Sgt Joch Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, kraze said: I fail to see how seizing empty space will compensate most financial losses. I was referring to the WH announcement. UK threatened to seize 1.5 billion pound of London real estate, but UK nationals/companies apparently own 18 billion euros of real estate in Moscow alone, not hard to do the math. What Russia will likely do is freeze all those assets and then try to exchange them for dollars/euros frozen in the West. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Probus said: Its the leased aircraft fleet that gets seized that is worrying to me. How would they sustain it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeondTheGrave Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Russia can nationalize Apple property in Russia, but can't develop and manufacture even something similar to IPhones. Presumably they would also seize any domestic server infrastructure as well. Not sure how much Apple keeps in Russia or how much its worth, but it could be there is some proprietary data on there that they would get and copy. 34 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said: Expected, but a bit silly. Everyone knew that if US/EU seized Russian assets in the West, Russia would retaliate by seizing U.S./EU assets in Russia and based on publicly available data, Russia could compensate most of its financial losses that way. Russia nationalizing western property would be nice for them in the short term, but the kiss of death economically in the long run. Consider that Venezuela nationalized its oil infrastructure without compensating western companies. Those profits were directed out of oil in to social services. And then, surprise surprise, the price of oil tanked. Now there infrastructure is in bad need of repair and modernization and the capital simply doesn't exist to do it. And notice that despite a global oil crisis right now, nobody is talking about increasing Venezuela's production. Nationalizing international assets feels good economically in the short term, but it comes at the cost of destroying relationships with outside businesses for a generation or longer. After all, who would spend $1bil or more to build a factory just for Putin to take it during the next war? Nationalizing industry and services will further push Russia into a resource driven economy, and will again mean Oil is the most important single commodity they posses. Except for political, environmental, and technological reasons, Russia will never pump as much oil in the future as it is right now. Oil is a dying industry. If they nationalize, businesses will make short term 'one off' deals. "Well buy 1mil bbl of oil or x mil cm3 of natural gas." But nobody will lease aircraft or create a long term exchange for Lada cars, unless there is literally no other alternative. Edited March 11, 2022 by BeondTheGrave 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Isn't nationalizing not just a fancy word for stealing? I mean, it's pretty deep below our standards, isn't it? All may be fair in love and war, but still. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Isn't nationalizing not just a fancy word for stealing? I mean, it's pretty deep below our standards, isn't it? All may be fair in love and war, but still. Yes it is. It is the end of all engagement of privately owned enterprises. The go back to the USSR system of all property belongs to the people bull****. How that turned out we all know... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Isn't nationalizing not just a fancy word for stealing? I mean, it's pretty deep below our standards, isn't it? All may be fair in love and war, but still. It is and it is suicide for any FDI for atleast the next decade. This is something only failed states and dictators on the edge of collapse do. No legitimate business will take on the risks that come with even a slither of >0 probability of having their investments nationalized. Even if Russia were to compensate those companies, the internal disruptions and uncertainty would make Putinland an economical Best Korea. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 More good stuff from Kamil Galeev on sanctions and the Russian economy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501676859741904898.html 1. What would moral crusade oriented sanctions look like? Inflict economic damage, so that population revolts and overthrows the regime. That's an imbecile idea that never really worked and probably never will.... Western people typically misunderstand Russia. They buy cheap propaganda of its collectivism & conservatism". Both are BS.... They're not conservative at all, just look at abortion statistics. It's super individualistic, super pragmatic society which doesn't care about any abstract "values".... No form of successful collective action is really possible in a country where such actions have been historically extirpated. For this reason, aiming sanctions to boost ideological motivated collective action is insane. It's not gonna happen . 2. Goal-oriented sanctions look differently. Maximise systemic shock in order to paralyse technological chains. That will lead to a military defeat, which will entail the fall of regime.... 3. Russia will integrate with China at any cost. But this is a task that should've been done before the war. The war is a systemic shock itself. Sanctions and severing technological from the West make it even harder. Russia might not have time to complete this work before collapse.... Chinese are not gonna altruistically help, they'll rip Russians off, using their leverage to its fullest 4. Russian economic collapse will entail the socio economic collapse of Central Asia as a second order effect. These countries live off money transfers from Russia. 5. There's only one rule: tell you're not from IT. Swear you are humanities grad, they'll let you out of Russia. Don't confess you're a coder. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pintere Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Taranis said: 09:49Putin orders to facilitate the sending of “volunteer” fighters to Ukraine He was responding to a proposal from his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, who said that 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East were ready to come and fight with Russian-backed forces. Source : Le Monde Isn’t it a little weird that this number is the exact same as the number of volunteers for the Ukrainian foreign legion? Sounds more like a "well you might have that, but I have that too" propaganda ploy to me. Not that I doubt Syrians will enter the fight too, but matching the number of Ukrainian volunteers sounds like a bit too much of a coincidink. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeondTheGrave Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Isn't nationalizing not just a fancy word for stealing? I mean, it's pretty deep below our standards, isn't it? All may be fair in love and war, but still. I suspect you may be poking here, but its entirely possible to nationalize private industry without too much upset or turbulence. Most European countries have nationalized industries over the past hundred years without too much issue, they tend to be limited acquisitions which change management and policy without tearing up old contracts or destroying significant investments. I was just watching a Youtube vid the other day about when the US, that bastion of anticommunism and free market experimentation, nationalized a major chunk of its railway system in 1976 to stave off collapse. Conrail ran for about 10 years before once again privatizing. These things can be done well if done smartly. What Russia is doing is what economists often call 'dumb.' 