How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

36 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Why do people keep referring to this rocket launcher as some kind of nuke? The videos I've seen of it firing show it firing a barrage of rockets, yes... but nothing like a nuclear weapon. Nothing that will level a city in one go.

In some circles weapons like this could be considered something of a WMD.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Don't the Russians have something like 31.000 tanks and other armored vehicles? 

Running armored vehicles is a MUCH smaller number. All evidence is that they are BARELY maintaining their frontline stuff. I strongly suspect many of the less active reserves are just shells with the expensive bits missing, and the engines seized solid with rust.

 

[db_zero]

Aside from increased defense spending, I think the whole issue of BMD gets re-visited after all this Russian nuclear sabre-rattling.

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, db_zero said:

In some circles weapons like this could be considered something of a WMD.

There's no distinction between weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons then. The TOS is just a big rocket launcher, but people hype it up to mythical levels.

Just today, I heard some hosts on a BBC podcast talk about Russia's "flamethrower weapon that can make everything within three kilometres catch fire".

Edited February 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Running armored vehicles is a MUCH smaller number. All evidence is that they are BARELY maintaining their frontline stuff. I strongly suspect many of the less active reserves are just shells with the expensive bits missing, and the engines seized solid with rust.

 

When Russia was pumping "captured Ukrainian tanks" into the Donbas early in the first invasion, they ran out of T-64s (what Ukraine mostly used in the east at the time) and had to start sending in stripped down T-72s (which were all in the west of the country at the time).  So any inventory count that includes T-64s should have them zeroed out.  Anything older than that also.

Steve

[akd]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this.

Hey AKD, remember that video you posted of a long trainload of Russian forces headed north in Belarus?  I'm wondering if that was being positioned as a tripwire force somewhere along the border with either Poland or Lithuania and/or to make NATO nervous?

Steve

 

It was in Brest, so could stay on border in that area, go north along polish border or go south to Ukrainian border.  I would suspect the latter is most likely.

[Haiduk]

Official MoD statistic about missile strikes day by day. "X"  should be correctly translated like "Kh". 24th Feb as minimum one Kh-31 antiradar missile was launced and fell in Kyiv.

[akd]

45 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Sometimes I think I am seeing a redo of the Winter War. The Finnish Ukrainians stop cold the incredibly incapable Russian juggernaut, then it piles more and more brute force, so it finally "wins". It is not the victory they seeked (annexing Finland/Ukraina) at all, but in the end they avoid a clear military defeat. On the other hand it is clear the Soviets had the strenght to break the Mannerheim line in the end, but I have a feeling the Russians has not enought brute force to do the same this time. I hope so.

If I was Putin, I would do a supreme effort to encircle Kiev and perhaps Kharvov and move a force to Lviv/Lvov/Lemberg from Brest with lots of supply support to ensure that this timne the force can reach its objetive. I am very esceptic that NATO would oppose that move. If the Russian force couldn't reach Lviv, the new front would streech the Ucranian forces really thin, so it would eventually break somewhere.

The Soviets had a system that could use people this way.  Russia today does not.

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the point that keeps getting skipped over by the Putin apologists.  What has been going on for the last 8 years in the Donbas had NOTHING TO DO WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION in any meaningful way.  This was all done by Russia for Russian interests.  The locals in the Donbas that were genuinely pro Russia was just a little icing on the cake.,

The Ukrainian election data for the last 3 elections does not support this view. Clearly the data shows the west of Ukraine votes for a western leaning candidates and the east votes for an eastern leaning candidates. Why don't we do what we did in Serbia and let em all have an independence vote(also happened in Scotland m8). Would that not be the most democratic thing to do?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh I guarantee the military planners have been driven nuts trying to figure that one out.  How much is just enough without driving public opinion into Putins arms?  It probably helped that Putin went all "hey I got nukes" because more force appears defensive now and not offensive.  That said, no way Putin isn't watch the other borders, he is ex-KGB and one paranoid SOB, no way he lived this long without being one.  

