How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

Referring to Mr. Annoying Army dude in the video I posted above--resources like liveuamap (which I should remind you is run by patriotic Ukrainians) does not reflect any reversals--only additional, marginal gains by the Russians. You'd think this is the first place you'd see reversals reflected on a map, if they were happening on the ground. Not to say that the gains aren't indeed marginal and coming at a very high cost to Russia.

Clearly we're still in dense fog of war with regard to facts on the ground. I still don't believe the Russian Army is on the brink of systemic collapse, although clearly some BTGs have been battered out of existence. I get the impression there's some overexaggerating of how strong a hand Ukraine has at the negotiation table. If these marginal gains continue to happen, Russia may well be in howitzer range of central Kyiv very soon. That would be undesirable.

[The Steppenwulf]

21 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

They have the supply and logistics to keep ammo/fuel/etc to their artillery.  That is very much in question right now.

I agree, it's very questionable that the Russians have enough munitions to keep up sustained bombardment on a city the size of Kiev. I think the "threat" of getting howitzers within range of the city is merely a bargaining chip to add weight to Putin's negotiation position. 

The evidence is all indicating that militarily, the Russians have entered the 'end game' in this conflict, their position is only going to get weaker, and with that, Putin's way out of this mess without something... anything that he can spin as a "successful operation" will diminish too.

My reading is that Putin is close to being objectively defeated militarily, and he's now trying to mitigate the political fall out before it's too late. If that's true, at best he's thinking if he can return to the default territorial position (before the invasion) and maintain his powerbase in the Kremlin without any backlash, he'll be relieved. 

I suspect Ukraine's leadership is probably stalling on terms for the moment, because they need to find out what intel informs about the military picture so they can better judge the 'end game'. 

[Poorlaggedman]

I first thought of Combat Mission and (once again) the sudden relevance of recent Combat Mission games when the war popped off as a serious invasion, just like it was with the Syria content. I'm sensing a pattern. It's mildly interesting to see the use of these conventional systems, but that doesn't make up for the tremendous loss of life and minds. 

 

Being an avid war gamer and veteran, it seems to me that there has to be an 'off-ramp' that helps the Russian government try to safe face, at least in their own country. It was obviously a colossal mistake well-beyond our Iraq invasion. There's about no chance that the Russians settle for major concessions after this hard-fought slaughter. I don't see the Ukrainians settling if the tide turns either. You cannot ask proud people-groups to accept bad terms, it's just not realistic. Barring a full-scale revolution, which is unlikely, Russia is not going to withdraw and admit defeat and pay reparations. 

 

I'm terrified (legitimately) for the first time in my life that we're gonna get in a major hot war with a nuclear power which is probably capable of making life hell by non-nuclear means alone before it loses. I don't think my U.S. government or other western allies, have the wherewithal to settle for anything less than regime change from a hot war if we got into one. I'm also not sure China would stay out of it. I'm not sure if Russian leadership is sane and if the Russian people will turn on their government fast enough, especially when the cost could be humiliation. There's a lot of wishful thinking going on.

 

I just want this crisis managed without my idiot politicians (from all parties) getting us nuked or getting our power grid knocked out. This is too much.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Poorlaggedman

[Fenris]

Ironic one of these seeing the same sort of service again

 

[sburke]

53 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Referring to Mr. Annoying Army dude in the video I posted above--resources like liveuamap (which I should remind you is run by patriotic Ukrainians) does not reflect any reversals--only additional, marginal gains by the Russians. You'd think this is the first place you'd see reversals reflected on a map, if they were happening on the ground. Not to say that the gains aren't indeed marginal and coming at a very high cost to Russia.

