How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[General Jack Ripper]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So I gotta start by asking: are you honestly engaging in a discussion here and want to explore ideas?  Because you are coming across as a guy whose mind is made up and no amount of rational discussion is going to matter.

The rational discussion I've received has been for people to tell me I'm wrong, then tell me to read 275 pages of forum posts.

I work for a living. Give me a break.

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

(e.g. why does the internet still work for Ukraine?)

Starlink.

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is not true, in fact it is very not true below about 10k feet.

Okay. What about all the other altitudes?

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The fact that Russian forces did not set the basic pre-condition of gaining air superiority is a demonstration of their problem, not Ukraine's.  Plenty of evidence of Ukrainian UAV strikes online to demonstrate that we really are in more of an airpower stalemate and that is bad for an invading force.

I do think the Russians had the plan to establish air superiority, they failed to do so. There were a ****load of cruise missile attacks on radar sites and AA positions early on, but the Ukrainians proliferate mobile systems just like the Russians do.
I don't think a complete absence of threat was ever in the cards, but being able to cruise around largely unmolested at the higher altitudes you mentioned is still a huge advantage, and the complete absence of UKR air power these days is a big disadvantage to the defenders.

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The Russian Navy is definitely still a factor.

Thank you.

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If for the sole question, "why have they not used it yet?  that said sea control will likely not be decisive, nor has it been decisive so far.

Which makes me wonder one burning question, "Are they waiting for something else to happen first?"
I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out.

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However, it is a layered issue.  Political defeat, military defeat, economic defeat - if we are talking military defeat, well then an inability to influence or shape negotiations in the direction of national interest is near the top for me.  And as we watch the bubble slide on the Russian side of the table, it is not looking good, but I will give you that the jury is still out. 

Honestly I think Putin is safe politically, unless the entire population rises up against him, but I don't see that happening yet.

Economic? Definitely. This does seem to have been a massive throw of the dice on a very shaky bet. HOWEVER: Nord Stream 1 and 2 are still pumping gas, aren't they? We'll see.

Militarily? Seems so. But like I said before, let me know when the UKR counterattack shapes up because I REALLY want to see how that plays out.

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The primary way Russia has "gone backwards" is in the will of the Ukrainian people.  This is not about terrain, it is about their willingness to fight.  I think if Russian had one a quick and fairly clean fight that will might have stayed relatively dormant; however, that "plan did not survive" and now the entire nation is galvanized in an existential fight...that is definitely "backwards" from a Russian perspective.

Yeah, but a lot of that is shaped by a media perspective. One thing is for sure, all the media and information we receive is dominated by Ukrainian sources. I'm not saying I don't believe them, but I do question things when it's this one-sided.
One thing is for sure, Ukraine isn't going to surrender, so once again it's up to Mr. Putin to throw in the towel.

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russia does have equipment advantage but it has failed to be able to really leverage that.  Why?  Well that is a million dollar question.  What we have seen is that Russian mass is not working, if it was that map would look a lot different.  I suspect it is either because the Russian war machine simply is not setup for this complexity and has fallen under its own weight, and the Ukrainians help them along with that.

What I don't get is that they really seem to have drank the kool-ade and not deployed their best stuff. Either they didn't think they needed it, or they're waiting. If they are waiting, why?
If it is a matter of them simply tripping and falling on their own faces, then Putin should trow in the towel, come to the table, and just take whatever we tell him because Russia's days as a power of any scale are well and truly over.
But for some reason, I just don't see that happening.

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You are correct on one point, this is coming down to Will.  The Russians can keep pouring men into this fight, even if they are dismounted and have no ammo or food but if they have the Will that is an option.  What you seem to be sidestepping is the other issue, the Ukrainian Will to fight.

I don't side-step that at all, I said repeatedly and many times it's up to Mr. Putin to end things. Ukraine is obviously going to fight, so this war will last as long as Putin makes it last.
That is my point and it's directly in line with everything stated here, but let me know when Ukraine invades Russia, because that would be awesome.
Russian Nationalism being destroyed by the Neo Cossack. What a reversal of history that would make!
Admittedly that's just a fever dream and I have no doubt if Russia is kicked out of Ukraine terms will be set.

IF...