The border he needs to watch is in the far east, His "friend" Xi might decide since Russian army is over committed and on fire in Ukraine it is a great time take Siberia into "protective custody", and more or less double the size of China. It is isn't like Putin has any friends left.

Edited February 28, 2022 by dan/california
punctuation

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is isn't like Putin has any friends left.

He has a very large nuclear family.

Also, why would China ever go to war over Siberia of all places?

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, keas66 said:

I am becoming  increasingly outraged at what I am seeing  .  Its making my blood boil in fact  . Hard to try and view this naked aggression by Russia with a neutral outlook .

No one in this thread has suggested that you “must” maintain a neutral viewpoint, just that your comments be related to the conflict at hand, and that if you accuse, you provide incontrovertible proof of your accusations. What we all must remember is the Andy a few posters on this forum are actually on either side in the war zone. Therefore our “suggestions, rants, comments, etc.” mean absolutely nothing from a practical point of view. Please try to keep that in mind.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

He has a very large nuclear family.

Also, why would China ever go to war over Siberia of all places?

There's (black) gold in them there hills (forests). Place is lousy with strategic resources.

Getting at them can be hard on people and equipment though.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, womble said:

There's (black) gold in them there hills (forests). Place is lousy with strategic resources.

Getting at them can be hard on people and equipment though.

Xi is not known for sentimentality, and their cites In northern China you have never even heard of with more people than the entire Russian far east.

[Fernando]

25 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

When I was studying Spanish (Castilian) in high school (secondary school in some countries),I learned a poem by a Spanish poet. As it was about 54 or 55 years ago, I don’t remember the poet’s name, or even if it was written before the Franco regime. I ask in advance that Spanish speakers forgive any spelling or syntax errors. The poem, and it’s translation goes like this; “En esta Mundo tratador, nada es verdad ni mentido. Todo es la color del crystal buscamos habias.” “In this traitor world, nothing is truth nor lie. All is the color of the glasses through you look. Additionally, please look at the number 6. Remember that from a different perspective or point of view, it might also be a 9.

 

please keep those things in mind when you post, and provide actual proof from a known, reliable source when making accusations on either side of the argument.

The poem is from Ramón de Campoamor. It has become a saying in Spanish "En este mundo traidor, nada es verdad, ni es mentira. Todo es según el color del cristal con que se mira" (In this treacherous world, nothing is true, nor is it a lie. Everything is according to the color of the glass with which you look through)

[Baneman]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The border he needs to watch is in the far east, His "friend" Xi might decide since Russian army is over committed and on fire in Ukraine it is a great time take Siberia into "protective custody", and more or less double the size of China. It is isn't like Putin has any friends left.

I'm wondering in similar fashion how safe Lukashenko is with some of his army being deployed to Ukraine and no Russian troops available to bail him out again if the population decide they'd rather see the back of him.

 

( "if the population decide they'd rather see the back of him." - of course, that would never happen without the "West" organising a coup and Soros/Bill Gates/other boogeyman financing it. Because no population ever just decided they were fed up with a corrupt leader by themselves... )

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The Ukrainian election data for the last 3 elections does not support this view. Clearly the data shows the west of Ukraine votes for a western leaning candidates and the east votes for an eastern leaning candidates. Why don't we do what we did in Serbia and let em all have an independence vote(also happened in Scotland m8). Would that not be the most democratic thing to do?

That is a decision for Ukraine to make, not Russia or anyone else.  The United Kingdom had a mechanism for this sort of thing to take place and followed a process.  There are folks out here in California who'd like to take N California, parts of Oregon and Washington state and form something new just because they represent too small a minority to impact California politics for better or worse.

[Pelican Pal]

2 minutes ago, Baneman said:

I'm wondering in similar fashion how safe Lukashenko is with some of his army being deployed to Ukraine and no Russian troops available to bail him out again if the population decide they'd rather see the back of him.

AFAIK none of their troops are across the border yet? I strongly suspect that outside of maybe some select troops the Belarusian army will sit on their hands. Possibly at the border but sitting on their hands nonetheless. 

