How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

When old women in puffy jackets face down your rifles with the flag around their shoulders, youre just done. This is how you end up like Cortes in Mexico, sure you have city hall but the other side has the entire rest of the city and has you besieged. 

I agree with the first part, but maybe Cortés is not the best example, unless you think Putin will win in the end.

[John Kettler]

On 2/28/2022 at 1:07 PM, Armorgunner said:

https://espreso.tv/do-1400-bulo-znishcheno-ponad-200-odinits-tekhniki-okupantiv-na-napryamkakh-trasi-irpin-zhitomir-arestovich

 

Is that true? @Haiduk 200 destroyed vehicles? @Battlefront.com

 

"At 14:00 more than 200 units of equipment were destroyed by the occupiers on the road Irpin-Zhytomyr, - Arestovich"

"Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych said that more than 200 units of enemy equipment were destroyed this morning on the Irpin-Zhytomyr highway
He wrote on his Facebook about the loss of the enemy on the route between Kyiv and Zhytomyr.

"My God, you would know how we sweep them in the morning near Kyiv. According to confirmed estimates, by 2 pm more than 200 units of various vehicles on the Irpin-Zhytomyr highway were destroyed and damaged," Arestovich said."

These translations are very confusing. Most English speakers would interpret the first line of text to mean the occupiers (the Russians) destroyed 200 units (in the form of individual AFVs, MT, artillery and such) of UA  AFVs, weapons, transports, etc., not the UA did this to the Russians. Once understood correctly, though, sounds like the Ukrainians have created their own version of the Highway of Death in Iraq. And the more they hit it, the harder it becomes to recover from it: in terms of unit viability in manpower, materiel and morale. Were the Ukrainians not so busy elsewhere, they could doubtless demolish the entire column, given enough time and munitions.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Remains of Russian Su-34, which was shot down yesterday over Kharkiv. One of the crew was captured. He is Maxim Krishtop, lt.colonel, deputy commander of 47th bomber regiment, Buturlinovka airfield, Voroniezh oblast. This regiment was moved there in 2020-2021 from Far East (in that time it named 47th mixed aviatin regiment)

Interrogation of lt.colonel Krishtop. Most interesting fragments. He says their regiment has 24 planes (Su-34), but only about 15 +/- are operational. He conducted three sorties in Kharkiv oblast - between Izium and Balakliya and north from Kharkiv. He rejects he was bombing civilians and says he executed the orders and worked only at coordinates, not having visual contact with an objectives. The task put for them personally Oleg Makovetskyi, mayor-general. commander of 6th Air Force and air defense Army. Dark irony - this general was born in Chuhuiv town in Kharkiv oblast and now he orders to bomb own "small motherland"

 

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

On 2/28/2022 at 1:12 PM, danfrodo said:

Insane courage!

danfrodo,

This is the Ukrainian version of a warm reception--a hastily thrown together (Putin) cocktail party! That appears to be a long range radio track, for that's unambiguously a stowed tall mast on the left hand deck of that AFV.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by John Kettler

[akd]

41 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

As I noted in my earlier post, had not seen the content in the 70+ pages unread by me during my, er, absence.

Then take some time to review it. You are spamming the thread with stuff that has already been posted.

[John Kettler]

On 2/28/2022 at 2:22 PM, Vic4 said:

With the invasion being such an incomparably catastrophic f-up in every conceivable way for Putin and his regime; is there really any way to avoid nuclear brinkmanship at this point and how to proceed in that event? ...As Steve said very far up thread, there's nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal (much less rabid), and now they are even threatening "consequences" for any nation that provides lethal arms/means to Ukraine which most NATO countries have already committed to very publicly. This is a contemporary Cuban Missile crisis but perhaps exponentially worse because it truly is involving the whole world. 

...long time (decade+) lurker, own all the games etc. Thanks BF for keeping this thread open. Appreciate any response or thoughts regarding the above question. 

