How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

35 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I have been reading this topic everyday for the last two weeks and signed up to thank you guys.

This topic is the most informative source that I have seen on the internet for understanding the realities of the war in Ukraine.

 

Keep up the good work guys.

Welcome aboard!

[BletchleyGeek]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians shelled the shore of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district of Odesa oblast. Will the night landing come? Putin decided to taste all games of toy soldiers...

 

And we were just wondering... The timing of events is uncanny, is there a race going on?

[Erwin]

This from CivDiv posted in General Discussion forum seemed very insightful re the Russia-Ukraine situation:

 

 

Almost unbelievable and incomprehensible (and shocking) is his thesis that the Russian education system broke down over 25 years and that means that Russia has one of the least educated and worst-trained population of any "advanced nation".  ...And that its leadership comes only from a pool of about 150 people who are competent to run a nation.  ...And the final nail in the coffin (according to Zaihan) is that partially due to the massive losses from WW1, the Stalin era and then WW2, that Russia's population is declining and it cannot for long support itself or remain a viable nation...  So, Ukraine may be its last "hurrah"... 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Erwin

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, sawomi said:

I found this one particular interesting:

[removed because racist organizations are by definition not interesting]

The Occidental Observer is a purveyor of anti-Semitic and far right nationalist trash. No thanks. 

[Kinophile]

Seems a bit stupid to attempt a landing at Odessa when your friendly crunchies are getting kicked in the balls and haven't even taken Mykolaiv yet.

Seems like you'll just throw yourself against a prepared, determined, supplied, freely operating and undamaged strong point...from the sea... 

And useless as a distraction. And wasteful of missiles you'll need if UKR starts taking back Kherson Oblast.

So....'bout right for this crop of Russian planners.

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Erwin said:

And the final nail in the coffin (according to Zaihan) is that partially due to the massive losses from WW1, the Stalin era and then WW2, that Russia's population is declining and it cannot for long support itself or remain a viable nation...  So, Ukraine may be its last "hurrah"... 

The last bit about Russian demographics is a long term problem not directly related to any of those previous issues.  Poor health care, a high level of alcoholism and a few others in there have been causing a declining birth rate in Russia.  There was a period where that was reduced but mostly from immigration changes, not birth rates.

Not an issue specifically Russian.  Japan has a similar problem due to a lack of immigration.

In 2006, in a bid to compensate for the country's demographic decline, the Russian government started simplifying immigration laws and launched a state program "for providing assistance to voluntary immigration of ethnic Russians from former Soviet republics".^[42] In August 2012, as the country saw its first demographic growth since the 1990s, President Putin declared that Russia's population could reach 146 million by 2025, mainly as a result of immigration.^[43] New citizenship rules introduced in April 2014 allowing eligible citizens from former Soviet republics to obtain Russian citizenship, have gained strong interest among Russian-speaking residents of those countries (i.e. Russians, Germans, Belarusians and Ukrainians).^[

Demographics of Russia - Wikipedia

 

[Sir Lancelot]

8 hours ago, db_zero said:

Right now China is embarrassed at Russia's performance and indicating they would prefer a negotiated settlement and restraint. They have also indicated they want to avoid being sanctioned. Watching the reaction of average Chinese citizens on the street, most indicate they don't approve of the invasion and side with the Ukrainians, but also of note is if Russia was attacked then China should help Russia.

I'm actually Chinese, and my observation of Chinese netizens' reaction is actually very much the opposite.  The great majority of ordinary Chinese citizens seem to buy into Russia's propaganda (b/c that's what they are fed on Chinese media) and many are very pro-Putin.  They lay the blame at Ukraine and the West's doorstep, and feel that Russia is helping China by checking the West's expansionism and disrupting their containment of China's own rise.  The strong nationalist sentiment that Xi Jinping has been cultivating through propaganda and autocratic leadership is very worrying...

Edited March 16, 2022 by Sir Lancelot

[DesertFox]

Hi-Res Pictures on the arty-strike at Kherson Airbase:

Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames (thedrive.com)

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

 ...And that its leadership comes only from a pool of about 150 people who are competent to r̶u̶n̶ loot a nation.

Fixed that for ya....

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Hi-Res Pictures on the arty-strike at Kherson Airbase:

Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames (thedrive.com)

 

 

Early claims of 30 helicopters taken out may turn out to be right if that's most of their aviation fuel going up.

Edited March 16, 2022 by billbindc

[db_zero]

34 minutes ago, Sir Lancelot said:

I'm actually Chinese, and my observation of Chinese netizens' reaction is actually very much the opposite.  The great majority of ordinary Chinese citizens seem to buy into Russia's propaganda (b/c that's what they are fed on Chinese media) and many are very pro-Putin.  They lay the blame at Ukraine and the West's doorstep, and feel that Russia is checking the West's expansionism and disrupting their containment of China's own rise.  It's a very worrying trend... 

