How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

So it takes 17 years to remove pathogens from a lab? 

Are you serious 

Don't bring my nationally in to this

Is this a personal attack? 

I noted several articles one from New York Times

Is New York times a fake news site? 

If you don't like an article don't read it, doesn't give you or anyone else the right to attack people on here

I'm simply posting comments from both sides so people can make there mind up

Stop it now or you are done here.  We've already had a detailed debunking of this crap once already.  You need to go somewhere else if you want to do half arsed defenses of Kremlin propaganda BS.  This is not the place for it.

What I am about to say applies to you as well as John Kettler.  Both of you have long established track records of derailing otherwise intelligent discussions with totally bogus conspiracy theories and unvarnished repeating of Kremlin talking points.  I've give you guys so much slack and second chances over the years I can not begin to count.  Not being able to distinguish between truth or fiction might be an explanation for your posts, but it isn't an adequate excuse for them. 

Let me be clear... if you can not keep your conspiracy theories and Kremlin propaganda out of your posts, you're off this Forum.  This applies to this thread at this time, it also applies to any threads now and into the future.  It takes a lot to wear down my patience with people displaying their eccentricities online, so I suppose congratulations is in order.

Steve

[John Kettler]

Res is too poor for me to ID them with confidence, but these look to be SPHs (a full battery) in firing position. The size of what I believe to be shadows suggests they're MSTA-Ss. Now the TB2 operators won't have to work so hard to make them go away.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Telegraph

 

@Telegraph

·

9h

 

 

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

Wasn't asking about ATGM unit level, type or subordination but what were they shooting at with the AT4C, if you knew?
 

This is nor shown on the video  Looks like they shot across the river

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

7 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yes, as usual, it was reported on. Again, slow down and stop with the rapid-fire topic responses.

LukeFF,

Where please?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Taranis]

4 hours ago, Hister said:

I see. Yeah, crazy stunts Russian side is doing, so lame all the way. So you don't think it could in any way be lunched by Ukrainian side? You discount the option it manfunctioned?

Well, the radars of all nato countries that it flew over spotted it but there was a problem because nato planes didn't scramble meaning it was either  not reported by said countries to nato higherups or it was and nato didn't reapond or something down that line.

What is AD decoy?

 

Thank you all for taking the time. 

 

4 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Here's my analysis:

Wikipedia lists the following details

Taking that speed and those timings, that's about 35km through Romanian airspace, 470km through Hungarian and 80km through Croatia, ending at Zagreb. The Tu-141 has a range of around 1000km, although that looks rounded off and is also going to depend on weather conditions etc.

Taking all that at face value, 1000km in a straight line doesn't put it anywhere inside Ukraine that Russia could have launched it. Vinnytsia is about as far into Ukraine. Since it is essentially a cruise-missile it doesn't have to travel in a straight line though, but obviously that gives it the furthest range. Transnistria might just about be a possibility if you definitely want it to be a Russian launch, but it looks far more likely that it was Ukrainian.

Indeed good analysis. 
About :
 

Quote

So you don't think it could in any way be lunched by Ukrainian side? You discount the option it manfunctioned?

I will never say never because history is sometimes surprising but if it was an Ukrainian launch, why was it directed against NATO and why UKR simply denied the launch. If it was made by them, why not simply say "it was a malfunction sorry" and the incident will be closed. It's not possible that it was a calculated UKR launch in view to forcing NATO to join them in the fight because they know, that this will not work. It is also strange (but not impossible) that the launch occured during the invasion to be a simple incident.
The thesis about Transnistria is ok. Why not a launch from old russian or captured ukrainian UAV then launched from Moldova ?
Just my 2 cents. (I'm not saying that I have THE TRUTH, just my opinion)

Cheers

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Never had the pleasure. We were still eating C-Rats when I got out. I think some MREs were JUST showing up when I left, but I never saw one. Some C-Rats weren't too bad if you could heat them up. The problem was that many times we were unable to heat them. There were some that there was just no hope for. Self carried Ramen, SPAM, and Frank's Red Hot were necessities on deployments. Probably still are, too!

