How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Another Stugna-P / Skif kill:

 

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians "denazify" chikens

The real nazis called it "living off the land" 1941. This is the same **** happening all over again. Under martial law looters are to be shot.

Edited March 9, 2022 by DesertFox

[sburke]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com, you do some real research, as I did. It was trivial to find multiple proofs the labs were DOD funded (DARPA) and were numerous. Particularly of note was that material previously readily available regarding these labs was removed from the US Embassy in Kviv's website a day after the story broke. Even a quick look at the kind of work DARPA admitted to of possible BW relevance involved the use of insects to deliver permanently gene altering viruses to plants and animals alike. If Steve's cool with it, I'll be happy to post the links I sent him on the labs, their funding, work being done, protests ref the labs and statements decrying them from Ukraine, Russia and other countries. A telltale that something real and tangible is involved is that a slew of previously available online sources have either disappeared or been dead ended. Checked this personally.  Am quite prepared to believe the Russians are using the discovery of these labs and their activities to support their cause, but from what I've seen, they have every reason for justifiable concern, especially since some of the labs are very close to the Russian border. You don't need disinformation when the truth is so alarming it isn't needed. The Ukrainians have documented hundreds of deaths near the labs (since they were built and made operational), from a range, might I add, of known BW agents, such as anthrax. 

Regards,

John Kettler

oh I'm sorry.  let me read your post again....hmm nope I don't see a SINGLE source much less a reputable source.  Swing and a miss!

Are you spending time on infowars or some other Qanon site?  Don't.  It is bad for your mental health.

A debunked conspiracy theory about US bio-weapons laboratories in Ukraine was seized on by Russian and Chinese media outlets (msn.com)

Edited March 9, 2022 by sburke

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russians "denazify" chikens

 

Gathering their courage for the Great Poultryotic War

Edited March 9, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Lethaface]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The real nazis called it "living off the land" 1941. This is the same **** happening all over again. Under martial law looters are to be shot.

Shooting someone over taking a chicken is a rather harsh imo; shoot them because they're enemy soldiers which haven't surrendered. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK Russia's GDP was $1483.50 Billion last year, so 1%.

Yup, missed a decimal place!  Of course Russia's GDP isn't going to be anywhere near that this year or next.

Steve

[billbindc]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, missed a decimal place!  Of course it isn't going to be anywhere near that this year or next.

Steve

An economist of my acquaintance described it as the economic equivalent of going from Texas to Tennessee in under six months. When all is said and done, the costs may be much closer to your percentages than seemed possible two weeks ago.

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I wonder, has anyone here studied the steps of nuclear war with Russia. In case of someone pressing the button, does that mean that everyone goes full nuclear the exact moment launching all his arsenal at once to all cities targeted to overwhelm defenses ? Or will it be like, I start with a tactical nuke to terrorize you, you either back down or respond and then it escalates step by step to the bigger bombs and the end of us all. 

panzermartin,

Russian strategic doctrinal declaratory policy has been clear for years. It explicitly recognizes both preventive nuclear first use and the use of a nuclear weapon or weapons to correct a negative Correlation of Forces to restore the status quo, a positive Correlation of Forces. Nowhere in that doctrine was anything stated (that I know of) mandating the, er, corrective nuclear release employ a strategic weapon or weapons, either. All that matters is that enough of a blow be timely applied to put Russia back on the good side of the CoF equation. Also, the Soviets used to think nuclear winter was a western maskirovka intended to prevent them from using their best weapons should a war break out, but according to materials obtained by the National Security Archive  researchers via their own interviews conducted with former high level Soviet generals and officials, by 1984 the Russian scientists had done their own analyses and concluded nuclear winter wasn't fiction but fact. In turn, this drastically altered the entire perception of the feasibility of strategic nuclear warfare, since any significant use, especially in a counterforce role, would, by its very nature, create exactly the conditions necessary to generate nuclear winter.

Regards,

John Kettler

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Shooting someone over taking a chicken is a rather harsh imo; shoot them because they're enemy soldiers which haven't surrendered. 

Whatever takes place first. Shooting them for being the enemy or shooting them for looting. I´m fine with both results.

[DesertFox]

Not much left of that 2S19

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by DesertFox

[Haiduk]

Writing over the tweet in Ukrainian "Master of the storm" - localized name of "The hurt locker" movie

Several days ago Russian Su-34 was shot down over Chernihiv and fell in the village nearby with all payload, which didn't expolode. These sappers of State Emergency Service pull the fuse from the FAB-500 bomb

The water is for to preventing a sparkles or heating because of metal tension.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Yeah, let's also keep in mind that Gross Domestic Product isn't the same as the chequebook in the hands of those in power.
The war is very expensive. I believe the warchest is rather deep but there's many other cost than direct liquidity can solve and the question is how solvent that liquidity is given the sanctions (edited).

