How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, Russians abandoning these systems for the Ukrainian tractor brigade, makes zero sense.    

This is the important thing to focus on.  Regardless of what you two Capitalist Dogs think about who should be commanding them and how to rank them for targets, the point is that RUSSIA should value these assets and ensure they don't get zapped, not to mention abandoned.  And yet they are not.  We've seen quite a lot of bridging scattered on the roads of Ukraine so far, Russians obviously rank them far lower than you two do

Steve

[Probus]

19 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Yes, sorry. I better go back to lurking.

Best regards,
Thomm

Had me fooled too @Thomm

[Probus]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the important thing to focus on.  Regardless of what you two Capitalist Dogs think about who should be commanding them and how to rank them for targets, the point is that RUSSIA should value these assets and ensure they don't get zapped, not to mention abandoned.  And yet they are not.  We've seen quite a lot of bridging scattered on the roads of Ukraine so far, Russians obviously rank them far lower than you two do

Steve

+1 (I wish you had an upvote button Steve)

Edited March 14, 2022 by Probus

[Battlefront.com]

And rising to the top of Ukraine's Top 10 Traitors List...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-installed-mayor-in-captured-ukrainian-city-says-it-s-now-airing-russian-state-tv-which-is-heavily-censoring-news-of-the-war/ar-AAV1D9b?ocid=msedgntp

This just shows the cognitive problems pro-Russian people have.  Not only is this mayor now throwing her lot in with a bunch of war criminals, but she thinks it is a good career move!

Taking out the Russian propaganda broadcasting equipment is probably already on the local resistance fighter's ToDo List.  Should be a fairly easy one to deal with.

Steve

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And rising to the top of Ukraine's Top 10 Traitors List...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-installed-mayor-in-captured-ukrainian-city-says-it-s-now-airing-russian-state-tv-which-is-heavily-censoring-news-of-the-war/ar-AAV1D9b?ocid=msedgntp

This just shows the cognitive problems pro-Russian people have.  Not only is this mayor now throwing her lot in with a bunch of war criminals, but she thinks it is a good career move!

Taking out the Russian propaganda broadcasting equipment is probably already on the local resistance fighter's ToDo List.  Should be a fairly easy one to deal with.

Steve

I am sure, she will not grow old.

[sburke]

This is bound to get under Putin's skin.

Vladimir Putin's Daughter's House Raided by Activist Holding Ukraine Flag (msn.com)

[rocketman]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the important thing to focus on.  Regardless of what you two Capitalist Dogs think about who should be commanding them and how to rank them for targets, the point is that RUSSIA should value these assets and ensure they don't get zapped, not to mention abandoned.  And yet they are not.  We've seen quite a lot of bridging scattered on the roads of Ukraine so far, Russians obviously rank them far lower than you two do

Steve

I don’t get how there can be so much abandoned gear sitting around in pristine condition. Isn’t spiking the gun or damaging vital systems a thing in the modern era? It is almost as if the ruskies who abandon them leave them as a parting gift in protest of the war, before they try to blend into the general population

[BlackMoria]

It doesn't take much to get under Putin's skin these days but, yes, as irritants go, this is a good one...

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And rising to the top of Ukraine's Top 10 Traitors List...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-installed-mayor-in-captured-ukrainian-city-says-it-s-now-airing-russian-state-tv-which-is-heavily-censoring-news-of-the-war/ar-AAV1D9b?ocid=msedgntp

This just shows the cognitive problems pro-Russian people have.  Not only is this mayor now throwing her lot in with a bunch of war criminals, but she thinks it is a good career move!

Taking out the Russian propaganda broadcasting equipment is probably already on the local resistance fighter's ToDo List.  Should be a fairly easy one to deal with.

Steve

so what does this mean for Opposition Bloc?  I would expect that entire organization would now face arrest in Ukraine.

[rocketman]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

This is bound to get under Putin's skin.

Vladimir Putin's Daughter's House Raided by Activist Holding Ukraine Flag (msn.com)

Oligarch Oleg Deripaska had a luxury apartment in central London taken over by squatters who intend to turn it into shelter for Ukrainian refugees. I’m certain the police will turn a blind eye to it - more than willingly.

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I am sure, she will not grow old.

I was about to say the same.  How long til she gets whacked?  

[Phantom Captain]

20 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

That wasn’t a new thing invented in the 19th century. The term for those soldiers in earlier conflicts, such as our own Revolution, were “Dragoons.” Although they looked like Cavalry, even had sabers, they were Mounted Infantry who dismounted to fight as Infantry.

Colonel Wilder would be spinning is his grave to hear you say such a things!   He most specifically would disagree with you that his men were NOT Dragoons either.  The Lightning Brigade did NOT carry sabers, or pistols, or shotguns and would not engage on horseback as cavalry or dragoons would.