I’ve seen the pro Russian views posted by Chinese netizens as well as in person interviews where different views expressed. Even in the pro Ukrainian view, opinions of the Wests expansionism is expressed, but support for Russia invading was disapproved and it was largely seen as between Russia and Ukraine.

What I did find interesting was an online post/video by a very angry Chinese citizen in Ukraine who told “keyboard warriors” in China to just STFU. It was getting back to Ukrainians and was making life very difficult. In fact he was stopped and said he had to tell Ukrainians he was Japanese. For a Chinese citizen to claim to be Japanese that’s pretty embarrassing.

I have no doubt there is support for Russia in China and I’ve seen both pro and against. Where it actually stands overall is is debatable, but even here in the US we have media, internet celebrities and some prominent figures with large following supporting Russia and Putin and they have loud voices. 

What really matters is what Xi and the party think and do and for now that appears on the side of caution.

Edited March 16, 2022 by db_zero

[dan/california]

We should have sent these already. I am guessing this is the U.S. way of telling the Russians their time is up.

[dan/california]

The Ukrainians are not going to let the Russians reorganize at leisure.

[pintere]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians are not going to let the Russians reorganize at leisure.

Well if the Russian army really has been holding back all this time (as many have stated) then now’s probably a good time for them to reveal their trump card.
 

But if they can’t even handle Ukrainian tractor drivers I wouldn’t be hedging my bets on them.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

Just goes to show how big a rout the Ukrainians suffered in the south, and how poorly their initial counterattack went.

There are some details about this already emerging.  One account is that the Ukrainian military had a key unit of the defense out on maneuvers when the attack happened.  It was, therefore, caught scattered and out in the open.  This resulted in the defense force being neither at the frontline defenses keeping Crimea bottled up, nor back at their Kherson base on the west bank of the Dnepr.  There was quite a few videos and pictures of a column of trucks and artillery that were decimated (probably by helicopters) on their way back to Kherson.  Some hasty defenses were made to oppose the bridge crossing, but weren't enough to keep the Russians out.  Reserves came in and were enough to temporarily kick the Russians back to the other side, but not enough to keep it that way.

So yeah, anybody that think someone like me is ignoring Ukrainian screwups... think again!  This was an epic, potentially strategic, blunder.  If the Russians weren't doing such a bad job of this war it might have been THE thing that caused all of eastern Ukraine to fall and lots of smashed Ukrainian units in the process.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the discussion about what might come after Putin.  First, a good OpEd that says what I've been saying for weeks now, but much better and all in one place

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/598108-why-vladimir-putin-will-fall?rl=1

OK, so once Putin is out of power... then what?

When the Allies defeated Nazi Germany they physically occupied it and had pretty much free reign to do as they pleased.  Forcing Germans to face up to their crimes was a huge part of what happened in the early days.  But it was also done in combination with the Marshall Plan.

Contrast this with WW1 when Germany wasn't fully defeated on the battlefield and wasn't occupied.  The Germans not only didn't get the benefit of a sort of Marshall Plan, they got stuck with a HUGE bill for the war and a forced peace deal that was arguably a "smash and grab" for the other colonial powers.  Even more galling was the "war guilt clause" that made Germans agree they were the only ones responsible for the war.  Which was total BS and they knew it, but what choice did they have at the time?  So that one in particular came back to bite the Allies (not US, because they opted out) years later.

As some of you have pointed out, nobody is going to militarily occupy Russia if Putin falls.  So you might be thinking this means we are in another Weimar situation in the making where we MIGHT get a slightly better form of Russia just as long as it takes to get a worse one ready to cause trouble.  I disagree that is inevitable.

Russia needs the rest of the world to turn the economic faucet back on for it to do anything more than struggle to survive day to day.  The smart thing to do is agree to lift sanctions and put in financial investments only if Russia agrees to certain political reforms.  In particular education, media, and democracy safeguards.  Russia could say no, of course, but there will be a lot of pressure to say yes.

You might think there's no precedent for this sort of approach.  Wrong.  This is how the former Soviet dominated Communist countries became a part of the EU and NATO.  Each of those organizations laid out certain requirements before being admitted.  Only a couple had any prior experience with any form of government even resembling democracy, and even then not for 50 some odd years.  Those countries voluntarily and fundamentally changed their ways because the incentives were so big.  Even when you look a the less successful members (Bulgaria in particular) they still are way better now than they ever were.

This could happen with Russia.  Might.  Possibly.  I don't have a crystal ball to know if it will happen, I just know that it is reasonable enough to hope that it can.  Maybe not right away, but not very far down the road.

Steve

[Rokossovski]

When combined with the reports of progress in cease-fire talks, the Russian moves to menace Odessa from the sea and the reports of multiple Ukrainian counter-offensives suggest the possibility that the timing of some of these actions may be driven by a desire for immediate leverage in the talks rather than being the product of purely military calculations.

