How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

Sorry if it is alreay posted :
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-send-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine-20220401-p5a9yl.html

AUSTRALIA TO SEND BUSHMASTER TO UKRAINE

Quote

Australia is working out how to get some of its Bushmaster armoured vehicles to Ukraine after the government agreed to a plea from the war-torn nation’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, for more military support.

 

Quote

Defence officials said Australia had 946 Bushmasters in its stock at the moment. The armoured vehicles are made in Bendigo, currently by French-owned Thales. They’re used by militaries around the world, including the United Kingdom and Dutch forces.

 

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He pointed out the size of the vehicles was such that only three or four would fit on Australia’s C-17 Globemaster planes but sending more on ships might take too long.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Taranis
picture added

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If you need anything, just nod....

You know, that old movie is starting to seem like a documentary, not fiction.

There's only one way out of this valley, back through that pass you came through.

Or....

You know our standing orders: Out of commission, become a bunker; out of ammo, become a pillbox; out of time, become heroes....

Oh, I was thinking about that movie too, (after seeing so many Soviet tanks on my screen for a month) . 

Not sure where this war will lead us but I suspect a lot of movies /series /docs (and games) will follow 

[Kinophile]

Plus, UA equipment is steadily improving, not just in availability but tech level.

=====

I'd predict that in a couple of months the majority of UKR combat inf will have proper gun optics and nvg goggles. They will have a huge number of experienced ATGM "snipers". They'll have adapted their tactical best practices. The lower level officers from D1 will be leading Companies, Battalions, Groups.

So with the current contrasting attrition levels, the UKR army is going to get better equipped, better led, better at large unit fighting the more the war continues at this steady pace. UKR will achieve deeper unit-group cohesion, not just at company and battalion but divisional and above. 

Every military reflects its society.@Haiduk's post much, much earlier described the Ukrainian frontier/cossack mentality, a very open, egalitarian and self-motivating from of group-think that is in sharp contrast to the Russian top-down, Pharaonic and self-censoring mindset. 

That contrast seems to be exactly why UKR reformed after 2015 but RUS Army did not. It also didn't help the RA that the top brass essentially got distracted by Syria, where as UKR was able to group-focus on a single objective - defeat the next Russian invasion. The real one.

By contrast, RUS will achieve none of those rapid, nimble adjustments and deep unit cohesion, as it funamentlla cant think that loose and fast as an institution and also they've lost so many of their officer core, especially the combat experienced ones.

Russia will have some units, commanders able to adapt/change but the nature of the  political society behind them has not changed and will constantly and instinctively override/interfere with any push within the military for change/adaptation. The Russian military is a wolf with a scorpion clinging to its neck, stabbing in the poison whenever the wolf tries to go a different direction.

This will be the real tension point within Russia, as only the military has the wherewithal to actual confront and change the political structure. Navalny et al are inevitable but ultimately irrelevant. The Russian Army will decide the next form of Russia, as it's the Army that is being affected most directly by this growing possible defeat. 

 

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Combatintman all respect, but what about the intelligence of the UKR unit planning/executing this?

It was a dicey operation, and taking a real chance of giving Putin a propaganda coup - potentially downed helos, captured air crew, nazis captured attacking homeland and all that crap.

I'd personally trust that they're not going to waste helos, NATO ISR, critical crew, public narrrative...on civilian fuel.

OTH I totally could see RUS handling things like that, because, well, they ve been...

You're missing my point which has been nicely demonstrated already by the citizens of Belgorod turning fuel stations into carparks following the strike desperate to get fuel - this wouldn't have happened had the attack hit a military fuel depot.  It has also been demonstrated in part by the response of the Russian authorities as they have publicly admitted it has taken place.  The net result is that there is a section of the population that now knows that the 'mighty' Russian armed forces cannot protect them, that this war is by no means over and for those living in Belgorod it has triggered panic buying.  It may trigger some of them to evacuate which means that the message propagates more widely.  A small additional bonus effect maybe, but this will also cause some traffic disruption thus hampering military movement down the highways in the area.

Now let's' say that those helicopters zapped some Russian logistical node in a remote area/"Nowheregrad".  The attack can be denied by the Russians and this has less effect in the information operations domain and its a rinse a repeat of other military logistical vehicles getting whacked which we have seen ad nauseum now.  Such attacks of course have an effect but it is more physical than cognitive, and it is very localized say to XX Motor Rifle Brigade's ability to manoeuvre.  