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

They see this as existential and are acting as such, so that is a problem right there for the Russians, unless they want a decades old resistance blowing up in their face but frankly I can't even seeing them getting that far as that would mean the Russians actually have to control the entire country and not about 15% of it.

That assumes Russia isn't content to control 15% of the country.

That may have been the plan all along. Who can say? Putin isn't talking to CNN so we don't know.

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Lemme just close with a very important point - this is not an internet argument that anyone can "win".  I know the reflex is there to play forum games and try to "out argue each other" but that is not what is happening here.

As much as I enjoy that old forum game. I've been around here for a very long time.
I take your point though, all I was trying to do was post 'Wot I Think'. Y'all were free to ignore it.

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is a real war and people are dying in droves, so I frankly do not care who is "right or wrong" on a given Thurs because the situation is to dynamic.  But if you honestly want to contribute then do so, but this is not a contest...it is a really violent and scary puzzle.  Finally, there are people posting here who are actually in range of all those guns so let's also try and keep that in mind.

I whole-heartedly agree, which is why I'm not casting dispersions, blame, guessing at motives, propagandizing, describing anyone as hitler, or screaming to high heaven about support for one side or the other.

I just want to know whats happening, why, and how things might turn out. I gave my best assessment according to the information I have received over the past few weeks, layered it atop an assessment of likely capability going forward into the future, and made my conclusion.

This war will go on until Putin throws in the towel. Period.

I say the best way to get there is to kick his dudes back across the border with their tails between their legs, and until that happens victory will be incomplete. There will be that lingering doubt on the other side about, "If we try it again it might work next time." The problem is the UKR dudes are going to have to do it themselves. I don't think there will be a no-fly zone established, I don't think NATO will get involved, and beyond sending money and weapons and few crazy redditors trying to join the foreign legion, Ukraine is in this by themselves. The real test is whether or not they can do it. They have the will to fight, but can they physically do it?

I don't know. We'll see.

Thanks for the conversation.

[BFCElvis]

26 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

....... I'd appreciate some extra info I apparently don't posses, and the Institute for the Study of War doesn't possess either.

Todays key takeaways from the Institute for the Study of War line up pretty well with the guys have been saying around here:

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
• Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing a regimental commander.
• Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
• Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
• Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa.
• Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to successfully contest Russian air operations.

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/page/279/#comment-1913064

You're a little late to the party so you aren't familiar with the way we (Battlefront) have been handling this thread. We've had to keep a very short leash because it's the kind of subject that can go badly off the rails. But because it has been such a great source of information we're committed to keeping the thread alive. Most reports are viewed with skepticism until we get more verification.  There are several people who are living in Kyiv giving us updates. This was a great part of The_Capt's post and I think it sums up everyone's viewpoint of this thread:

Quote

Lemme just close with a very important point - this is not an internet argument that anyone can "win".  I know the reflex is there to play forum games and try to "out argue each other" but that is not what is happening here.  For the most part no one really has a full picture of that is going on so we are sharing information and trying to build the best picture we can.  So the usual internet argument games do not apply here.  If you have a different assessment based on information you have, present it and we can all get a better picture.  This is a real war and people are dying in droves, so I frankly do not care who is "right or wrong" on a given Thurs because the situation is to dynamic.  But if you honestly want to contribute then do so, but this is not a contest...it is a really violent and scary puzzle.  Finally, there are people posting here who are actually in range of all those guns so let's also try and keep that in mind.

You've been a forum member forever. As far as I recall you've always seemed like a good guy. I believe getting off on the wrong foot in this thread may have started with this inappropriate post:
  

2 hours ago, riptides said:

How about start thinking?

 

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

I was curious too,  seemed very out in the open. Brave or dumb...I lean to the latter.

The armor on SP artillery is thin and designed to stop fragments and perhaps bullets up to 50 cal.

Im sure they Russians will try to protect them, shoot and scoot to try and prevent being hit by counter battery fire.

They could be prime targets for drones and who knows, the Russian performance being what it’s been and lack of execution of even the basics they may not practice shoot and scoot and just yolo it.

Edited March 17, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

Claim for death of Col. Igor Nikolaev, 3rd Motor Rifle Division:

 

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Anyway, I've got a bursting headache, so if anyone wants to actually refute any of the bullet points I made in my first post feel free to PM me, I'd appreciate some extra info I apparently don't posses, and the Institute for the Study of War doesn't possess either.

