How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What they are missing, and frankly it is not surprising to see it emerge on a wargaming board, is a view through a lens of micro-qualitative calculus; playing CM, in all its versions, has changed the way we see warfare.   All CM veterans see the signs of something different at a micro-level: abandoned vehicles, loss of high value assets, loss of high level commanders, videos of embarrassing Russian cluster-f#cks and evidence of UA successes just about everywhere.  A lot of these metrics are qualitative and when combined with the macro-quantitative they create a very different picture. 

Very well put.

I've already mentioned this once before, but in our internal discussion area I tore into a RAND study that showed Russia being able to walk through the entire Baltics within a couple of days.  I focused on what I felt were key assumptions they made, including the compounding power of Javelin to influence tactical battles which would then trickle up to affect operational and then strategic levels.  A couple of our guys thought I was overly critical of the sim and its conclusions.  Now that we have this war to draw from I can say they were right about one thing... I was wrong.  I should have been even more critical

Steve

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The other important point is that modelling in general (thinking in terms of scientific modelling as a whole, rather than anything military specific) is often not about "predicting the future" in the sense that most people think of it. More often, i is about seeing how outcomes change with changing assumptions and input conditions.

You might find that parameter A barely matters at all - you can change it by a factor of 10 and it makes 1% difference to the outcome. So for parameter  A, don't waste too much time trying to evaluate it precisely. While parameter B might have a large effect on the outcome for relatively small changes, which means that your prediction is only as good as your ability to measure B accurately (and tells you that you need to know all of its interactions very precisely). 

So often it isn't about predicting the future, it is about determining which the critical parameters are in your model, and what information you therefore need to be able to find out in order to make any kind of relevant prediction at all. It is about identifying the critical factors and understanding how they interact with each other.

We've all seen factors in this war that probably wasn't in many military models before, or were only just starting to be appreciated. The willingness of Russian troops to abandon important equipment. The ability of light infantry with modern ATGMs to be able to hit high value targets. The use of drones in reconnaisance, fire control and as weapon systems. Crowd-sourcing intelligence from a friendly population. Modelling can (hopefully) be used to figure out how important each of these are and how they interact with each other.

Absolutely.  This is very much how we use it now.  We do staff wargames, CAX and all sorts of simulated stuff but it is to stress test our COAs and campaign designs.

I would also add, it is very unlikely that we will see the "MAL 1000" able to tell us exactly what is going to happen anytime soon (although Dr Arquila had some pretty interesting ideas about that).  We are more likely to see it rolled in as "staff support" that will be used as a sanity check.  For example, in the future whichever staff came up with this insane plan might have an operational research model that comes back with "are you f#cking nuts?!", which should trigger a long second look.  But I do not see use asking the "big smart machine" which COA we should choose anytime soon either.

In the end it is about competitive advantage, that is the holy grail of military affairs.  Why? Because Russia is demonstrating what can happen if you do not have it right now and every professional military lives in terror of this sort of thing happening to them.

[Probus]

Operational layer to CM? Woohoo! When does it hit the shelves! Are we making a list of features yet? We of course need the option to play the tactical battles in the current Combat Mission.

BTW, What's up with Belorussia? Does anyone have the latest?

[akd]

20 minutes ago, Probus said:

BTW, What's up with Belorussia? Does anyone have the latest?

There are several Belarusian units on the border, but current indications are that they are rotating units in a defensive posture, not building up for an invasion.

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Its just posturing. You need comms with Belarus. UKR's issue is with the Belarus elite, not the Belarussians themselves. They share a similar mentality to ****head dictators - but they got stomped on, hard, with direct miltiary force into their capital supporting internal security. UKR didn't.

If/When the Russian invasion starts to properly fail, Belarus will go full Italy and jump ship asap.

So when Lukashenko is racing to his escape plane UKR will need to be able to communicate with the guys chasing him...

Eh, the majority of belarusians fully support Lukashenko and this war.

Sure there are very few of them that covertly oppose the war unlike russians that have no opposition to war at all - but it doesn't matter when there's zero overt opposition.

When missiles and planes that murder our people fly from the territory of Belarus and they aren't exploding before launch - that means belarusians might as well be launching/flying those themselves.

Edited March 23, 2022 by kraze

[db_zero]

The performance, efficiency and effectiveness of the Russian army is beyond comprehension and by definition the Chinese military is suspect.