By attacking something in a city we have had a reaction and the Russian military now needs to consider ringing its border cities with SAM systems and/or committing aircraft to CAP coverage of the borders - all of which divert resources from the front.  Or it ignores the problem and risks a repeat attack and more civilian dismay.

There's been a lot of talk here about what 'new warfare' looks like and I think this is an example of it.  Small forces exploiting gaps in a dispersed battlespace attacking carefully selected and weakly defended centres of gravity/targets to achieve operational effects.

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Combatintman said:

I doubt that whatever was in those storage tanks would have anything to do with supplying any Russian military operations.  To me it is more about sending a message that Ukraine is willing and capable of reaching out and touching Russia which has the fringe benefits of forcing Russia to commit more ground based air defence and CAP assets in its border regions and a whole bunch of fuel tanks on fire is not something that can be readily hidden from the good (or otherwise) citizens of Belgorod.

Now this is interesting.  I have been wondering if Ukraine was going to stretch out and start hitting outside its own borders.  This one is tricky:

- It is Russian soil and it could create more popular Russian support for the war (i.e. assist Russian Will); however, one has to consider what the real state of Russian Will is and is not.  I do not trust polls conducted in Russia right now on several fundamental levels, so it is hard to really see where the domestic front is at, but this will play into the "hawk" hands as an escalation,

- On the other hand, it is a clear demonstration of Russian weakness and failures.  So if the UAF can strike 25 kms into Russia, where are all the things that are supposed to stop that from happening?  Further, if this operation is "all going according to plan" and Ukraine is barely holding on, this is a strategic demonstration (and a pretty good one - hard to hide a refinery fire).  The Russian immediate counter is to try and claim it was an industrial accident but that is weak tea.

- I doubt this will impact the Russian war machine too much, hitting a military fuel farm or railhead would have done more to do that.  This looks more like a strategic target and a SOF aviation job to be honest, small highly empowered capability right at the seam of operational and strategic.  The target was no doubt "legitimate" in a legal sense but its link back to the invasion force was probably somewhat distant.  This looks more like a legitimate strategic target in that it is part of the architecture of Russian national power.

This one bears watching closely in my opinion.  Actions like these are really signals (war is communication) which further reinforce the idea of posturing that is going on here.  Unless Ukraine is going to begin a SOF Aviation campaign to cripple strategic oil and gas nodes (oh man that would be something to watch), this may be the start of some more military signaling outside of Ukraine itself.   

The fact that Ukraine is even able to achieve information dominance to do this op (e.g. they must know there was a hole in Russian strategic ISR and AD) has got to be driving Russian high-command nuts right now.  Political level is likely losing his mind as well.  Ukraine has to be careful though, this is how WMDs do get justified, another reason I am surprised they went with it.

[Combatintman]

32 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Sorry if it is alreay posted :
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-send-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine-20220401-p5a9yl.html

AUSTRALIA TO SEND BUSHMASTER TO UKRAINE

 

 

Hopefully they won't try and ship them through the Dardanelles, that ended badly the last time I seem to recall.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Hopefully they won't try and ship them through the Dardanelles, that ended badly the last time I seem to recall.

"What are your legs?  Steel springs.  How fast will you run?  Faster than a leopard!" 

[Combatintman]

Just now, The_Capt said:

"What are your legs?  Steel springs.  How fast will you run?  Faster than a leopard!" 

Yes that's the badger.

[Taranis]

* Some says they are IFV (probably BMPs)

Edited April 1, 2022 by Taranis

[billbindc]

https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r

Soldatov is always well worth reading.

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Mi-28. On previous video, posted by akd, you can see they worked in pair  - first Ka-52, second Mi-28.

Ka-52 has two coax rotors, this one has only one

Your are spot in @Haiduk. That is an Mi-28. 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 зи нами бог

(some readers may be more familiar with the German version:  Gott mit uns )

So? Neo-nazis, you think?

Edited April 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_MonkeyKing]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now this is interesting.  I have been wondering if Ukraine was going to stretch out and start hitting outside its own borders.  This one is tricky:

- It is Russian soil and it could create more popular Russian support for the war (i.e. assist Russian Will); however, one has to consider what the real state of Russian Will is and is not.  I do not trust polls conducted in Russia right now on several fundamental levels, so it is hard to really see where the domestic front is at, but this will play into the "hawk" hands as an escalation,

- On the other hand, it is a clear demonstration of Russian weakness and failures.  So if the UAF can strike 25 kms into Russia, where are all the things that are supposed to stop that from happening?  Further, if this operation is "all going according to plan" and Ukraine is barely holding on, this is a strategic demonstration (and a pretty good one - hard to hide a refinery fire).  The Russian immediate counter is to try and claim it was an industrial accident but that is weak tea.

