How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

Just read that Netherlands will supply more aid to Ukraine: vehicles, rations, sleeping bags, laptops and protective clothing.

The interesting part is that the ministry of Defense doesn't want to confirm what type of 'vehicles' will be delivered, but stressed that they can be delivered to Ukraine.

Now I guess it will probably be some old trucks lol. But why the secrecy in that case? 

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Apparently Russia has requested a list of American/western arms that will not be sent to Ukraine.

* ICBM
* F22
* B2
* Classified

Lol

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

USSR fell not because russians changed, but because Afghanistan (and other events like Chernobyl) has shown how weak and extremely corrupt russian occupiers are to occupied nations.

And so this russian empire started gradually crumbling all over - from "GDR" to Russia itself.

However russians themselves didn't welcome the change as evidenced by them outright supporting a much more hardline Yeltsin coming to power instead of a "weak" Gorbachev.

Yeltsin was seen by russians as a guy that will save the empire - which he immediately proceeded to do by starting bloody wars in countries that opposed being occupied or forcing less resisting countries to accept russian military bases on their territory as a twisted "kill-switch" that would lead to eventual re-occupation and recreation of USSR (politically known as "CIS").

Yelstin didn't get to do it all due to age and health issues - so he transferred his power to putin, who simply continued rebuilding USSR.

Note how not a single time russians tried to oppose anything since 1991.

Look, fair point that it was a complex system collapse but I am not really buying that Russian domestic pressure had nothing to do with it.  At a minimum the Russian public stood aside and let their empire collapse; however, I think that there was pressure and permission in Russian society for this change to happen, as you say at the end of quite a long process.

The real point is that Ukraine, and the west, had better hope pray that the Russian CoG of domestic pressure works, or they will have a lot less options.  If the Russian people honestly believe that this whole thing is existential to them and not just one Charlie Brown looking autocrat, then Ukraine will definitely lose this war, the only question left is how?  Western support will continue but there will be no M1A2s rolling in to drive the Russians out, or no fly zone or anything beyond what we are already seeing; that train is not coming.  Why?  Because the west in not ready to re-set civilization over this unless Russia uses WMDs first at which point the Ukraine becomes irrelevant and we finally get to see if a nuclear ware is really winnable or not.

[BeondTheGrave]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

There is a suggestion that A-10s be transferred to Ukraine. Could be done in a few days. Training of pilots to use it could be done in a short time, but what exactly that means is open to interpretation. The A-10 was designed to operate from austere locations.

Interesting suggestion but I doubt how practical it would be. On the other hand if volunteers who already have experience with the A-10 could be found then it could be a valuable addition. I just don't know how the sight of American A-10s operation in the Ukraine would be interpenetrated by Russia - even though on the ground they are  suffering greatly from Western supplied weapons.

Apparently Russia has requested a list of American/western arms that will not be sent to Ukraine.

DCS aside, I dont know that you could teach a pilot from scratch how to fly an A-10, or any other aircraft, in just a 'few days.' Its one of the problems I've seen with the fighter jet news stories being brought up. You might be able to get a an Su-25 pilot to take off and land an A-10 rather quickly, but all US hardware has very complicated and unique avionics. I dont think you can just plop an Su-25 trained pilot, with a weeks cross training, in to an A-10 and expect him to do well while Tunguska rounds are bursting around his head. Its a nice dream but pretty unrealistic. 

Also the A-10 is the symbol of American CAS power. It would be pretty provocative to deploy such an iconic airframe to a place where the US is supposed to not be involved. IMO the best effort is in bringing ex-Soviet and Pact airpower to pilots who just need a new airframe. 

[womble]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

Ukrainian Special forces were going to change how the treated Russian artillerymen. Their mothers are going to get a different kind of phone call.

19 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

You mean by killing them if they capture them? That's a war crime. Most of those guys probably don't even know what they are shooting at.

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No, our SOFs just meant they will eleiminate artillery crews with no mercy during night search&destroy raids. This is not the same that executing of POWs

So their mothers pretty much won't be getting a phone call at all, since Russia isn't going to be doing the "I regret to inform" duty until this is well over. Can't have the home front finding out how many sons of Russia are getting killed for one man's ego and another man's skewed perception of history. I don't imagine the SF operators will be taking the time to open up the conscripts' address books to find their mama's phone number...

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, db_zero said:

There is a suggestion that A-10s be transferred to Ukraine. Could be done in a few days. Training of pilots to use it could be done in a short time, but what exactly that means is open to interpretation. The A-10 was designed to operate from austere locations.

