How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

Just now, akd said:

Not from the side into the hull, which is probably what the bags were meant to help with.

There were supposed to be three large panels of era on the front hull sides right? The purpose of those panels are to stop single charge heat warheads like a rpg-7V/VL. Of course no mbt will survive a side hit to a semi-modern LAT. 

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, Holien said:

Trying to get a clear indication of the arm band, that they are wearing? Clearly a propaganda video shot.

Nothing like that shown for the Russian troops which is telling. 

A bit like the photo shoot of the UKR troops on the bridge for the media early on in the WAR...

Kadyrov's trpoops are just formally belong to Rosgvardia (Russain National Guard). In really this is his personal army, which he equips in most modern gears and hires to train them best instructors. Putin pays astronomic budget funds to Chechnia for Kadyrov's loyality, so he can equip own troops on own taste. 

You can hear how troopers say "Allah akbar!" and "Akhmat - sila!", the slogan of Chehen football funs ("Akhmat" is Chechenian football club, named in honor of Akhmat Kadyrov, the father of Ramzan Kadyrov)

Edited March 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

7 minutes ago, Artkin said:

There were supposed to be three large panels of era on the front hull sides right? The purpose of those panels are to stop single charge heat warheads like a rpg-7V/VL. Of course no mbt will survive a side hit to a semi-modern LAT. 

It’s a single unspaced layer, so likely would not have much reduced effects at high angles from the side.  From the typical combat arc of 30 degrees from front, probably very effective.

Edited March 3, 2022 by akd

[DerKommissar]

54 minutes ago, kraze said:

Note how not a single time russians tried to oppose anything since 1991.

That's what Putin wants us to believe. What about Politkovskaya? And plenty others who were poisoned, killed, tortured and/or imprisoned for speaking out.

Not to mention the string of assassinations that happened the past few years?

I don't see why our own CIA, CSIS, etc. don't organize, train and protect these people.

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

It's much likely that certain officers knew about this in good time. But that doesn't have to mean that ordinary privates were aware of what was about to happen.

 

This is first page of company personnel list and here pointed Company HQ, among signed not only officers and warrant officers, but also sergeants and even two soldiers - #9 radio-orerator (private) and #11 BMP-gunner (yefreytor). I sure, on other pages you can see signs of all privates too.   

[DesertFox]

[BeondTheGrave]

edit: I guess now I'm the one spreading fake news!

Edited March 3, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[akd]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Was it the Lukoil exec who killed himself a few days ago? Or Rosneft? 

That was false.

Edited March 3, 2022 by akd

[Lethaface]

24 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Liberal" russians too?

See aforementioned Sobchak escaping Russia.

Before the full scale war of 24.02 she fully supported the russian invasion, calling our government a "regime fighting its own people" and mentioning Crimea being a russian territory on multiple occasions.

And now she's running because an iron curtain is falling.

I have doubts that a well known "liberal" politician with a huge audience didn't know what was really going on and projected her far right position onto the masses because she listened to state propaganda.

so probably that's example of a rotten apple, or maybe it was once good apple but too long to close to rotten and it has spread.

[BeondTheGrave]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

That was false.

Thx, I edited the post. My bad. 

[kraze]

On topic of russian soldiers not knowing where they were going.

A document where they agree to fight on foreign soil, 3 days before the invasion, from private to officer

Edited March 3, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Fragments of Russian missile, shot downed over Kyiv today

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Was it the Lukoil exec who killed himself a few days ago? Or Rosneft? 

I'm still hopeful that the beginning of the end of the Putin regime will happen this week.  The signs are starting to show up even to our eyes, which is significant because the decisions are being made by only a few people and in private.

Kraze is correct about the very low chances of a bottom up revolution.  At best we might have a bottom up protest on a scale that is significant enough for some alignment of oligarchs, military, and security services to shift support to a Putin alternative.  In this case the protests would be the straw that breaks the camel's back, not the primary reason for it.

 

The irony here is that Russia is claiming that Ukraine needs to be Nazified, when in fact it is Russia that needs it.  The population has been programmed to comply with, and even support, an autocratic state.  Most recently a Fascist autocratic state.  Unlike the western provinces of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries, after things collapsed in 1991 the primary undercurrent of all Russian governments was to reconstruct a better autocracy, not seek a true democratic society.  Without a significant amount of strings attached to lifting sanctions and/or providing economic aid, a post Putin Russia will quickly be just as bad an actor as the previous ones.

Steve

[sburke]

129 posts is what I wake up to this morning?  Geez  Can we stop bashing Russians?  Not that they don't deserve it.  I just had too many posts to get to those that were specifically related to combat events.  

[DesertFox]

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm still hopeful that the beginning of the end of the Putin regime will happen this week.  The signs are starting to show up even to our eyes, which is significant because the decisions are being made by only a few people and in private.