How will one model them after this fiasco is beyond me…

In the original CM BB there were mechanics for Russian command and control issues. 
 

You may need to add units that shoot fleeing soldiers to boost morale.

In WW2 the Russians used penal battalions. It was mentioned that people arrested for protesting the war would be drafted.

Will we see a return of penal battalions?

Well if nothing else the Russians and China put on the best parades. I even saw a blurb that Putin didn’t care about the number of men lost as he was upset at the number of vehicles lost as it means no parade this year.

Wonder if this guy is in Ukraine right about now….

https://youtu.be/0rAHrHd2lcw

Edited March 23, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Eh, the majority of belarusians fully support Lukashenko and this war.

Evidence?

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Sure there are very few of them that covertly oppose the war unlike russians that have no opposition to war at all - but it doesn't matter when there's zero overt opposition.

Belarusians just got stomped on hard for overt opposition.  Need more friction first.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-air-force-pilots-fight-russia/

[Commanderski]

Probably more than routine training:

Doomsday plane worth £150M that can 'withstand nuclear blasts' flies over English Channel.

"Washington has maintained a fleet of Nightwatch command-and-control Boeing 747 E4-B aircraft since the 70s, with the specific purpose of providing an airborne base for the US defence secretary and senior military personnel to conduct operations during a nuclear war. The aircraft can remain in the air for days and is designed to withstand the electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear blast. It conducts routine training and readiness missions. At least one E4-B is kept on 24/7 readiness. It is also known as the "Flying Pentagon".  The aircraft appears to be headed for RAF Mildenhall.

Russia also has a “doomsday plane”, the Ilyushin Il-80, known as Maxdome.

But, in December 2020, Russian media reported that radio communication equipment from the plane had been stolen while it was undergoing maintenance."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1585261/Doomsday-plane-English-Channel-US-Boeing-747-nightwatch-nuclear-war-Russia-latest-update

[akd]

More stupid Chechen bravado in Mariupol:

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Evidence?

Belarusians just got stomped on hard for overt opposition.  Need more friction first.

Evidence is that Lukashenko is in power for 28 years.

Belarusians never got stomped hard. Because they never ever opposed Lukashenko.

They were just walking around and applauding cops that murdered them while talking down on Maidan and claiming they aren't anything like those Ukrainian nazis in 2013-2014.

My personal boiling point was when I saw Belarusian IT guys, a middle class of all people, talking in telegram groups about how people in Kherson have it easy compared to their "suffering"

Edited March 23, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I do computer simulations for a living, physics-based simulations, no human decisions involved.  I'd say the issue is not AI or quantum calcs or anything that fancy.  The issue is the data entered into the simulations.  If the russians and ukrainians were modeled accurately and the simulation 'physics' could handle the small scale unit effects, then it could be modeled.  The reality is that Russia was entered as steel when it's actually cheap plastic, while the ukrainians were entered as plastic instead of steel.

This is the key point, IMHO, of where these larger wargaming models fall down.  As we sim folks like to say... garbage data in, garbage data out.

Tactical combat drives operational results which in turn determine the strategic picture.  Having the best strategic or operational sim in the world means nothing if the tactical modeling for them isn't reasonably accurate.  My sense is that the people making these higher level sims don't appreciate that as much as they should. 

I suspect the modeling found in higher level games is deliberately aimed at producing "average" results, not exceptional ones.  This might be OK if the generalized assumptions for each force are more-or-less correct, but if not then it produces "abnormal averages".  That's garbage out.

As mentioned earlier, every CM player knows that attacking with an inferior quality force over difficult terrain against a high quality and well armed defender is not easy even with superior numbers.  And even with superior numbers, a victory generally means lots and lots of friendly losses.

Now take this situation and add things like mud.  Now remove a combined arms element.  Introduce your own rules where you role a die and cancel all the orders for one of your forces for 5 minutes and then only issue new orders with a dice role every 60 seconds.  Roll a 5 or a 6 and you get to issue more orders, anything else you don't.  So on and so forth.

We know these factors matter because we see how little influence the player has on outcome when enough of these are piled up together.

Steve

[Kinophile]

36 minutes ago, kraze said:

Eh, the majority of belarusians fully support Lukashenko and this war.

.... - that means belarusians might as well be launching/flying those themselves.