Yup, agree with this. Beans and franks, and spaghetti with meatballs were always a valuable trading commodities, especially if someone got stuck with Beef slices with potatoes (they weren’t bad if heated) and ham and Mo%=@f*&#rs (ham and Lima beans to those who don’t speak the dialect). Unfortunately, we rarely had heat tabs, and almost never ate stationary. Tabasco sauce was a must.

when we came in to base after a week in the field in NATO Operation Teamwork in Northern Norway in 1976, we ate in a field mess. We had Reindeer ribs. I remember asking an Air Winger if he was going to eat the meat scraps that were left on his bones. When he said no, I ate them.

[Taranis]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the marks and particular units is coincidental.  Meaning, all units in the north had Vs and most were Airborne, therefore confused into thinking V was specifically for airborne. 

The primary purpose of these marks is to avoid friendly fire.  For that to be effective the trigger pullers need to know what symbols to avoid shooting at.  Too many symbols could cause confusion or uncertainty, which is exactly the opposite of their intended purpose.

The initial invasion force consisted of three primary groups... northern forces were to take Kiev, central forces Kharkiv and then move south to cut off DLPR line, southern forces spilling out to take Odessa to the west and act as a southern pincer to cut off the DLPR line.  The friendly forces in the DLPR region were apparently organizationally assigned to the central group, which makes sense.

As far as I can tell the initial marks represent:

V = forces coming out of Belarus

Z = forces coming out of Russia (including DLPR frontlines)

/ = forces coming out of Crimea (these were hastily painted most likely to preserve prewar OPSEC)

O = unknown, but they seem to be coming out of Belarus as well (of all markings these are the lest frequently seen)

Having different symbols for the different main efforts makes sense, though, as they all started out as distinctly separate forces with distinctly different missions. 

Recently there have been some V and Z marks seen in the south where normally only / marks are seen.  These units appear to be VDV units.  My thinking is they were either originally tasked with the other groups but were hurridly retasked to the south once it was clear that area had the most hope of a rapid breakthrough with possible strategic significance.

Steve

Totally agree with you about the coincidence and the following mixed up formations.
I was initially focused on VDV because nearly each time I saw a V was on BMDs and one of the first statement said it was Naval Infantry (thing I considered being an unvolunteer or translation error). But since Chechen, it was evidence that it was not VDV only. Thank you for your detailled marking update.

[Haiduk]

Next comamnd vehicle hit by Byraktar. This is probably third strike at such target, issued for two days. Looks like we are trying to disrupt enemy control over troops. There is knowingly yesterday the commander of Russian brigade was wounded and Kadyrov's fighters issued a vide with his evacuation. Probably this was after TB2 strike too.

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Ultradave]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Yup, agree with this. Beans and franks, and spaghetti with meatballs were always a valuable trading commodities, especially if someone got stuck with Beef slices with potatoes (they weren’t bad if heated) and ham and Mo%=@f*&#rs (ham and Lima beans to those who don’t speak the dialect). Unfortunately, we rarely had heat tabs, and almost never ate stationary. Tabasco sauce was a must.

when we came in to base after a week in the field in NATO Operation Teamwork in Northern Norway in 1976, we ate in a field mess. We had Reindeer ribs. I remember asking an Air Winger if he was going to eat the meat scraps that were left on his bones. When he said no, I ate them.

Fruit was the only good thing in C's Nobody seemed to like apricots and I did so I'd gladly trade them a can of chocolate flavored sawdust (cake) for their apricots. Sweet sugar syrup to keep you going. Cold canned ham and eggs had to be the worst.

After I had been there 2 years we got a new DIVARTY CO. He told the 3 battalion mess teams that EVERYONE gets 1 hot meal a day in the field, minimum, or they could be transferred to the battalion ammo trains. Got their attention. Things were much better after that and the field kitchens managed to find us and feed us.

