John Kettler Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: I think you meant to say "small to miniscule chance" based on Russian performance to date. Commercial drones run at the same frequency range as wifi and even cellphones (I have seen videos on line of people using cell receivers to greatly increase range). So what? Well because the Russians completely failed to achieve information/communications superiority the Ukraine is one massive EM Christmas tree right now (see: Twitter feeds), so all that really sexy Russian kit is going to be overwhelmed. With enough time, they may be able to figure out if that signal is a drone but right now there is likely way too much noise. That, and the very large assumption that those Russian Drone hunter vehicles have gas and aren't being pulled away by the UKR tractor brigade. The_Capt, In the past, the Russians have shown themselves to be highly capable of DFing and accurately shelling UA troops who were using cell phones, so much so that the UA issued specific warnings on that score. Also, the warning seems to be predicated on the reported capabilities of the Russians to deal with drones, apparently chiefly through what Rosboronexport has released, rather than what we're seeing now in a hot war rather than counter jihadi situation. WE know, from a POW report, that the Russians in Ukraine have done an ELINT emitter location sweep early in the invasion, based on instructions to Russian troops to shut off all their cell phones for a specified period. Regards, John Kettler Edited March 7, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White2Golf Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, danfrodo said: I saw some good news today. I've been worried about how well the pipeline of weapons is getting to the front. NYTimes article today indicates that US supplied weapons were actually getting there very quickly. I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays. It was amazing to see that when the bureaucracy is removed, how fast things can happen. During my time in, when stuff you had been asking for suddenly shows up, all at once.... It's time to get your game face on. All that to say, I am happy to hear/see that the good stuff is getting to the friction points rapidly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, danfrodo said: I saw some good news today. I've been worried about how well the pipeline of weapons is getting to the front. NYTimes article today indicates that US supplied weapons were actually getting there very quickly. I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays. And now I hope for some kind of non-linear event to break the current flow of events. I was hoping for Putin to be overthrown somehow, but that hasn't happened. Maybe a better chance is for mass mutinies of russian units who are hungry & scared. We see it on very small scale as perfectly fine vehicles being abandoned, but hopefully it will spread. Or if not mutinies then low enough morale that units are not combat effective, falling back immediately upon taking fire. While I'd hope for a greater response from Russian citizens, there are signs of people willing to risk the response of Putin's goons. More than 4,500 antiwar protesters arrested in one day in Russia, group says (msn.com) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, John Kettler said: The_Capt, In the past, the Russians have shown themselves to be highly capable of DFing and accurately shelling UA troops using cell phones, so much so that the UA issued specific warnings on that score. Also, the warning seems to be predicated on the reported capabilities of the Russians to deal with drones, apparently chiefly through what Rosboronexport has released, rather than what we're seeing now in a hot war rather than counter jihadi situation. WE know, from a POW report, that the Russians in Ukraine have done an ELINT emitter location sweep early in the invasion, based on instructions to Russian troops to shut off all their cell phones for a specified period. Regards, John Kettler John, you got some citations on the Russian DFing capability in this war because frankly it is sucking. I have seen nothing on "warnings" on widespread shutting down of cellphones. The fact that we are seeing a mountain of open source int and freakin Zoom calls from UKR politicians, I see zero evidenced that Russians have even come close to posing a threat in this area. There were some reports of Russian SF doing jamming west of Kyiv but not sure what that accomplished. We have enough drone footage to string together a documentary coming out of Ukraine right now so whatever "ELINT sweep" the Russians did it failed gloriously. There is no metric of superiority one can apply to the Russians in the information space right now in any spectrum, nor have they demonstrated the coordination to do precision strike on a single drone operator. This is a "hot war" in a nation with massive communications architecture, that makes doing what that article is warning about much harder, not easier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Next fuel tankers convoy destroyed by territorial defense in Pryluky area, Chernihiv oblast. "O" marking visible. Ref Fulda gap helo lifespan, I wonder what's the current RUS tanker truck timeline.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 On 3/1/2022 at 10:21 AM, akd said: Please don’t post Sun nonsense. They can’t even spell “fueling.” Center for Defence Strategies is a UA military think tank. If The Sun's original report was correct, it would seem , then, that the initial refusal was overcome (by threats, force or both), the invasion flotilla was launched, then either recalled or there was another refusal to fight, leading to a mission abort. http://old.defence.org.ua/en/home/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