- I doubt this will impact the Russian war machine too much, hitting a military fuel farm or railhead would have done more to do that.  This looks more like a strategic target and a SOF aviation job to be honest, small highly empowered capability right at the seam of operational and strategic.  The target was no doubt "legitimate" in a legal sense but its link back to the invasion force was probably somewhat distant.  This looks more like a legitimate strategic target in that it is part of the architecture of Russian national power.

This one bears watching closely in my opinion.  Actions like these are really signals (war is communication) which further reinforce the idea of posturing that is going on here.  Unless Ukraine is going to begin a SOF Aviation campaign to cripple strategic oil and gas nodes (oh man that would be something to watch), this may be the start of some more military signaling outside of Ukraine itself.   

The fact that Ukraine is even able to achieve information dominance to do this op (e.g. they must know there was a hole in Russian strategic ISR and AD) has got to be driving Russian high-command nuts right now.  Political level is likely losing his mind as well.  Ukraine has to be careful though, this is how WMDs do get justified, another reason I am surprised they went with it.

I on the other hand expect Ukrainians keep pushing past the Rus border on all possible fronts. They must keep Russia tied to as wide of a front as possible. This can be done with the Ukr local defence forces.

Ukraine is going to have trouble in if they play the Russian game of limited front in the east.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So? Neo-nazis, you think?

This slogan goes back to Frederick the Great at least... ISTR it's originally a Swedish thing but too lazy to google it.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I on the other hand expect Ukrainians keep pushing past the Rus border on all possible fronts. They must keep Russia tied to as wide of a front as possible. This can be done with the Ukr local defence forces.

Ukraine is going to have trouble in if they play the Russian game of limited front in the east.

It's compellence strategy plain and simple. It's got to be mindblowing to Putin that it's being done to him rather than by him.

[womble]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This slogan goes back to Frederick the Great at least... ISTR it's originally a Swedish thing but too lazy to google it.

Wikipedia concurs with my memory that it was the Teutonic Knights that coined it...

[BeondTheGrave]

28 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

You're missing my point which has been nicely demonstrated already by the citizens of Belgorod turning fuel stations into carparks following the strike desperate to get fuel - this wouldn't have happened had the attack hit a military fuel depot.

Not disagreeing with the rest of your post, but youre making a big assumption here that there is a difference currently between civilian and military infrastructure in Belgorod. At the end of the day there are real physical limits, either by pipeline, plane, or truck as to how much POL can be brought into the city each day. There is only so much storage available. Throughput is a major issue on a system like this, and IMO its a mistake to assume that Russia has kept a wall between its civilian POL infrastructure and the military needs. Likely every drop of diesel being shipped into Belgorod has been tightly controlled by staff planners most of this year, probably part of last year too. A certain amount goes to the civilian market, a certain amount goes to the military. Even if we conclude that this was a storage facility for specialized products, something that say couldn't be put into a civilian car, it creates a problem. You have to now replace those destroyed stocks, you have less overall storage capacity to do so, AND if the system doesn't have enough slack to cover the (regional) imports they will have to come at the expense of everything else. Maybe the Russians are nice guys, will prioritize protecting the civilian market over the military. Or maybe a whole bunch of civilian stations are about to run dry while the army takes over the remaining capacity. 

All this is to say that I seriously doubt that a line still exists between 'invasion fuel' and 'civilian fuel.' At this point everything is being carefully managed and balanced. Or its not, nobody is watching the store, and youre right. In which case we have yet another explanation for Russia's disastrous supply situation. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 зи нами бог

(some readers may be more familiar with the German version:  Gott mit uns )

We havn't such slogan indeed ("з нами Бог" is correct). If some use it, this not not widespread practice. 

This is more Russian thing with their agressive slogan "We are Russians! God with us!"

Or Serbs, with their "God is on the Heaven and Russia is on the Earth"

Edited April 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now this is interesting.  I have been wondering if Ukraine was going to stretch out and start hitting outside its own borders.  This one is tricky:

- It is Russian soil and it could create more popular Russian support for the war (i.e. assist Russian Will); however, one has to consider what the real state of Russian Will is and is not.  I do not trust polls conducted in Russia right now on several fundamental levels, so it is hard to really see where the domestic front is at, but this will play into the "hawk" hands as an escalation,

- On the other hand, it is a clear demonstration of Russian weakness and failures.  So if the UAF can strike 25 kms into Russia, where are all the things that are supposed to stop that from happening?  Further, if this operation is "all going according to plan" and Ukraine is barely holding on, this is a strategic demonstration (and a pretty good one - hard to hide a refinery fire).  The Russian immediate counter is to try and claim it was an industrial accident but that is weak tea.