Dave

[John Kettler]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Yup, agree with this. Beans and franks, and spaghetti with meatballs were always a valuable trading commodities, especially if someone got stuck with Beef slices with potatoes (they weren’t bad if heated) and ham and Mo%=@f*&#rs (ham and Lima beans to those who don’t speak the dialect). Unfortunately, we rarely had heat tabs, and almost never ate stationary. Tabasco sauce was a must.

when we came in to base after a week in the field in NATO Operation Teamwork in Northern Norway in 1976, we ate in a field mess. We had Reindeer ribs. I remember asking an Air Winger if he was going to eat the meat scraps that were left on his bones. When he said no, I ate them.

Vet 0369,

Great story, but whatever you do, don't tell little children you ate reindeer!

In other news, the dreaded Ukrainian farmers have broadened their quarry, or so the meme would have us believe! Anyone know where to get a tractor beam?! Meanwhile, don't all those shades of blue look lovely together in the meme?



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

This video has been posted a few times, but I thought it would be a good one to show why Russian sources of information should not be trusted at face value.  Even for small stuff like this:

This isn't around Kiev, I'm sure of it.  Here's what I think we're seeing here...

Russians decided they needed some footage of hitting targets in Kiev with smart munitions, but the forces in and around Kiev are too busy dying or trying not to die for this sort of nonsense.  So they sent their camera guy to a quiet sector on the DLPR line, put a big V on the turret, and went from there.  This is consistent with an obviously static encampment as well as the overall look of the terrain, snow, and other factors.  It is also consistent with the crew being laid back and unconcerned about counter battery fire.  Think any crew up north of Kiev is laid back like these guys?

The big giveaway is the uniforms.  This mixed bag of Russian military camo, civilian camo, and civilian clothing is standard for DLPR forces, not a regular Russian armed forces unit.  Since DLPR forces aren't anywhere near Kiev, then this isn't what they claim it to be.

Russian propaganda is usually half assed, so getting the marking (V) correct is the half they got right, the disheveled crew they got wrong.

I also think I recognize this particular "reporter", though I don't remember the context of his "reporting".  It would be interesting if anybody can confirm this reporter is in the DLPR area.

Here's another Russian released video.  It's of a drone strike:

While I don't doubt that Russia has killed quite a few Ukrainians with the aid of drones, I'm not exactly sure that is what we're seeing here.  The jump cut from the soldiers (TD by the looks of it) and the explosion is a Red Flag right there.  If you look at the before and after feeds that it does appear they struck the same cluster of three civilian structures.  Though there's a few things that could raise some questions.  Even assuming they didn't cut two videos together from two different strikes, there's the problem of the missing pickup truck in the video showing the explosion.  It also seems the drone has changed positions pretty significantly.  Therefore, at a minimum it looks like the strike came significantly later than the time when the soldiers were out and about.  Which begs the question... were they even still in the building when it was hit?

Whatever the case here is, it's an example of why Russian sources of information have to be carefully examined.  They have decades of experience manipulating visual imagery to tell the story they want to tell.

Steve

[BFCElvis]

36 minutes ago, Probus said:

Great find!  Battlefront/Elvis confirms it.

Looks like Steve scooped me by about 12 hours.  

[Battlefront.com]

Now HERE is an example of propaganda done correctly

 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

Looks like Steve scooped me by about 12 hours.  

that's why I created a fictional crossroads for CMBS.  I don't want to be responsible for getting anyone killed. 

[John Kettler]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video has been posted a few times, but I thought it would be a good one to show why Russian sources of information should not be trusted at face value.  Even for small stuff like this:

This isn't around Kiev, I'm sure of it.  Here's what I think we're seeing here...

Russians decided they needed some footage of hitting targets in Kiev with smart munitions, but the forces in and around Kiev are too busy dying or trying not to die for this sort of nonsense.  So they sent their camera guy to a quiet sector on the DLPR line, put a big V on the turret, and went from there.  This is consistent with an obviously static encampment as well as the overall look of the terrain, snow, and other factors.  It is also consistent with the crew being laid back and unconcerned about counter battery fire.  Think any crew up north of Kiev is laid back like these guys?