Ehhhh it's a police state? That just had an internal unrest which was heavily stamped out? That is effectively occupied by Russian internal security forces?

So...the odds of ordinary Belarussians having any say in anything the Gov does, or any chance of changing what it does, are bordering on zero...

But, still, this is irrelevant. It's only the BR army elite that can decide what will happen. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

@sburke, unnamed Lt. Col. captured, possibly commander of an EW or ELINT unit.

Quote

5412:54

Ukrainians capture lieutenant colonel - Western official

Gordon Corera

Security correspondent, BBC News

A Russian lieutenant colonel has been captured by Ukrainian forces, a Western official has confirmed.

Ukraine has conducted "limited counter attacks", they said, which had led to the destruction of Russian equipment and capture of some Russian personnel.

"In the area in which he was captured, there was a significant amount of electronic warfare equipment. It's unclear whether he was personally connected with that, but it's something we're looking into currently," the western official said.

Overall, six Russian generals are now thought to have been killed, the most senior is a lieutenant general who was commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. All six will have been replaced, they say.

The official said it was 'remarkable' that Hostomel airport was still being fought over when it was a Day One objective for Russian forces. 

They still expect Russian forces to try and edge towards the capital bringing more artillery into range. But Ukrainian forces are doing "well", they say, to take small towns back from Russian forces. In coming days, they expect a focus more on Russian forces manoeuvring in the east of the country.

Russia has been frustrated in its plan to move on three axes simultaneously and may focus more on the east. A concern is that if the Russian forces make breakthroughs, they could surround the main Ukrainian fighting force, the JFO, in the east, the official said.

"The Ukrainian forces there are strong, but they do have a challenge that they potentially have forces coming at them in three directions. This is probably the area where we have the greatest concern," they said.

-BBC

Edited March 23, 2022 by akd

[DerKommissar]

Software buzzwords like "AI" and "Machine learning" are a personal pet peave of mine. As at the end of the day, it's all just written code. Not conceptually different than wargame rules used in WW2 by the Western Approach Tactical Unit.

When folks actually put in the effort and act out a plethora hypothetical scenarios, we get the Louisiana Maneuvers. Where practical lessons (inc. logistics) are learned in the field, and the accuracy of the rules is secondary.

Like Ike said, “In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”

48 minutes ago, kraze said:

Evidence is that Lukashenko is in power for 28 years.

Trudeau is going on his first decade, this must be evidence that all canucks support him. Biden was elected, so all yanks must support him?

This being said, I want to see all those oligarchs behind bars.

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke, unnamed Lt. Col. captured, possibly commander of an EW or ELINT unit.

-BBC

that sounds like this guy that Haiduk posted

Lt.colonel Alexandr Koshel Claimed he is the chief of PsyOps counteraction group of 58th CAA His documents says he is mayor, serving in m/u 21250 - 212th Training center of tank troops (Siberian Military district). He can be promoted to lt.colonel and appointed lately on the duty of PsyOps in 58th CAA and hadn't time to change own military ID.   
 

[akd]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

that sounds like this guy that Haiduk posted

Lt.colonel Alexandr Koshel Claimed he is the chief of PsyOps counteraction group of 58th CAA His documents says he is mayor, serving in m/u 21250 - 212th Training center of tank troops (Siberian Military district). He can be promoted to lt.colonel and appointed lately on the duty of PsyOps in 58th CAA and hadn't time to change own military ID.   
 

Quite possible.

[danfrodo]

Note that AI requires large datasets of information to be 'trained'.  how does one get that for something like UKR war?  Generals are often "fighting the last war" because that's the most recent information they have and they have to think outside the box to predict where war is going -- that's different nowadays of course because technology is moving so fast. 

Following up on Probus post earlier, any more Belarus info?

[Bil Hardenberger]

On 3/22/2022 at 2:21 PM, The_Capt said:

No that is the Silver Fox who did CMCWs developer/designer video on Slitherine prior to release.  I will not dox him, but to know him is to love him.

I love you too Warren.

[sburke]

3 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke, another VDV Major: Oleg Patskalev, deputy battalion commander, 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, 98th Guards Airborne Division.

 

that is a Colonel and 2 majors from that unit so far.

Colonel Sergey Sukharev, commander of 331st Guards Airborne Regiment (of the 98th VDV Division)
Major Sergey Krylov deputy battalion commander from the VDV's 331st Airborne Regiment
Major: Oleg Patskalev, deputy battalion commander, 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, 98th Guards Airborne Division.