Admittedly, I am not fantastically informed of Belarusian internal politics but I get the feeling the population would be less than thrilled if there was a large commitment of troops alongside large numbers of casualties.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Holien said:

The interview was in a rural village wooden buildings straight out of WW2 titles I am surprised they didn't have a minder stop the report.

The construction of the buildings really doesn’t really matter, and shouldn’t be an indicator. My wife and I took a two week Baltic cruise in 1990. One of our stops (two or three days), was in Leningrad. We toured the city, Peter the Great’s summer palace, the Hermitage, etc. one of the things that most stood out to us, was that even though Leningrad was a beautiful city, much of the surrounding areas, and in fact large sections of Leningrad, struck me as 17th or 18th century style construction. In fact there were blocks in the city that were barren with no houses. Our guide told us that was due to many residents s5ill using wood to heat and cook, so fire was a real danger.

[Geoff-Ludumpress]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

That is a decision for Ukraine to make, not Russia or anyone else. 

That's not the role (historical examples) that NATO and EU took in the Yugoslavia etc., they worked to facilitate elections and protect civilians  NOT handing out weapons which will lead to escalation. Also the Ukrainian govt. had made (signed) a peace agreement, called 'Minsk agreement' which they were not implementing. I don't know many experts in this field who are surprised at where we are now. The only people who are shocked are the public cos they've had to stop watching football.

[Haiduk]

Destroyed and abandoned Russian fuel&supply convoy near Semenivka, Kharkiv oblast. Locals are plundering free diesel

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

That's not the role (historical examples) that NATO and EU took in the Yugoslavia etc., they worked to facilitate elections and protect civilians  NOT handing out weapons which will lead to escalation. Also the Ukrainian govt. had made (signed) a peace agreement, called 'Minsk agreement' which they were not implementing. I don't know many experts in this field who are surprised at where we are now. The only people who are shocked are the public cos they've had to stop watching football.

Yugoslavia was a failed state.  They also were not being attacked by another country.  As to the Minsk agreement, that followed an illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory when Ukraine was not in a position to fight.  I don't think you want to rehash the 2014/5 actions.  I guarantee it won't go well on this forum.  Better to stick with current events.

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

There's no distinction between weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons then. The TOS is just a big rocket launcher, but people hype it up to mythical levels.

Just today, I heard some hosts on a BBC podcast talk about Russia's "flamethrower weapon that can make everything within three kilometres catch fire".

The shelling already going on in urban areas is already causing outrage. Using a weapon that is an area weapon and has the potential to indiscriminately kill a lot of civilians in a particularly gruesome way is going to really outrage people. I'm not sure if hiding in a basement which would normally offer a good degree of protection from an artillery shell or missile would offer protection from a weapon that has significant heat and over pressure effects in addition to the large blast.

I know a lot of people are taking shelter in the subway system. If batteries of TOS1s were used on the subway entrances I'm not sure if the subways would offer a high degree of protection. If not and hundreds or thousands die because the air was sucked out of their lungs you're going to see some real international outrage.

If I'm not mistaken flamethrowers have been banned as are cluster bombs-although I don't think molotov cocktails which can incinerate people are not banned.

I just saw an article-Ukraine has made a complaint that Russia used a “vacuum bomb” that is banned. Don’t know if they were referring to thecTOS1 or something else.

Edited February 28, 2022 by db_zero

[Splinty]

2 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Hi everyone. Nikita here.

I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.

1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.

2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.

3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

Good luck to you. Keep your head down and your eyes open.

[BletchleyGeek]

46 minutes ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The Ukrainian election data for the last 3 elections does not support this view. Clearly the data shows the west of Ukraine votes for a western leaning candidates and the east votes for an eastern leaning candidates. Why don't we do what we did in Serbia and let em all have an independence vote(also happened in Scotland m8). Would that not be the most democratic thing to do?

A link to the data of the 2019 election from Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election

The only region where the "pro-Russian" part called "Opposition Party - For Life" got over 50% votes was the northern Donetsk region. Generally speaking, turnout is like 10-15% lower than in most EU countries.