Russian propaganda is usually half assed, so getting the marking (V) correct is the half they got right, the disheveled crew they got wrong.

I also think I recognize this particular "reporter", though I don't remember the context of his "reporting".  It would be interesting if anybody can confirm this reporter is in the DLPR area.

Here's another Russian released video.  It's of a drone strike:

While I don't doubt that Russia has killed quite a few Ukrainians with the aid of drones, I'm not exactly sure that is what we're seeing here.  The jump cut from the soldiers (TD by the looks of it) and the explosion is a Red Flag right there.  If you look at the before and after feeds that it does appear they struck the same cluster of three civilian structures.  Though there's a few things that could raise some questions.  Even assuming they didn't cut two videos together from two different strikes, there's the problem of the missing pickup truck in the video showing the explosion.  It also seems the drone has changed positions pretty significantly.  Therefore, at a minimum it looks like the strike came significantly later than the time when the soldiers were out and about.  Which begs the question... were they even still in the building when it was hit?

Whatever the case here is, it's an example of why Russian sources of information have to be carefully examined.  They have decades of experience manipulating visual imagery to tell the story they want to tell.

Steve

Steve,

Thanks for this. Much appreciate your dissection of the imagery.

On a separate note, it appears the Russians in Ukraine have hit the critical 30% loss figure, at least, for their BTGs. To be clear, not all of these are BTGs destroyed, but instead rendered (offensive) combat incapable. Figures below show 10% of the BTGs in Ukraine have been destroyed outright and nearly twice that effectively defanged. 

Illia Ponomarenko 

 

@IAPonomarenko

·

22h

 

Ukrainian intelligence: 18 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) have lost their combat capability in action, 13 more have been completely destroyed. In general, Russia was believed to have had a total of 120-125 BTGs deployed against Ukraine.

Regards,

John Kettler
 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

Even during Desert Shield we only ate one MRE per day, Breakfast and dinner were always hot chow from the mess trailer. We all understood what a steady diet of only MREs could do to one's digestive system. When the ground war kicked off our diet became MREs only for obvious reasons, but even then all of us had stocked on real food sent from home in care packages. Chef Boyardee saved my gut from too many MREs! lol

We never eat an entire rat at one time (never knew when we’d get our next one) so we stretched them out. If I remember, rats were designed to be very high calorie count, and MREs were too. I think I remember something like 2500 to 4500 per meal. I don’t think they were designed to be eaten all at once, even though many tended to be “Hobbits with Lembas.”

[akd]

Interesting interview in the New Yorker with Russian history scholar Stephen Kotkin:

Quote

We’ve been hearing voices both past and present saying that the reason for what has happened is, as George Kennan put it, the strategic blunder of the eastward expansion of nato. The great-power realist-school historian John Mearsheimer insists that a great deal of the blame for what we’re witnessing must go to the United States. I thought we’d begin with your analysis of that argument.

I have only the greatest respect for George Kennan. John Mearsheimer is a giant of a scholar. But I respectfully disagree. The problem with their argument is that it assumes that, had nato not expanded, Russia wouldn’t be the same or very likely close to what it is today. What we have today in Russia is not some kind of surprise. It’s not some kind of deviation from a historical pattern. Way before nato existed—in the nineteenth century—Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it’s not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in the nineteen-nineties. It’s not a response to the actions of the West. There are internal processes in Russia that account for where we are today.

 

I would even go further. I would say that nato expansion has put us in a better place to deal with this historical pattern in Russia that we’re seeing again today. Where would we be now if Poland or the Baltic states were not in nato? They would be in the same limbo, in the same world that Ukraine is in. In fact, Poland’s membership in natostiffened nato’s spine. Unlike some of the other nato countries, Poland has contested Russia many times over. In fact, you can argue that Russia broke its teeth twice on Poland: first in the nineteenth century, leading up to the twentieth century, and again at the end of the Soviet Union, with Solidarity. So George Kennan was an unbelievably important scholar and practitioner—the greatest Russia expert who ever lived—but I just don’t think blaming the West is the right analysis for where we are.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

In twit form if you get paywalled:

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1502451539591454723

 

[DesertFox]

Lets hope they can put it to good use

 

 

[Commanderski]

 I just read that a number of cities in Europe have announced they are changing the names of streets which base Russian embassies.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/russian-embassy-london-kensignton-zelensky-avenue-ukraine-lib-dems-b986647.html

 

[John Kettler]

It's great to see a Russian drone I'd not seen before, but am intrigued by the weapons carried by those who captured it, especially that bullpup assault rifle.

