How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Erwin]

Just now, Sequoia said:

Nope, Ireland is not part of NATO

Okay...  We have identified Putin's next invasion target!

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Suchy said:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The government of the Republic of Poland, following consultations with the President and the Government of the Republic of Poland, are ready to move all their MIG-29 aircraft to the base in Rammstein immediately and free of charge and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America". - the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just stated in a communiqué. This could mean that the planes will be handed over by NATO to Ukraine.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Exellent. Biden says US gives 12 billion USD for military aid of Ukraine. We neeed AD systems. At least NASAM

[Sgt Joch]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think we in the West do need to take a long hard look at how we basically went past "letting it happen" to "enabling because we like cheap gas and were to busy with our own crap".  I am Canadian and frankly the lines we fed ourselves for over 30 years of a utopian liberal humanistic new world order, and kept smoking right up until Feb 24th meant we lost sight of just how nasty the world was really getting and failed to do anything about it.

well nothing has really changed, there have been wars going on each and every year since 1945 which resulted in millions of deaths. 

since 2001, U.S. Drone and air strikes may have killed as many as 48,000 civilians:

US airstrikes killed at least 22,000 civilians since 9/11, analysis finds | Global development | The Guardian

Just in 2022 you have wars ongoing in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Ethiopia, Suadan, South Sudan, Congo, etc..

There are 82 million refugees or internally displaced persons worldwide.

There is nothing special about this war in terms of human suffering that we have not seen before.

The only difference now is that this war is getting massive media attention.

[Erwin]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Excellent!

Hmmm... Sounds like Poland could have sent them direct to Ukraine.  If NATO is in any way involved there starts WW3.  A cunning ploy to appear helpful but with the confidence that those planes will never see the current conflict.  We'll see...

[DesertFox]

Chinese TV is in, on the "other" side...

 

 

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, sburke said:

agree.  I think Ukraine looks at the last 8 years and figures - no more.  They are smelling blood.  They don't have to defeat the entire 180,000 men.  They just have to break their will and I think they are doing a damn good job of it.  There will come a point where fragging may become a Russian term if their officers aren't paying attention.

Probably won’t become a “term,” but I worked with a Soviet Immigrant in the 1990s who was a T-34 driver. He told me that they had a sadistic tank commander, who would kick him in the head to indicate a change of direction instead of tapping. One night while the commander had gotten drunk and passed out in a hut, they backed the tank up against the hut and filled it with carbon monoxide. The crew later pulled the tank away and reported the commander had died in his sleep.

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, akd said:

Two T-80BVs there also. I think we’ve seen all these particular tanks in previous videos?

I think so.  It looks like a female journalist and drone operator were out there to get a "story".

Steve

[chris talpas]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So much bigger than equipment.  For too long we have sold Canadians on "better kit = better military" we are past that.  We need to look at military reforms that cut across the entire institution, hell our mobilization model is based on WW2.  2% GDP is no good if it means we just "buy more wrong".

Don't want to distract from the main Ukraine thread, but I would love to see a meaningful discussion amongst the Canadian members, and other interested allies in another thread (open to suggestions as to most appropriate sub-forum) on what would be the most effective reforms/rebuilding for the Canadian armed forces?  How steps should Canada take to make our forces more effective in light of the reality of the current world that doesn't appear to believe in the post-national ideal?

It would be interesting to hear what changes could be made to procurement policies: for example, given the realization that we are seriously under-prepared for the present situation, what changes can be made such that purchases of foreign off the shelf kit be made easier?

How do you divide the pie between the Army, Airforce, and Navy?

Then you can get into relative merit of kit.

 

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Hmmm... Sounds like Poland could have sent them direct to Ukraine.  If NATO is in any way involved there starts WW3.  A cunning ploy to appear helpful but with the confidence that those planes will never see the current conflict.  We'll see...

Some more infos on this in this tweet:

 

 

[Suchy]

@Erwin

We, as Poland, could not hand over these aircraft directly, as we are already a frontline state. This can only be done by NATO as a single military bloc. Ideally, the greatest superpower, the USA, would do this on behalf of NATO. And it will not be the beginning of the Third World War, because we are now handing over weapons as effective as the MANPAD Piorun and the Third War has not broken out.

[Haiduk]

One more of burned T-72B3. Mykolaiv oblast. The crew is dead, but I will not post graphic photo

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Suchy said:

@Erwin

We, as Poland, could not hand over these aircraft directly, as we are already a frontline state. This can only be done by NATO as a single military bloc. Ideally, the greatest superpower, the USA, would do this on behalf of NATO. And it will not be the beginning of the Third World War, because we are now handing over weapons as effective as the MANPAD Piorun and the Third War has not broken out.

Thanks for that Suchy, it's what I was thinking.  By handing over the planes to NATO there is collective responsibility, not just Poland.  Good for everyone.  If Putin wants to start WW3 over weapons transfers, it's not like he needs to wait for some specific legalistic breach no the part of the west. 

[sburke]

25 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Nope, Ireland is not part of NATO

whew!  that guy could have started WW3!  

[Bulletpoint]

Ok, time for a stupid question:

Why do we need to increase NATO budgets?

Even now, NATO is vastly more powerful (and funded) than the Russian Army, and given their miserable performance so far, it doesn't seem like Russia could even take on a single NATO country in a conventional war - let alone the whole bloc. And that's before we even bring nuclear deterrence into this.

[danfrodo]

So, another morning passes in Ukraine we still don't see the great offensives that have been predicted by so many folks?  Will it actually happen?  Do they have the resources?  every day that passes makes me more confident that Russia is unable to mount these offensives. 