He specifically envisioned his unit as highly mobile mounted light infantry.

I think he would be awfully pleased to see how the Ukrainians are implementing his ideas and see that what they are doing is the modern equivalent of his brigade on a much larger scale.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[dan/california]

https://www.ft.com/content/52ea7aab-f8d1-46b6-9d66-18545c5ef9b9

 

Putin has had to ask the Chinese for help. Not clear what he asked for, or when he might get it. I don't have subscription to read the whole article.

 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

so what does this mean for Opposition Bloc?  I would expect that entire organization would now face arrest in Ukraine.

I'm wondering about that as well.  On the first day of the war one of the high profile national members fled the country and the party kicked him out.  Seems the party is trying to thread the needle between traitors and collaborators.  Er wait, is that really going to work?

Steve

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the important thing to focus on.  Regardless of what you two Capitalist Dogs think about who should be commanding them and how to rank them for targets, the point is that RUSSIA should value these assets and ensure they don't get zapped, not to mention abandoned.  And yet they are not.  We've seen quite a lot of bridging scattered on the roads of Ukraine so far, Russians obviously rank them far lower than you two do

Steve

So this is important, why are the Russians leaving high value assets in fields?  A few possibilities:

- Breakdown in logistical system - most likely cause given the wide spread reporting of fuel/supply shortages,  It would stand to reason that recovery assets are also no where to be found if the Russian logistical system is in trouble.

- The Russians think the CoGs are something else and logistics/mobility are not on their priority lists.  Or they are moving to another plan that does not include them.  I am at a loss for what that would look like beyond a total abandoning of offensive, or all operations for that matter. 

- They are being forced to as a result of UKR rear-area actions.  This means the backfield is not secure for the Russian LOCs, at least in these areas. 

- Completely broken C2.  Perhaps those assets just got lost or were left out of contact with higher.  Worse Russian C2 might not even know they have lost these assets in this case.  Morale plays a factor here as well.

Regardless, we have seen a few people ask "how do you know it is going bad for Russia?" "are we in an anti-Russian echo chamber".  Well maybe but none of those possibilities above are very good for the Russians at all, and all signs of things that should not be happening as widely as they are.  I would even be less concerned if we saw AVLBs blown up, that is bad but this is a dangerous business.  Simply abandoning them, in many cases without destroying them first, is a sign of a much deeper breakdown in the Russian system...and we are seeing it almost everywhere.  

And with every day, I am growing less and less convinced the Russians can recover to the point that they can wage effective offensive operations against an opponent who has had more and more time to prepare.

Edited March 14, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

Kadyrov is now claiming to be fighting in Ukraine, not just there for a visit.  This would be a wonderful time for the FSB to slip the SBU a note with some coordinates on it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-ally-kadyrov-says-in-ukraine-kyiv-2022-3

Seriously, can you imagine the problems Kadyrov's death would have for Russia?  Power struggles in Chechnya could happen and there's no way that's good for Putin any day of any week of any year.  Now would be especially bad timing.

Steve

[akd]

Rus/DPR T-72B (I think) fighting in Volnovakha:

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by akd

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Kadyrov is now claiming to be fighting in Ukraine, not just there for a visit.  This would be a wonderful time for the FSB to slip the SBU a note with some coordinates on it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-ally-kadyrov-says-in-ukraine-kyiv-2022-3

Seriously, can you imagine the problems Kadyrov's death would have for Russia?  Power struggles in Chechnya could happen and there's no way that's good for Putin any day of any week of any year.  Now would be especially bad timing.

Steve

It's why the chance of him actually fighting in Ukraine and not sitting in his bunker in Grozny is so low.

Several top ranking members of his gang were already killed here - so being here is just making SBU's Alpha really really hard.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Simply abandoning them, in many cases without destroying them first, is a sign of a much deeper breakdown in the Russian system...and we are seeing it almost everywhere.  

This, plus the next bit...

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And with every day, I am growing less and less convinced the Russians can recover to the point that they can wage effective offensive operations against an opponent who has had more and more time to prepare.

Equals the primary reason the remaining talking heads speaking as if there's a hope of Russia pulling things together should stay off the air until the war is over.  What we are seeing are not operational or tactical shortcomings playing out at a strategic level.  We're seeing strategic shortcomings playing out at ALL levels.  There's so many of them to point to, not just this one.  More importantly, all of the things we're seeing now are traditional Russian/Soviet weaknesses that supposedly Putin has spent the last 20 years fixing.  And yet they are still there almost as bad as ever.  So why on Earth should anybody think that they can fix this in a couple of days, weeks, or months?

Contrast this with the situation in Iraq 2003/2004 when the Coalition found itself too vulnerable to ambushes and, in particular, IEDs.  Were they able to adapt and adapt quickly?  Yes.  Why?  Because they had all the fundamentals to do it and do it quickly.  Russia just doesn't have that sort of capability up their sleeve.