Interesting suggestion but I doubt how practical it would be. On the other hand if volunteers who already have experience with the A-10 could be found then it could be a valuable addition. I just don't know how the sight of American A-10s operation in the Ukraine would be interpenetrated by Russia - even though on the ground they are  suffering greatly from Western supplied weapons.

Apparently Russia has requested a list of American/western arms that will not be sent to Ukraine.

The American response about what we won't sell the the Ukrainians should be " Well, it is going to take six months to get them up to speed on their news submarines, but other wise they have a blank check."

[riptides]

The EU effort on transferring aircraft to Ukrainian pilots came and went a few days ago.

Getting US aircraft into the mix is a non-starter.

And those were surplus aircraft the Ukrainians are familiar with.

Edited March 3, 2022 by riptides
added surplus a/c

[BeondTheGrave]

A piece of unique on the ground reporting came in to me today. I have in my possession a never before seen picture of Zelensky drafting his official response to Putin's recent speech:

(for those not in the know)

[akd]

UA SOF took out at least 4 VDV BMD-2s:

 

[BeondTheGrave]

 

[Ts4EVER]

150 billion rubles? Gee...

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

This thread is really interesting; I actually wrote a paper about this dual 'shock troops and regime cops' role for VDV in uni during the 1980s.

It's not a reserve for a big war. Nope. It's a reserve for suppressing mutinies within Russia or in neighbouring countries. And that's largely done through psyops. Thus they work hard to seem scary.

Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance.... And after that initial failure the entire plan was broken.... Russia didn't plan for war and simply pushed forward with just one army echelon, so supply lines are unguarded....

VDV were also central players in the 1991 coup attempt, although they ultimately obeyed higher Army orders to return to barracks (I remember surly paras in Moscow flipping the bird to CNN cameras from their BMDs).

Such checks and balances among military and paramilitary forces is known in many countries; in many Asian countries the 'police' has its own armour and can stand off a rebel army unit in a meeting engagement.

Even the USA has some special internal roles for the 82nd Airborne and Marines; the various unit deployments around Washington DC today are no mere accident of history.

[BeondTheGrave]

"Stability in the oil market" reads to me like 'were ready to drown Moscow in Oil for all times and transition Europe permanently over to Saudi supplies.' I wonder how much unused production Saudi Arabia has in the short term. Its been something I've been thinking about since the beginning really, how much can Saudi ramp up to fill in the gap from Russia. IIRC though they dont have the same LNG supplies that Russia does, which means that US production will have to step in to cover a shortage there. Of course Russian petrol shipments havn't stopped, yet. 

[Kraft]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

UA SOF took out at least 4 VDV BMD-2s:

[video]

Makes me want to beg Battlefront for a Special Forces module not gonna lie

[George MC]

Burning Tunguska

 

[Holien]

The start of the insurgency? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60607649

 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Makes me want to beg Battlefront for a Special Forces module not gonna lie

It has been discussed, but it is tricky and there is just so much other stuff out there.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, George MC said:

Burning Tunguska

 

Military failure on an incomprehensible world historic scale.

[akd]

1 minute ago, Holien said:

The start of the insurgency? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60607649

 

Dude, it has already begun.  Russia holds nothing but some roads, and those poorly.

[Seedorf81]

Since it looks like the Ukranians are getting a load of weapons and supplies from a lot of countries, how about their manpower? Does Ukraine has enough capable men/women to keep on fighting in a professional way? 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Seedorf81
Never able to spell correctly in one go

[Seedorf81]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Military failure on an incomprehensible world historic scale.

Been reading and learning about all kinds of wars in history since I was ten years old, but this military performance is so stunning that I only can compare it with the chaotic and incompetent way the Italian Army fought during WW2.

I'm baffled.

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Dude, it has already begun.  Russia holds nothing but some roads, and those poorly.

Yeah there was that video of the people in the car who threw a molotov at a BTR and caught their arm on fire in the process. If thats not insurgent tactics I dont know what is. 

[riptides]

27 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

150 billion rubles? Gee...

I guess they are not keeping up with the Ruble value in todays market.

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Military failure on an incomprehensible world historic scale.

I think the French defeat in 1939 is gonna hand off the torch to Putin.

[Vacillator]

So today's dumb question from me - all this expensive hardware being captured some seemingly intact, I don't see any of it being transferred to new military owners (only farmers ).  Does that mean it's not being used by new owners, it's not worth it, or does it mean it is but we're unlikely to see evidence of it?