Clearly we're still in dense fog of war with regard to facts on the ground. I still don't believe the Russian Army is on the brink of systemic collapse, although clearly some BTGs have been battered out of existence. I get the impression there's some overexaggerating of how strong a hand Ukraine has at the negotiation table. If these marginal gains continue to happen, Russia may well be in howitzer range of central Kyiv very soon. That would be undesirable.

okay so this whole thing about us only seeing one side of the battle.. who's fault is that?  Folks here are avidly combing ANYTHING they can get.  There was a post a while back where the Russians were showing off a couple items they'd captured.  There has been some analysis of the UKR retreat from around Kherson.  The problem is there is a huge dearth of decent info/video from the Russian side.  We get our best info on Russian successes from Haiduk and radio intercepts of freaking out Russians. Oh wait yeah that doesn't reflect successes.  Nor does the 4 count em 4 dead Major Generals.

Want to guess why that might be the case?  It is 20 days now since the Russian Blitzkrieg launched an attack from the Belarus border towards Kiev which is 60 freakin miles away and they still aren't there.  Putin just keeps saying they are still on plan.  Which f'n plan is that?  last I'd heard the plan was to be in Kiev in 3 days.

Brovary is only 13 miles away so if the Russian plan is just to build up an arty park, they are already in range.

Let's stop pretending like the fog of war is hiding the possible truth that the war is going Russia's way even if slowly.  I am not sure Ukraine has enough tractors to haul away the whole Russian army, but they are making a pretty heroic effort.

Edited March 17, 2022 by sburke

[Homo_Ferricus]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

okay so this whole thing about us only seeing one side of the battle.. who's fault is that?  Folks here are avidly combing ANYTHING they can get.  There was a post a while back where the Russians were showing off a couple items they'd captured.  There has been some analysis of the UKR retreat from around Kherson.  The problem is there is a huge dearth of decent info/video from the Russian side.  We get our best info on Russian successes from Haiduk and radio intercepts of freaking out Russians. Oh wait yeah that doesn't reflect successes.  Nor does the 4 count em 4 dead Major Generals.

Want to guess why that might be the case?  It is 20 days now since the Russian Blitzkrieg launched an attack from the Belarus border towards Kiev which is 60 freakin miles away and they still aren't there.  Putin just keeps saying they are still on plan.  Which f'n plan is that?  last I'd heard the plan was to be in Kiev in 3 days.

I'm not arguing that things are going to plan for Russia. I'm also not complaining that people here haven't been posting more Russian media or whatever. Just sharing my understanding of the situation to temper the sense of, "Any minute now the entire country will collapse in a heap." mentality that is well represented here. Maybe I should reaffirm that I am in fact rooting for Ukraine... Though I don't celebrate Russian deaths--my mother got us out of Russia so that my brother and I wouldn't be conscripted. There goes I but for the grace of god.

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Brovary is only 13 miles away so if the Russian plan is just to build up an arty park, they are already in range.

Let's stop pretending like the fog of war is hiding the possible truth that the war is going Russia's way even if slowly.  I am not sure Ukraine has enough tractors to haul away the whole Russian army, but they are making a pretty heroic effort.

I don't think Russians are in control of Brovary. They got spanked there and pulled back, far as I can tell.

Again, not suggesting ANYTHING has gone to plan for Russia. It hasn't. Just that there is evidence that Russia still has some capacity to grasp at, and maybe get, more leverage prior to making whatever sort of agreement with Ukraine. As I said before, they might be gearing up for a second wind offensive to get as much as they can prior to a settlement, NOT that they'd achieve any of their original operational objectives. Also wouldn't be ashamed to admit this is wrong if the fog clears and it turns out that the marginal gains we're seeing are in fact just uncoordinated "zombie twitches".

[BletchleyGeek]

NASA FIRMS taking stock of the extent of the devastation in Mariupol

 

If you put together all those red cells, the proportion of the city covered is quite significant.

If we wanted, we could totally take a look of what's going on from the other side. We just need to tune into China's Central Television, who have the one and only (?) journalist embedded in the Russian Armed Forces (I think somewhere near Mariupol).