 

Ukraine Weapons Tracker

 

@UAWeapons

·

2h

 

#Ukraine: Ukrainian SOF captured a small ENICS Eeleron-3 recon drone from Russian Forces, and are claimed to be reusing it.

Here is the related video, which frankly reminds me of happy children at Christmas unwrapping their gifts. SAdly, relative to the stills, the video quality is awful. But I dig the camo pattern one the drone's topside.

Here's perhaps another sign the Russians have dug deep;ly into their stockpiles for the invasion. If what Illia Ponomarenko says is true, that's the demothballing worksheet taped inside the MTLB's hatch. Can anyone confirm or reject this claim?



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Interesting interview in the New Yorker with Russian history scholar Stephen Kotkin:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

In twit form if you get paywalled:

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1502451539591454723

 

So basically the greatest russian expert is completely clueless and if true - that explains why the West was literally blind for so many years.

Before NATO even accepted any single new member after USSR dissolution - Russia attacked Moldova in 1992, Azerbaijan in 1992, Georgia in 1993 and Ichkeriya in 1994.

That's FOUR wars russia started in just its first three years past USSR.

So, naturally, when future NATO members saw what Russia does to its formerly occupied territories - they rushed to join NATO - which is damn hard as it is. You have to work your ass to be accepted into NATO, it takes almost a decade for an average country.

So that "scholar" is either blind or stupid.

 

[John Kettler]

4 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

 I just read that a number of cities in Europe have announced they are changing the names of streets which base Russian embassies.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/russian-embassy-london-kensignton-zelensky-avenue-ukraine-lib-dems-b986647.html

 

And just like that, Albania became any even worse hardship post than it already was.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

So basically the greatest russian expert is completely clueless and if true - that explains why the West was literally blind for so many years.

Before NATO even accepted any single new member after USSR dissolution - Russia attacked Moldova in 1992, Azerbaijan in 1992, Georgia in 1993 and Ichkeriya in 1994.

That's FOUR wars russia started in just its first three years past USSR.

So, naturally, when future NATO members saw what Russia does to its formerly occupied territories - they rushed to join NATO - which is damn hard as it is. You have to work your ass to be accepted into NATO, it takes almost a decade for an average country.

So that "scholar" is either blind or stupid.

 

you need to read the interview dude. You appear to be responding to the question, not the answer.

Edited March 12, 2022 by akd

[OldSarge]

30 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Fruit was the only good thing in C's Nobody seemed to like apricots and I did so I'd gladly trade them a can of chocolate flavored sawdust (cake) for their apricots. Sweet sugar syrup to keep you going. Cold canned ham and eggs had to be the worst.

After I had been there 2 years we got a new DIVARTY CO. He told the 3 battalion mess teams that EVERYONE gets 1 hot meal a day in the field, minimum, or they could be transferred to the battalion ammo trains. Got their attention. Things were much better after that and the field kitchens managed to find us and feed us.

Dave

The beanie-weenies were good, and valuable,  ham & eggs were probably the worse of the bunch Fortunately, there was always a bunch of bartering going on as everyone figured out what they had and were willing to trade for. I always kept tabasco sauce in the rucksack, made everything better or at least palatable.

IMO, the best part of the C-rats was the ever versatile P38. I used to have a bunch of them, can't seem to find any of them now.

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

you need to read the interview dude

I meant Mearshmier & co position, just misworded the argument.

Kotkin is right of course

Edited March 12, 2022 by kraze