Its a push pull. Putin can do a lot to keep the people and the elite in line. More against the people, IMO, but nevertheless. Putin has to worry about a knife in his back for sure and his control will seriously be tested here in the coming weeks I think. But also every oligarch has to also worry that Putin's boys are after their tea bags. Lets just say I think bottled water sales in Moscow have gone up in the last few days. We can see in Russian history two examples of this exact struggle and the two ways it can go. First in 1989, Gorbachev totally failed (if he even tried) to break up the forces that were moving against him in Moscow. Stalin, through his entirely life, did the exact opposite. Nobody, absolutely nobody, could out play the boss. 

If Putin survives all this and dies in office (naturally), and he well might, I think it would say a lot about his abilities as an operator. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

Emmanuel Macron thinks "the worst is yet to come" after his exchange with Putin, "very determined", according to the Elysée
The French head of state thinks "the worst is in" Ukraine after his exchange with Vladimir Putin, who expressed "his very great determination" to continue his offensive, whose goal is "to take control" from all over the country, according to the Elysée.

During an hour and a half telephone discussion at his request, the Russian president assured his French counterpart that the Russian army operation was developing "according to the plan" planned by Moscow and that it would " get worse" if the Ukrainians did not accept its terms, the French presidency said. "President [Macron's] anticipation is that the worst is yet to come given what President Putin has told him," according to the Elysee.

From "Le Monde"

A hundred cruise missiles and this excuse for an army will run all the way to the Urals. Someone should mention that to Putin.

[sburke]

More on the impact of western sanctions spreading throughout Russian financial eco system

Russian Banker’s London Broker Faces Collapse on Russia Ties (msn.com)

[theforger]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

discussion at his request,

I think that could be significant, Putin requested the meeting.

[Aragorn2002]

Question. How should the 'new' NATO look like. How much and which kind of troops do we need and where should they be stationed? Do we for example have to invest in tanks again (I think yes, but I would like to hear that from the experts on this forum)? In what kind of weaponry/units has to be invested most?

Edited March 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Baneman]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

...
The French head of state thinks "the worst is in" Ukraine after his exchange with Vladimir Putin, who expressed "his very great determination" to continue his offensive, whose goal is "to take control" from all over the country, according to the Elysée.

During an hour and a half telephone discussion at his request, the Russian president assured his French counterpart that the Russian army operation was developing "according to the plan" planned by Moscow and that it would " get worse" if the Ukrainians did not accept its terms, ...

I wonder how much of that determination is based on being told what he wants to hear vs reality ?
I guess you'd ensure you're properly up to date, but given how it seems that the initial premises for kicking this off were wildly unrealistic ... you have to wonder.

To be honest, the vibe/feel I get for all the Russian actions is the Japanese High Command in WWII who ended up believing their own propaganda. They were ok putting out wildly optimistic reports, but somehow failed to realise that every level below them was doing it too.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Baneman

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

More on the impact of western sanctions spreading throughout Russian financial eco system

Russian Banker’s London Broker Faces Collapse on Russia Ties (msn.com)

And here's another one I heard on the radio.  A couple of hours ago Lloyd's of London is going to cut Russians off from insurance policies.  Now folks, you might wonder what difference that makes.  As someone that has some experience with the way insurance is used and required, the news immediately triggered a smile

Insurance is not something that can be screwed around with when talking about industrial scale operations.  No ship will get into a port without insurance.  No plane can land at an airport without insurance.  No business is going to purchase goods from Russia unless they are insured for safe delivery.  Business transactions themselves often require some form of insurance. Etc.

Russian companies getting cut off from insurance options, especially gold standard ones like Lloyd's, is just going to make things all the more difficult for whatever Russian stuff isn't already caught up by sanctions.

Here's just one article about it:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/russian-planes-and-rockets-risk-being-grounded-by-lloyds-of-london-ban/ar-AAUyYo3

Steve

[akd]

Interview with a Russian sociologist recently hospitalized for protesting:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/02/why-no-mass-protests-in-russia

[Battlefront.com]

Man, I wish we hadn't banned so many Russian trolls.  It would be fun to ask them where are all those Armata tanks we hear so much about over the last 8 years.  Back in 2014 we were told that all Russia's front line tank units would have them and we in the West should pee in our trousers.  I guess the few that were built are still not viewed as ready for combat.  I mean real combat, not Red Square Parade duty

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Man, I wish we hadn't banned so many Russian trolls.  It would be fun to ask them where are all those Armata tanks we hear so much about over the last 8 years.  Back in 2014 we were told that all Russia's front line tank units would have them and we in the West should pee in our trousers.  I guess the few that were built are still not viewed as ready for combat.  I mean real combat, not Red Square Parade duty

Steve

they probably broke down on the way to their staging areas.