How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Just now, dan/california said:

Driving along with the lights on in the immediate aftermath of a firefight would imply that it was isolated outpost that got 100% wiped. 

Forward outpost, if I understood the thread correctly. Yep, job well done.

[sburke]

Just now, DesertFox said:

I thought so 

I was gonna make a joke but it would have been in really poor taste.  

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

I’m in no way condoning Russian attacks on civilians or civilian targets but the way the Russians control information and the fact that many troops below the rank of officers are issued maps, it’s possible that grunts operating weapons like artillery are just given coordinates to fire at and have no idea of what’s on the receiving end.

It’s appears many are making judgments based on their western mindset where information is free, open and accurate.

In many places information is highly controlled and restricted.

Every Russian soldier knows that Putin dropped Gas into city centers in Syria and what happened to Grozny. The pilot who pressed release on the 1000kg bomb knew perfectly well what he was hitting. Just like the Pilot who got captured the other day had countless experience hitting hospitals and markets with double strikes in Syria and got a selfie with Assad for his heroic deeds.

Those advancing troops very much see where their Grad and Smerch cluster munition drops and what they did to the local residents. I have seen half a dozen videos of unarmed civilians fleeing in their cars to the west getting gunned down by Russian troops with no warning shots or engine disabling.

For anyone who thinks the average fighting Ivan is a dissident in disguise should join some Russian Telegram channels.

Besides that, surrendering has never been easier, I heard you get a lofty $ sum on top and running away at night shouldnt be too hard, I've only seen a singe Soviet era NVG from the Russians so far. If I was a conscript forced into a war against a country I had no quarrel with I'd be gone by the first night, those that stay and continue to operate are complicit.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Kraft

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Brave men, but then Ukraine is not short of those! 

Once, while my Reserve unit was deployed to Camp Lejune for it’s annual two week “Summer Camp,” we were in the Staff NCO club having a beer after a training day. A Navy Petty Officer in Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) came in, chugged a beer, ate the glass, and somersaulted out the door. We all attributed his behavior to brain damage from holding his breath while defusing explosives.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Vet 0369

[db_zero]

The subject of what the US/NATO will do if Russia uses gas has undoubtedly been discussed at high levels. 

What the response will be is anyones guess but IMO going full Rambo or even a no fly zone will be off the table. Leaders will have to sell the prospect of WW3 to the people not just those sitting behind a keyboard and that’s probably going to be a hard sell.

Like it or not gas has been used on numerous occasions. It was used against the Kurds in the 80’s. Used in the Iran/Iraq conflict quite often and recently in Syria and nothing besides protests were registered. 
 

Another cold hard fact is in just about any conflict no matter what the intentions, rules of engagement or motives, when the tally of bodies is counted up, it always civilians who suffer the most. War sucks for everyone but it really sucks for non-combatants who suffer the most.

[dan/california]

I call it the flywheel of barbarity for a reason...

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The subject of what the US/NATO will do if Russia uses gas has undoubtedly been discussed at high levels. 

What the response will be is anyones guess but IMO going full Rambo or even a no fly zone will be off the table. Leaders will have to sell the prospect of WW3 to the people not just those sitting behind a keyboard and that’s probably going to be a hard sell.

Like it or not gas has been used on numerous occasions. It was used against the Kurds in the 80’s. Used in the Iran/Iraq conflict quite often and recently in Syria and nothing besides protests were registered. 
 

Another cold hard fact is in just about any conflict no matter what the intentions, rules of engagement or motives, when the tally of bodies is counted up, it always civilians who suffer the most. War sucks for everyone but it really sucks for non-combatants who suffer the most.

 

[Splinty]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The subject of what the US/NATO will do if Russia uses gas has undoubtedly been discussed at high levels. 

What the response will be is anyones guess but IMO going full Rambo or even a no fly zone will be off the table. Leaders will have to sell the prospect of WW3 to the people not just those sitting behind a keyboard and that’s probably going to be a hard sell.

Like it or not gas has been used on numerous occasions. It was used against the Kurds in the 80’s. Used in the Iran/Iraq conflict quite often and recently in Syria and nothing besides protests were registered. 
 

Another cold hard fact is in just about any conflict no matter what the intentions, rules of engagement or motives, when the tally of bodies is counted up, it always civilians who suffer the most. War sucks for everyone but it really sucks for non-combatants who suffer the most.

On paper at least the US has a policy that any use of

WMDs to include biological or chemical allows for the use of nukes by the US.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Splinty

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, Commanderski said:

China seems to be backing both sides: "Beijing said Wednesday it will provide war-torn Ukraine with about $790,000 in humanitarian aid, with the first shipment already on its way, though China has yet to condemn Russia’s invasion of the country."

Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right:

1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson -  Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2  style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between.

2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances.

3.  For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev.

4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states).

5.  The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in  reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch).

6.  The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv.

7.  Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance. 

And in 2023, a  Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk.

Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war.

8.  In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money.  Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand.