Steve

[Commanderski]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Kadyrov is now claiming to be fighting in Ukraine, not just there for a visit.  This would be a wonderful time for the FSB to slip the SBU a note with some coordinates on it.

Probably a few sniper teams looking for him right now.

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

but I would focus on the trucks and bridges need to keep pushing "boom-boom" to those tubes

I saw a number 2 days ago that among all the AFV, personnel and aircraft losses Ukraine claimed destroying over 100 fuel tanker trucks and some huge number of just “trucks”. 
 

The impact of those losses, even if exaggerated, is far, far greater than just the word “trucks”. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Ultradave

[kraze]

59 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I read that even the Germans didn't inflict so much  damage on Kharkiv. This war will stay as a monument of stupidity of Slavic people killing each other for the sphere of influence of foreign powers. Ukraine is becoming Syria and Russia will be back to the 90s. And rest of Europe will sink in economic crisis when it was obvious its future lied in coming closer with the East . Well whoever planned all this, well done.

Oh here we go again. This being a "war of Slavic people" is russian BS propaganda.

Like try to look at all the russian POWs and calculate what percentage of those is Slavic. Spoiler: it won't be higher than the percentage of the Slavic minority in the mostly heavily asian-ethnicity Russia.

Same goes for the rest of russian propaganda points in your post.

Russia is extremely uncivilized and unreliable and also very dependent on European money, not the other way around. Gas and oil make for 60% of russian exports - and when Europe is done moving away from buying those in Russia - Russia will become Syria.

Edited March 14, 2022 by kraze

[Erwin]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.ft.com/content/52ea7aab-f8d1-46b6-9d66-18545c5ef9b9

 

Putin has had to ask the Chinese for help. Not clear what he asked for, or when he might get it. I don't have subscription to read the whole article.

 

"The US has told allies that China signalled its willingness to provide military assistance to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to officials familiar with American diplomatic cables on the exchange. ... The Financial Times reported on Sunday that Russia had made the request for assistance at some point after the start of the now three-week invasion. The Russian offer and Chinese response have sounded alarm bells in the White House. US officials believe China is trying to help Russia while its top officials publicly call for a diplomatic solution to the war."

“If China does choose to materially support Russia in this war, there will likely be consequences for China,” the defence official said. The official added: “We have seen China basically give tacit approval to what Russia is doing by refusing to join sanctions, by blaming the west and the United States for assistance that we’re giving Ukraine [and] by claiming they wanted to see a peaceful outcome but essentially doing nothing to achieve it.” Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser...  isaid he would warn the Chinese not to attempt to “bail out” Russia, including helping it survive the tough sanctions from the west. “We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC television on Sunday."

"...Chinese media and diplomats have offered support for Russia’s justification for the invasion and blamed the US and Nato for the conflict. Chinese media have also repeated unsubstantiated Russian claims that the US helped Ukraine build biological weapons labs. ... Last month, Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a joint statement in Beijing that described their increasingly close partnership as having “no limits”. 

[Homo_Ferricus]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Regarding yesterday news about artillery strike on 200-vehicles column in Melitopol area. Looks like this can be true. Today was claimed that ESTIMATED losses of enemy is about 50 vehicles.

Also here SIGINT interception of Russian soldier, which calls to own familiar in Russia and tells how their column was hit by artillery. He tells other column of his unit, which was deployed and started movement from Zelenchuk village (20 km west from Melitopol) was destroyed and only 3 man left. He tells HQ of 58th Army hurries them "go, go, go, move forward faster!", but there is lack of supply and there no any recon, so they suffered from UKR artillery - so they scatetred on small groups to hide in the steppe and fields. Their senior commanders abandoned them and they don't know what to do. They also tells, 205th motor-rifle brigade, where he served recently lost about half of personnel. There is unknown what data of this interception

  

 

Interesting part of the exchange:

Soldier: They're sh*tting on us everyday with grads and artillery

Friend: You're sh*tting on them, too? Aren't you?

Soldier: Yeah sure, with what (sarcastic)

Friend: WTF, don't you guys have ammo to shoot??

Soldier: For the machinguns, but thats pretty much it

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Contrast this with the situation in Iraq 2003/2004 when the Coalition found itself too vulnerable to ambushes and, in particular, IEDs.  Were they able to adapt and adapt quickly?  Yes.  Why?  Because they had all the fundamentals to do it and do it quickly.  Russia just doesn't have that sort of capability up their sleeve.

I went down to DC during this crisis and even the US took months to pivot onto this one tactical threat capability (e.g. Armored HUMVEEs, C-IED etc)...and this was one issue.  The stuff we are seeing in the Russian system are hitting military reform-levels to address and those take years, if not decades.