How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[AlexUK]

Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

[akd]

1 minute ago, AlexUK said:

commitment to neutrality.

Commitment to future salami slicing.

[db_zero]

The Ukrainian government announced any captured Russian equipment will not be required to be reported for tax purposes…

[Sarjen]

1 minute ago, AlexUK said:

Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

He will go demilitarization, Donbas, Crimea and the whole southern cities with access to the Black Sea to ensure that his brother-nation can't develop in any economic direction. He needs more than he has now or he lost face with a nation under heaviest economic pressure and unfriendly comrades at home. A compromise is for him a loss.

[__Yossarian0815[jby]]

5 hours ago, kraze said:

Even talking languages - how come ukrainians, belarusians, poles and czechs mostly understand each other without vocabulary - but russians understand nobody?

If we were the same and closely connected - wouldn't it make sense for languages to be similar? But russians instead spent 300 years trying to eradicate slavic languages of Ukraine and Belarus.

During the yugoslav wars in the 90s the serbs/croats/bosnians tried to explain to anybody who was listening that they they spoke totally different languages and had irreconcilable cultural differences. 2 Generations later not so much.

Read wikipedia on slavic languages and how they are related.

 

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, rocketman said:

I haven't followed this thread yet and won't read through the 100 pages, so forgive me if this has been asked before: Has Ukraine released any figures for number of captured POWs? That could be a good indicator of the fighting morale, or lack thereof, of the Russian forces.

Official Ukrainian Armed Forces numbers are put out at least once a day on their Facebook Page:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

For some reason the numbers are inconsistently categorized.  Today's lacks POW number, one of the postings in the past two days lacked KIA number.  Here's this morning's report:

The total estimated losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 02.03 were:

Personnel - 5840 persons

planes / aircraft-30 od,

helicopters - 31 od,

tanks , to 211,

Combat Armored Machines / APV / 862,

artillery systems- 85,

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 9,

RSV / MLRS - 40,

pmm tank / fuel tanks - 60,

UAV operational and tactical level - 3,

Light speedboats - 2 units,

Automotive / Vehicles - 355.

The data is clearing up. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of combat. Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

 

 

I don't have time to look up the last POW count, but it was nearing 300.  I'm guessing that is either about right or low.  We've probably seen anecdotal video of at least 100.

 

Steve

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

 Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

He already has started this policy. It wont work out for him. Konotop here:

 

 

[rocketman]

Thanks, that looks like the the list BBC uses in abbreviated form. Though they put APVs as "Armored Patrol Vehicles" which to me seems to miss APCs and such.

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, AlexUK said:

Given the supposedly planned amphibious landing, I wonder if the Western countries are supplying anti ship missiles. 

A completely wild thought, what would a javelin do to a landing craft? 

Sink it! well offshore. One of many reasons why an amphibious invasion of Taiwan remains an extraordinarily risky undertaking.

 

[melm]

20 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

I'm bothered by this thought too. What if Putin surround Kyiv and ask the citizens to leave, otherwise, he'll flatten the city to occupy? What can citizens do? Horrible. I just feel so helpless.

[riptides]

Anyone see the ship burning off Odesa? I lost track of the string in the news and no one could ID it anyway.

Also, giving ultimatums to cities, where does this leave the EU and NATO in their positioning for upping their involvement? If interdiction of supplies starts does this not escalate the situation for a more forceful response?

Quote

 

 

[keas66]

Basically fear of  escalation is Putin's  major trump card  here which if he is able to manage the conflict on ground without his military collapsing/revolting - will allow him complete freedom of action on the ground with no fear of intervention. The only way out of this without escalation  is if the Ukrainians are able to hang on and repulse the Russian invaders or  if somehow his military collapses .

The West/Nato will not have the will to force a direct on ground confrontation with Putin  .  The Ukraine will be sacrificed to allow things to carry on as normal - In a few months stock market  carries on and we get back to worrying about other things  .

I can't see anything changing this unless the West grow some  and decide to confront Putin regardless of the Putin's threats about Nuclear escalation .

Anyway this goes the Ukraine is going to suffer all the costs in blood and destruction .