Regarding actual status on the ground, I think that even resources like liveuamap have trouble catching up with developments. As far as I understand, everybody considers Mariupol to be "encircled" but liveuamap shows clearly that there is still a corridor of terrain that isn't "controlled" by the Russian forces. Probably that terrain is under heavy fire and generally not safe to traverse during the day, but I wonder if we're just trying to simplify a very complex situation in a way that fits our preconceptions for "siege" or "battle".

BTW, in the FIRMS image above, the suburb of Kalmuyskiy (47.15485236945717, 37.607600632082026) lies right at the gap in the liveuamap and seems to have been hit pretty hard. I guess that the Russian forces are trying very hard to take it over, and close the ring around Mariupol for a fact.

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I watched the video (for the record, I've seen VASTLY more annoying people than him) and I found it to be a good one.  For all the right reasons he's trying to point out that we might be missing something.  However, I completely disagree with his argument that censoring Russian media is a bad thing.  Clearly he wasn't paying attention in 2014/2015 when Russian media was being taken at face value by many in the West.  That played a role in confusing and softening positions that should have been taken against Russia at the time.  Sorry, but most people don't know any better.  Flat Earth Society excluded, because they really are onto sometime

Where he missed an opportunity was in his counter-counter-argument towards the end where he points to pieces of evidence that seem to corroborate the Ukrainian point of view that Russia is losing this badly.  For example, when he (earlier) in the video pointed out that Russia was making advances "everywhere" he left out that they barely moved the frontline in over a week.  Sorry, when a country invades another country by choice it shouldn't have advances measured in single digit KMs per week.  That's just failure right there. 

He also made a big mistake with the offhand comment that the Russian "operational pause" was a normal part of combat, just like the Coalition did in Iraq in 2003.  Er... in Iraq the pause was after eliminating almost all of Iraq's forces and having took over an extremely large amount of terrain.  The pause, so to speak, was not because of enemy resistance as is the case in this war.

Soooooo... I wish we had more information about what's going on on both sides.  That would be great as we are missing details and sometimes getting bad information.  However, that doesn't mean we are unable to figure out what's going on.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

"Any minute now the entire country will collapse in a heap."

As one of the most regular voices of this point, I'll remind you that I'm saying that the ingredients for such a sudden collapse are already present.  I've also explained how this has happened in past wars, either operationally (Battle of the Bulge) or strategically (Russian Empire in 1917).  Nobody saw it coming until it happened.  Other situations, like Afghanistan 2022 or Iraq in 2014 and again Isis in 2019, were more predictable.

My point has been and still is that Russia's military situation right now is on a knife's edge.  It could continue on for a while before collapsing. There could be a cease fire before collapsing.  There could be a withdrawal after a coup in Russia before collapsing.  All kinds of what ifs could happen.  But if none of those things happen soon, I think we'll see a collapse.  As I've said, the ingredients for it are there already.

Steve

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As one of the most regular voices of this point, I'll remind you that I'm saying that the ingredients for such a sudden collapse are already present.  I've also explained how this has happened in past wars, either operationally (Battle of the Bulge) or strategically (Russian Empire in 1917).  Nobody saw it coming until it happened.  Other situations, like Afghanistan 2022 or Iraq in 2014 and again Isis in 2019, were more predictable.

My point has been and still is that Russia's military situation right now is on a knife's edge.  It could continue on for a while before collapsing. There could be a cease fire before collapsing.  There could be a withdrawal after a coup in Russia before collapsing.  All kinds of what ifs could happen.  But if none of those things happen soon, I think we'll see a collapse.  As I've said, the ingredients for it are there already.

Steve

Can you imagine the pressure Zelensky is under. He is 96% percent sure he is winning, but he can't be sure how many days/weeks it will take to actually win. Everyone of those days probably cost a thousand civilian lives with 100 of them children, every day is at least another 100,000 refugees, and, and...  And he soldiers on acting like a sane person. If He has made bad call since the Russian tanks rolled I don't know what it was. Just incredible!

