop fact checking their lies, the Russians basically succeeded in their goal.

[Combatintman]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Just a bright ginger cat inside all this devastation... Apocalypse now.

Good to see the media focusing on the core issues.  Jesus wept etc ...

[Haiduk]

 

[c3k]

1 hour ago, domfluff said:

It doesn't necessarily require you having less firepower, as long as that same firepower can be distributed and coordinated correctly. It's a software problem, essentially.

 

(The above references the video of the Russian artillery unit being shelled, slowly, as they attempt to set up and the Ukraine solution of distributing their firing units into small 1 or 2 gun units for survivability.)

Software is important, but most important, is communications.

Let's say the Ukrainian artillery has a 4x 2 gun units, separated. The goal is to get salvoes of 8 shots to drop on the target simultaneously.

If the shooters all have separate drones, how do they coordinate which drone to use for targeting? 

They need a way to prioritize targets that are found by roving drones. What unit operates the drone, determines targets, determines shooters is a real issue. (If each shooter has their own drone, again, that shooter needs to communicate with the other shooters...and convince them it is a target worth them risking exposure and counterfires for them to engage...at a time convenient to all the other shooters.)

Next is the problem of which target point each shooter will engage. 

How many shots per target point? What will the next target point be?

The final part, figuring out the exact timing of the shoot for simultaneous effects, is reasonably simple.

Coordinating dispersed units is actually quite difficult.

It all hinges on robust comms and a pre-arranged system of targeting.

[Saberwander]

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

On the pro-Russian side, there's some stories going around that the satellite imagery showing the bodies in Bucha might be fake. This is mostly based on this "analysis" from "Southfront", claiming that none of Maxar's satellite had their orbits going over the region during the dates mentioned on the pictures: https://southfront.org/more-evidence-more-doubts-about-bucha-massacre/ .

I looked into that, and as expected, it's a poorly-made fake counting on people being too lazy to check the satellite tracks themselves, which can be easily done by using tools like this one: https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php

On each of the dates, March 21 & March 19, Maxar's satellites (specifically WorldView-1 & GeoEye-1) passed directly over Kyiv.

 

20 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it's worth it. The Russian disinformation strategy is to produce as much bull**** as possible and just pump it into the internet. Each fake claim is not that hard to debunk, but the sheer volume creates confusion and overwhelms people. If people stop fact checking their lies, the Russians basically succeeded in their goal.

Each debunk takes time. People who the claim is aimed at will not be swayed by the debunk. Sheer amount of disinformation is enough to influence people. In the end, people start to think the truth is in the middle.

Best way to combat disinformation is to not publish it. Each big agency that carries Russian disinformation helps them achieve their goals. They need to have a filter, if it is debunked then it is not carried. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

On 4/3/2022 at 11:19 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The video made by the retired Finnish colonel covered this in detail...

Martti J. Kari is a former intelligence Colonel in the Finnish Defense Forces resent interview in English.

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

I read a correspondent say that the war is starting to look more like WW1 - trench warfare and artillery.

 

[domfluff]

9 minutes ago, c3k said:

(The above references the video of the Russian artillery unit being shelled, slowly, as they attempt to set up and the Ukraine solution of distributing their firing units into small 1 or 2 gun units for survivability.)

Software is important, but most important, is communications.

 

Sorry, yes - by "software problem" I meant it's something that it needs a solution other than hardware, as in it's not a question of bigger guns or more of them, but of co-ordination and control. Some of that will literally be software, but some of that will be as simple ("simple") as changes in organisational structure.

Comms are a massive part of that, but to a large extent how it's achieved isn't the important thing, but that it involves a change to the thinking, infrastructure and employment.

[c3k]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

 

Looks like ~8 men running down the trench together and sheltering in one area. That...is scary. One shell dropped right there (yeah, odds) would take them ALL out.

Regarding the "looking like WWI" comment. Yeah, and watching that, it shows why having bomb-proof shelters at certain intervals in a trench were so important.

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been trying to figure this out for more than 30 years and haven't come up with anything useful.  The more extreme things get on either side the more they overlap.  There is almost no pragmatic difference between a "Kleptocracy" and a "Dictatorship", for example.

Putin's Russia is Fascist more than it is anything else, therefore calling it Fascist seems the way to go.

Steve

The simplest way to resolve the question is to simply look at what they are saying themselves. RIA Novosti is a regime mouthpiece and what it's spouting isn't an appeal to the "revolution" or a call for the rise of the oppressed masses. Instead, it's calling for Russian domination and Ukrainian subservience in overt ethnic terms. Trust them when they tell you who they are:   https://news.yahoo.com/genocide-masterplan-experts-alarmed-after-kremlin-intellectual-calls-for-cleansed-ukraine-182354392.html

[Taranis]

Ukrainian Border guards raised flag over Hremyach in Chernihiv region : (telegram link)

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/17843

 

 

 

 

 

* Technically, 53 MB is in the area West of Donetsk. Maybe units from 150 MD (in principle they have BMP-3 and T-72B3) or more probably 11MRR/1AK DPR (separatists) 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Taranis

[Bil Hardenberger]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

This war is surreal... we see videos showing hte highest tech and most advanced weapon systems to this... that video could have been shot on the Western Front in WW1.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it's worth it. The Russian disinformation strategy is to produce as much bull**** as possible and just pump it into the internet. Each fake claim is not that hard to debunk, but the sheer volume creates confusion and overwhelms people. If people stop fact checking their lies, the Russians basically succeeded in their goal.

Yes but is it for this thread? We keep getting distracted by other topics which, while fascinating in themselves, are not really about military developments in the war.

My apologies in advance (I've lived in Canada for too long, pre-emptive self shaming is ingrained!) as I don't want to come across as a dogmatic Thread Guard.

But...I'm personally more curious about Kherson and the developing decisive battle in the East, than proving that RUS propaganda drivel is...yep, Russian propaganda drivel.

We all know this, it's a bit of Singing To The Choir, eh…?

Edited April 7, 2022 by Kinophile