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, melm said:

I'm bothered by this thought too. What if Putin surround Kyiv and ask the citizens to leave...

He has already done that.  In his mind he's giving Ukrainians a legitimate choice and if they stay and die it's not his fault.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

28 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left. 

And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter.... 

Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish). 

[Bulletpoint]

How would NATO realistically respond if Putin made a direct threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

[Baneman]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

How would NATO realistically respond if Putin made a direct threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

You'd have to wonder how Russians ( in the army and in the political circle ) would respond if Putin threatens to nuke their "brothers" because they just. wont. listen.

There's got to be more than a few that would realise that isn't any kind of rational act - even if Putin's cracked up a bit, they can't all go mad at the same time. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Yep that is the same as earlier. However this Pantsir isnt (wasnt) cheap either.

 

 

2 hours ago, Baneman said:

I cannot get my head around the value of the equipment the Russian Army is just throwing away !

Just that Tunguska and Tor-M2 together have to be $30 million plus  
( I assume the Tor-M2 DesertFox showed being towed is the one we saw a still of earlier ... because if they've captured 2 my head will explode ).

 

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Yep that is the same as earlier. However this Pantsir isnt (wasnt) cheap either.

 

Oh dear, is Baneman ok?

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Baneman said:

You'd have to wonder how Russians ( in the army and in the political circle ) would respond if Putin threatens to nuke their "brothers" because they just. wont. listen.

There's got to be more than a few that would realise that isn't any kind of rational act - even if Putin's cracked up a bit, they can't all go mad at the same time. 

Hopefully. But he's already bombing Ukrainian cities indiscriminately with every weapon he has - explosives, thermobaric, cluster bombs..

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

How would NATO realistically respond if Putin made a direct threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

No one could possible know the answer to that question. There is no 'realistic' response because its not a realistic scenario. It would be so unprecedented, so unlikely, as to make a response difficult. In terms of the threat itself, NATO would probably just wag its finger. Its the Euro-American style, after all. Condemn the action in a strongly worded statement and slap another sanction on Putin and his Chief of Nuclear forces.

If a weapon were actually employed? Who knows. Everything on the table at that point. Total Pandora's Box situation. Maybe NATO intervene, or retaliates, or is paralyzed and fails to react, or strikes Russia asymmetrically. A single nuclear strike would be a hard thing for the other nuclear states to respond to. There is no other in-kind retaliation that would equal the use of a nuclear weapon except the use of another nuclear weapon, which starts the escalatory spiral. 

But using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine would probably be the end of the war honestly. Keep in mind that the atom bomb has only been used twice, and at the end of probably the most bitter and violent war in human history. Putin would become the greatest mass murderer since Hitler, and if a general didn't give him a new breathing hole first, the people surely would. Its just not something people will tolerate. TBH I just dont really see it happening. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Kinophile]

Are there any good military podcasts watching and analysing the current status of the war?

[Baneman]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Oh dear, is Baneman ok?

Head exploded in a good way ! 

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Hopefully. But he's already bombing Ukrainian cities indiscriminately with every weapon he has - explosives, thermobaric, cluster bombs..

True, but his circle/top brass are used to that. That's normal for them. 
Bringing in nukes is a whole different level - especially when there is clearly no actual threat of Ukrainian or any other forces invading Russia.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Baneman

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Are there any good military podcasts watching and analysing the current status of the war?

Someone steered me to this one.  I keep getting interrupted while watching it, but the half I've seen so far is quite good.  Also, the analyst on the left is wearing a T shirt that says "I'm married to a Ukrainian - Nothing Scares Me!"

 

[db_zero]

Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.

One other possibility is Putin somehow gets deposed. Not likely, but if it did happen, then what would the Russians next move be? Withdraw or negotiated partition?

Edited March 2, 2022 by db_zero

[AlexUK]

19 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left. 

And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter.... 

Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish). 

Yes, and what abvout strategic bomber fleet if they do manage to strike the artillery. 

[dan/california]

If Putin is deposed his successors will withdraw/surrender instantly. There are two reasons for this. The whole point would be to get the sanctions lifted, and they would be far more interested fighting to control Russia than Ukraine at that point.