Edited March 17, 2022 by dan/california
extra word

[Battlefront.com]

This Zelensky quote was just posted to the Ukrainian Armed Forces FB page:

Quote

My priorities in negotiations are absolutely clear. End of war, guarantees of security, sovereignty, restoration of territorial integrity, real guarantees for our country, real protection for our country.

I see some real sticking points for the Russians here.  "Restoration of territorial integrity" being the biggest one.

Sure doesn't sound like Ukraine is ready to fold.

Steve

[Vergeltungswaffe]

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'm not arguing that things are going to plan for Russia. I'm also not complaining that people here haven't been posting more Russian media or whatever. Just sharing my understanding of the situation to temper the sense of, "Any minute now the entire country will collapse in a heap." mentality that is well represented here.

yeah I know and I only picked your post as it was the last one that mentioned it.  it wasn't really specifically directed at you.  Sorry.     I just wanted to tackle the point that we don't necessarily need the UA map and all the UKR videos to know with certainty that Russia's plan went out the window .. like within the first day or two.

I don't know what the current plan is and sadly for them, I don't think the Russians do either.  They didn't include a plan B.  Incredible as it might sound, they went with the most over the top ridiculously optimistic scenario and just said, meh we don't need an alternate.  Within all the other dumb a55 things they have done, that has to rank right about near the top.  Now they are stuck.  UKR is in control of the negotiations whether Putin wants to recognize it or not.  There is a lot of talk in the West about giving Russia an off ramp.  I don't hear that coming from the Ukrainians.  I think more or less that is Kraze's position.  The only off ramp he wants to hear about is one that leads to hell for Russia.  can't say I blame him.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This Zelensky quote was just posted to the Ukrainian Armed Forces FB page:

I see some real sticking points for the Russians here.  "Restoration of territorial integrity" being the biggest one.

Sure doesn't sound like Ukraine is ready to fold.

Steve

They have fought like Spartans but smarter. Just saw a credible report that the French Foreign Ministry thinks the Russians are not negotiating seriously. I wonder if Putin's on generals know that, I wonder if the colonels do. Because the upper midlevel command on the ground must have pretty good idea how badly they NEED to be negotiating. The four dead generals and twenty odd other senior officers being exhibit A. the Ukrainians need to start putting it out there that the first couple of senior officers to surrender their whole units get an apartment in Brazil, a Ukrainian passport, and some cash.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They have fought like Spartans but smarter. Just saw a credible report that the French Foreign Ministry thinks the Russians are not negotiating seriously.

I don't think either side is negotiating seriously because Russia can't afford to give Ukraine much without it looking like a defeat.  On the other hand, Ukraine can't give up much without looking like it's surrendering.  Of course, Russia is in the worse position because it started out the war demanding all kinds of silly things that are totally unrealistic, especially now that it is clear the battlefield initiative is shifting over to Ukraine.

Someone I trust (on the ground there) is reading between the lines on the "real guarantees for our country, real protection for our country" demand means having a nuclear armed nation treaty bound to defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again.  It is doubtful that any nation would step up to do that at this point, nor would Russia likely sign off on accepting such a treaty as valid.

Basically, it seems that Zelensky is saying "OK, Russia, we agree to not pursue membership to NATO.  However, we do require NATO to fight you if you invade our territory".  Article 5 by another means.  Obviously that isn't what Russia wants so that, plus the "territorial integrity" issue, seems to indicate that Ukraine is more or less defining what the terms are for a Russian surrender.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

People like Putin have only one attitude when they negotiate. I can promise anything because I am not going to honor it anyway. 

[dan/california]

Putin is stripping forces from all his other conquest little projects to reinforce failure in Ukraine. This is how the whole thing comes apart at once. If I were Assad i would be looking hard for a plan B, because he isn't getting the next rotation from Uncle Vlad, he will lucky if the current one doesn't just disappear in the middle of the night.