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, pintere said: Isn’t it a little weird that this number is the exact same as the number of volunteers for the Ukrainian foreign legion? Sounds more like a "well you might have that, but I have that too" propaganda ploy to me. Not that I doubt Syrians will enter the fight too, but matching the number of Ukrainian volunteers sounds like a bit too much of a coincidink. I was thinking the same, the only reason I can think of that legitimises it is that if they were to fake a number, they would pick one thats higher than the ukrainian one 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Ukrainan troops reportedly recaptured five villages in Chernihiv oblast. For now there was two names are knowinly from social netwoks. Baklanova Murayivka on P67 road in 10 km SE from Chernihiv city limit and Viktorivka, 27 km S from Nizhyn town. UKR troops in Viktorivka. Destroyed BMP on second video Some Typhoon 4 x4 MRAP variation captured in Viktorivka. "O" marking presents. UKR troops near Viktorivka prepare DJI Phantom IV for surveilanse mission. This DJI drone was popular in 2015-2017. Now mostly DJI Mavic 2 and Autel EVO in use. This is not standard unit equipment, these drones are buying by volunteer funds for militaries requests. This small drones widely use on the level of recon platoons, mortar batteries, SOF etc. Edited March 11, 2022 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, pintere said: Isn’t it a little weird that this number is the exact same as the number of volunteers for the Ukrainian foreign legion? Sounds more like a "well you might have that, but I have that too" propaganda ploy to me. Not that I doubt Syrians will enter the fight too, but matching the number of Ukrainian volunteers sounds like a bit too much of a coincidink. Yes. Finally, most Russian actions are grotesque propaganda. Look at their "So Mighty" army... "Everything is going according to the plan" I think that this call for volunteers is once again a sign of weakness, of lack of manpower (at least "experienced") 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Ukrainian border guards say that Russian fighter jets took off from Dubrovytsa Belarus, and launched missiles from airspace of Ukraine over Horodychi and Tumeni villages towards village of Kopani in Belarus https://t.me/espresotb/19016 Interesting to see if this is actually true. Kopani is a fair way west of any ground forces: https://www.google.com/maps/search/kopani/@51.7636451,26.8009627,14z Someone got confused and bombed the wrong place (seems the most likely - the border there is erratic)? Ukraine units wandered across the border (seems unlikely). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said: What Russia will likely do is freeze all those assets and then try to exchange them for dollars/euros frozen in the West. It's not like western companies didn't lose all that already when they left. It's already de facto, just not de jure yet. So what russians will be left with is a bunch of empty buildings nobody will even be able to rent, what's with one dollar already selling for 1000 rubles right now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Mykolaiv oblast. Captured BTR-MDM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Additional reports of strikes on Belarussian border villages: https://t.me/hromadske_ua/17757 Також Командування Повітряних Сил ЗСУ повідомляє, що обстріляли населені пункти Бухличі та Верхній Теребежів у Білорусі Quote Ukrainian Air Forces command says Russian bombardment at the border of Rivne region and Belarus targeted Bukhlichi, Verkhniy Terebizhiv settlements 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 128th mountain-assault brigade destroyed BMP-3 with Javelin. Luhansk oblast. The photo is for 6th of March Edited March 11, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 BMD and 2S1. Location unknown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, TheVulture said: https://t.me/espresotb/19016 Interesting to see if this is actually true. Kopani is a fair way west of any ground forces: https://www.google.com/maps/search/kopani/@51.7636451,26.8009627,14z Someone got confused and bombed the wrong place (seems the most likely - the border there is erratic)? Ukraine units wandered across the border (seems unlikely). Or: It's a "false flag" exercise aimed at raising Belarusian ire against the Ukrainians, and encouraging them to actually get on board with the "Ukrainians are baby-eating Nazi expansionists" nonsense. Or: The/a mutiny of the Belarusian army is getting dangerously close to being an existential problem for Lick-arse-enko and the Russian airforce was tasked to "do sumfink". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 THEORETICALLY, and without counting on the Rasputitsa 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, akd said: 29th CAA commander possibly killed: Corroboration from the West, though not yet formally confirmed Edited March 11, 2022 by LongLeftFlank 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) @Haiduk @Battlefront.com @kraze @The_Capt So my impression is that: In the North UKR forces are in decent shape, pushing back locally and constantly fighting, but vulnerable to massed, concentrated assault (which RUS seems to be building for). They have the shortest supply lines, the political center of gravity and excellent terrain for large scale defense (large flood plains, cities, the river to break up the RUS front). This is the beating heart of Ukrainian national defense and will be the base for long-term resistance or counter-attack. In the Center East, UKR forces are holding on, but are not the center of gravity of the UKR defense - they're getting enough to hold but not push back. They MUST hold in order to evacuate the South East region forces shortly. If they collapse then the SE forces will also collapse by default, leading to mass-scramble by UKR units to escape the kettle. And that won't be pretty at all at all. In the South East UKR forces are very much on the back foot, falling back and have suffered heavy losses. They are still coherent, still have some form of regional command cohesion but have lost battalion-level initiative and are purely reactive, while still highly motivated and effective at company and below. They have the most vulnerable supply lines and are in real danger of being snipped off as a region. How's that reading? Edited March 11, 2022 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Rouble has stopped plummeting and has in fact been slowly strenghtening since March 7. Is this a sign that the santions are not working? https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1M 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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