Yes, this is a good point I didn't remember to make.  If you make $100,000 a year, spending $1,000k isn't bad.  1%.  However, if your other expenses come out to be $200,000 a year... well...

EDIT -> remember that warchest is about 2/3rds frozen at the moment.  Pretty much only their gold reserves are in their hands.

Even before all this mess the Russian economy wasn't in great condition.  Not terrible, but not great.  The cumulative sanctions change that dramatically.  Even if all sanctions were lifted at the end of the year, it would take several years to repair the damage done.  We learned this from the COVID pandemic.  All of those economists that predicted a "v shaped" recovery once the pandemic waned were wrong about that.  Major disruptions can happen fast, repairs take much longer.

Steve

[womble]

5 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

enough of a blow be timely applied to put Russia back on the good side of the CoF equation.

When we're talking about Correlation of Force, civilian targets only count in terms of the "morale damage" they might inflict. Tac Nukes used to eliminate a buildup of forces change the CoF; the same nuke used to vapourise the centre of a city will either break the enemy's will to fight at a level above consideration of CoF, or worsen your situation, by stiffening the enemy's resolve to resist your barbarity.

And the Ukrainians aren't offering any concentrations of military assets worth nuking. So effectively, any nuke use is "strategic" (in that it's an attempt to persuade the leadership that the fight is no longer worth the risks of loss inherent in subsequent additional use of WMD, rather than an effort to cancel out a tactical or operational advantage).

[womble]

26 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Shooting someone over taking a chicken is a rather harsh imo; shoot them because they're enemy soldiers which haven't surrendered. 

Thing is, if they're looting, their own side should be arresting them (and shooting them if they resist too hard). Whether they're looters or not doesn't matter to a Ukrainian combatant; they're legit targets either way.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Another thing about conscripts. The next draft is coming up soon. Could this have been a factor in the decision about timing?

Yes, that definitely was part of the calculation.  Or I should say as definite as it can be without Vlad himself confirming.

Going to war with a 1/3 of your manpower in basic training isn't viable.  Interestingly enough, the did announce the Spring 2022 callup early this year.  Just before the war started, in fact:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians "denazify" chikens

Man, they can't even do that right!  Must be Moscow boys who thought chicken came from a white and red bucket.

On the plus side, if they are spending their time beating chickens to death with a pole then they aren't doing other things.

Steve

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com, you do some real research, as I did. It was trivial to find multiple proofs the labs were DOD funded (DARPA) and were numerous. Particularly of note was that material previously readily available regarding these labs was removed from the US Embassy in Kviv's website a day after the story broke. Even a quick look at the kind of work DARPA admitted to of possible BW relevance involved the use of insects to deliver permanently gene altering viruses to plants and animals alike. If Steve's cool with it, I'll be happy to post the links I sent him on the labs, their funding, work being done, protests ref the labs and statements decrying them from Ukraine, Russia and other countries. A telltale that something real and tangible is involved is that a slew of previously available online sources have either disappeared or been dead ended. Checked this personally.  Am quite prepared to believe the Russians are using the discovery of these labs and their activities to support their cause, but from what I've seen, they have every reason for justifiable concern, especially since some of the labs are very close to the Russian border. You don't need disinformation when the truth is so alarming it isn't needed. The Ukrainians have documented hundreds of deaths near the labs (since they were built and made operational), from a range, might I add, of known BW agents, such as anthrax. 

Regards,

John Kettler

This is what that misinformation and propaganda stemmed from. The details of this were twisted to fit their narrative and it didn't start last week. This "story" has been circulating for years, always pushed by Russian and Chinese interests.

This effort was sponsored by DTRA - the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. These are the people that work with other countries to PREVENT the spread of WMDs. PREVENT. They were the group that came up with the method of destruction of Syria's chemical weapons. The agreement here is to upgrade lab facilities in Ukraine to better secure them.

I'd suggest a thorough reading.

Dave

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/05-829-Ukraine-Weapons.pdf

 

[Lethaface]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is a good point I didn't remember to make.  It's a lot like pre and post tax income.  If you make $100,000 a year, spending $1,000k isn't bad.  1%.  However, if your other expenses come out to be $200,000 a year... well...

Even before all this mess the Russian economy wasn't in great condition.  Not terrible, but not great.  The cumulative sanctions change that dramatically.  Even if all sanctions were lifted at the end of the year, it would take several years to repair the damage done.  We learned this from the COVID pandemic.  All of those economists that predicted a "v shaped" recovery once the pandemic waned were wrong about that.  Major disruptions can happen fast, repairs take much longer.