Edited March 17, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

More UA artillery turkey shoots against densely packed RA laagers (2 parts).

I can't get the left hand map to show showing all the strung out Russian column/LOCs, but comparing it with the stonk video (and so many others like it in prior days), it gives one a sense of how completely and utterly roadbound the Russian army remains.

In 1983 -- yup, 39 years ago -- I remember asking an Afghan mujahideen what he thought of the Russian soldiers and he shrugged and said:  we have no idea, they never get out of their vehicles.

Plus ca change.

Also, one would think that in a properly functioning logistical effort, most of those trucks would be rolling back and forth, busy as bees, ferrying shells and whatnot for the 'big push'.  Not just sitting there waiting to be pulverized.

Edited March 17, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[John Kettler]

17 hours ago, Baneman said:

Isn't there at least one Moscow in the States ?
That could make for some tense double-checking of your targeting co-ordinates !

Baneman,

There are at least 30 towns in the US named Moscow.

https://www.sidmartinbio.org/how-many-states-in-the-us-have-a-city-named-moscow/

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

72nd mech.brigade hummered Russian column with artillery in Brovary area, east from Kyiv. Probably 2 days ago.

 

Haiduk,

Would say that's more like smote than hammered. Looks like the ground exploded over a considerable distance.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Humor hasn't been the easiest thing to find lately, but Oryx came up with a doozy occasioned by the very close range video shot at Kherson Airport in the aftermath of the Ukrainian MRL strike.

 

Oryx

 

@oryxspioenkop

·

13h

 

We’re currently doing rock, paper scissors to decide who has to count this

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bogdan Vasylchenko 

 

@BVasylchenko

· 13h

A better version of the video of the Kherson airport strike by 

 

 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

 

 

 

 

 

462.3K views

1:56 / 2:05

[John Kettler]

17 hours ago, TheVulture said:

 

 

Depending on a whole series of factors, including which model of the SA-10 and provided sensors, these should provide significant capability to deal with Klub and friends. Ukraine already has some of these in service. The SA-12 not only is even more capable, but if the second missile type for the system is provided, it should be able to defeat Tochka series TBM easily and have a fighting chance against Iskander. My recollection s that we assessed the missile to have even limited capability against US SLBM attack. But we had MIRVed warheads not the MARV (MAneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) the Iskander supposedly has. The indigenous GROM-M supplied by Poland is far superior to the SA-14 aka Igla/GROM.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by John Kettler

[Fenris]

Gets more interesting towards the end.  Would appear UKR morale is pretty good.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Fenris

[John Kettler]

13 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Not more, than ATGM ) And yes, you judge about "mobile warfare" only by territorial defense footage. I don't know either AGS-17 are in TD or not. But you can mount AGS on pick-up and get mobile thing ) 

Haiduk,

In Afghanistan, the Russians attached them to the tops of BTR-60s in order to obtain desperately needed high angle fire to deal with muj firing downward from positions above the elevation limits for their tanks, APCs and BMP-1s. Am pretty sure these days they've got some atop MTLB series, and BMD series as well. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 17, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR artillery strike on rear supply and gathering point of 35th Army in 3 km SE from Polis'ke town (20 km from Belarusian border), Kyiv oblast. Data of video on drone camera is today. 16th of March

I wonder what weapon could reach it in about 90+ km from current frontline. Smerch MLRS Smerch/ Vilkha?

 

Haiduk,

Wiki lists 90 km as max range for Smerch, and article below lists 130 km for Vilkha-M. To me, it's beyond bizarre there is no camouflage netting visible and insane that, in the face of modern weaponry, the Russians didn't bother to bring the pretty much revolutionary Nakidka with them, either. 

https://www.army-technology.com/projects/vilkha-m-multiple-launch-rocket-system/

Regards,

John Kettler