This is pretty good thanks,

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17

I don’t think this changes the main assessments going on here but there is some good analysis here.

[Cobetco]

13 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

What I don't get is that they really seem to have drank the kool-ade and not deployed their best stuff. Either they didn't think they needed it, or they're waiting. If they are waiting, why?

the answer is they already have deployed their best stuff. one can assume the t14, and t90am are nothing more than parade pieces, at least right now.  the only kit that doesn't have photos after having been abandoned or destroyed is that clownish terminator thing. but that also may also just be a parade piece.

[General Jack Ripper]

4 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

You've been a forum member forever. As far as I recall you've always seemed like a good guy. I believe getting off on the wrong foot in this thread may have started with this inappropriate post:

I hadn't seen the March 17 report yet. I've been busy reading.

And yes, that's why I just let that comment slide right off my eyeballs, and my brain. But I simply cannot resist the 'Muh Winter War' meme. It's like a cat with a laser pointer. Gets me every time. As far as the previous one, well, let's just say it my way of making a statement about politics by rolling my eyes and groaning for all to hear.

I do get a bit irritated at being told to 'learn to read' given I could read before kindergarten. So I apologize for getting snippy. But I really do think drawing conclusions on a war that's been going for a matter of weeks, when we have no idea when or how it will end, is foolish. To turn around and tell someone they're wrong without at least explaining, with one or two sentences at least why you say that is also foolish.

I also think it's dumb to say something like, "It's ovah!!!" When the example of all of human history is before you.

It's over when BOTH sides say it's over, and not one nanosecond before then.

[General Jack Ripper]

1 minute ago, Cobetco said:

the answer is they already have deployed their best stuff. one can assume the t14, and t90am are nothing more than parade pieces, at least right now.  the only kit that doesn't have photos after having been abandoned or destroyed is that clownish terminator thing. but that also may also just be a parade piece.

That's not what I meant, but I have to bow out. I meant units as opposed to specific pieces of equipment or vehicles.
I shouldn't have said the word 'stuff'.

[Fenris]

Noticed this just now re loss of RF Colonel - I can't read it and don't have time to try and verify

 

[c3k]

3 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Likely that he volunteered, or was encouraged to volunteer to boost morale.

I cannot imagine any US squadron commander NOT flying combat missions (that's at the LTC level). Wing commander would do so, as well, but only on occasion (COL or one star)... (<- age and proficiency would limit the Wing commander. No one wants to be "that guy" who is a burden on his warfighters just to prove he can still go out.)

So, no, I don't see it unusual that a Russian regimental commander (equivalent to US squadron commander) would be flying combat missions. That's what's meant by "leadership": get out there and LEAD.

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

But I really do think drawing conclusions on a war that's been going for a matter of weeks, when we have no idea when or how it will end, is foolish.

Oh real conclusions are really hard to come by.  I mean we can say the last three weeks have not gone well for Russia and there is a lot of evidence as to why that is (some of it baffling, frankly).  I think in terms of options spaces some things are “over”, like a short war.

As to when it ends well I would argue that it is more than “when Putin decides”, although that is definitely one way.  The others:

- Will to fight gives out on one side or the other.  If either the Ukrainians or Russians give up, then it is over.  What that will take is speculation but there is a collective human limit (aside: you clearly think political warfare is off the table for the West and I have to ask why as it is in Russian Will that this may yield options?).  I suspect the Russians are in a weaker position than Ukrainians but we will see.

- Capability to fight fails.  I think this is Steve’s angle that the Russians are closer on this one than most understand.  My answer is “depends”, if Russia digs in and tries to hold onto what they have they could sustain that for awhile.  Ukrainians would need to be cut off from the west and ground down but honestly, I do not think the Russians have the horsepower for that kind of offensive action without full on mobilization, and that takes us back to Will.

-  Power to fight.  Again, without being cut off from western support Ukraine has an edge here.  Clock is ticking on Russian economic power, it will not break overnight but time is not on their side.

I am still trying to figure out what to look for, let alone predict what will or will not happen.

[THH149]

Why on earth did the Russians attack in the Rasputitsa phase of the seasons? I think I know the answer: overconfidence!