9.  Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'.

10.  In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders.  Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus).

TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding.

My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.

Edited March 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

Who hasn't done this in game, mounted their ATGMs on top of apartment buildings.  Title says its Ukrainian AZOV batt. but no detail on where , how etc. It also doesn't indicate if the buildings are populated. Are the Ukrainian's using 'human shields"?  Anyway the only counter tactics I've used that worked well in game is to use artillery. So as this game models accurately I guess we will see more Russian arty strikes on apartment blocks.

PS: The US are officially saying no-way to the aircraft deal from Poland, they are poo pooing about escalation.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Geoff-Ludumpress
spelling error

[chuckdyke]

Observers only on top of apartment building. (Which can be done by high-tech wizardry).  Yes, I expect the Soviets to take out prominent apartment buildings. I don't think we have to teach the combatants here anything about urban warfare.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by chuckdyke

[akd]

1 hour ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

Who hasn't done this in game, mounted their ATGMs on top of apartment buildings.  Title says its Ukrainian AZOV batt. but no detail on where , how etc. It also doesn't indicate if the buildings are populated. Are the Ukrainian's using 'human shields"?  Anyway the only counter tactics I've used that worked well in game is to use artillery. So as this game models accurately I guess we will see more Russian arty strikes on apartment blocks.

PS: The US are officially saying no-way to the aircraft deal from Poland, they are poo pooing about escalation.

 

These apartment blocks are on the very eastern edge of the city (literally, there is nothing beyond them but farmland).  They are likely now the frontline for a city under siege.  Who turned these city apartments into a frontline in a war?

47.11923° N, 37.69247° E

Edited March 10, 2022 by akd

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Who turned city apartments into a frontline in war?

The people who started the coup? And / Or the political failure to ensure the implementation of the 'Minsk peace agreement"?

[db_zero]

12 minutes ago, Splinty said:

On paper at least the US has a policy that any use of

WMDs to include biological or chemical allows for the use of nukes by the US.

Will the US/NATO cross the Rubicon? If it was a full fledged NATO country that’s one thing but it seems like there are limits regarding Ukraine.

[Splinty]

Just now, db_zero said:

Will the US/NATO cross the Rubicon? If it was a full fledged NATO country that’s one thing but it seems like there are limits regarding Ukraine.

Good point. But I think crossing the WMD line might be that Rubicon. I don't necessarily mean NATO using nukes, but I think that might be the line for direct kinetic involvement.

 

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

6 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Observers only on top of apartment building

That's NOT an observer, its an ATGM ( hard to say which type) with a least one spare round. You don't have spare rounds ready to roll unless your prepared to engage armour.

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

That's NOT an observer, its an ATGM ( hard to say which type) with a least one spare round. You don't have spare rounds ready to roll unless your prepared to engage armour.

Why is Russian armor attacking the “Russian” city of Mariupol and killing hundreds of civilians? Thank god there are ATGMs there to protect them.

Edited March 10, 2022 by akd

[Kraft]

6 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The people who started the coup? And / Or the political failure to ensure the implementation of the 'Minsk peace agreement"?

So many Ex-military turned students in that coup, kind of strange. I wonder why they left their tanks in base.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

That's NOT an observer, its an ATGM ( hard to say which type) with a least one spare round. You don't have spare rounds ready to roll unless your prepared to engage armour.

I only refer to what I do in the game. I am not telling the Ukraine army what to do. 

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Why is Russian armor attacking the “Russian” city of Mariupol and killing hundreds of civilians?

Making cities into extermination camps. Separate civilians from the armed services and in time they will blame their army to continue the battle. They want to stop the successful raid and ambush tactics of the Ukrainian army. In that light I see the Russian offer to put the civilians on transport to Russia as refugees. 5 Star concentration camp in Russia or an extermination camp in the Ukraine.

Edited March 10, 2022 by chuckdyke

[akd]

5,000-6,000 Russians KIA and no more Ladas. Silver linings.

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The people who started the coup? And / Or the political failure to ensure the implementation of the 'Minsk peace agreement"?

another troll?

[Battlefront.com]

I'm a huge supporter of holding those accountable for warcrimes to account for themselves in a court.  I've had a thing about this especially since watching the Balkans tragedy.  I also have a pretty low tolerance for ignorance being an excuse.  However, it is still important to judge the accused in context...

1 hour ago, sburke said:

those guys shelling Mariupol and dropping bombs on Kharkov know they are hitting civilian areas.

Not necessarily and even if they did they don't necessarily know it is "wrong".  A couple of scenarios:

1.  You are Private Pavel, you are 18 years old, you got conscripted, you have no idea what is going on in your life not to mention in this war.  You are assigned to an artillery battery.  Your SGT comes over and yells at everybody to get cracking because there are some Nazis that need killing.  And since you've spent 8 out of your 18 years knowing that Nazis are all over Ukraine, this seems sensible.  What are you shooting at?  You aren't told.  Where are your rounds falling?  You haven't the slightest idea.  And even if you did, you don't think it would be civilians because why would your superiors order you to do that?  No, must be suppressing an enemy position just like you overheard the LT telling the SGT.  So good soldier that you are, bombs away!