Steve

How I understood things is that Russia build up a rather large reserve in foreign currency and gold. Quite a part of that seems to be frozen, while gold of course retains it's value. The income from gas / oil will probably also still give hard currency / trade value. But not all of that income will directly flow in the cash reserves of the Kremlin.

With their economy cut off from much of the rest of the world and the ruble in freefall, they can print extra rubles at little extra cost but the civilian population won't be happy their money turning worthless.

The sanctions also hampered their ability to utilize the hard cash reserves to stabilize the ruble. 

All in all I think they can finance the salaries of the current forces and fuel for quite a while without issues, (getting it to the front is another question though ),although the departure of Shell and other Oil companies might have it's effect on the refining capabilities (although I'd expect them to be able to 'fix' that). However, continuing the (commercial & military) production that was already in place will become much more costly over time, let alone restocking all those missiles and rebuilding lost tanks/helicopters and planes.

The main issue economically imo is that the civilian economy is rapidly disintegrating. Switching over to 'exclusively self sustained' and or build up economic relations with the remaining willing parties will require time and may take a generation to get back to similar level for the population, if it does. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Lethaface

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

Suggest that, rather than relying on the not at all what it seems Snopes.com,...

You don't need disinformation ... when you'll spread it for them.

Please just stop.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The main issue economically imo is that the civilian economy is rapidly disintegrating. Switching over to 'exclusively self sustained' and or build up economic relations with the remaining willing parties will require time and may take a generation to get back to similar level for the population, if it does. 

I expect made in China is going to be more prolific than it is even here.  China will gladly provide them with crap knock offs for oil/gas/nickel.  You know like sheetrock that turns out to be poisonous and the like.

[Battlefront.com]

For any of you wondering what concessions Ukraine is willing to accept for negotiations with Russia, here's a hint:

 

 

Of the demands that Russia has made so far, it seems only one of them has some support.  And that is staying out of NATO and it is only 30% in favor.  I suspect if that was the only condition for stopping the war then maybe that number would go up.

Steve

[db_zero]

The damage to the "Russian Brand" is going to be enormous. Most people now associate Russia with Putin and if you ask most people about Putin they will associate Putin with whats going on in the Ukraine. That is going to take a very long time to erase and it may require Putin to be gone and a new leadership with new policies to erase the negative image.

Even if all sanctions were ended tomorrow, many western companies will be hesitant to go back into Russia so long as Putin is in power. There will be enormous public pressure put on any company that does business under a Putin regime and they will at the very least have to publicly explain why...

I would not want to be the CEO of a company who's picture is plastered all over the news and social media as doing business with a murderous regime.

[BeondTheGrave]

Wonder how much of this MIG Hubabaloo has arisen because Russia threatened to shoot down jets during the transfer, were one to occur. Would explain the rapid and inexplicable back peddle by both the US and Germany.

Poland of course is still hoping it can do an even swap of MiGs for F-16s, which to me seems like a hell of a good deal. 

[Fenris]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder if Russia is withholding notices of death or injury from families of soldiers.  Having ~10,000+ casualties in a couple weeks is enough to start to get folks talking.  The conscript lie from Putin shows he's scared of public opinion, of these conscripted kids getting killed and the families spreading the word.  

I saw this the other day. (If it's real) Is another clever tactic from UKR to spread the word inside Russia.

 

 

[db_zero]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

I expect made in China is going to be more prolific than it is even here.  China will gladly provide them with crap knock offs for oil/gas/nickel.  You know like sheetrock that turns out to be poisonous and the like.

There is speculation but nothing solid about China acquiring positions in distressed Russian companies. Make sense for China if they can gain an interest in natural resources that Russia has in abundance for its voracious appetite.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

All in all I think they can finance the salaries of the current forces and fuel for quite a while without issues, (getting it to the front is another question though ),although the departure of Shell and other Oil companies might have it's effect on the refining capabilities (although I'd expect them to be able to 'fix' that). However, continuing the (commercial & military) production that was already in place will become much more costly over time, let alone restocking all those missiles and rebuilding lost tanks/helicopters and planes.

Oh, for sure it can afford to keep the war going, but it is going to have to rob money away from propping up the failing economy.  And WHEN they go into austerity mode that matters.  They'll have to cut social services even more than they've been doing over the past few years, which is bad considering they never got spending to where it needed to be anyway.

13 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The main issue economically imo is that the civilian economy is rapidly disintegrating.

Yes, and the economy had serious problems before the crisis.  Lots of them long term in nature, like not properly funding their health care system.  People are going to notice a decline in living standards very quickly.  Russian troops can't steal enough TVs and kill enough chickens to make up for it.

Steve