But still, why do that if they know their tanks and vehicles are going to be confined to roads? Even if they're onverconfident, any defence is going to be stronger against a narrow thrust, and the attackers supply lines are vulnerable to ambush. So so overconfident!

And why don't they know their vehicles are going to get stuck in the mud?

The list of fixes required to bring them up to be near-peer to NATO is going to long and extensive and costly and undoable if their ppl arent empowered, their access to technology is zero and have a crippled industrial base. 

Zelensky and some retired US generals have been saying the next 10 days (from around March 15) are going to be the critical days for Ukraine to survive, after which the additional weapons the US promised and NATO have begun delivering would have been fully deployed. 

Will Ukraine start their counteroffensives from March 25th?

 

 

[Machor]

40 minutes ago, billbindc said:

"Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia."

This isn't happening...or at least not in any way that actual disarmament occurs.

 

25 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

its just the way things were worded gave me the impression that the author was thinking Zelensky should take the deal. but that is my mistake to have read it that way, and I suspect upon re-reading that its the turks who are flavoring it that way, not the BBC.

Kalın has lumped 'disarmament' with fluff (called "face-saving elements" in the article). If he's not being outright stupid in doing so, my take is 'disarmament' refers to the drivel Russian news outlets started spewing about Ukraine developing WMDs before the invasion, once things started going south for Russia.

[Ultradave]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

 

, my take is 'disarmament' refers to the drivel Russian news outlets started spewing about Ukraine developing WMDs before the invasion, once things started going south for Russia.

If that's the case they can just say, "Ok, done"  

 

Dave

[akd]

A few American volunteers fighting somewhere in Ukraine:

https://funker530.com/video/american-foreign-fighters-maneuver-to-cover-under-russian-artillery/

[General Jack Ripper]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

where did I ever say that?

You're right. I misread your post replying to me.
I blame the advil not working fast enough.

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

A few American volunteers fighting somewhere in Ukraine:

https://funker530.com/video/american-foreign-fighters-maneuver-to-cover-under-russian-artillery/

The best of luck to them (despite any quick conclusions from the video).

[General Jack Ripper]

2 hours ago, db_zero said:

I don’t think Putin cares. He’s already flattened cities in Chechnya, took part in flattening and gassing cities in Syria. Why stop now?

If the objective is to negotiate for better terms, literally drum-firing a major city into rubble isn't going to help him one bit.
What he would need to do, is demonstrate an ability to hold onto the territory he has taken, and demonstrate the inability of the UKR to take it back.

That's if he's interested in negotiation, but the Russian has used a pretense of negotiation as a ruse before.
I know your comment is from a couple hours ago, (geez I don't want to be accused of being behind the curve already!) but my later point about kicking him back across the border applies here. I think the best outcome is to kick his ***, until he cries uncle.

But that's some starry-eyed dreaming there and I don't think things will be that clean or easy.

[dan/california]

The Russians determination to lose this expensively seems undiminished. I really don't know how else to put it.

[dan/california]

Oryx is on team Steve.

[The Steppenwulf]

5 hours ago, riptides said:

I found this to be a good read. Especially on the food part.

https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/putins-killing-machine-that-isnt-working/

 

 

Dog food  - tin pot army!

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Oryx is on team Steve.

If those are the 600 series Switchblade, they are terrifyingly nasty: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade , up to 80km range!

[Vacillator]

After the earlier comments about the BBC (and I'm no BBC apologist) I thought this was interesting:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785679

[sross112]

Lots of discussion on possible ends and I was thinking today after someone posted that Biden named Putin a war criminal. I don't doubt that this invasion will last a few more weeks at least and if the past performance is predicative of future performance I believe the RA will be bled to death on the steppes of Ukraine. In the meantime if Putin is actually indicted by the Hague more options become available for Russia.

Putin doesn't have to disappear, he can be taken into custody by the military and FSB. They point the fingers at him for the Russian people and the world and lay out a ton of evidence for his demise and hand him over for trial. That removes him from power, he is permanently out of their way and they would have their scapegoat so they can play the "he lied to us, we didn't find out until it was too late" card. 

The new government will cede back all territory, give token reparations and apologies and beg the world for forgiveness. The Ukrainians will have a temporary win, the west will cave and assist this "new" Russia like it did in 91 and in 20-30 years it will all start over again. 

[DesertFox]