Those narrow, single road advances have to be a death ride for the supply troops.  Like giant versions of "hell's highway" from operation market garden -- which is actually a pretty good analogy of what's happening now.

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

well nothing has really changed, there have been wars going on each and every year since 1945 which resulted in millions of deaths. 

since 2001, U.S. Drone and air strikes may have killed as many as 48,000 civilians:

US airstrikes killed at least 22,000 civilians since 9/11, analysis finds | Global development | The Guardian

Just in 2022 you have wars ongoing in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Ethiopia, Suadan, South Sudan, Congo, etc..

There are 82 million refugees or internally displaced persons worldwide.

There is nothing special about this war in terms of human suffering that we have not seen before.

The only difference now is that this war is getting massive media attention.

Not really what I am talking about.  More about the global order and how it is failing while we are to busy either arguing with each other or chasing some nonsensical visions of the future.  Humanity is a harsh place and if you want to stay on top you have to earn it.  We in the west forgot that somewhere along the way.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Suchy said:

@Erwin

We, as Poland, could not hand over these aircraft directly, as we are already a frontline state. This can only be done by NATO as a single military bloc. Ideally, the greatest superpower, the USA, would do this on behalf of NATO. And it will not be the beginning of the Third World War, because we are now handing over weapons as effective as the MANPAD Piorun and the Third War has not broken out.

we ought to have Luxembourg hand them over 

[DesertFox]

Just now, sburke said:

we ought to have Luxembourg hand them over 

Do they even have an airport?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ok, time for a stupid question:

Why do we need to increase NATO budgets?

Even now, NATO is vastly more powerful (and funded) than the Russian Army, and given their miserable performance so far, it doesn't seem like Russia could even take on a single NATO country in a conventional war - let alone the whole bloc. And that's before we even bring nuclear deterrence into this.

This is not a stupid question at all.

I have always been against the arbitrary NATO spending guideline.  What I'd like to see is a comprehensive evaluation of what a unified NATO force needs to be and require each nation to contribute to it.  If that comes out to be less than 2%, that's fine with me.

Germany, on the other hand, is a bit of a special case.  It has neglected its forces for a very long time.  A major rise in spending is the only way to address years of under funding.  I just hope they think through what they want the BW to look like after this money is invested.

Steve

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ok, time for a stupid question:

Why do we need to increase NATO budgets?

Even now, NATO is vastly more powerful (and funded) than the Russian Army, and given their miserable performance so far, it doesn't seem like Russia could even take on a single NATO country in a conventional war - let alone the whole bloc. And that's before we even bring nuclear deterrence into this.

Obviously NATO budgets need to increase so that future versions of CM will have more gear for us to play with.  Why else?

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So, another morning passes in Ukraine we still don't see the great offensives that have been predicted by so many folks?  Will it actually happen?  Do they have the resources?

Russians are regrouping and massing own forces near Kyiv. Today just was a day of "humanitarian corridors", so Russians are limiting themeselves with periodical shellings. Though there was a report about enemy armored column of 35 vehicles advance on Brovary (east from Kyiv), but I didn't read anything more about it. Maybe it will be knowingly tomorrow 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

10 minutes ago, Suchy said:

@Erwin

We, as Poland, could not hand over these aircraft directly, as we are already a frontline state. This can only be done by NATO as a single military bloc. Ideally, the greatest superpower, the USA, would do this on behalf of NATO. And it will not be the beginning of the Third World War, because we are now handing over weapons as effective as the MANPAD Piorun and the Third War has not broken out.

I wonder if the US is also acting as a clear 'fire-break' here. If Poland gives them direct to Ukraine,  then maybe that is in danger of blurring the line between giving equipment  and getting militarily involved: if they take off from Poland (which had pilots trained on them) and engage in combat in Ukraine,  its it sufficiently clear that there aren't Polish pilots involved. 

Giving them to the US is the kind of diplomatic fiction to avoid this: they are now the US's planes, and it *doesn't* have pilots combat trained in them.  So when the US gives them to Ukraine, only one of the countries in that exchange have suitably trained pilots.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

we ought to have Luxembourg hand them over 

I vote for giving them to the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.  Would complement their Q Bomb quite nicely.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians are regrouping and massing own forces near Kyiv. Today just was a day of "humanitarian corridors", so Russians are limiting themeselves with periodical shellings. Though there was a report about enemy armored column of 35 vehicles advance on Brovary (east from Kyiv), but I didn't read anything more about it. Maybe it will be knowingly tomorrow 

I hope your forces can cut off and crush that column.  Hopefully they are roadbound and vulnerable, especially their follow-on supply convoys.

[chris talpas]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ok, time for a stupid question:

Why do we need to increase NATO budgets?

Even now, NATO is vastly more powerful (and funded) than the Russian Army, and given their miserable performance so far, it doesn't seem like Russia could even take on a single NATO country in a conventional war - let alone the whole bloc. And that's before we even bring nuclear deterrence into this.

How about then for the sake of fareness.  How many countries, my own included^1, have basically failed to adequately fund their militaries letting just a few of the NATO members do most of the heavy lifting?

I think this conflict taught us that it is a 'come as you are war', where you better have adequate kit on hand since there will be no time  to procure it.

I'm pretty sure the U.S. wouldn't be upset at seeing all the members putting forth effort to shoulder more responsibility for the collective defense of the alliance.

¹ -Not taking away from the amazing things the Cdn Armed Forces have done despite the less than ideal government support