I am guessing there are a few more that may not be identifiable.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Software buzzwords like "AI" and "Machine learning" are a personal pet peave of mine. As at the end of the day, it's all just written code.

Heh, and what do you think our brains are?  And like our brains AI and Machine learning are just code that can change itself to better fit an environmental problem.  We are carrying around AI in our brainpans right now, it just took a lot longer to program.

[danfrodo]

Even the most excellent, best trained AI would fail if you feed into it wrong input.  The AI is supposed to provide an answer to some instance.  But if the instance is "russian army is great and big"  then it's gonna spit out the correct answer for that input.  But the input is just plain wrong -- surprise to everyone except maybe Steve & TheCapt.

[dan/california]

Garbage in, garbage out, it is the oldest rule in coding.

[danfrodo]

 

27 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke, unnamed Lt. Col. captured, possibly commander of an EW or ELINT unit.

-BBC

The capture of personnel or equipment from a unit like this seems to indicate that UKR is operating behind RU 'lines', does it not?  How does this guy or his unit get close enough to front to be captured?

[BeondTheGrave]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the key point, IMHO, of where these larger wargaming models fall down.  As we sim folks like to say... garbage data in, garbage data out.

Tactical combat drives operational results which in turn determine the strategic picture.  Having the best strategic or operational sim in the world means nothing if the tactical modeling for them isn't reasonably accurate.  My sense is that the people making these higher level sims don't appreciate that as much as they should. 

I suspect the modeling found in higher level games is deliberately aimed at producing "average" results, not exceptional ones.  This might be OK if the generalized assumptions for each force are more-or-less correct, but if not then it produces "abnormal averages".  That's garbage out.

As mentioned earlier, every CM player knows that attacking with an inferior quality force over difficult terrain against a high quality and well armed defender is not easy even with superior numbers.  And even with superior numbers, a victory generally means lots and lots of friendly losses.

Now take this situation and add things like mud.  Now remove a combined arms element.  Introduce your own rules where you role a die and cancel all the orders for one of your forces for 5 minutes and then only issue new orders with a dice role every 60 seconds.  Roll a 5 or a 6 and you get to issue more orders, anything else you don't.  So on and so forth.

We know these factors matter because we see how little influence the player has on outcome when enough of these are piled up together.

Steve

Another vital issue, one that I see a lot, is what paradigm of war you choose as your model. If you assume a WWII European model, most of the 'turning points' were operational in nature. The Battle of Stalingrad was a huge affair, millions of men fought, immense casualties, across a space maybe 1000km2. The Battle of the Bulge, again a significant engagement fought over a vast tract of land involving major forces over the course of weeks. But tactically, what battle really matters? Was the action at Pavlov's House in Stalingrad really decisive? Or was it 'just another' in the grind? I think many of these operational scale games, both pro and not, just default to the WWII model. Or perhaps a WW2.5 model where the assumptions are the same but the sides have modern kit. I've been playing Compass Games' World War III, great reprint of a classic WWIII era operational scale wargame. But its just a WWII style game with some extra bells and whistles. The same assumption that tactical actions dont really matter and can safely be abstracted in the face of greater operational scale mechanical depth. 

I dont know what the best way to model WWIII is. Personally I think WWIII would have been won on either side by the action of a few brigades/regiments on a critical axis, landing it in the scale of a big CM campaign. But for something like the GWOT or this new conflict? Even for Vietnam? I think Steve your right. Tactical actions play a much more significant role on the outcome of a war than even any operational maneuver. How do you account for someone like Zvika Greengold or the Ghost of Kyiv (assuming he exists)? Modern technology and the much smaller overall force ratio makes these things far more likely to occur. A handful of fanatical diehards really can hold up an entire operational movement in ways that was much harder in WWII. Even Bastogne was held by most of a division of troops. 

Which suggests to me that modern gamers should increasingly be looking to reintegrate tactical and operational (and strategic) action into one overall simulation. IDK how you would do that, if I did I'd be selling it myself right now! But its an interesting question, and perhaps in another venue might open up debate again about what really decided a conflict like WWII. Tactics, Operations, and Strategy should be seen as an integrated whole, the greatest flaw with modern wargaming is that most games are very good, but only in one tier of this whole.