Vic4,

As I pointedly mentioned only a few days into the war, when the Russians were already meeting determined-ferocious resistance, Russian strategic doctrine explicitly recognizes the use of a nuclear weapon or weapons to restore the status quo, i.e., a positive Correlation of Forces. in a situation in which it was negative at the time the nuclear attack was authorized to restore the situation. Went on to say that strategic nukes wouldn't be necessary to yield operational-strategic results, either. Further note the 2S4 Tyulpan nuclear capable SPM was for sure in Ukraine in 2015. I place zero credence, absent lots of hard evidence to the contrary, that the Russians have abandoned nuclear and CW munitions for this powerful weapon system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S4_Tyulpan

Nuclear weapon delivery via mortar has much to recommend it, since it doesn't create the scary possibilities attendant to missile launch, in which misidentification by strategic missile launch warning systems could lead to, as the jargon has it, a strategic nuclear exchange.

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, George MC said:

Not sure if this been posted as yet. 

summary and analysis of current situation especially in the south. 

His primary argument that the “south matters” due to seaports is only valid once this war is over.  Russian does have air and sea control, or at least denial that area, so no aid or commerce is going to be coming in and out of those southern ports while the war is on (unless Russian completely drops the ball, which is a distinct possibility).

I suspect the Ukrainians will fight for every inch in the south because it is their home but the Ukrainian centres of gravity right now are Kyiv, the will to fight, and keeping LOCs open from the west.  If all those port cities fall, it will most definitely complicate negotiations and hit global morale but the Ukrainian war machine is not really effected because the Russians have cut off the souther approaches already.

[BeondTheGrave]

These are the most specific set of negotiation points I've seen so far from the Russian side. I suspect that the 'any blocs' language would probably apply as much to the EU as to NATO membership, both would have the same effect of icing out Russian influence. I tend to think that Ukraine might be willing to trade either NATO OR! the EU for peace, but I cant see a situation where this war ends with a Zelensky government in Kyiv and a Western security guarantee for Ukraine. 

edit: Follow up from the rumor mill

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Fernando]

44 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I agree with the first part, but maybe Cortés is not the best example, unless you think Putin will win in the end.

I agree. Perhaps a better example would be the British invasion of Buenos Aires in 1805. A profesional army assaults a city with no walls defended by some profesionals but mostly militia, gets trapped inside and it is forced to surrender.

[SteelRain]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Careful with what "operational" means, it could simply mean "ready" in some sort of managed readiness system that most western countries use.  This does not mean the tanks "not operational" are sitting on the shop floor in pieces, it means the crews are in some stage of training.

Currently a vehicle of the Bundeswehre is considered not operational if a turn signal is not working because every vehicle has to comply with the rules of the civil Road Traffic Licensing Regulation, the so called Straßenverkehrsordnung.

[John Kettler]

On 2/28/2022 at 3:20 PM, Bulletpoint said:

Why do people keep referring to this rocket launcher as some kind of nuke? The videos I've seen of it firing show it firing a barrage of rockets, yes... but nothing like a nuclear weapon. Nothing that will level a city in one go.

TOS-!, TOS-1A and now the latest, TOS-2, provide the ability to achieve highly localized low yield (micro nuke) nuclear-level devastation but without prompt radiation, persistent radiation, nuclear fallout or the risk, save under the most extraordinary conditions, of a nuclear response. These weapon systems are the fulfillment of the Russian need to decisively shatter centers of resistance, especially in MOUT, without putting the troops through the sort of meat grinder both Stalingrad and Grozny were. These weapons are highly effective against both fortified positions and dug-in troops, including those in cellars. Massed fires by these weapons on, say, Kviv, would cause devastation and casualties on a scale that would beggar description. The Russians have a multitude of sizes and delivery means for thermobaric weapons, ranging from the Tu-160 delivered FOAB capable of low end tactical nuclear yield down to the man-portable RPO-M and RPG-7.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon

The Russians don't have to level the city in one go, merely surround it and start ripping it apart and setting it ablaze in fearsome bites. If this is done, it will make Grad, Uragan and Smerch HE strikes seem tame. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Thomm]

John, please do not respond to posts that are a week old!

It just does not make any sense.

All the best
Thomm

[DesertFox]

21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

These are the most specific set of negotiation points I've seen so far from the Russian side.

I would tell them to go f**k themselves.

[kraze]

37 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

These are the most specific set of negotiation points I've seen so far from the Russian side. I suspect that the 'any blocs' language would probably apply as much to the EU as to NATO membership, both would have the same effect of icing out Russian influence. I tend to think that Ukraine might be willing to trade either NATO OR! the EU for peace, but I cant see a situation where this war ends with a Zelensky government in Kyiv and a Western security guarantee for Ukraine. 

edit: Follow up from the rumor mill

 

The only reason Russia demands we don't join NATO - is so that they can murder us indefinitely until no Ukrainian is left alive.