2.  You know damned well that your shells are going into a residential neighborhood don't find it plausible that all the civilians are out of there, though you heard the LT say that was the case.  You're not happy about the thought of killing the innocent, so you stop your mind from going down that road.  LT says target is clear of civilians, so that's all you need to know.  You're a good soldier, bombs away!

4.  You're smart enough to know that your rounds are highly likely to kill civilians.  But the LT said there's some enemy Nazis to kill, so there's that.  You search your mind and don't recall anybody ever telling you in artillery training or in school that shelling civilians is a warcrime.  In fact, you've never even heard of the concept of warcrime.  So if a few civilians get killed you suppose that is just the way the world works.  After all, the Ukrainian Nazis are trained by NATO and you've been told that NATO kills people indiscriminately all the time, so being a good soldier, bombs away!

5.  You were in the command tent when you heard the LT say to the SGT that you're going to shoot into a dense housing development to give those Nazis some payback for all the people they killed in Donbas over the last 8 years.  Hey, payback sounds great to an 18 year old who knows absolutely nothing about the world, so bombs away!

So on and so forth.

My point here is that Russia is a totalitarian state where brutality is baked into a certain, base level component of Russian culture.  Putin's Russia encourages this by treating its own people with brutality.  Those who are raised in this environment face tough odds of breaking out of it.  Sadly, it only takes a relatively small % of the population to keep the cycle of violence active and perpetual.  Look to the Balkans for another example from our lifetimes.

Because of this the default Russian culture of war is not the same as it is in the West.  Our root culture has fairly recently, and decidedly, shifted towards protecting innocent people from harm.  And each decade that passes the West gets closer to making it a reality.  Just because the West continually shows PLENTIFUL examples of not living up to its own moral standards, it at least has a fairly high standard on paper and does make an effort to live up to them.  Russia is at least 50 years behind where the West is now.

Case in point... all US service personnel get training about what is and isn't legal behavior according to US and international legal standards.  Do you think Putin mandates similar training at all or at least to the same degree as the US or other Western countries?  I really doubt it.  So how is Private Pavel, likely raised on nothing but a state education and state media, supposed to be on the same page as us in the West?

Let's get through this war and then see if we can figure out a way to hold Russia accountable for the first time in its entire existence.  That includes Private Pavel.  Then, perhaps, Russia can begin to change its ways so this won't happen again.

 

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

This could get even more ugly than it already is:

 

 

 

Yes, this is something that the White House has been warning about for more than a month.  It could be something done at home, such as a bio/chem weapon used in the Moscow subway and blamed on Ukraine.

I'm hoping that since there already is a wider war going on that Putin won't feel the need to do it.  Then again, the otherwise good protests at home might make Putin think a distraction is in order and try to rally people to his cause.  I really hope not because then NATO will have to do something and that isn't good for anybody.  Even Ukraine.

Steve

[danfrodo]

58 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

That's NOT an observer, its an ATGM ( hard to say which type) with a least one spare round. You don't have spare rounds ready to roll unless your prepared to engage armour.

HOLY F-K Geoff-L!  you are right!  This totally justifies an unprovoked armed invasion of conquest and the shelling of civilian populations centers!  Thanks for setting us all to rights on this!  Wow, your keen legal eye is just what's needed so folks can see thru to the real culprit here!

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is something that the White House has been warning about for more than a month.  It could be something done at home, such as a bio/chem weapon used in the Moscow subway and blamed on Ukraine.

I'm hoping that since there already is a wider war going on that Putin won't feel the need to do it.  Then again, the otherwise good protests at home might make Putin think a distraction is in order and try to rally people to his cause.  I really hope not because then NATO will have to do something and that isn't good for anybody.  Even Ukraine.

Steve

I'm not a believer in the "Putin's crazy, he'll start throwing nukes" thesis but I do think you can expect at minimum everything he's done in Syria to be tried out in Ukraine. Claiming a bio/chem/nuke atrocity by Ukraine is not escalatory in any real sense and I think he thinks that the pressure it would create in NATO might fracture some of the unity he's facing. He knows he's on the hook on this one so while he's not suicidal for himself or Russia, the likeliest outcome is that he finds something that can justify this debacle even if only for domestic consumption.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The people who started the coup? And / Or the political failure to ensure the implementation of the 'Minsk peace agreement"?

We've heard all of Putin's talking points over the last 8 years, soundly kicking them to the curb with something called facts, and have no tolerance for them any more.  Especially while watching Russia conduct a naked war of aggression that includes blatant warcrimes against, supposedly, his own people.

We are not interested in Kremlin trolls and disinformation propagandists.  We are interested in talking about the way the world really is. 

You've had your one and only warning.  Permanent ban for your next violation, so think carefully before you post.

Steve