- I doubt this will impact the Russian war machine too much, hitting a military fuel farm or railhead would have done more to do that.  This looks more like a strategic target and a SOF aviation job to be honest, small highly empowered capability right at the seam of operational and strategic.  The target was no doubt "legitimate" in a legal sense but its link back to the invasion force was probably somewhat distant.  This looks more like a legitimate strategic target in that it is part of the architecture of Russian national power.

This one bears watching closely in my opinion.  Actions like these are really signals (war is communication) which further reinforce the idea of posturing that is going on here.  Unless Ukraine is going to begin a SOF Aviation campaign to cripple strategic oil and gas nodes (oh man that would be something to watch), this may be the start of some more military signaling outside of Ukraine itself.   

The fact that Ukraine is even able to achieve information dominance to do this op (e.g. they must know there was a hole in Russian strategic ISR and AD) has got to be driving Russian high-command nuts right now.  Political level is likely losing his mind as well.  Ukraine has to be careful though, this is how WMDs do get justified, another reason I am surprised they went with it.

Everyone is hung up about small gradations in what will or won't trigger Putin. I think this is totally wrong unless NATO cuts Ukrainian support to the point they have to take a bad deal immediately. As long as Ukraine is winning Putin is getting more desperate. He has staked his regimes prestige, and probably its survival on winning this war. If he loses it he IS going to be desperate. All the hemming and hawing about giving the Ukrainians this system but not that one just moves the moment WHEN Putin gets desperate back and forth. What I have not seen is any reason to think that Putin desperate later is going to be any different from Putin desperate sooner. Later just lets him wreck even more of Ukraine and create even more refugees, thus I am for absolutely maximal support for the Ukrainians.

Edited April 1, 2022 by dan/california
dropped an am

[panzermartin]

Given that even barefoot Houthi could hit oil refineries deep in Saudi capital, I'm not surprised Ukrainians could attempt and succeed hitting infrastructure. I expected a drone attack though, its a bit shocking they did this with Mi-24s under the nose of the RA.   

[womble]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Everyone is hung up about small gradations in what will or won't trigger Putin. I think this is totally wrong unless NATO cuts Ukrainian support to the point they have to take a bad deal immediately. As long as Ukraine is winning Putin is getting more desperate. He has staked his regimes prestige, and probably its survival on winning this war. If he loses it he IS going to be desperate. All the hemming and hawing about giving the Ukrainians this system but not that one just moves the moment WHEN Putin gets desperate back and forth. What I have not seen is any reason to think that Putin desperate later is going to be any different from Putin desperate sooner. Later just lets him wreck even more of Ukraine and create even more refugees, thus I for absolutely maximal support for the Ukrainians.

I think the intent is to "boil the frog*", and hope there's a resolution before anyone gets desperate enough to do something thermonuclearly stupid.

* By which I mean incrementally ratchet the pressure in such a way that there's never an inflexion point where the new level of pressure is sufficiently different from the old level that restraint snaps. 

[Lethaface]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one bears watching closely in my opinion.  Actions like these are really signals (war is communication) which further reinforce the idea of posturing that is going on here.  Unless Ukraine is going to begin a SOF Aviation campaign to cripple strategic oil and gas nodes (oh man that would be something to watch), this may be the start of some more military signaling outside of Ukraine itself.   

Russia has been hitting Ukrainian oil depots and other strategic infrastructure deep inside (western) Ukraine. Among other things mentioned, imo this strike signals that 'two can play that game'.

I can see Russia aiming to destroy as much as strategic infrastructure along 'their way out'. Now Ukraine having shown to also posses this capability might be useful in negotiations. 

[Taranis]

Odessa, March 2022. One of the main arteries in the city center is barricaded with metal hedgehogs. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

 

In Odessa, Ukraine, on March 6, 2022. Training in shooting and handling civil defense weapons. All are volunteers to defend their city against the Russian invasion. Women decided to stay and get involved. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

[TheVulture]

Continuing the theme of strikes inside Russia, power lines 10km south of the Russian city of Belgorod were damaged by an explosions today, near Nikolske. These lines supply power to the village of Yasni Zori. The explosions were about 15km inside the Russian border.

https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/10261

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile