How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

I think a tactical nuke on Mariupol is on the cards just as a demonstration. To show Zelenskyy not to push NATO too hard his cities are the first on the list. Would it force NATO's hand? It would mean the start of WW3. Putin can't afford a negotiated settlement it will mean the end for him as president.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by chuckdyke

[CAZmaj]

My former coworker was born and grew up in Belarus. He lives and works in the USA now but is in daily contact with his father, relatives, and friends in Minsk. Today he returned my phone call and told me that for the last few days Belarusian armed forces started calling up their reservists aged 25 – 40. Not good, unless Belarusian attempted invasion of NW Ukraine results in a hopefully successful coup against Lukashenko.

[Sarjen]

I don't think we are even in the hypothetical thinking of a tactical nuke. First, Putin will use chemical strikes. To go nuclear , even if it is "only" tactical, is to forfeit his grand scheme - his legacy.

[CAZmaj]

8 hours ago, akd said:

I see a couple issues with this member of the independent “press”:

Russian flag patch, Z patch...ha, I'm sure he is not reporting on Russian losses.

[BletchleyGeek]

This article on The Atlantic will sound familiar to readers of this thread

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

 When I visited Iraq during the 2007 surge, I discovered that the conventional wisdom in Washington usually lagged the view from the field by two to four weeks. Something similar applies today. Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning.

So why can’t Western analysts admit as much? Most professional scholars of the Russian military first predicted a quick and decisive Russian victory; then argued that the Russians would pause, learn from their mistakes, and regroup; then concluded that the Russians would actually have performed much better if they had followed their doctrine; and now tend to mutter that everything can change, that the war is not over, and that the weight of numbers still favors Russia. Their analytic failure will be only one of the elements of this war worth studying in the future.

[Combatintman]

6 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Vet 0369,

Am surprised at this, for unless a visual is somehow obtained, the RCS on the Raven has to be of the order of less than .01 sq m, likely more like .001 As it happens, that .01 is the number for a Tomahawk nose on. This leaves me wondering how the Tunguska is finding your Ravens. Also, there is a key fact regarding the design requirement for the Tunguska, in terms of the target. Prepare to be shocked, for it's that plane you see, a 1950s vintage Hawker Hunter F6, top speed at altitude M 0.96.

As first designed, Tunguska was a guns only weapon system. The SAM was added later to hit attack helicopters which popped up to shoot ATGMs fromn outside gun range. Given the sum total of these realities, how is it the Tunguska is eating up your microscopic in cross section vs that Hawker Hunter F6 and below radar Vmin RQ-11? Since I'm working from first principles and a fair amount of real world AD system knowledge, yet coming up bust, would love for someone to explain to me how a Tunguska can do this? If we were talking Pantsir-S1, would be more inclined to believe this, because one of the weapons the Pantsir-Sa was required to defeat was the US HARM, a vastly smaller and many times faster target than that ancient British bird above. This is because Pantsir-S1 was designed to protect strategic SAM sites (S-300) against standoff attacks by ARMs, standoff missiles and guided bombs. It's wheeled because Tunguska couldn't keep up with the wheeled and rapidly displacing S-300 system.  The design story of Tunguska and Pantsir-S1 are both on the excellent ausairpower site.

Regards,

John Kettler
 

That is a T variant, the clue's in the number of seats - this is a Hawker Hunter F6

 

[Ts4EVER]

Apparently Ukraine is claiming that Russians have ammunition for three more days of combat. Any good sources for that?

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Apparently Ukraine is claiming that Russians have ammunition for three more days of combat. Any good sources for that?

I hope it is true. Railway connection between Belarus and Ukraine cut to stop Russian reinforcements (republicworld.com)

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by chuckdyke

[CHEqTRO]

Hello! Been a while since I last posted, as I have been busy with college, nevertheless I saw this and I thought that you guys might find it interesting:

It seems that a map from a Russian officer was captured by Ukranian forces in the Kherson area. It is somewhat dated but it seems to be authentic. Here you have a translation of the ORBAT of the russian forces as detailed by the map:

Also, some days ago, a journalist revealed that the russians had prepared medals celebrating the fall of cities like Kyiv, Odessa and Lviv. What I found interesting about this medals, in case that they are actually real, and not a fabrication, is that they indeed had the intention of eventually taking Lviv as well. There was, specially the days previous to the war, and some days after their start, some discussion about how much territory the Russians were going to take, and some people concluded that most likely the Russians had no intention of gettin into western Ukraine. (I will put a tweet from the day the war started from an analyst detailing what he thought will be the potential limit of the Russian advance):

 

[CAZmaj]

18 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

...The west isn't as scared and weak as you seem to think it is, it will not tolerate nuclear war on its borders, not tolerate fallout crossing over into NATO territory. The fallout alone might well constitute a violation of Article 5 itself...

Regarding FALLOUT…
In my previous life (before getting my first after college job in USA) I was a volunteer in Slovenian Territorial Defense, draftee in Yugoslav National Army (Skopje - Macedonia, School for NCOs, Motorized Infantry, Junior Sergeant), and JNA Army reservist (2nd Lt (Reserve) in Slovenia, 1982 - 1987).
Yugoslavia in 1961-1990 was a non-aligned socialist country ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement#:~:text=The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM,largest grouping of states worldwide.  ) and never in Warsaw pact.
Yugoslavia since 1948 considered Warsaw Pact the main treat and thus positioned 90% of 250,000 standing army facing Hungarian, Romanian, Bulgarian and Albanian border. We had to invested about 10% of GDP in defense – expensive but at least we never got attacked by Soviet Union. There was a mandatory draft after high school, 12 + 3 months active service and then mandatory reserve service until 60/65 years of age.
While in Army reserve (1982-1989), I (my unit) was told if the Third Word War would happen it would start by Warsaw Pacts troops attacking trough Fulda Gap, Northern Germany plain and through Vienna and northern Austria.
Yugoslavia would try to remain neutral but highly likely Soviet and Hungarian tank and mechanized divisions would invade from SE corner of current Hungarian-Slovenian border through river Mura plain, try to penetrate through “Ljubljana gate” and reach important ports in northern Italy and Southern France. I was told we would then of course fully mobilize, flood the river Mura, and defend "Ljubljana gate."
Plan was (if needed) to get reinforced by (the elements of) US 173rd Airborne Brigade from Vicenza, Italy. Job of my platoon was to hunt and kill Soviet Spetsnaz in my home city Ljubljana. 
I asked, OK, we stop the Soviets at the gate, what is next?
And I was told they will use chemical weapons first, and then tactical nuclear weapons, OR immediately tactical nuclear weapons. 
What about the fallout, I asked, and was told:
1/ Soviets do not care about their troops, they will remain well protected in their armor,
2/ they will use airburst(s) thus causing much less fallout, and
3/ they will use something which at that time was called “neutron bomb”/ tactical nuclear weapons, which produce a lot of radiation killing the enemy (us) but little material damage and fallout.
I was also told that (at that time in the eighties) Soviet Union was ruled by a Politburo of up to ten important members and Secretary General (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko,…) could not by himself order to use strategic nuclear weapons, and if the global thermonuclear war happened the Soviet Union would be able to save the biggest percentage of their population, because they spent a lot of resources building strong civil defense shelters.
That was of course thirty-five years ago.
Russians now has several hundreds of low yield tactical/battlefield nuclear weapons that can be delivered by rockets, planes, and artillery, right?
There is no more Politburo to manage Putin.
Civil defense shelters were updated. I was an expat in Moscow in 2001 and some of my former coworkers that were ex FSB/ Soviet military, were bragging that at least a third of Russian city population would survive a major nuclear attack.
Putin’s former wife and both daughters, and his new wife with three children have already been evacuated to one of the main nuclear bomb shelters in Ural Mountains.
IMHO, only Cuban crisis had more potential for a global cataclysm.
 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

Intercepted with what, please? Having worked on hypersonic weapons myself and seen in analyses what that blazing speed does to missile engagement zones (S-300s reduced to point defenses), am intensely curious as to how the Ukrainians pulled this off. The only weapon I can imagine the Ukrainians might have that could deal with Iskander as I understand its capabilities is what we called SA-12b/GLADIATOR, which we assessed as having marginal capability against a Poseidon RV, which most definitely wasn't a MARV, but from a MIRVed SLBM. Any idea what the Mach number was on the Iskander MARV when intercepted?

This is unknown. We have 137th SAM brigade of S-300V1 (SA-12). But I know, that S-300PM crews also conducted trainings to shot down ballistic missiles. I don't know about real capabilities of S-330PS to intercept Iskader, but maybe they can hit Tochka-U... 