The only threat from NATO to Russia is that their ****ty army will cease existing in 3 days conventionally when they will try to start another genocidal war with any of the members.

Granted even that isn't guaranteed seeing as NATO is afraid of a bunch (a large bunch) of retards that can only win decisive victories versus schools and hospitals.

Edited March 7, 2022 by kraze

[Lethaface]

I read reports that Poland will buy 200-300 Abrams, said to be M1A2SEPv3. Not sure if that's accurate / will those be same spec as used by US Army? IIRC not even Australia could get those, although that was a while ago / different times. 

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Look at zero reaction about Finland and Sweden joining NATO this very year

I very much doubt that Russia is happy with that situation. But there is little they can do as long as they are enmeshed in this Ukraine fiasco.

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

The only reason Russia demands we don't join NATO - is so that they can murder us indefinitely

But this seems like the most likely outcome, without a western security guarantee it seems probable that we would just come back here again in five years or whenever Putin's polling numbers start to sag again. This, IMO, is why the 'no blocs' condition is a 100% non-negotiable point for the Ukraine team. Even more than Zelensky, the DR/LR, or Crimea, Ukraine has to pursue some kind of collective arrangement to ensure their future independence. 

[Haiduk]

Russian ship is burnig in the sea in Chornomorsk area. This night Russian stationary ship was shelled with Grad and several rockets hit it (I posted a video of the salvo in previous post)

Reportedly this is "Vasiliy Bykov" patrol corvette, pr.22160 (close to western OPV class of ships). This class of ships as module structure and can be equipped with Uran or Kalibr missiles, but currently they havn't it. "Vasiliy Bykov" was enetered to service in December 2018.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

Just now, BeondTheGrave said:

I very much doubt that Russia is happy with that situation. But there is little they can do as long as they are enmeshed in this Ukraine fiasco.

But this seems like the most likely outcome, without a western security guarantee it seems probable that we would just come back here again in five years or whenever Putin's polling numbers start to sag again. This, IMO, is why the 'no blocs' condition is a 100% non-negotiable point for the Ukraine team. Even more than Zelensky, the DR/LR, or Crimea, Ukraine has to pursue some kind of collective arrangement to ensure their future independence. 

At this point no russian demands can ever be accepted - except maybe a demand to eat something when their wheresmyiphone-imsoantiwar "regime fighters" start starving and maybe then we will offer them a big Ukrainian dick.

Because with non-stop warcrimes russians made sure this is so personal to anyone of us - accepting any kind of demands will be legit suicidal for Zelenskyy.

Nobody will just accept giving anything to genocidal maniacs. Because as long as Russia exists - there will always be death and suffering.

 

[DesertFox]

ebay could make good revenue these times...another Pantsir...

 

 

[DesertFox]

Vicinity of Mariupol

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

ebay could make good revenue these times...another Pantsir...

 

 

This one at least looks like it has working tires!

How many of these things does Russia even have? Arnt they like Divisional AD assets? How can so many have been captured, are Ukrainian tractors just driving in and out of DivHQ motor parks taking whatever they like?

[DesertFox]

Just now, BeondTheGrave said:

are Ukrainian tractors just driving in and out of DivHQ motor parks taking whatever they like?

LOL!

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Pantsyr... in very good condition

 

The cameraman says "we shelled it and it just had a time to drive here. Now we will destroy it completely"

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This one at least looks like it has working tires!

How many of these things does Russia even have? Arnt they like Divisional AD assets? How can so many have been captured, are Ukrainian tractors just driving in and out of DivHQ motor parks taking whatever they like?

The Russian BTG TO&E looks like it has 2 platoons each of 3 Pantsir systems, so that's 6 per BTG on paper. I've no idea what fraction of the 'BTG's being used in Ukraine actually conform to the official BTG concept (I'd imagine the follow on forces that are classed as BTGs have different TO&E) - and no idea what fraction of the units actually have the authorised allotment of vehicles.

[Suchy]

@Lethaface

Yes, we are buying 250 Abrams in the latest possible configuration. The exact details of the equipment are not known. But the first tanks may not arrive in Poland until a year or two from now.