In particular, the timing of Ukrainian counter-offensives could be especially important in this struggle -- I hope that they are well-timed rather than being initiated prematurely as a result of political calculations.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Rokossovski said:

When combined with the reports of progress in cease-fire talks, the Russian moves to menace Odessa from the sea and the reports of multiple Ukrainian counter-offensives suggest the possibility that the timing of some of these actions may be driven by a desire for immediate leverage in the talks rather than being the product of purely military calculations.

In particular, the timing of Ukrainian counter-offensives could be especially important in this struggle -- I hope that they are well-timed rather than being initiated prematurely as a result of political calculations.

What do you all think would be the implications if Kherson was retaken?

[Battlefront.com]

The Russian naval activity off the coast of Odessa is most likely designed to keep Ukrainian defenders tied down instead of moving up to Mykolaiv or elsewhere.  I'm not the only one to think that there's unlikely any Russian Marines on those landing ships.  They're most likely fighting somewhere in the south, possibly the attack on Mariupol (there are Marines there for sure, though not necessary the ones that had been tasked to ships).

I think the Ukrainians aren't expecting to get anything out of the talks.  Russia still wants Ukraine to capitulate and be dismembered, Ukraine doesn't want to or need to.  I think the counter attacks we are seeing are simply being done on the assumption that the only way to end this war is to defeat the Russians on the battlefield.  I am sure this is exactly what Ukraine is planning on doing.

Shouldn't take more than a couple more days to sort this out.

Steve

[MikeyD]

From past experience, a typical Russian 'cease fire' means 'We keep shelling you while we bring up resupplies unhindered'.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

What do you all think would be the implications if Kherson was retaken?

Disaster for Russia.  It's hardly taken anything, which is bad enough, but to LOSE one of the few things that has been taken?  Yeah, not good.

I don't know what to make out of all the forces passing through Kherson, but I do have a guess.

Due to mounting losses and continued logistics problems, and possibly anticipating strong Ukrainian counter attacks, Russia has given up on advancing west of the Dnepr.  They could be pulling back to the eastern side, shortening up both their frontline as well as their logistics tail.  Also, but ceasing offensive activities they free up resources that would otherwise be expended (fuel, food, and ammo) so that they can go elsewhere.

I think the Russians might initially try to hold Kherson and put the Ukrainians in a position of having to either do bloody street fighting as the attacker or sitting on the outskirts in siege mode.  This may work very short term, but it is untenable.  They won't be able to hold it if Ukraine wants to take it back by force.

Steve

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Disaster for Russia.  It's hardly taken anything, which is bad enough, but to LOSE one of the few things that has been taken?  Yeah, not good.

I don't know what to make out of all the forces passing through Kherson, but I do have a guess.

Due to mounting losses and continued logistics problems, and possibly anticipating strong Ukrainian counter attacks, Russia has given up on advancing west of the Dnepr.  They could be pulling back to the eastern side, shortening up both their frontline as well as their logistics tail.  Also, but ceasing offensive activities they free up resources that would otherwise be expended (fuel, food, and ammo) so that they can go elsewhere.

I think the Russians might initially try to hold Kherson and put the Ukrainians in a position of having to either do bloody street fighting as the attacker or sitting on the outskirts in siege mode.  This may work very short term, but it is untenable.  They won't be able to hold it if Ukraine wants to take it back by force.

Steve

USAF FORTE Global Hawk certainly taking a long look:  

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, if anybody missed this link (I'm pretty sure I got it here) they should read it now.

[EDIT - billbindc posted it on the previous page.  I thought I had it opened in my browser for a while, guess not!]

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist?utm_source=twitter&s=r

One aspect touched on briefly is one I've been thinking about for the last day or two when I think "what comes after this".  Eastern Ukraine was filled with outdated and insufficient infrastructure left over from the Soviet days.  Well, Putin just blew all that stuff up.  Ukraine will have to rebuild, and when it does it is likely going to end up with better infrastructure than they started with.  This could boost Ukraine's overall economic capacity for decades to come. 

Yet another way that Putin has achieved the exact opposite of what he set out to do.

Steve

[sross112]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

What do you all think would be the implications if Kherson was retaken?

From looking at the maps of the area they don't need to take Kherson itself, just the bridge on the eastern side and they will have isolated any Russians north of the river and west of Kherson. With their low state of supply already it probably wouldn't take a day or two to reduce that pocket. It could go either way, but with low morale and supplies and getting hammered in a pocket I would think there would be a better chance of larger scale capitulation than of fierce house to house defense by the Russian troops. 

A Ukrainian counter attack in that direction explains the fast moving vehicles heading south and could be pretty indicative of the other Russian units trapped in the pocket. The video only showed soft support vehicles flying by so the REMF's are panicking. Probably a good sign of Ukrainian success.

We will have to wait and see, but should be fun to watch if they get them bottled up there.

[dan/california]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/15/ukraine-war-proves-russia-no-longer-a-superpower/

What he said...