[Sarjen]

The #FSBLetters guy is announcing a mutiny in FSB to get the message in person to the West. Strange and fictional sounding. Threats to Poland.

 

[Haiduk]

128th mountain-assault brigade captured Russian high-ranked officer. Claimed he is lt.colonel Alexandr Koshel, the chief of PsyOps counteraction group of 58th CAA (Southern Military District, N.Osetia, Vladikavkaz)

Though, his documents says he is mayor, serving in m/u 21250 - 212th Training center of tank troops (Syberian Military district). He can be promouted to lt.colonel and appointed lately on the duty of PsyOps in 58th CAA and hadn't time to change own military ID.   

The place of ambush, where Russian officer was captured. Probably Zaporizhzhia oblast. The same source yesterday issued in own FB photos of destroyed T-90A in the same oblast.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

14 hours ago, Commanderski said:

Also just saw this:" Putin assassination: Russian despot's days numbered as Kremlin 'considers removing' him.

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S days in the Kremlin could be numbered as a group of elite officials are conspiring to overthrow the Russian president and possibly even have him killed, Ukrainian intelligence has warned."

I'm sure Putin is very aware that something like this may happen and is probably very well protected, but security can be bribed.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1584154/vladimir-putin-assassination-kremlin-ukraine-defence-ministry-alexander-bortnikov-update

If Ukraine really knew about an actual and credible plot to kill Putin, they would not spoil the plot by revealing it in public.

A dead Putin would be the best-case scenario for Ukraine, since it's extremely likely that his successor would immediately withdraw from all of Ukraine, say the war was all Putin's fault, and could the sanctions please be lifted now so that we can continue to work together in the spirit of international brotherhood?

Edited March 22, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

Yesterday Azov claimed they sank near Mariupol one Raptor class assault boat and damaged other. At least Russian Telegram account confirms damaging of one Raptor. It is disabled and towed to Eysk port. Two crewmen are wounded. But he denies the loss of the second Raptor.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday Azov claimed they sank near Mariupol one Raptor class assault boat and damaged other. At least Russian Telegram account confirms damaging of one Raptor. It is disabled and towed to Eysk port. Two crewmen are wounded. But he denies the loss of the second Raptor.

 

Here is the vid of the event:

 

 

[Haiduk]

Something hit Russian BTR-82A. I doubt this is Javelin

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

If Ukraine really knew about an actual and credible plot to kill Putin, they would not spoil the plot by revealing it in public.

A dead Putin would be the best-case scenario for Ukraine, since it's extremely likely that his successor would immediately withdraw from all of Ukraine, say the war was all Putin's fault, and could the sanctions please be lifted now so that we can continue to work together in the spirit of international brotherhood?

Is this not also the "best-case" for Russia as well?  I have no doubt that there are those in the power streams that are thinking exactly this right now.  Questions is, what will it take them to act?  Putin does not have a coherent ideology behind him.  He has patriotism, "Russia world power" and the ideology of "Putin Stay in Power".  This makes him a lot more vulnerable when compared to other autocrats who successfully built a cohesive ideology around them (e.g. communism, fascism, Nazis, whatever is going on in NK).  Further, if he is failing in the first two planks of his platform, "patriotism" vs "dragging the country into a useless war", and "Russia as world Power" vs "losing said useless war", then we are down to "Putin Stay in Power". 

It is becoming in the best interest of a lot of powerful people that he is 1) removed and 2) blamed while they were "just following orders" as it creates a viable exit scenario from this mess.  But we will have to see.

[DesertFox]

Good news if true:

 

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Good news if true:

 

 

This is not true. They can have troubles with supply, but they aren't surrounded

[BletchleyGeek]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Good news if true:

 

 

Sure there has been heavy fighting in the area for the past 72 hours. 

[akd]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Good news if true:

 

 

Some caution on sourcing and the Uralvagonzavod report:

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Some caution on sourcing and the Uralvagonzavod report:

This applies to everything you find on Twitter, Facebook or Telegramm. I however wouldn´t worry too much. We will learn eventually anyways.

[Combatintman]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Something hit Russian BTR-82A. I doubt this is Javelin

 

 

There seems to be some plunging in the projectile's trajectory.  The projectile can be seen first at the 4 second mark which is the first red circle on the image.  Follow it from there ...

The range is very approximate - I used the BTR as my reference measurement.  If you look at the second to last circle before impact and follow the projectile from there, that is where the plunging is most obvious.  Not saying it is a Javelin, just something that has plunged.