db_zero Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Lethaface said: I read reports that Poland will buy 200-300 Abrams, said to be M1A2SEPv3. Not sure if that's accurate / will those be same spec as used by US Army? IIRC not even Australia could get those, although that was a while ago / different times. I guess the thinking may be if we give Poland the very latest version and it ends up being used in a conflict then its WW3 and the next world war will be fought with sticks and stones so may as well give them the latest version. When all is said and done Russia is going to be faced with an even more formidable NATO on its doorstep. Poland getting Abrams and probably F-16s in return for giving Ukraine its old Russian jets, Germany re-arming and talk of re-instituting a draft and a re-vitalized NATO who now has a purpose. Even if Sweden and Finland don't join NATO they are likely going to be spending more on defense and start coordination with NATO and the west. Watching a news report that in the past week 20,000 anti-tank and anti air missiles to Ukraine. That is freaking insane. No wonder its become a killing ground. Edited March 7, 2022 by db_zero 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) "Interesting" tactics, moving along rail lines with trucks... Edited March 7, 2022 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commanderski Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, db_zero said: 200-300 Abrams Based on the way Russia is performing 200-300 Abrams would be more than enough to take care of Russia. Just add a little air support and some covering infantry and you're good to go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just now, Commanderski said: Based on the way Russia is performing 200-300 Abrams would be more than enough to take care of Russia. Just add a little air support and some covering infantry and you're good to go. If you forget the necessary logistics you will be f*cked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, db_zero said: I guess the thinking may be if we give Poland the very latest version and it ends up being used in a conflict then its WW3 and the next world war will be fought with sticks and stones so may as well give them the latest version. As an added bonus, it gives plausible deniability for supplying Poland with more tanks in the future along with 'volunteers' to crew them. If you tried donating M1s to Ukraine right now, no-one would be fooled. If they'd already had a fleet of M1s the same as those in use by the US army, it gets a lot easier. (Not claiming that this is in any way a realistic or likely course of events, just a random thought). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just now, DesertFox said: If you forget the necessary logistics you will be f*cked. The Russian fiasco is going to be taught in staff colleges for a 1000 years. The ultimate what not do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 That touched my heart. Watch till the end. 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, danfrodo said: I saw some good news today. I've been worried about how well the pipeline of weapons is getting to the front. NYTimes article today indicates that US supplied weapons were actually getting there very quickly. I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays. And now I hope for some kind of non-linear event to break the current flow of events. I was hoping for Putin to be overthrown somehow, but that hasn't happened. Maybe a better chance is for mass mutinies of russian units who are hungry & scared. We see it on very small scale as perfectly fine vehicles being abandoned, but hopefully it will spread. Or if not mutinies then low enough morale that units are not combat effective, falling back immediately upon taking fire. Dan, that ain't gonna happen. We can only hope with our help Ukraine fights on and makes the bastards bleed, the sanctions will completely ruin Russia's economy and the West will make Putin and all his little helpers pay for his crimes. We'll get 'em, don't worry. And this time we won't let them off so easily. And if they are stupid enough to attack NATO we will teach them a lesson they will NEVER forget. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Is that confirmed? That would be great if true. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Su-30SM shot down near Popasna town, Luhansk oblast. Filming from inside "Osa" SAM 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Has the UA used antitank mines yet? Look what the Russians brought with them to deal intimately with that threat! ️Спутник News АТО @Sputnik ATOПрес-служба полку «Азов»: «Результат роботи бійців полку Азов. Багато знищеної російської бронетехніки та особового складу. Також до нас потрапила документація ворога з поіменним списком підрозділу та адресами їх проживання. А в росії знову скажуть, що втрат немає». 2/2Translated from Ukrainian by The press service of the Azov Regiment: "The result of the work of the Azov Regiment fighters. Many destroyed Russian armored vehicles and personnel. We also received enemy documentation with a list of units and their addresses. And in Russia they will say again that there are no losses. " 2/2 On a separate note, have seen multiple posts claiming Ukraine has been given 17,000- 20,000 antitank weapons and SAMs, yet in lists of arms supplied/to be supplied, haven't seen more 20% of that tops. One or more of these must be behind the whopping figure: The detailed weapon shipment reporting is woefully behind, the huge numbers are the result of gross ignorance combined with worse research, or we're being fed a giant load of codswallop. From something I read earlier but now can't find, believe this is a modern Russian corvette which achieved the unique status of being hit, while at sea, by a GRAD strike. That could also be completely wrong, too.️Спутник News АТО @SputnikATO·6h«Русский корабль» який таки пішов нах*й — за попередньою інформацію від КВМСУ, нанесено вогневе враження патрульному кораблю проєкту 22160 «Василий Быков» ЧФ РФ. Ukrainian detected English Russian ship", which did go no*y — according to preliminary information from the CWMSU, a fire impression was made to the patrol ship of project 22160 "Vasily Bykov" of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation Would say the fire impression was memorable! Regards, John Ketter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, John Kettler said: Regards, John Ketter Haiduk posted this 3 hours and two pages ago. Stop already. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White2Golf Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, Commanderski said: Based on the way Russia is performing 200-300 Abrams would be more than enough to take care of Russia. Just add a little air support and some covering infantry and you're good to go. Assuming they were crewed by people who know how to operate and (more importantly....) maintain them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, danfrodo said: I was thinking bureacracy and logistical friction would cause long delays. Time won with Minsk accords was used absolutely to its fullest to change a lot of things in the army. This is why it was such a shock for russians when they realized they aren't fighting an army that was stuck in the '80s together with them, like it was back in 2014 - but an army that trained hard for years by NATO in how to do logistics and insurgency. Of course UAF isn't as effective as US army in that regard - but the difference is major. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, sburke said: Haiduk posted this 3 hours and two pages ago. Stop already. When I first got back here hours ago, I clearly stated I was some 80 pages behind. Between catchup reading and posting, have now narrowed the gap to some 58 pages. Given my huge backlog, information duplication is inevitable. Looked at what Haiduk said, which confirmed what I'd read ref corvette hit by rocket attacks, but I have some hot news. The ship hit and set ablaze, corvette VASYL BYKOV, pride of the Black Sea Fleet, sank today! https://rubryka.com/en/2022/03/07/vasyl-bykov-zatoplenyj/ Regards, John Kettler Edited March 7, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, John Kettler said: When I first got back here hours ago, I clearly stated I was some 80 pages behind. Between catchup reading and posting, have now narrowed the gap to some 58 pages. Given my huge backlog, information duplication is inevitable. Shall go back and see what Haiduk said. Regards, John Kettler that was posted SINCE you started posting 8 hours ago.. Not 80 pages back. You may want to be PART of the conversation and pay particular attention to haiduk's posts BEFORE posting. It isn't inevitable. Edited March 7, 2022 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 If true, where is the 2nd wave then? Putin has now deployed into Ukraine nearly 100% of the more than 150,000 forces that he had pre-staged outside the country before the invasion, a senior US defence official said today "That's our best estimate right now," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Russia-Ukraine latest news: Vladimir Putin sets out price of peace (telegraph.co.uk) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, DesertFox said: If true, where is the 2nd wave then? waiting for truck transport? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Dan, that ain't gonna happen. We can only hope with our help Ukraine fights on and makes the bastards bleed, the sanctions will completely ruin Russia's economy and the West will make Putin and all his little helpers pay for his crimes. We'll get 'em, don't worry. And this time we won't let them off so easily. And if they are stupid enough to attack NATO we will teach them a lesson they will NEVER forget. I hear you Aragorn. Unlikely, but I am hoping for non-linear events to change the current trajectory. And yes, it's is just a hope, not a prediction. Think of ceaucescu (sp?) of Romania, late 80s. Never thought he could fall. Then BAM he's in a courtyard being shot. These things can happen. What is more likely is that they'll run out of fuel trucks! Yet another fuel truck convoy destroyed/captured. and now there's trains w what appear to be commandeered civilian trucks. That's reeks of desperation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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